Brady Tkachuk vs 2019 4th Overall

[Perratrooper]

At the time of Brady Tkachuk being drafted it seemed many were split if taking him was the right decision and up until about 6:45 (mountain time) last night it looked like it might not be. Now that it's official that the pick is fourth overall, does the pick have more value than Matthew Tkachuk?

This does not involve the decision made by the Sens, but rather just the value of the potential players at 4 this year versus Brady Tkachuk.

Click to read more...

 

[Brock Radunske]

The Sens gambled hard on the picks and I feel pretty confident that they at least broke-even and most likely made a very smart move taking Tkachuk. Him and his brothers are very rare players in today's NHL.

 

[JT Kreider]

Tkachuk easily

 

[SI90]

Tkachuck is looking like a great pick.

 

[topshelf15]

Still a horrible trade,but Iam very happy for BT not having to be compared to a player like Hughes.....Iam also happy we kept him

 

[LeProspector]

Horrible trade, but Tkachuk was the right selection.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Tkachuk is special. As an Avs fan, I would much rather have him than this year’s 4th overall, even taking into account our woes at the 2C position.

 

[Korpse]

The Sens gambled hard on the picks

Keeping the 2019 pick would have been gambling hard. The 31st place team has a 50.6% chance of picking 4th. It is the most likely outcome by a significant amount. That's if you finish last.

Keeping the 2018 pick was the most logical decision, the fact that Dorion received so much criticism for that decision still puzzles me.

 

[boredmale]

Horrible trade, but Tkachuk was the right selection.

On the subject of the trade, if I was a GM, I would put tons of conditions on a draft pick to make sure I get fair value for it. In the hypothetical scenario with Colorado I might say if the pick ends up top 10, Colorado would owe me a 2nd round pick back

Another scenario I always thought would be smart is put a condition if the pick is top 10, I have the right to trade that pick down to the 11th spot(hypothetically going on 4th overall, I could trade the 4th for thr 6th pick and a 2nd rounder, the 6th for the 9th pick and a 2nd rounder and the 9th for the 11th pick and a 3rd rounder)

 

[ismelofhockey]

Keeping the 2019 pick would have been gambling hard. The 31st place team has a 50.6% chance of picking 4th. It is the most likely outcome by a significant amount. That's if you finish last.

Keeping the 2018 pick was the most logical decision, the fact that Dorion received so much criticism for that decision still puzzles me.

You're puzzled by the fact he received criticism for giving up 1 in 5 odds of drafting Hughes in order to draft a winger (albeit a talented one)?
It was a terrible move. What's worse is that, as his recent comments about competing for playoff spot next season confirm, it shows he is completely incapable of judging his own team's ability. Tkachuk likely isn't much better, if at all, than who will be picked 4th this year.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Not sure how we can even say this before we know who the 4th OA pick is, nevermind how they perform in the NHL.

 

[Korpse]

You're puzzled by the fact he received criticism for giving up 50-50 odds of drafting Hughes in order to draft a winger (albeit a talented one)?
It was a terrible move. What's worse is that, as his recent comments about competing for playoff spot next season confirm, it shows he is completely incapable of judging his own team's ability.

1st-18.5%
2nd-16.5%
3rd-14.4%
4th-50.6%

Thats IF you finished last.

So yes. The criticism to use the pick last June still doesn't make a lot of sense, when even with the best possible odds its most likely you would be picking in the same spot.

My intention wasn't to talk about Dorion and I didn't see those comments but given your inability to understand my original post, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you didn't fully understand his comments.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Keeping the 2019 pick would have been gambling hard. The 31st place team has a 50.6% chance of picking 4th. It is the most likely outcome by a significant amount. That's if you finish last.

Keeping the 2018 pick was the most logical decision, the fact that Dorion received so much criticism for that decision still puzzles me.

Because people don’t realize how the draft lottery odds work. All season it was “You gave up Hughes for Tkachuk”, when it was very unlikely the Avs ever ended up with Hughes

 

[FlameChampion]

It worked for the Senators. I think the original gamble on the Duchene trade was a foolish move by Dorion. I am glad it didnt turn out too poorly for the Senators fan base. They have been through enough.

 

[Yackiberg8]

1st-18.5%
2nd-16.5%
3rd-14.4%
4th-50.6%

Thats IF you finished last.

So yes. The criticism to use the pick last June still doesn't make a lot of sense, when even with the best possible odds its most likely you would be picking in the same spot.

My intention wasn't to talk about Dorion and I didn't see those comments but given your inability to understand my original post, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you didn't fully understand his comments.

At the very worst they would end up picking in the same spot. Everyone knew they were finishing last and they did by a large margin.

I’d say taking the gamble to get Hughes or Kakko would’ve been the right play.

 

[Eltuna]

I think keeping the 2018 1st was the “wrong move” but it worked out in the end. Using hindsight, we know that Ottawa was the worst team in the league. This means that Dorion had the choice between the 2018 4th overall pick, or a 50/50 shot at pick 1-3/4. One is guaranteed 4th one is 4th at worst with a 50% chance at a better pick.

This is using hindsight though so it’s not really fair, even though most had pegged Ottawa to finish last, the regular season rarely goes that way. It was possible that Ottawa could’ve finished higher in the standings which Dorion obviously couldn’t know.

I don’t think the lottery changes that it wasn’t a great decision though, it’s all chance. It’s not as though if Colorado won Hughes Dorion should be fired and if they dropped to 4th he should be praised. The only way to look at it is to look at the value of that pick before the lottery, as that’s the only thing any manager can control.

If I had the choice of trading the 2019 4th overall pick for the best odds at the 2020 1st overall for example, that’s a trade I’m making all day.

 

[Korpse]

At the very worst they would end up picking in the same spot. Everyone knew they were finishing last and they did by a large margin.

I’d say taking the gamble to get Hughes or Kakko would’ve been the right play.

April 2019 that was the worst scenario for the pick. June 2018 not so much, regardless of how you felt about the team. If you want to take that gamble that's fine but that should be where you open yourself up to criticism but the internet being the internet logic is on the back burner and memes are the top priority.

 

[BankStreetParade]

At the very worst they would end up picking in the same spot. Everyone knew they were finishing last and they did by a large margin.

I’d say taking the gamble to get Hughes or Kakko would’ve been the right play.

They finished last in points but they had more ROW than LA, NJ, BUF, NYR and tied for ROW with DET and VAN. The difference is those teams, especially VAN and NYR, had far more loser points and extra points from shootout wins.

 

[ViktorBaeArvidsson]

Cozens and Byram both seem like guys I see Colorado taking, but idk, Tkachuk is proving a lot of people wrong, it gonna be awhile until we can truly determine who’s the better player.

 

[Yackiberg8]

April 2019 that was the worst scenario for the pick. June 2018 not so much, regardless of how you felt about the team. If you want to take that gamble that's fine but that should be where you open yourself up to criticism but the internet being the internet logic is on the back burner and memes are the top priority.

In June 2018 I would say most people would’ve predicted the Senators to be last and again, that is what happened by a large margin.

That is the type of logic other franchises use while the Senators management and most of their fans have been lacking logic for quite a while.

 

[Yackiberg8]

They finished last in points but they had more ROW than LA, NJ, BUF, NYR and tied for ROW with DET and VAN. The difference is those teams, especially VAN and NYR, had far more loser points and extra points from shootout wins.

The difference is the Sens finished last by 7 points. The way points are awarded didn’t change.

 

[Korpse]

In June 2018 I would say most people would’ve predicted the Senators to be last and again, that is what happened by a large margin.

That is the type of logic other franchises use while the Senators management and most of their fans have been lacking logic for quite a while.

Do you understand probability?

 

[Rebels57]

Dorion and Ottawa got extremely lucky the lottery balls fell the way they did. As it stands, I would take Tkachuk over 4th overall this year. Doesn't mean 4th overall won't be better in the long run, but if I had to pick, i'm taking Tkachuk right now.

 

[SpezDispenser]

I feel, after losing the lottery last night, that Ottawa dodged a huge bullet. Tkachuk is fantastic.

 

[Akrapovince]

So much of this is KNOWING a team with Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone & Matt Duchene for a majority of the season would result in a last place team.

The 50% of picking through 1-3 and 50% of picking 4 coin flip gamble was what it was- a coin flip, which resulted on Dorion calling heads and the coin landing heads.

But the fact is, the REAL bet that made them take Tkachuk at #4 is that I’m sure Dorion didn’t think his team was going to finish 31st. (And again, even if they did- only coin flip to move up anyways)