Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 2

[Corby78]

So you think they created the Blue Jackets hitting 4 posts, including 1 in OT? They created Neal hitting the post on a wide open net?

I’m so sick of this. We hit posts too. We had fake penalties against us and bounces go against us. It goes both ways, but the better you play and the more effort you give the more you can capitalize on your chances and recover from theirs. People need to stop counting posts and claiming you win by luck.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’m so sick of this. We hit posts too. We had fake penalties against us and bounces go against us. It goes both ways, but the better you play and the more effort you give the more you can capitalize on your chances and recover from theirs. People need to stop counting posts and claiming you win by luck.

Boom!

 

[Sam Spade]

Ovechkin can't touch Lemieux.

He does have freakish durability though, so provided he doesn't return to Dynamo Moscow for a few years, he can maybe beat Gretzky's goal record.

I said of players I grew up watching the best were Gretzky and now Ovechkin.
Lemieux was never in the lineup so I never watched him. He only played 915 games spread out over 17 seasons, that averages out to 53 games a season.

I also don't think Ovechkin will come close to Gretzky in goals, MAYBE if he stays healthy he gets 800, and that is a big maybe. In my mind he will be the second greatest goal scorer of all time if he can hit 800.

 

[HTFN]

If luck is something you create for yourself in the moment, then it shouldn't be forgotten that there's another team out there trying to create their own as well. How well your efforts pan out against theirs is, well, luck. Isn't it?

The test between the strong and the weak is in asking them how much of their success (or failure) was due to that luck. Winners know luck can be fickle, and focus on the things they control. Losers know that luck is fickle, and hope that next time that shot off the post will go in.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I’m so sick of this. We hit posts too. We had fake penalties against us and bounces go against us. It goes both ways, but the better you play and the more effort you give the more you can capitalize on your chances and recover from theirs. People need to stop counting posts and claiming you win by luck.

Lighten up, Francis. You're so sick of what? Sick of people pointing out that there is randomness in sport -- with hockey being the sport that has the most randomness -- and that it plays a factor in the results? That's upsetting to you? Just can't quite accept that not everything can be controlled, eh?

No one is saying the Caps didn't earn this or that they didn't play well. No one is enjoying this any less because they got a bounce or two their way that seemingly didn't go their way in the past. People are just pointing out that it appears they had a little more good fortune this year than in yesteryear.

 

[895]

I said of players I grew up watching the best were Gretzky and now Ovechkin.
Lemieux was never in the lineup so I never watched him. He only played 915 games spread out over 17 seasons, that averages out to 53 games a season.

I also don't think Ovechkin will come close to Gretzky in goals, MAYBE if he stays healthy he gets 800, and that is a big maybe. In my mind he will be the second greatest goal scorer of all time if he can hit 800.

I think if Ovechkin made it his career ambition to eclipse Gretzky he could. It would require him to dedicate himself to fitness the way Selanne and Jagr did though.

I don't even think he gets to 800. I think he wants to play for Dynamo while still elite.

 

[txpd]

I’m so sick of this. We hit posts too. We had fake penalties against us and bounces go against us. It goes both ways, but the better you play and the more effort you give the more you can capitalize on your chances and recover from theirs. People need to stop counting posts and claiming you win by luck.

Reality is that most posts hit the goalie if the are on the net. Missing a wide open net is just choking. Its not bad luck.

A post or a crossbar is close but no cigar. Bad luck is having a shot hit the handle of the goalie stick.

 

[txpd]

I think if Ovechkin made it his career ambition to eclipse Gretzky he could. It would require him to dedicate himself to fitness the way Selanne and Jagr did though.

I don't even think he gets to 800. I think he wants to play for Dynamo while still elite.

Nah...he plays in the nhl til he is 40

 

[Portable Mink]

Ovi has bought into American life more than most Russians I’ve seen

 

[TRASHCAT]

Iim sure ovi had seen kovi and jagr go back to the khl and then go lol nope

 

[Sam Spade]

I don't even think he gets to 800. I think he wants to play for Dynamo while still elite.

I agree with this for sure, now that he has the Cup I believe it even more.

Combine that with the fact that he probably wants to raise his child in Russia, which he has every right to do, I think he leaves when his contract is up.

 

[Raikkonen]

Why would Ovi leave to play for Dynamo? There is no sense to do that. He already played some games for them.

By the time his contract is up he should be in 700s already. That's kinda close to 800. And the decision will be made around that time. Hopefully, no lockout again.

 

[895]

1) He's said he will return to Dynamo.

https://www.bardown.com/a-new-ovech...ill-end-sooner-than-anyone-expected-1.1125646

2) If the NHL doesn't commit to going to the Olympics, playing in the KHL is the easy way around that. With the cup win, Olympic Gold is the only thing he doesn't have.

 

[Corby78]

Lighten up, Francis. You're so sick of what? Sick of people pointing out that there is randomness in sport -- with hockey being the sport that has the most randomness -- and that it plays a factor in the results? That's upsetting to you? Just can't quite accept that not everything can be controlled, eh?

No one is saying the Caps didn't earn this or that they didn't play well. No one is enjoying this any less because they got a bounce or two their way that seemingly didn't go their way in the past. People are just pointing out that it appears they had a little more good fortune this year than in yesteryear.

I never said random events weren’t a part of hockey or sports, in fact I said the opposite. What I’m sick of is people taking the stance that we didn’t win last year because we were unlucky and we won this year because the luck finally turned our way. Then they hand pick a couple events over a 24 game playoff run to try and make that point. You don’t win 7 game series, much less 4 in a row, by luck.

And if you took this as a shot against you, please don’t. Yours was just the last post in the subject. I didn’t go back through the entire thread to see who said exactly what.

 

[stanleycaps18]

If Ovi played during the Gretzky era, I have no doubt he would be in the same league of goal totals. I mean, Dennis Maruk scored over 50 for the Caps during those years.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I encourage the “luck truthers”to read up on some studies.


The Science Of Luck

Finding money on the street may seem like a lucky break, but it might be more accurate to thank yourself.


How to become luckier, according to science

1. Maximize opportunities: Keep trying new things.
2. Listen to hunches: Especially if it's an area where you have some experience, trust your intuition.
3. Expect good fortune: Be an optimist. A little delusion can be good.
4. Turn bad luck into good: Don't dwell on the bad. Look at the big picture.

These are things an individual or a group of individuals (see TEAM) can control themselves to make themselves “luckier”.

http://richardwiseman.com/resources/The_Luck_Factor.pdf

Lucky people generate their own good fortune via four basic principles. They are skilled at creating and noticing chance opportunities, make lucky decisions by listening to their intuition, create self-fulfilling prophesies via positive expectations, and adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad luck into good.

 

[kicksavedave]

This you guy are gone have to wait longer than 2028. Pretty sure they are having a girl

I stand firmly by my original statement. Would not surprise me to see Ovi's "offspring" win a Conn Smythe...


If she's a girl, she may need until she's 12 or so.

 

[kicksavedave]

If luck is something you create for yourself in the moment, then it shouldn't be forgotten that there's another team out there trying to create their own as well. How well your efforts pan out against theirs is, well, luck. Isn't it?

The test between the strong and the weak is in asking them how much of their success (or failure) was due to that luck. Winners know luck can be fickle, and focus on the things they control. Losers know that luck is fickle, and hope that next time that shot off the post will go in.

Um, no, its not, especially not over any long term like a Stanley Cup playoffs. How your efforts pan out against your opponent is hundreds of times more related to how much more rigorously you have prepared for this battle, not just this week, but the whole season and in fact your whole life.

Sure, in one overtime session luck can play a factor, and with the Caps this post season at times it did. But over 4 long series, the lucky breaks even out and the preparation, which manifests itself in skill and other ways, wins out.

When you're better than your opponent, you may seem to get more lucky breaks, but often times you make them happen. And when you are better than your opponent, you overcome unlucky breaks, by being better than your opponent over the long haul. And so those unlucky breaks against you get forgotten quickly.

 

[HTFN]

Um, no, its not, especially not over any long term like a Stanley Cup playoffs. How your efforts pan out against your opponent is hundreds of times more related to how much more rigorously you have prepared for this battle, not just this week, but the whole season and in fact your whole life.

Sure, in one overtime session luck can play a factor, and with the Caps this post season at times it did. But over 4 long series, the lucky breaks even out and the preparation, which manifests itself in skill and other ways, wins out.

When you're better than your opponent, you may seem to get more lucky breaks, but often times you make them happen. And when you are better than your opponent, you overcome unlucky breaks, by being better than your opponent over the long haul. And so those unlucky breaks against you get forgotten quickly.

I'm not sure, but I think we're saying roughly the same thing. It's possible that I wasn't as clear as I meant to be earlier. "Creating your own luck" is shorthand for working diligently on the things that you can control. Better teams/winners don't tend to shrug their shoulders and say they "got lucky" because they know they worked hard to be where they are. People waiting for luck to "swing their way" will often only see that result against other teams with a similar mindset.

This applies to "lucky" shots, rebounds, etc., but even with all of that sometimes a puck just scoots off the boards and winds up in the slot for no reason. That's all down to the regular kind of luck, and you just need to roll with the punches on those. Good teams will by moving on, bad teams won't by lingering and wishing it were otherwise.

 

[g00n]

Lighten up, Francis. You're so sick of what? Sick of people pointing out that there is randomness in sport -- with hockey being the sport that has the most randomness -- and that it plays a factor in the results? That's upsetting to you? Just can't quite accept that not everything can be controlled, eh?

No one is saying the Caps didn't earn this or that they didn't play well. No one is enjoying this any less because they got a bounce or two their way that seemingly didn't go their way in the past. People are just pointing out that it appears they had a little more good fortune this year than in yesteryear.

The guy who brought it up is saying that. You may not be but he is.

 

[895]

The guy who brought it up is saying that. You may not be but he is.

Uh no I'm not.

 

[g00n]

Uh no I'm not.

You're not? What does this mean:

Is it too reductionist to say they won this year because they were lucky and they lost previous years because they were unlucky?

Because that's how I truly feel.

Sports fandom and sports journalism is assigning narratives to an RNG. Hockey moreso than any other sport. This isn't the NBA.

There it is right there. They won because of luck, and lost previous years because of luck. I don't see anything about anything else. In fact, you appear to address those other factors as "narratives" attached to randomness (via random number generator).

Did you mean something else but have let everyone argue for 100 posts over 3 days anyway?

 

[txpd]

1) He's said he will return to Dynamo.

https://www.bardown.com/a-new-ovech...ill-end-sooner-than-anyone-expected-1.1125646

2) If the NHL doesn't commit to going to the Olympics, playing in the KHL is the easy way around that. With the cup win, Olympic Gold is the only thing he doesn't have.

That is a pr quote. He is telling the home fans he will think about it. He also said this past season that he wishes he had signed a longer contract wit the Capitals.

 

[Ridley Simon]

You're not? What does this mean:



There it is right there. They won because of luck, and lost previous years because of luck. I don't see anything about anything else. In fact, you appear to address those other factors as "narratives" attached to randomness (via random number generator).

Did you mean something else but have let everyone argue for 100 posts over 3 days anyway?

Oh. Welp. Uhhhhh.

 

[895]

You're not? What does this mean:



There it is right there. They won because of luck, and lost previous years because of luck. I don't see anything about anything else. In fact, you appear to address those other factors as "narratives" attached to randomness (via random number generator).

Did you mean something else but have let everyone argue for 100 posts over 3 days anyway?

How on earth is saying that they were lucky this year and unlucky other years the same thing as saying they didn't earn it or that I'm not enjoying the cup win?

Pretty big reach.