Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 2

[peterthegreat12]

Or it could be the reason that it's not done is cause gmbm wont come down from 4 years. All it says is that they have explored more then 4 years. Theyve probably explored one year deals, two year deals etc

Its unlikely that money is the hold up (unless gmbm is really shorting him) so its the years again

Again, no one in the know has said that Wilson's camp doesn't want a long deal. People speculated that was the case.

 

[HunterSThompson]

Again, no one in the know has said that Wilson's camp doesn't want a long deal. People speculated that was the case.

In fact, there is this:

 

[RandyHolt]

My latest prediction is 3.75M x 5

 

[Portable Mink]

ill go 4m x 6

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Is it too reductionist to say they won this year because they were lucky and they lost previous years because they were unlucky?

Because that's how I truly feel.

Sports fandom and sports journalism is assigning narratives to an RNG. Hockey moreso than any other sport. This isn't the NBA.

Not at all. Hockey is the sport with the most randomness. That's why it's so hard to win... because the best team doesn't always win. You can do almost everything right and still lose. You can dominate possession and the run of play and still lose 4 times out of 7 in a series. It's honestly why the Caps chokejobs hurt so much because you figured luck had to swing in their favor at some point, and this year it did.

 

[g00n]

Not at all. Hockey is the sport with the most randomness. That's why it's so hard to win... because the best team doesn't always win. You can do almost everything right and still lose. You can dominate possession and the run of play and still lose 4 times out of 7 in a series. It's honestly why the Caps chokejobs hurt so much because you figured luck had to swing in their favor at some point, and this year it did.

Luck is zero sum over time. You would expect luck to go their way in one of those 30 or so playoff runs before this one given coin flip odds, yes?

Let's give the team the credit it's due.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Luck is zero sum over time. You would expect luck to go their way in one of those 30 or so playoff runs before this one given coin flip odds, yes?

Let's give the team the credit it's due.

I’m reading it as most are giving the team credit (save the one original poster) and are simply saying luck is a part of it. It is. But sports, like in life....is where you can generally make a lot of your luck ....via preparation, etc.

Pasteur has it right “fortune favours the prepared mind”. That’s not just pissing into the wind while your buddy pisses with it....and wondering why you got piss all over you, and he didn’t.

It’s real life. It’s Pro Sports. Caps had the prepared mind this year. They did the right things, they made the right decisions, they were in the correct spots. And it showed.

 

[g00n]

I’m reading


I’m reading it as most are giving the team credit (save the one original poster) and are simply saying luck is a part of it. It is. But sports, like in life....is where you can generally make a lot of your luck ....via preparation, etc.

Pasteur has it right “fortune favours the prepared mind”. That’s not just pissing into the wind while your buddy pisses with it....and wondering why you got piss all over you, and he didn’t.

It’s real life. It’s Pro Sports. Caps had the prepared mind this year. They did the right things, they made the right decisions, they were in the correct spots. And it showed.

I noted luck always plays a role in my response to the OP of this topic. His contention was that we won because of luck and lost previous years because of luck...no other conditions. That's ridiculous and not at all what any reasonable or experienced athlete believes.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I noted luck always plays a role in my response to the OP of this topic. His contention was that we won because of luck and lost previous years because of luck...no other conditions. That's ridiculous and not at all what any reasonable or experienced athlete believes.

I agree with you 100%. Sorry if that was not more evident in my post. You are right, original poster is wrong. Of course In My Opinion.

 

[peterthegreat12]

I'm a little surprised there has been no official announcement of Cashman being hired yet.

 

[Sam Spade]

ill go 4m x 6

Will be over the moon if that happens.

 

[895]

Here's my new theory, we do better in years ending in 8.

1988, big win over hated Flyers
1998, SCF cinderella run
2008, make playoffs after burning it to the ground
2018, win Cup

2028 win cup with Sergei Alexandrovich Ovechkin???

 

[twabby]

Which teams have best capitalized on their expected Stanley Cup opportunities?




I'd guess that his numbers are close to true. Some teams drastically overperform their expectations and get lucky like Pittsburgh, Chicago, and LA, and most teams underperform their expectations. Washington is where you'd expect after 10 seasons of being competitive: 1 Cup. Such is the case when only 1/30 or 1/31 teams win the Cup every year and there isn't much separating the teams.

Boston has been extremely competitive over the years and they only have one Cup in recent memory. Same with the Lightning who have been really good for several years. Some say these teams are chokers now since they have struggled to win. But at the time they won their Cups they Had What It Takes.

You can do your best to catch fire and play well, but ultimately you need loads of luck. The difference between the Capitals "figuring it out" or choking yet again is likely one Lars Eller goal in 2OT in Game 3 of the first round. Or maybe if Niskanen's goal doesn't bounce off of Murray's pad and go in the Penguins win that game. Or maybe if Murray doesn't let in a soft Chiasson goal the Penguins win that game and win Game 7.

The Capitals didn't suddenly "figure it out", they've always played well over the years (save for the Hunter and Oates versions) and this year they got the breaks. This isn't a one year accomplishment, this is such a huge feat because the Capitals have managed to be consistently good over the course of a 10 year period. It would have been unfortunate if they didn't win a Cup but it shouldn't have been completely unreasonable to expect that either.

 

[Bieronymus Trotz]

That's all probably accurate and fine, but you're getting too close to suggesting that choking isn't real. Narratives are projected onto things inappropriately all the time, and many losses aren't caused by choking, but it's a factor that exists. The Capitals absolutely choked in 2017 against the Penguins. They might've been in a position not to choke had they been luckier earlier and a lucky bounce within the game could've set things on a different course, but game 7 was a mental collapse if one's ever happened. They also did seem to respond better to bad luck this year -- remember, for example, those bullshit calls in R3G2 before the blowout started. That's another thing that gets overstated by pundits, et al., but that doesn't mean it's never real.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

I'm mostly surprised that 15-16 Pittsburgh had a lower expected Cup chance than the same year's Capitals. Those Penguins were one of the best teams I've seen in the post-lockout era and were an advanced stats darling.

 

[um]

I'm mostly surprised that 15-16 Pittsburgh had a lower expected Cup chance than the same year's Capitals. Those Penguins were one of the best teams I've seen in the post-lockout era and were an advanced stats darling.

They suffered from early season struggles just like the 2017-18 Capitals

 

[Portable Mink]

Having a full shoulder reconstruction this morning. If I don’t make it back, @RandyHolt can have my vmoney

 

[Corby78]

That's all probably accurate and fine, but you're getting too close to suggesting that choking isn't real. Narratives are projected onto things inappropriately all the time, and many losses aren't caused by choking, but it's a factor that exists. The Capitals absolutely choked in 2017 against the Penguins. They might've been in a position not to choke had they been luckier earlier and a lucky bounce within the game could've set things on a different course, but game 7 was a mental collapse if one's ever happened. They also did seem to respond better to bad luck this year -- remember, for example, those bull**** calls in R3G2 before the blowout started. That's another thing that gets overstated by pundits, et al., but that doesn't mean it's never real.

I’ll be honest when we had the fake high stick that resulted in a goal I honestly thought to myself “this will probably be that moment”. But this team didn’t let that happen. After that I shift from “hope we win” to “we’re going to win”

 

[twabby]

I'm mostly surprised that 15-16 Pittsburgh had a lower expected Cup chance than the same year's Capitals. Those Penguins were one of the best teams I've seen in the post-lockout era and were an advanced stats darling.

As mentioned it probably has to do with the first half of their season weighing down their metrics, which would surely be a flaw in his model.

That's all probably accurate and fine, but you're getting too close to suggesting that choking isn't real. Narratives are projected onto things inappropriately all the time, and many losses aren't caused by choking, but it's a factor that exists. The Capitals absolutely choked in 2017 against the Penguins. They might've been in a position not to choke had they been luckier earlier and a lucky bounce within the game could've set things on a different course, but game 7 was a mental collapse if one's ever happened. They also did seem to respond better to bad luck this year -- remember, for example, those bull**** calls in R3G2 before the blowout started. That's another thing that gets overstated by pundits, et al., but that doesn't mean it's never real.

Choking exists but just like confidence and catching fire I'm not sure it's a fully controllable thing since choking is dependent on outcomes that are subject to at least some level of random variation. It's up to you to determine what defines a "choke." Choking to me would be a significant reduction in skill level for no excusable reason such as a key injury. But losing a game/series doesn't mean the skill level was reduced, but rather that the outcome (which is a function of skill and luck) was a loss.

Losing to the Penguins multiple times seems like choking but it's fully within the realm of possibility given that the Penguins were likely the better team many of those years despite having a worse record. In the Ovechkin era they've met 4 times and I'd say the Penguins were the better team in 2009 and 2016 while the Capitals were clearly the better team in 2017. Is it that odd to observe that the Capitals were 0-3 in their first 3 matchups? Not really. And now they are 1-3 which seems like a perfectly reasonable outcome without invoking some notion of choking but rather a combination of skill and luck.

 

[Bieronymus Trotz]

Is it that odd to observe that the Capitals were 0-3 in their first 3 matchups?

Of course not, but that doesn't mean anything about the reasons. I don't think we have to speculate about whether it was a choke because we have the game footage and the records of players', coaches' and GMBM's comments, and so on available to us. They didn't play well and happen to lose; they looked totally neutered and helpless. The '09 game, regardless of which team was better and should've won, seems like it also should be categorized as a choke because of the way the dam seemed to break.

Obviously, as you said, we have to define what constitutes choking. "A significant reduction in skill level for no excusable reason" sounds like for mental reasons to me.

 

[artilector]

Having a full shoulder reconstruction this morning. If I don’t make it back, @RandyHolt can have my vmoney

Here's to your full recovery by training camp!

 

[HunterSThompson]

Here's to your full recovery by training camp!

Valuable LTIR space if he doesn't.

 

[Silky mitts]

I’ll be honest when we had the fake high stick that resulted in a goal I honestly thought to myself “this will probably be that moment”. But this team didn’t let that happen. After that I shift from “hope we win” to “we’re going to win”

How did you feel going into game 6? When DSP made it 2-0 that's when it became better than 50/50 for me.

 

[Jags]

I noted luck always plays a role in my response to the OP of this topic. His contention was that we won because of luck and lost previous years because of luck...no other conditions. That's ridiculous and not at all what any reasonable or experienced athlete believes.

Exactly. It wasn't that we had luck this year and didn't in previous years. This is a sport where you have to put yourself in position to have things break your way. If you don't get traffic in front, there are no deflections or "lucky" bounces. You can't complete a stretch pass unless you try some. You won't get any "oops" goals that trickle in off quick releases and off-tempo changes of pace when you're playing conservative, wait-for-the-right-moment hockey all the time. When Holtby let in that brain-fart goal, he wasn't unlucky. He made a mistake and a hard-working guy was all over him when he did.

Yeah, there are occasionally some truly fluky nonsense plays that break one way or the other, but 90+% of the stuff referred to as "luck" in this game have tangible, purposeful causes. The last few years we weren't doing those things at all -- weren't even giving ourselves chances to be lucky. This year we did.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Here's my new theory, we do better in years ending in 8.

1988, big win over hated Flyers
1998, SCF cinderella run
2008, make playoffs after burning it to the ground
2018, win Cup

2028 win cup with Sergei Alexandrovich Ovechkin???

I doubt a 10 year old kid would be of much use. Try 2038 or 2048?