Brady Tkachuk vs 2019 4th Overall

[Lemonlimey]

Man I would’ve loved to have a Tkachuk right now in the playoffs.

thats the irony, both clubs could use the other asset more. Sens would be further advanced in the rebuild with one of the stud centremen top of this draft and Avs could have used an NHL ready player for a playoff campaign season.

 

[General Disarray]

We all dragged them for the decision last year, but it looked like the gamble paid off. Assuming Byram goes #3, I think I would prefer Tkachuk vs these other guys.

 

[Lemonlimey]

We all dragged them for the decision last year, but it looked like the gamble paid off. Assuming Byram goes #3, I think I would prefer Tkachuk vs these other guys.

It was Dorion and Melnyk getting dragged, taking the pick last year was a no brainer for them to try and save face and kick the can down the road. But the top of this draft is even better than the last.

 

[Clamshells]

thats the irony, both clubs could use the other asset more. Sens would be further advanced in the rebuild with one of the stud centremen top of this draft and Avs could have used an NHL ready player for a playoff campaign season.

Actually, both clubs could use Tkachuk more than the 4oa.

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

at the time of the trade the pick looked to be in the late teens +, sure it sucks we didnt get a home run 1st overall but the 4th overall pick will likely be a good player and colorado can now (and should) use their own first on spencer knight if availible while filling a need at forward at 4.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

thats the irony, both clubs could use the other asset more. Sens would be further advanced in the rebuild with one of the stud centremen top of this draft and Avs could have used an NHL ready player for a playoff campaign season.

No Ottawa needs Tkachuk badly. No irony here.

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

No Ottawa needs Tkachuk badly. No irony here.

ottawa needs many top tier young players.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

ottawa needs many top tier young players.

they definitely do.

 

[missionAvs]

No Ottawa needs Tkachuk badly. No irony here.

The irony is that the Sens could use another 4th overall pick. Them taking last years pick was a given. It's the fact that they gave up the 1st rounder for a player they never even retained that should be stinging. Did it suck for the Avs that we lost the lottery again? Sure, but the fact remains that we have the opportunity to pick a core player going forwards for our squad while still getting into the playoffs (albeit by the slimmest of margins).

The fact of the matter is that the Sens could use the 4th overall just like the Avs could use Tkachuk right now. Literally every team in the league can probably say that though.

 

[HavlatMach9]

The fact of the matter is that the Sens could use the 4th overall just like the Avs could use Tkachuk right now. Literally every team in the league can probably say that though.

well that's already reflected in the bitterness of the fanbase towards management of the team, and it's different issue than picking between the 2018 and 2019 picks.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

I don't know, but I will say the Sens recovered well from the terrible original trade. Tkachuk is a player, and they got a great return for Duchene.

 

[missionAvs]

well that's already reflected in the bitterness of the fanbase towards management of the team, and it's different issue than picking between the 2018 and 2019 picks.

My point is that it wasn't really a choice between the two. No GM in their right mind would have let the Avs pick in 2018 to keep next years pick. The optics of them doing so would have been terrible. This isn't even mentioning that they would have essentially done it for a small chance of getting a better player but an overwhelming possibility of getting an equivalent/worse prospect. We won't know if the 4th overall this year will be better/same/worse than Tkachuk for quite some time but it would have been too big a risk for the Sens to just give up the assured 4th overall.

 

[mphmiles]

People keep saying what the Sens did was a gamble, but it was really the opposite of that. "Gambling" would have been keeping the unknown pick and unknown lottery slot of 2019, hoping that the small chance of improving the pick came to fruition and that the pick didn't potentially drop.

The Sens took the known quantity of a player they really liked in a pretty high draft slot.

 

[Avsboy]

Look, I don't know how any team can bet against itself going into a season. There is no way that the Sens couldn't take Tkachuk. Even if the pick turned out 1st OA, their hands were tied.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

In a vacuum I'd take Dach and Byram over Tkachuk because of position, but considering everything you can't just punt Tkachuk to the Avs if you're the Sens last year....

 

[rt]

I’d take Tkachuk.

 

[General Disarray]

My point is that it wasn't really a choice between the two. No GM in their right mind would have let the Avs pick in 2018 to keep next years pick. The optics of them doing so would have been terrible. This isn't even mentioning that they would have essentially done it for a small chance of getting a better player but an overwhelming possibility of getting an equivalent/worse prospect. We won't know if the 4th overall this year will be better/same/worse than Tkachuk for quite some time but it would have been too big a risk for the Sens to just give up the assured 4th overall.

Agreed. I'm certain all of us on this forum would chose this year's pick in a heartbeat. But no GM, not even Yzerman or Poille, would do that. Dorion did what any GM should do.

 

[ismelofhockey]

Wait, what?

At the time Ottawa kept the pick last year there was no guarantee they would finish last the next season, and have the 1/5 odds to draft Hughes.

Amazing how many people don’t understand this.

And it's even more amazing that people think a defence led by Cody Ceci, Mark Borowiecki, and Dylan De Melo would have any chance of finishing anything but last in the NHL. Half the defencemen were rookies or sophomores.

The team had finished second to last the year before, and that was before it transformed Brassard into futures, Hoffman into Boeddker, Phaneuf into Gaborik, and had already decided to trade Karlsson...

The fact they traded Hoffman for Boeddker tells you all you need to know about Dorion's master plan.

 

[obey86]

And it's even more amazing that people think a defence led by Cody Ceci, Mark Borowiecki, and Dylan De Melo would have any chance of finishing anything but last in the NHL. Half the defencemen were rookies or sophomores.

The team had finished second to last the year before, and that was before it transformed Brassard into futures, Hoffman into Boeddker, Phaneuf into Gaborik, and had already decided to trade Karlsson...

The fact they traded Hoffman for Boeddker tells you all you need to know about Dorion's master plan.

Karlsson was still on the team when they decided to keep the 2018 draft pick, so that wasn’t their defense.

And teams outperform or underperform expectations in sports all the time, even if “on paper” they look like the worst or best team in the league. Even this year, they were only 7 points behind the 2nd worst team and 8 points behind the 3rd worst team. The puck bounces a different way a few times and it’s very possible they don’t finish in last.

 

[ismelofhockey]

Karlsson was still on the team when they decided to keep the 2018 draft pick, so that wasn’t their defense.

And teams outperform or underperform expectations in sports all the time, even if “on paper” they look like the worst or best team in the league. Even this year, they were only 7 points behind the 2nd worst team and 8 points behind the 3rd worst team. The puck bounces a different way a few times and it’s very possible they don’t finish in last.

They had already decided to trade Karlsson. They knew he wasn't going to be there. They knew the defence would not be NHL quality.

And yes, anything is possible. But we're talking about playing the odds. The odds were stacked against them, and it's only by sheer luck that it wasn't a complete disaster. Dorion deserved all the criticism that was lobbed at him.

 

[supsens]

They had already decided to trade Karlsson. They knew he wasn't going to be there. They knew the defence would not be NHL quality.

And yes, anything is possible. But we're talking about playing the odds. The odds were stacked against them, and it's only by sheer luck that it wasn't a complete disaster. Dorion deserved all the criticism that was lobbed at him.

18.5% chance of drafting first, the odds were not stacked against them, they made the right call. And let's face it, EM has wanted his power forward for years, he would have fired everyone and drafted Brady alone if need be.

 

[ismelofhockey]

18.5% chance of drafting first, the odds were not stacked against them, they made the right call. And let's face it, EM has wanted his power forward for years, he would have fired everyone and drafted Brady alone if need be.

Leaving Melnyk out of it for a second, you're acting as though it's an 18.5% chance at Hughes or nothing. When actually it's an 18.5% chance at Hughes + 16.5% chance at Kakko, and a 65% chance of getting a player of similar value to Tkachuk.

Bringing Melnyk back into the discussion, even if he pulled the strings Dorion would still deserve criticism for letting it happen.

 

[Danythegod]

Keeping the 2019 pick would have been gambling hard. The 31st place team has a 50.6% chance of picking 4th. It is the most likely outcome by a significant amount. That's if you finish last.

Keeping the 2018 pick was the most logical decision, the fact that Dorion received so much criticism for that decision still puzzles me.

I think the antics leading up to that was the reason criticism was so high. He traded a first round pick in November (no team does that.. well the sens do) for Duchene and then the sens **** the bed. Topped with all the drama we've been through, how could anyone trust what decision he made is a good one? BT is a great pick but we could've had him and whoever is chosen this year if dummy Dorion wasn't so incapable of being a competent GM (Sorry puppet).

logical decision if you don't take into account that both picks could've been ours and with a guy who got Tierney for Erik Karlsson, I think the criticism was justified.

 

[supsens]

Leaving Melnyk out of it for a second, you're acting as though it's an 18.5% chance at Hughes or nothing. When actually it's an 18.5% chance at Hughes + 16.5% chance at Kakko, and a 65% chance of getting a player of similar value to Tkachuk.

Bringing Melnyk back into the discussion, even if he pulled the strings Dorion would still deserve criticism for letting it happen.

They stated last year the only player they would want over Brady is Hughes so yah it's 18.5.

The sens are a business and they are struggling to sell tickets there is almost zero chance 3rd and 4th OA have the same 'value' as the legandary Tkachuk name. Even a guy like Kakko does not have hockey folklore to follow him around and as you can see he is not available anyway just like the odds said.
They made the right choice, hindsight says they did, yet you think they deserve criticism for it? I guess thats why you don't work in the NHL

 

[paragon]

At the time of Brady Tkachuk being drafted it seemed many were split if taking him was the right decision and up until about 6:45 (mountain time) last night it looked like it might not be. Now that it's official that the pick is fourth overall, does the pick have more value than Matthew Tkachuk?

This does not involve the decision made by the Sens, but rather just the value of the potential players at 4 this year versus Brady Tkachuk.

I guess it might end up that way. Better lucky than good.