Buyers and Sellers this year

[dirty12]

I'm not too sure the price will be driven down. I understand what you are saying and in a pure supply-demand scenario, that is accurate. In this case I see the prices holding firm with less players moving. Under your scenario it would mean all the players would end up being moved at market price and I don't see spots for them all. Therefore, I see the best of them moving for what is normal market price but a few teams holding the bag on players less desired.

If I were a GM and I value Maksimovitch as the 4th best OA available and I can get him slightly cheaper than the best OA I believe is available, I still take my first choice. The value gap would have to be wide for me to dip down the list to save assets.

In saying that, I believe him to be in the top 5 OA skaters on the potential available list. As such, I feel he would be traded at a good value regardless.

Salinitri went for two 2nds and a 4th. I believe that is the floor for a good OA. So, regardless of market conditions at the deadline, I can't see Erie not getting at least that for him and I'd be surprised if that was all they got.

I think Oshawa & Soo would prefer to sell if an ideal deal presented itself; but, some teams (Oshawa/Peterborough/Soo/Sudbury) might buy at slightly discounted prices if there ends up to be a surplus near the deadline.

 

[Generalsupdates]

Good point. But, if Oshawa were to simply keep a status quo, wouldn't they have just kept those picks for future use?

It seems a waste to use two 2nds on an OA but not be at least dipping a toe in the water for the conference. You can usually get a serviceable 40 point forward as an OA for cheap.

He gave away 2 2nds for salinitri, but one of them was in the coming draft so he couldn’t have stayed status quo because that pick couldn’t have been used as a trade asset after this year.

I would assume Hunt’s plan is to try to be good this year (because good might be enough with how Keyser can just dominate for weeks at a time) and then next year really go all-in. But that’s just me speculating, we’ll see in a month

 

[OttersFan]

Agree. Unfortunately there a couple high end OA’s available that might drive his price down. Nonetheless he needs to be traded as I don’t see the losing stopping any time soon.

I agree. He has a lot of playoff experience which is the only reason why he would get a half decent return.

 

[dirty12]

I agree. He has a lot of playoff experience which is the only reason why he would get a half decent return.

And, he may the only LW available scoring at a ppg for four seasons now.

 

[Hammer9001]

Any thoughts on someone picking up Mattinen to bolster their defense?

 

[Generalsupdates]

Any thoughts on someone picking up Mattinen to bolster their defense?

I would guess this happens sooner than later

 

[The Dog Father]

Any thoughts on someone picking up Mattinen to bolster their defense?

I wouldn't mind seeing Niagara pick him up. After trading Billy Constitinou and veteran Liam Ham Niagara's blueline has weakened. It's undersized as well. A big OA D-man that can play top 4 D-pairing would help significantly. Also Dogs PK is bad, I think Mattinen would help clear the front of the net and use his long reach to get in the way of passing lanes. ...Adds some offence too.

 

[LDN]

I wouldn't mind seeing Niagara pick him up. After trading Billy Constitinou and veteran Liam Ham Niagara's blueline has weakened. It's undersized as well. A big OA D-man that can play top 4 D-pairing would help significantly. Also Dogs PK is bad, I think Mattinen would help clear the front of the net and use his long reach to get in the way of passing lanes. ...Adds some offence too.

Woof

 

[Generalsupdates]

Owen Sound beats Guelph tonight and is now 3rd place in the West. They obviously can't catch London but I really do think if they add a bit they could fight for that 3rd seed in the West with Guelph/Saginaw. They have a couple 2nds/3rds they could use as trade bait and/or use Russell/Seed/Guzda to go get a big goalie (Villalta?) and elite F. To me this has always been just as likely as OS selling because of DeGray and his unwillingness to throw in the towel

 

[OMG67]

Owen Sound beats Guelph tonight and is now 3rd place in the West. They obviously can't catch London but I really do think if they add a bit they could fight for that 3rd seed in the West with Guelph/Saginaw. They have a couple 2nds/3rds they could use as trade bait and/or use Russell/Seed/Guzda to go get a big goalie (Villalta?) and elite F. To me this has always been just as likely as OS selling because of DeGray and his unwillingness to throw in the towel

The only issue with that is Guelph and Saginaw's willingness to make a splash, or at least their perceived willingness.

It happens often that a team like Owen Sound seems to be in the mix but then after the deadline and all the trades are done, they find themselves in the backseat. This can also happen to front runners. All of a sudden a couple teams dump assets on the market and acquire two or three significant rentals and they are then head and shoulders above the rest.

It just seems the recent trend is if you are going to buy at the deadline, you buy to win. It is weird that not many teams do anything other than:
1> Go all in and spend like crazy to win a Championship
2> Sell much of their veteran core to build assets for the future
3> Tinker a little to fill holes but don't really spend more than a couple mid round picks

We don't see teams renting a player for a 2nd and 3rd just to get a little better at the deadline much anymore. It happens but not much. Would a team like Owen Sound do something like that? I'm not sure. I know some, including yourself suggested the Salinitri deal wasn't an indication of Oshawa buying. That is just a hole filler. That is the type of deal I am talking about for hole filler moves at the deadline. If Oshawa does nothing the rest of the way, they are definitely not a buyer. IF Owen Sound were to do a similar deal like you suggest, they wouldn't be a buyer either but they also wouldn't be able to stand up against many of the other buyers they are supposedly grouped in with right now.

How long does Degray wait to get a sense of the market? If it is a buyers market, teams like SSM and Owen Sound may do like you suggest and buy a little. The problem with that is if they decide to do that, the market would no longer be a buyer market because those are the two teams with significant assets people are assuming are available which theoretically floods the market.

It will be interesting to see what happens with respect to both SSM and Owen Sound. They will set the market either way.

 

[ohloutsider]

The only issue with that is Guelph and Saginaw's willingness to make a splash, or at least their perceived willingness.

It happens often that a team like Owen Sound seems to be in the mix but then after the deadline and all the trades are done, they find themselves in the backseat. This can also happen to front runners. All of a sudden a couple teams dump assets on the market and acquire two or three significant rentals and they are then head and shoulders above the rest.

It just seems the recent trend is if you are going to buy at the deadline, you buy to win. It is weird that not many teams do anything other than:
1> Go all in and spend like crazy to win a Championship
2> Sell much of their veteran core to build assets for the future
3> Tinker a little to fill holes but don't really spend more than a couple mid round picks

We don't see teams renting a player for a 2nd and 3rd just to get a little better at the deadline much anymore. It happens but not much. Would a team like Owen Sound do something like that? I'm not sure. I know some, including yourself suggested the Salinitri deal wasn't an indication of Oshawa buying. That is just a hole filler. That is the type of deal I am talking about for hole filler moves at the deadline. If Oshawa does nothing the rest of the way, they are definitely not a buyer. IF Owen Sound were to do a similar deal like you suggest, they wouldn't be a buyer either but they also wouldn't be able to stand up against many of the other buyers they are supposedly grouped in with right now.

How long does Degray wait to get a sense of the market? If it is a buyers market, teams like SSM and Owen Sound may do like you suggest and buy a little. The problem with that is if they decide to do that, the market would no longer be a buyer market because those are the two teams with significant assets people are assuming are available which theoretically floods the market.

It will be interesting to see what happens with respect to both SSM and Owen Sound. They will set the market either way.

I agree with this. I myself have been wondering whether Soo or OS might stand pat so to speak. OS has a history of this so would not surprise me. OS may have some down years after but they always seem to have fan support so I could see that happening.
Soo sitting where they are in the standings in a weak division I actually don't see them selling. They are in a better position than OS pick wise and it won't hurt them quite as much next year. Still might end up being tops in the division next year but Saginaw and Windsor will be better.

 

[Generalsupdates]

...I know some, including yourself suggested the Salinitri deal wasn't an indication of Oshawa buying. That is just a hole filler. That is the type of deal I am talking about for hole filler moves at the deadline. If Oshawa does nothing the rest of the way, they are definitely not a buyer. IF Owen Sound were to do a similar deal like you suggest, they wouldn't be a buyer either but they also wouldn't be able to stand up against many of the other buyers they are supposedly grouped in with right now.

How long does Degray wait to get a sense of the market? If it is a buyers market, teams like SSM and Owen Sound may do like you suggest and buy a little. The problem with that is if they decide to do that, the market would no longer be a buyer market because those are the two teams with significant assets people are assuming are available which theoretically floods the market.

It will be interesting to see what happens with respect to both SSM and Owen Sound. They will set the market either way.

I suggested OS could move some or all of Russell/Guzda/Seed to add an elite F and a high end starting G. I'd say moving your last year's 1st round pick, this years 1st round pick and/or your good, young starting goalie to get older guys who are rentals would be considered as an all-in move

 

[LR8]

OS and Sag both need improved play in net. Would have significantly higher point totals if they had average save percentages, as all tenders on both teams have negative adj. GSAA and are ranked 24th or below in the league. Both appear to have steadied recently however. OS is veteran team with best OA's, solid D, good forwards, and a all time franchise greatest currently in the fold. Sag is a year early - a bit too young. Sault is strong throughout line up, however should be concerned about false sense of security from playing 1 third of their games against a last place team (Flint, Erie, Kingston, NBay). All 3 of these teams could go either way. Agree that Sault and OS will set the market, along with the 67's and their spending. 2nd round picks are high value, however 3 of 20 from 19 year old draft (2015) are no longer in the league. Have said it before, with this draft reported to be thin, Ottawa may regret having all these 2nd's if they have to use them as picks. Mid Jan they become unspent capital during Mem Cup run.

 

[OMG67]

I suggested OS could move some or all of Russell/Guzda/Seed to add an elite F and a high end starting G. I'd say moving your last year's 1st round pick, this years 1st round pick and/or your good, young starting goalie to get older guys who are rentals would be considered as an all-in move

The point is, where would that put them? They’d jsut be doing what other buyers are doing. It wouldn’t propell them forward, jsut allow them to keep pace. That is the point. For Owen Sound to do that just to keep up with the Jones’ is probably not going to happen, especially for the purpose of MAYBE finishing 3rd int he conference.

 

[Naz]

this is a head scratcher
OHLInsiders(.com)‏ @OHLinsiders
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With the trade freeze approaching on Monday - We'll see what happens! Lots of teams selling this year, way more than what there is buyers.

Well wouldn't it be even, if teams that are selling to the teams are buying...

 

[HockeyPops]

Sault is strong throughout line up, however should be concerned about false sense of security from playing 1 third of their games against a last place team (Flint, Erie, Kingston, NBay).

The way we have played those teams, not sure it's been much of an advantage. 7-3 against those four, vs. an overall win % of .672

Well wouldn't it be even, if teams that are selling to the teams are buying...

In the housing market, if more houses are for sale than people looking for a house, it is called a buyers market. Having more sellers is just indicating more teams want to sell, some of them might be unable to make a deal.

 

[OMG67]

this is a head scratcher
OHLInsiders(.com)‏ @OHLinsiders
More
With the trade freeze approaching on Monday - We'll see what happens! Lots of teams selling this year, way more than what there is buyers.

Well wouldn't it be even, if teams that are selling to the teams are buying...

Actually, that isn't really accurate.
1 - if there are more seller teams than buyer teams, the buyer teams could still buy more players than the selling teams have for sale. For example, a buyer may want 3 players but would need to make three separate deals with three different selling teams.
2 - we don't know positions or ages. There could be 3 viable OA's available but 6 spots for them. Then there could be 12 forwards available but only 6 spots. Then 5 D-men available with 5 spots for them. So overall there are more players available but the position and ages don't match creating a buyers market for some pieces and a sellers market for others.

So, it isn't as simple as saying there are five buyer teams and 10 seller teams and draw a direct conclusion.

 

[LR8]

The way we have played those teams, not sure it's been much of an advantage. 7-3 against those four, vs. an overall win % of .672

That is interesting. Greyhounds did get points from 2 of those losses (silly rule, but another conversation). Surely the post Christmas schedule will feature better competition, however things can change with the deadline approaching.

 

[Fischhaber]

Does this Merkley/Gogolev deal signal a run or selloff by either team? It seems kind of neutral at this point.

 

[digiblader]

Two straight losses this week for the Bulldogs, and a tough matchup with the Soo and Guelph looming after Xmas, plus the move by the Petes for Merkley--I am now moving Hamilton into the sellers category.

With the team basically hugging towards 7th/8th in the East (which would equal instant death in the playoffs vs. Ottawa, Niagara or Sudbury), it's time for Hamilton to think about 2-3 years from now when they'll be competitive again, as 2019/20 is likely to be ugly, regardless what the team does at the deadline--they need long term assets who will be here on the next contending club--so they need to load up on picks and young players.

 

[Generalsupdates]

Two straight losses this week for the Bulldogs, and a tough matchup with the Soo and Guelph looming after Xmas, plus the move by the Petes for Merkley--I am now moving Hamilton into the sellers category.

With the team basically hugging towards 7th/8th in the East (which would equal instant death in the playoffs vs. Ottawa, Niagara or Sudbury), it's time for Hamilton to think about 2-3 years from now when they'll be competitive again, as 2019/20 is likely to be ugly, regardless what the team does at the deadline--they need long term assets who will be here on the next contending club--so they need to load up on picks and young players.

That's been the case since the second they got eliminated last year in the Mem Cup lol

 

[hockeynorth]

Wolves are most likely buyers.

 

[LR8]

Wolves are most likely buyers.

Buyers or not, Wolves go 2 rounds this year, unless UPL can light it up and win a second round by himself.

 

[OMG67]

Buyers or not, Wolves go 2 rounds this year, unless UPL can light it up and win a second round by himself.

UPL should be part of that equation.

It really is too early to say. Niagara, Oshawa, and Sudbury are pretty tightly packed together right now. There really isn’t much separating them. The next trade window after Christmas will really show the commitment of each of those three clubs. It will be interesting to see which, if any, of those three teams throw the sink at it in an effort to match up against Ottawa or whether they sit back and stay status quo and position themselves nicely next year.

 

[dirty12]

Buyers or not, Wolves go 2 rounds this year, unless UPL can light it up and win a second round by himself.

Wolves could easily compete for round 3 with the addition of one vet D and one point producing F.
Wolves could easily get knocked off in round 1 by the Petes or Gens if they stand pat.