Proposal: Building for 2021-2022

[majormajor]

I'd add Miller. Hertl and Schmaltz would be fantastic.

Definitely add Miller.

Schmaltz I'm not sure about. How is he defensively? His scoring isn't much different from Domi/Roslovic.

 

[Jovavic]

Favorite targets at C:

• Tomas Hertl (trade) - I think he'd make for an interesting duo with Laine for the time being.
• Phillip Danault (UFA) - As described previously, he's actively shown he can do what we'd need - take on heavy minutes and shield those behind him.
• Nick Schmaltz (trade) - For similar reasons as Danault, although he's less high-profile in that regard.
• David Krejci (UFA) - If we can get him for a few short years as a fill-in, he'd be perfect. But those are very specific circumstances.

Guys I'm ambivalent about:

• Evgeny Kuznetsov (trade) - Those off-ice troubles have me really worried, but if they're overblown, we could potentially get a steal.
• RNH (UFA) - That 5-on-5 malaise has me really really worried.
• Jack Eichel (trade) - Is going to cost a hell of a lot and has quite a bit of risk associated w/r/t attitude and injury, assuming we can get him at all. But, if the risks are unfounded, would presumably solve the #1C problem once and for all.

Guys I Do Not Want or do not think could or would help:

• Sean Monahan (trade) - He's more of what we're already struggling with, but with a higher price tag.
• Logan Couture (trade) - That contract is just too ugly and I'm not sold on his defensive performance.
• Sam Reinhart (trade) - We've already got someone who has an unexpected hot streak that we have to hope on for next year (Roz); I'm not particularly interested in adding another, especially given the "sell high" prices I'm seeing.
• Either Strome brother (trade) - Not good enough to take over as #1C and not sturdy enough to serve as heavy minutes shields - and both seem heavily dependent on playmaking transition wingers as is. If available at REALLY low cost, maybe.
• Any "project"/"reclamation" type like Steel, Patrick, et cetera (trades, mostly) - We've got enough already.

How about Statsny? Could be like a Krejci, and he's played with Laine before.

 

[majormajor]

How about Statsny? Could be like a Krejci, and he's played with Laine before.

He definitely clicked with Laine a few years back. At this point though Stastny is super slow. Maybe if we target him as a center for Laine and give them sheltered deployment. But if we do that we'd still need to get another center to take the harder minutes. None of Domi, Roslovic, or Stastny can do it. Stastny+Danault might have it covered.

Nyquist - Danault - Bjorkstrand
Domi - Stastny - Laine
Bemstrom - Roslovic - Atkinson

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Favorite targets at C:

• Tomas Hertl (trade) - I think he'd make for an interesting duo with Laine for the time being.
• Phillip Danault (UFA) - As described previously, he's actively shown he can do what we'd need - take on heavy minutes and shield those behind him.
• Nick Schmaltz (trade) - For similar reasons as Danault, although he's less high-profile in that regard.
• David Krejci (UFA) - If we can get him for a few short years as a fill-in, he'd be perfect. But those are very specific circumstances.

Guys I'm ambivalent about:

• Evgeny Kuznetsov (trade) - Those off-ice troubles have me really worried, but if they're overblown, we could potentially get a steal.
• RNH (UFA) - That 5-on-5 malaise has me really really worried.
• Jack Eichel (trade) - Is going to cost a hell of a lot and has quite a bit of risk associated w/r/t attitude and injury, assuming we can get him at all. But, if the risks are unfounded, would presumably solve the #1C problem once and for all.

Guys I Do Not Want or do not think could or would help:

• Sean Monahan (trade) - He's more of what we're already struggling with, but with a higher price tag.
• Logan Couture (trade) - That contract is just too ugly and I'm not sold on his defensive performance.
• Sam Reinhart (trade) - We've already got someone who has an unexpected hot streak that we have to hope on for next year (Roz); I'm not particularly interested in adding another, especially given the "sell high" prices I'm seeing.
• Either Strome brother (trade) - Not good enough to take over as #1C and not sturdy enough to serve as heavy minutes shields - and both seem heavily dependent on playmaking transition wingers as is. If available at REALLY low cost, maybe.
• Any "project"/"reclamation" type like Steel, Patrick, et cetera (trades, mostly) - We've got enough already.

Sam Reinhart is good.

 

[majormajor]

• Sam Reinhart (trade) - We've already got someone who has an unexpected hot streak that we have to hope on for next year (Roz); I'm not particularly interested in adding another, especially given the "sell high" prices I'm seeing.

Sam Reinhart is good.

I just took a cursory look at Reinhart in his last stretch as a center. Not many assists. A lot of goals. 12 goals on his final 51 shots. So it does look like a hot streak to me. I'm sure Jarmo's scouts will look deeper than that but at first glance this isn't a 1C caliber player.

I'd still have interest in him as a smart versatile 2C, but obviously only if the real prices reflect that.

 

[Jovavic]

He definitely clicked with Laine a few years back. At this point though Stastny is super slow. Maybe if we target him as a center for Laine and give them sheltered deployment. But if we do that we'd still need to get another center to take the harder minutes. None of Domi, Roslovic, or Stastny can do it. Stastny+Danault might have it covered.

Nyquist - Danault - Bjorkstrand
Domi - Stastny - Laine
Bemstrom - Roslovic - Atkinson

Agreed, I didn't mean as the top target, he's a secondary player at this point in his career.

 

[Cowumbus]

Danault on the top line makes me want to puke, also pretty sure Stastny is retiring after this year.

Give me Vilardi or White.

 

[majormajor]

Danault on the top line makes me want to puke, also pretty sure Stastny is retiring after this year.

Give me Vilardi or White.

I think if we chart the course on a rebuild, then a younger center target like Vilardi would make sense. Otherwise he's just another raw young player we would have to shelter.

Is this Colin White you speak of? He's a buy-out candidate.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I've now stopped looking at potential centers. With the increasing uncertainty about Jones its not worth the effort to try to find C options yet. If Jones plans on walking then you need to pull the chute on the roster and make everyone available. If Jones signs, then it's time to start looking at those options again.

 

[Cowumbus]

I think if we chart the course on a rebuild, then a younger center target like Vilardi would make sense. Otherwise he's just another raw young player we would have to shelter.

Is this Colin White you speak of? He's a buy-out candidate.

Colin White will cost nothing but cash, it worked out well with AW in Florida.

 

[Jive Pawnbroker]

I've now stopped looking at potential centers. With the increasing uncertainty about Jones its not worth the effort to try to find C options yet. If Jones plans on walking then you need to pull the chute on the roster and make everyone available. If Jones signs, then it's time to start looking at those options again.

Compound that with the potential of Werenski not signing this summer and we are talking starting over from scratch ala Ottawa.

If there is hesitancy from either guy to re-up this summer then it's time to get your best deal for help now for next season forward vs getting draft picks at the deadline, which is long-term help vs immediate help. And that's assuming the hockey gods don't put both guys on season-ending IR before the trade deadline.

 

[Viqsi]

I'd add Miller. Hertl and Schmaltz would be fantastic.

Miller would be in my "ambivalent" list, as I'm not sold on him as either a long-term C option or as a heavy minutes shield.

* * *​

How about Statsny? Could be like a Krejci, and he's played with Laine before.

I think he's faded too much, honestly.

* * *​

Schmaltz I'm not sure about. How is he defensively? His scoring isn't much different from Domi/Roslovic.

He's looked competent on the rare occasions that I see him, and analytics seem to back that up (specifically, xGF% on naturalstattrick.com - 2.68 for/60, 2.33 against/60 for 53.55%). Danault's obviously better (he's below 2 xGA/60), and he'd still be my first choice, but still.

 

[Viqsi]

I just took a cursory look at Reinhart in his last stretch as a center. Not many assists. A lot of goals. 12 goals on his final 51 shots. So it does look like a hot streak to me. I'm sure Jarmo's scouts will look deeper than that but at first glance this isn't a 1C caliber player.

I'd still have interest in him as a smart versatile 2C, but obviously only if the real prices reflect that.

I frankly don't have much interest in chasing after additional #2Cs unless they can handle those heavy minutes. I think we've already got two or three to work with.

 

[Viqsi]

I've now stopped looking at potential centers. With the increasing uncertainty about Jones its not worth the effort to try to find C options yet. If Jones plans on walking then you need to pull the chute on the roster and make everyone available. If Jones signs, then it's time to start looking at those options again.

I disagree, largely because whether he signs or not - and whether we retool or rebuild - someone who shields the younger guys we have is going to be necessary. That might affect whether or not we go for home-run swings, but that's IMO a less important pursuit.

 

[cslebn]

I frankly don't have much interest in chasing after additional #2Cs unless they can handle those heavy minutes. I think we've already got two or three to work with.

I don't mind it if they can be more the shutdown variety. Roslovic and Domi are both pure offense at this point and can't line match tough competition. Tex just isn't there yet and tbd if he can. He looked so good last year and then had 0 confidence this year.

 

[Viqsi]

I don't mind it if they can be more the shutdown variety. Roslovic and Domi are both pure offense at this point and can't line match tough competition. Tex just isn't there yet and tbd if he can. He looked so good last year and then had 0 confidence this year.

That's the "unless" I was talking about.

 

[LJ7]

Danault would fill a needed role on this roster. He wouldn't be a 1C "savior" or whatever but he'd be nice to matchup with opposing top lines. I want him.

 

[Viqsi]

Definitely add Miller.

Why? I don't see that much defensive strength when I've glanced at his game, and his analytics this past season make him look as bad as Domi in terms of team impact.
Bring up this - Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick - then sort it by xGF% descending, and you'll find him and Domi at 110 and 112 respectively. And then look at all the other rates. And their respective PDOs.

 

[cslebn]

Why? I don't see that much defensive strength when I've glanced at his game, and his analytics this past season make him look as bad as Domi in terms of team impact.
Bring up this - Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick - then sort it by xGF% descending, and you'll find him and Domi at 110 and 112 respectively. And then look at all the other rates. And their respective PDOs.

I was surprised by some of that list.

8 Krecji 58.14
10 Danault 57.56
19 Hertl 56.68
21 Backlund 56.49
24 RNH 55.59
35 Kuzy 53.71 (his GF% was like 65+)
36 Schmaltz 53.55
40 Necas 52.51
80 Copp 48.57
88 Roslovic 47.78
94 Schenn 46.65
107 Jenner 45.99
110 Miller 45.77
112 Domi 45.74
121 Horvat 44.96

Now obviously bad seasons (look at Schiefs numbers), line mates (Danault, RNH), and deployment impact these numbers. Fwiw, Reinhart wasn't listed as a C and I didn't take the time to dig.

 

[majormajor]

I disagree, largely because whether he signs or not - and whether we retool or rebuild - someone who shields the younger guys we have is going to be necessary. That might affect whether or not we go for home-run swings, but that's IMO a less important pursuit.

I think if we go for a Sens-style rebuild (high risk/reward), then we should just let Domi and Jack sink or swim. They're not really fragile young players anymore.

 

[majormajor]

Why? I don't see that much defensive strength when I've glanced at his game, and his analytics this past season make him look as bad as Domi in terms of team impact.
Bring up this -
Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick - then sort it by xGF% descending, and you'll find him and Domi at 110 and 112 respectively. And then look at all the other rates. And their respective PDOs.

For team impact I would also check the stats relative to teammates, and there Miller is on the positive side of the ledger. That doesn't mean he's been great, it mostly means that Vancouver is awful at 5v5. But he's not that bad either. And he's mostly had good rel xG% in his career.

I'm not so much suggesting Miller as a savior piece. I think he's been up and down in a terrible year for the Canucks and might be a good acquisition if the price is right. (If the fan offers are any reflection of reality, he's the best value). He has a lot of qualities we need and we could use him whether he's a 1C or not.

 

[majormajor]

Miller would be in my "ambivalent" list, as I'm not sold on him as either a long-term C option or as a heavy minutes shield.

* * *​

I think he's faded too much, honestly.

* * *​

He's looked competent on the rare occasions that I see him, and analytics seem to back that up (specifically, xGF% on naturalstattrick.com - 2.68 for/60, 2.33 against/60 for 53.55%). Danault's obviously better (he's below 2 xGA/60), and he'd still be my first choice, but still.

I'd love to get Schmaltz, but no idea if he'd be available. That xG% is a bit buoyed by Garland, but looking at his career profile I can tell he's a player we could use.

 

[majormajor]

I was surprised by some of that list.

8 Krecji 58.14
10 Danault 57.56
19 Hertl 56.68
21 Backlund 56.49
24 RNH 55.59
35 Kuzy 53.71 (his GF% was like 65+)
36 Schmaltz 53.55
40 Necas 52.51
80 Copp 48.57
88 Roslovic 47.78
94 Schenn 46.65
107 Jenner 45.99
110 Miller 45.77
112 Domi 45.74
121 Horvat 44.96

Now obviously bad seasons (look at Schiefs numbers), line mates (Danault, RNH), and deployment impact these numbers. Fwiw, Reinhart wasn't listed as a C and I didn't take the time to dig.

I've been checking their stats relative to teammates and linemates, so I'll fill in a little context here (in bold).

8 Krecji 58.14. He's that good
10 Danault 57.56. He and Gallagher are flat out amazing together. Separately? Not so much.
19 Hertl 56.68. He's that good
21 Backlund 56.49. He's that good
24 RNH 55.59. That's driven by his centers, he's been okay in the past at center
35 Kuzy 53.71.
36 Schmaltz 53.55. He and Garland are that good together, by far the best combo in AZ
40 Necas 52.51
80 Copp 48.57. That's an outstanding number on the Jets.
88 Roslovic 47.78. He created a lot more chances than his teammates.
94 Schenn 46.65
107 Jenner 45.99. Hard job on a bad team, somewhat overrated as a defensive player
110 Miller 45.77. Really bad team, he wasn't helping or hurting much.
112 Domi 45.74. He's that bad.
121 Horvat 44.96. Hard job on a bad team, somewhat overrated as a defensive player

 

[cslebn]

I've been checking their stats relative to teammates and linemates, so I'll fill in a little context here (in bold).

8 Krecji 58.14. He's that good
10 Danault 57.56. He's that good
19 Hertl 56.68. He's that good
21 Backlund 56.49. He's that good
24 RNH 55.59. That's driven by his centers, he's been okay in the past at center
35 Kuzy 53.71.
36 Schmaltz 53.55. He and Garland are that good together, by far the best combo in AZ
40 Necas 52.51
80 Copp 48.57
88 Roslovic 47.78.
94 Schenn 46.65
107 Jenner 45.99. Hard job on a bad team, somewhat overrated as a defensive player
110 Miller 45.77. Really bad team, he wasn't helping or hurting much.
112 Domi 45.74. He's that bad.
121 Horvat 44.96. Hard job on a bad team, somewhat overrated as a defensive player

I thought Danault was getting a bump from Gallagher. Is that not what you saw?

 

[majormajor]

I thought Danault was getting a bump from Gallagher. Is that not what you saw?

I just checked it eleven different ways and you're right, I'll edit it. Both are much better together and closer to even by themselves.

I'm still hesitant to say either is a product of each other. It's amazing what they've done together the last few years. There are surely great individual qualities that made that possible, it just becomes harder to know if we have the right situation to bring out those qualities. I think that Danault+Bjorkstrand might be just as amazing, but there's risk.