Player Discussion Can Lucic bounce back? Part II

[Drivesaitl]

Lucic has actually played well in the latest games. I understand the ongoing frustration with the player, yes, but he's a low event play both ways that is still very physical and that can impact opposition. When he gets all of somebody they skate off right to the dressing room to gather up their bones. Hits like that cause players to look around more. They do factor.

In anycase its interesting that Lucic is -8 on a very bad club and despite low production is not getting buried out there.

Adam Larsson, making the same pay (approx.) is -25 and we traded Hall for him.

Optics wise I know which player and contract is harder to look at.


I look at Lucic and if he was paid 2.5M less I would hardly notice how bad he is.

I look at Larsson play, at any price, and want to cry.

 

[Little Fury]

No point

Saves $2.375M next season and $1.875M in 21-22. Most importantly, it rids us of a distraction and frees up a roster and contract slot. It's really the only choice.

 

[Wewillrise]

Please retire

 

[MessierII]

Saves $2.375M next season and $1.875M in 21-22. Most importantly, it rids us of a distraction and frees up a roster and contract slot. It's really the only choice.

It’s only a distraction to the fans and media. I’d rather just ride it out with him on the 4th line than have 4 extra years of dead cap and minimal savings for the next 4.

 

[Little Fury]

It’s only a distraction to the fans and media. I’d rather just ride it out with him on the 4th line than have 4 extra years of dead cap and minimal savings for the next 4.

The minimal savings and dead cap down the road is a small price to pay to be rid of him. He's pretty clearly a negative influence on the team.

 

[MessierII]

The minimal savings and dead cap down the road is a small price to pay to be rid of him. He's pretty clearly a negative influence on the team.

If Tampa Bay can pay Callahan 6.5 to play of their 4th line we can do it. Get rid of all the rest of the dead weight. Lots of teams have a bad contract and still compete.

 

[Little Fury]

If Tampa Bay can pay Callahan 6.5 to play of their 4th line we can do it. Get rid of all the rest of the dead weight. Lots of teams have a bad contract and still compete.

Calahan is a $5.8m cap hit and his contract expires next season. Tampa can also afford to do that because most of their talent is locked up on well below market value deals. Let's see how they do next season when Kucherov's new deal kicks in and they have to replace half their blueline.

 

[MessierII]

Calahan is a $5.8m cap hit and his contract expires next season. Tampa can also afford to do that because most of their talent is locked up on well below market value deals. Let's see how they do next season when Kucherov's new deal kicks in and they have to replace half their blueline.

That’s just one example. Boston has Backes, Islanders have Ladd. Lots of teams manage to be good with a bad contract. Buying out Lucic still leaves us with a bad contract and dead space for even longer. Makes no sense at all.

 

[Soundwave]

Saves $2.375M next season and $1.875M in 21-22. Most importantly, it rids us of a distraction and frees up a roster and contract slot. It's really the only choice.

No it's not the only choice and it extends cap penalties into years where they should be trying to actually compete.

You'd be far better off salary retaining the maximum amount (50%) and offering him to some team.

Heck, you would be better off probably just healthy scratching him.

Buy out is literally the worst option. You're stuck with a cap penalty for 8 years.

 

[Little Fury]

That’s just one example. Boston has Backes, Islanders have Ladd. Lots of teams manage to be good with a bad contract.

The Islanders have one of the lowest payrolls in the league, of course they can manage one bad deal. As for the Bruins, same goes for them as Tampa: their core pieces are all locked up for cheap long term. nd it least Backes still has a pulse.

Buying out Lucic still leaves us with a bad contract and dead space for even longer. Makes no sense at all.

It's the only way to get rid of him and he needs to go, that's all there is to it.

 

[Little Fury]

No it's not the only choice and it extends cap penalties into years where they should be trying to actually compete.

You'd be far better off salary retaining the maximum amount (50%) and offering him to some team.

No one will take him at 50%. $3M a year is still about $2M more than he's worth.

Heck, you would be better off probably just healthy scratching him.

Buy out is literally the worst option. You're stuck with a cap penalty for 8 years.

The cap penalty in the last 4 years is wholly insignificant. Take what meagre savings you can get now and just get rid of him.

 

[gordonhught]

Lucic was a terrible signing. Just terrible.

He simply can't play anymore.

 

[Soundwave]

No one will take him at 50%.



The cap penalty in the last 4 years is wholly insignificant. Take what meagre savings you can get now and just get rid of him.

How do you know it's insiginificant?

You realize the 1.6 million of dead cap we have now from Pouliot and Gryba isn't insignificant, we would probably have closer to 7 million to spend on a forward instead of 5 million ... that's a fair sized gap.

At 50% retained, Lucic's actual salary after July 1 bonus is paid out becomes

1.5 million - year 1
2 million - year 2
2.5 million - year 3
2 million - year 4

For a cap floor team that's an average salary of 2 million/year against a cap that keeps rising. That's nothing. I'd rather do this and attach a pick than have our cap compromised for years where we should be focusing on going for it in McDavid's mid/late 20s.

 

[Little Fury]

How do you know it's insiginificant?

You realize the 1.6 million of dead cap we have now from Pouliot and Gryba isn't insignificant, we would probably have closer to 7 million to spend on a forward instead of 5 million ... that's a fair sized gap.

Two players, two pointless buyouts. Not the same thing as a $625K hit on a cap that could be in the $90M range by then.

At 50% retained, Lucic's actual salary after July 1 bonus is paid out becomes

1.5 million - year 1
2 million - year 2
2.5 million - year 3
2 million - year 3

For a cap floor team that's an average salary of 2 million/year against a cap that keeps rising. That's nothing. I'd rather do this and attach a pick than have our cap compromised for years where we should be focusing on going for it in McDavid's mid/late 20s.

Sure, if you can find a cap floor team that will take him at 50% and Lucic agrees to go, you obviously do it.

It's just not gonna happen.

 

[Soundwave]

Two players, two pointless buyouts. Not the same thing as a $625K hit on a cap that could be in the $90M range by then.



Sure, if you can find a cap floor team that will take him at 50% and Lucic agrees to go, you obviously do it.

It's just not gonna happen.

The issue is you're not really getting much cap relief at all, you'd be better off just riding the deal out for a year and seeing if you can find a taker the following summer.

It's not as if you do that and now suddenly you have cap room to really spend money on.

And once you do that, that's it, you're locked in to that cap penalty, no take backs.

Whereas maybe a year from now against a $85 mill cap, maybe some team is willing to take him at salary retained, but if you bought him out you're basically shit out of luck.

I'd rather just healthy scratch him if that's going to be what's done.

 

[Little Fury]

The issue is you're not really getting much cap relief at all, you'd be better off just riding the deal out for a year and seeing if you can find a taker the following summer.

It's not as if you do that and now suddenly you have cap room to really spend money on.

And what to you do, keep his moping a** around the team as it tries to turn the corner? No way.

Maybe...maybe they can find a way to trade for another bad deal like Backes to send Lucic back to finish his career on Boston. But to me the buyout isn't a matter of if, only when.

 

[Soundwave]

And what to you do, keep his moping a** around the team as it tries to turn the corner? No way.

Maybe...maybe they can find a way to trade for another bad deal like Backes to send Lucic back to finish his career on Boston. But to me the buyout isn't a matter of if, only when.

The contract is structured so you basically get little to no significant cap relief.

They'd be better off riding out next season and playing him on the 4th line all year long and then the summer after that if you retain 50% on July 1, 2020 the contract becomes dirt cheap

Year 1 - $500,000
Year 2 - $2.5 million
Year 3 - $2 million

That's an average of $1.67 million ... some cap floor team will take that if you attach a pick or prospect and then you actually get $3 million in cap savings for three years and no cap penalty thereafter.

 

[Little Fury]

The contract is structured so you basically get little to no significant cap relief.

They'd be better off riding out next season and playing him on the 4th line all year long and then the summer after that if you retain 50% on July 1, 2020 the contract becomes dirt cheap

Year 1 - $500,000
Year 2 - $2.5 million
Year 3 - $2 million

That's an average of $1.67 million ... some cap floor team will take that if you attach a pick or prospect and then you actually get $3 million in cap savings for three years.

Perhaps that's true but you seem to forget the part where Lucic would have to OK any trade. Do you think he'd go to Ottawa or Carolina even if they did want him? It's a pipedream.

 

[Soundwave]

Perhaps that's true but you seem to forget the part where Lucic would have to OK any trade. Do you think he'd go to Ottawa or Carolina even if they did want him? It's a pipedream.

Yes I think he would. Edmonton is no picnic in the middle of December and this isn't what he signed on for.

Ottawa has far better travel and Carolina is a way, way better climate with less stress and is a playoff team right now with lower taxes (so he'd effectively be getting a salary raise).

Honestly I think Ottawa is the only team he might be iffy on, but given that it would be a fresh start I think he'd waive even for them. He needs to get out of here too, I think he knows that, the only chance for a career restart at this point is that he can find some chemistry on a different team.

 

[Hemsky4pm2]

Some people are missing the main point.

Lucic is no longer an NHL callibre player.

He ranks 401st in league scoring. That's a generous measure as he's played almost every game.

No team is trading for him at this point, even with salary retained, without the Oilers including real assets like Jones, Bear, Puljuujarvi, etc.

There are two steps with this player this summer:

1. Attempt to trade him anywhere while retaining 50% of his remaining salary and giving up as few assets as possible
2. If step 1. fails, buy him out and accept the cap penalties down the road
3. Use this opportunity to learn a lesson about fiscal discipline and control overall spending (personally, if I owned the team I'd ask for a 5-8% total payroll reduction between summer 2019 and summer 2020 and a further 5% reduction by summer 2021 - then it's up to management to make the necessary moves
4. Spend to the cap ONLY when you have a consistent playoff team; even then, manage the payroll with a cushion in place 4-5%

Buying out Lucic, trading Russell and replacing him with Jones and then moving Larsson and replacing him with Bouchard/Samarukov/Bear in 2020-2021 would go a long way towards correcting the payroll. You can then shed Sekera's cap hit naturally in summer 2021.

Possible D corps in 2021-2022 season

Klefbom - Bouchard
Nurse - Benning
Jones - Samorukov
Bear

At least this D group will be able to move the puck.

 

[frag2]

Remember how a bunch here argued "it's not Hall for Larsson, it's really Hall for Larsson and Lucic"? lol

 

[Little Fury]

Yes I think he would. Edmonton is no picnic in the middle of December and this isn't what he signed on for.

Ottawa has far better travel and Carolina is a way, way better climate with less stress and is a playoff team right now with lower taxes (so he'd effectively be getting a salary raise).

Ottawa is just as bad if not worse situation wise and Carolina wouldn't want him anyway.

 

[Soundwave]

Ottawa is just as bad if not worse situation wise and Carolina wouldn't want him anyway.

Travel for the Sens is significantly better than the Oilers and it's a fresh start for him, he probably takes it even in that case. I don't think he's happy here, Edmonton is probably a depressing place if you're here for hockey and the hockey is going real bad.

It's not bad when the hockey is good, but if you're not playing well ... it's probably downright miserable. I doubt his wife is all that thrilled too.

 

[Little Fury]

Travel for the Sens is significantly better than the Oilers and it's a fresh start for him, he probably takes it even in that case. I don't think he's happy here, Edmonton is probably a depressing place if you're here for hockey and the hockey is going real bad.

It's not bad when the hockey is good, but if you're not playing well ... it's probably downright miserable. I doubt his wife is all that thrilled too.

Ottawa's climate is worse than Edmonton's, plus it's further away from his family on the west coast. And the team has even less hope than here. I don't see it.

Realistically it's keep him, buy him out or pray like hell Seattle takes him.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Remember how a bunch here argued "it's not Hall for Larsson, it's really Hall for Larsson and Lucic"? lol

Which would make the trade even more awful than it already was.