Brady Tkachuk vs 2019 4th Overall

[DFF]

Nobody tell him it's 7 more points than Mackinnon scored when he was 15 days older.

Yeah

And the bigger joke is tkachuk is labelled as a 45pt winger but the undrafted prospect is a top pair dman

 

[inthewings]

The made the right call keeping the pick, though I strongly believed at the time that Zadina was the best pick. We'll see how it plays out, but Brady has exceeded expectations so far.

 

[Pip]

I'll let Sens fans feel like they "won" this tiny part of the trade if it makes them feel better. The Avs need a 2C or potential top pair LHD more than they need a 45 point winger.

Name checks out lol

 

[Korpse]

The problem with your answers is you don’t know the probability of the Senators finishing in each place in the standings. It would be extremely hard to figure out, i don’t think anyone has come up with an accurate way to determine this. Please inform me if I’m wrong.

What we do know is they would’ve had a 20% chance at #1 and a 50% chance of top 3. The best chance in the league at both and the worst they could finish was 4th. If Colorado got a top 2 pick, which the Senators were fortunate didn’t happen. You and all Sens fans would be singing a much different tune.

Prior to the season what do you think the probability of them finishing in the bottom 3 was? Imo it was quite high.

Bottom line is that they were the team most likely to finish last and it happened. They would then have a 50% shot at picking top 3 or 50% having the same pick. Worth the gamble. If they miraculously played a bit better than they anticipated and were in line to pick 5th or 6th (still have a lottery shot) then that’s a risk you should be taking.

There are models that calculate playoff probability, even game probabilities. Though they arne't 100% accurate those same models could give you an idea but from my knowledge there isn't any thing thats public regarding the topic. That said, it isn't a reason to dismiss the fact that in june 2018, Ottawa had not clinched last place, that didn't happen until 9 months latter.

If you want to say Ottawa was the most likely to finish last therefore you can assume they would have. Then I'm going to respond with it was most likely the last place team's pick would be 4th. Right there you can eliminate any potential winning a lottery pick. This is now strictly a question of who was available at 4th in 2018 vs who was available at 4th in 2019.

 

[ismelofhockey]

Fist of all, that's assuming the Sens would even finish 31st in the first place, and yes, 1 in 5 is not very good odds, as we saw yesterday. To not draft Tkachuk last year would have been a very risky gamble.

"Assuming" they even finished in 31st place? They started the year with Cody Ceci as their most experienced defenceman. Do you honestly believe any other result was possible for a team with as many rookies on the blue line and a complete circus running the team? If Dorion couldn't see that, he definitely deserved the criticism.
That also means that you've got it wrong about what the risk was. The risk was that there were 1 in 3 odds that the Sens ended up with a franchise player like Hughes or Kakko, and they were more or less (given the sorry state of the defence) guaranteed to pick in the top 4 again in 2019 giving them a shot once again at a player of equal value to Tkachuk. The Sens and Dorion got lucky. And they didn't get lucky in the sense that they vastly improved the franchise. They got lucky that their scatterbrained plan didn't end up a total disaster. Don't pretend there was any genius to it.

 

[Yackiberg8]

There are models that calculate playoff probability, even game probabilities. Though they arne't 100% accurate those same models could give you an idea but from my knowledge there isn't any thing thats public regarding the topic. That said, it isn't a reason to dismiss the fact that in june 2018, Ottawa had not clinched last place, that didn't happen until 9 months latter.

If you want to say Ottawa was the most likely to finish last therefore you can assume they would have. Then I'm going to respond with it was most likely the last place team's pick would be 4th. Right there you can eliminate any potential winning a lottery pick. This is now strictly a question of who was available at 4th in 2018 vs who was available at 4th in 2019.

Those models are not very accurate.

It is basically 50/50 for the last place team to have 4th or pick top 3. They could not do any worse than the previous year if they finished last, they could only have a great chance at 2 phenom players.

 

[Scuba-Steve]

Bad decision that turned out to be good.

I'd take Tkachuk before any of the kids available after 2 this years draft.

 

[Yamborghini]

Is it not worse for the Sens in the long run that their management team now gets to pull a "ha! see, we were right!" instead of dealing with the embarrassment and changing their outlook?

Just seems to allow this group of dinguses to keep spinning their tires at the expense of a fanbase that deserves better.

 

[Foppberg]

Probably Brady... But we could really use a legit #2C and there's options for that with this pick, so I dunno. Time will tell.

 

[StreetHawk]

Probably Brady... But we could really use a legit #2C and there's options for that with this pick, so I dunno. Time will tell.

So long as they didn’t surrender one of the top 2 picks Brady is in there with the rest of the players at 3 onwards.

They did know that this draft had more C than last year.

 

[Foppberg]

So long as they didn’t surrender one of the top 2 picks Brady is in there with the rest of the players at 3 onwards.

They did know that this draft had more C than last year.

I know. I like Brady a lot, but if we can get a center at his level? I'd take that over him. Like I said time will tell.

From a Sens POV I'm sure they're happier with Tkachuk than this years #4, but until we know what that #4 will be it's next to impossible to say.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Where the pick ended up isn't really relevant. The Sens aren't any more "screwed over" if it's Hughes or not once the pick is out of their hands. What's the sense in comparing this outcome to a completely different one had they not kept the pick? For all we know, Tkachuk was the difference between one of the teams above them getting an extra point or two and completely changing the lottery winners.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

On the subject of the trade, if I was a GM, I would put tons of conditions on a draft pick to make sure I get fair value for it. In the hypothetical scenario with Colorado I might say if the pick ends up top 10, Colorado would owe me a 2nd round pick back

Another scenario I always thought would be smart is put a condition if the pick is top 10, I have the right to trade that pick down to the 11th spot(hypothetically going on 4th overall, I could trade the 4th for thr 6th pick and a 2nd rounder, the 6th for the 9th pick and a 2nd rounder and the 9th for the 11th pick and a 3rd rounder)

With the new draft lottery rules, I'm surprised GMs haven't started rewording conditions so that there are less surprises with what teams are going to get when what is expected to be a playoff 1st is dealt.

Let's look at the Duchene from OTT to CBJ trade.

COL gets OTT 2018 1st
1) Pick is top 3 protected, if CBJ finishes in the bottom 3, they can give OTT their 2020 pick (unprotected instead)
or
2) If CBJ finishes in the bottom 3, CBJ can protect the pick by providing OTT with a top 15 pick in 2019.

Teams can only exercise the second protection option if they actually end up with a high enough pick, so it wouldn't be a scenario where CBJ could finish with the 12th overall pick, trade back to 15, and then give 15 to OTT. Only if they finished in their protection range (top 3) would they be able to start phoning up other teams trying to get a 15th overall or higher pick to fulfill their commitment to Ottawa so that they wouldn't have to risk giving up their unprotected 2020 pick.

 

[boredmale]

With the new draft lottery rules, I'm surprised GMs haven't started rewording conditions so that there are less surprises with what teams are going to get when what is expected to be a playoff 1st is dealt.

Let's look at the Duchene from OTT to CBJ trade.

COL gets OTT 2018 1st
1) Pick is top 3 protected, if CBJ finishes in the bottom 3, they can give OTT their 2020 pick (unprotected instead)
or
2) If CBJ finishes in the bottom 3, CBJ can protect the pick by providing OTT with a top 15 pick in 2019.

Teams can only exercise the second protection option if they actually end up with a high enough pick, so it wouldn't be a scenario where CBJ could finish with the 12th overall pick, trade back to 15, and then give 15 to OTT. Only if they finished in their protection range (top 3) would they be able to start phoning up other teams trying to get a 15th overall or higher pick to fulfill their commitment to Ottawa so that they wouldn't have to risk giving up their unprotected 2020 pick.

So what I suggested it legal? I am surprised more teams then don't use that I have the option to trade down clause

 

[danielpalfredsson]

So what I suggested it legal? I am surprised more teams then don't use that I have the option to trade down clause

I don't know if it's legal. I'm just making a similar suggestion. I'm not thinking teams would trade back, but rather they'd probably go out and try to make a different trade to get a pick to fulfill the protection condition without having to give up their future pick.

I would assume teams could do something like that, so long as it was all spelled out. We've seen conditions before like "the higher of the two 2nd round picks the team currently owns". I would assume as long as something is objective and quantifiable it could be a condition.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

The Sens made the wrong move considering they knew they were losing monster pieces in the offseason, but considering how the lottery played out, Id take Tkachuk all day every day.

 

[TorontoTrades]

Sens should be relieved with Colorado getting 4th.

Tkachuk looks like a good young piece already. I dont think they're disappointed given their choice and result.

 

[playasRus]

Trading for Duchene was the OG mistake. Keeping the 2018 pick was the fight choice. No one expects a team with Duchene and Karlsson and Stone Town be dead last. Probably in the 25th range. But then they traded EK. And Duchene. And Stone. And Dzingle.

 

[Roof Daddy]

I will echo most here:

Horrible trade, good damage control. We won't know for a few years, but it sure looks like Tkachuk will be as good/better than anyone the Avs can choose at 4. I think Byram or Podkolzin might challenge, but then you have an offensive LHD (already have Chabot and Brannstrom - though he came after), or a Russian winger who might play games with his agent/KHL if he doesn't want to be in Ottawa.

I'll admit I thought it was a bit crazy last year, but now I'm hindsight it has worked out well.

 

[PAZ]

With the new draft lottery rules, I'm surprised GMs haven't started rewording conditions so that there are less surprises with what teams are going to get when what is expected to be a playoff 1st is dealt.

Let's look at the Duchene from OTT to CBJ trade.

COL gets OTT 2018 1st
1) Pick is top 3 protected, if CBJ finishes in the bottom 3, they can give OTT their 2020 pick (unprotected instead)
or
2) If CBJ finishes in the bottom 3, CBJ can protect the pick by providing OTT with a top 15 pick in 2019.

Teams can only exercise the second protection option if they actually end up with a high enough pick, so it wouldn't be a scenario where CBJ could finish with the 12th overall pick, trade back to 15, and then give 15 to OTT. Only if they finished in their protection range (top 3) would they be able to start phoning up other teams trying to get a 15th overall or higher pick to fulfill their commitment to Ottawa so that they wouldn't have to risk giving up their unprotected 2020 pick.

If a team wants to defer their pick, that's fine but there needs to be incentive for the other team to agree to it to. Most deals aren't as complicated as the OTT - COL and there most likely would be similar offers. If a team agreed to that clause it either means that they have no other offers on the table, or that the offer with that clause is still clearly better than the rest. Usually offers will be similar in nature, with preference towards the prospects or extra pick that puts one team over the edge. If a team wanted to try and field that condition they can, but it means that the package's trade value has decreased.

 

[greasysnapper]

I think a few of the options at 4 will have the potential to be higher point producers in the right setting, especially on Colorado, but Tkachuk will provide elements those players cannot. That chippyness, physicality, and shift disturbance that I think is really valuable to building a winning team.

 

[Derg12]

Knowing the outcome now? Tkachuk all the way... double rainbow.

 

[Iggys Dome]

Brady was a solid pick...future captain

 

[HavlatMach9]

Is it not worse for the Sens in the long run that their management team now gets to pull a "ha! see, we were right!" instead of dealing with the embarrassment and changing their outlook?

dismantling a playoffs team, two straight years at the bottom, and Dorion is still here so if the Avs won the lottery, the management would remain.

It's also not a bad thing for Dorion to lead a rebuild because scouting is a strength. Once pro-scouting decisions need to be made in a few years time, hopefully they aren't here anymore.

 

[KevinRedkey]

I was wrong about Tkachuk (I wanted Zadina), and I was wrong about keeping the pick.

I think any team other than NJD and NYR would trade their pick for Tkachuk.