Brady Tkachuk vs 2019 4th Overall

Gnashville

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Well at least the Sens got a first rounder this year 19th overall and two B propects back for Duchene deadline. Not to mention that if Columbus signs Duchene ,Sens get another first rounder from Columbus.
Hockey gods pay Ottawa back after saving them from a lottery disaster by having Columbus reach the Cup Finals making the pick either 30th of 31st overall!!
 
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Eltuna

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I would love to see a team trade the 4th overall for a future first rounder. Just asking for trouble. It’s amazing how the slightest odds of something good happening gloss over reality.
I’m talking about if next years 2020 pick was a known quantity. For example, if it was known that Ottawa would finish last next year, Colorado would absolutely consider trading this 4th overall for that pick. At worst, you get the same asset that you currently possess, with the potential reward being huge. Genuine question, would you trade that pick for this years pick if you knew Ottawa would finish last next year? I suspect not, Colorado might be a bit trickier as they have been a playoff team for two years in a row and should try building a contender as quickly as possible, which the earlier pick would provide.

Ottawa of course did not have this guarantee last summer. Even though they were the worst team on paper by a considerable margin, sports often aren’t so calculable.

This is all assuming that all drafts are the same however, which we know is untrue. Ottawa may have liked Tkachuk more than everyone but Hughes like Dorion stated, which would make the risk much less from his end.

Basically, there were two gambles at play, Ottawa gambled that they were not going to finish last, thus they had potential to not give Colorado a top 4 pick. They lost that bet obviously, but they still had the complete gamble of the lottery to fall back on, which went in their favour. Honestly I think Dorion really made the only move he could as his hands were extremely tied. The real error was the initial trade, and he was going to lose an incredibly valuable asset either way.
 

Habsfunk

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It was definitely the right move keeping last year's pick. Giving it up means you think you think you have no chance at competing at all and sends a negative message to the team to start the season. It's a terrible decision if you're the GM. You should never enter the season expecting to finish last in the league, no matter how bad your team is.
 
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ismelofhockey

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It was definitely the right move keeping last year's pick. Giving it up means you think you think you have no chance at competing at all and sends a negative message to the team to start the season. It's a terrible decision if you're the GM. You should never enter the season expecting to finish last in the league, no matter how bad your team is.

This, and what another poster said about drafting a player in 2018 allowing the prospect one more year of development than a 2019 pick thereby kickstarting the rebuild, are solid arguments in favour of Dorion's choice. They can still be argued against, but they make Dorion's choice seem much less like a gamble.
 
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supsens

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Well I don't know what to say. If the "plan" was to finish dead last in a year where the team didn't have its own first round pick, I dare say that wasn't a good plan. However if the plan was to pick Tkachuk and compete for a playoff spot, well that didn't go so well either.

GMs being fired and people's right to complain may have zero to do with the topic, but it has everything to do with the conversation you decided to butt into. The initial poster I had responded to felt incredulous that Dorion had been criticized for his decision to give Colorado the team's 2019 pick.

And finally, the fact that it was a short term decision was your argument, not mine. You claimed that Tkachuk's magical "legendary" reputation influenced the team into picking him in order to sell more tickets. My argument is that they shouldn't have based their pick on selling tickets short term, but on building the best team possible and running the franchise properly. It is precisely because they have mismanaged the franchise that they can't sell tickets.

No one said short term, again your making that up. The plan was to get the best player they could over two drafts with one pick and they did. everything in pro sports is about selling people stuff your kidding yourself if you think otherwise. I said 3rd and 4th overall this year do not have the same ‘value’ and they don’t.

I said it’s foolish to try and pretend the right move was wrong. Everyone knows it, the math says they made the right move and the results say they made the right move.
Saying you have the right to complain does not change anything, your wrong and trying to change the debate to weather or not you have the right to complain just so you can pretend your winning some sort of debate, again it’s not if you have the right to complain it’s how foolish you look doing so, no matter how many GM’s have been fired
 
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ismelofhockey

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No one said short term, again your making that up. The plan was to get the best player they could over two drafts with one pick and they did. everything in pro sports is about selling people stuff your kidding yourself if you think otherwise. I said 3rd and 4th overall this year do not have the same ‘value’ and they don’t.

I said it’s foolish to try and pretend the right move was wrong. Everyone knows it, the math says they made the right move and the results say they made the right move.
Saying you have the right to complain does not change anything, your wrong and trying to change the debate to weather or not you have the right to complain just so you can pretend your winning some sort of debate, again it’s not if you have the right to complain it’s how foolish you look doing so, no matter how many GM’s have been fired

I think I've said all I needed to say, and nothing in this post is worth addressing.
 

Halla

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this is the best possible scenario for the sens...if that was pick 1 or 2, it woulda been real bad.

its still pretty bad they gave away the pick for duchene, and then moved him a year later for a late pick
 

danielpalfredsson

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at the time of the trade the pick looked to be in the late teens +, sure it sucks we didnt get a home run 1st overall but the 4th overall pick will likely be a good player and colorado can now (and should) use their own first on spencer knight if availible while filling a need at forward at 4.

The way I see the original Duchene trade is that Karlsson had 1.5 years left on his deal, so that was the Senators window. With Melnyk's budget, it would have been very difficult to re-up Karlsson, Turris, Stone, etc and compete under 68 million in player salary with Phaneuf and Ryan on the books as well.

I think there's a chance Dorion looked at it like he expected the Sens to compete for a playoff spot, and if there were competing for a playoff spot at the deadline, they weren't liquidating Turris who was a UFA. At the same time, they did not want to extend Turris. He was a sunk cost they expected they wouldn't be in a position to trade at the deadline. It was also pretty well hinted at by some people that he believed the addition of a legitimate center in Duchene would transform the team into a contender.

Meaning, he probably thought he was giving up a mid 1st, Bowers, and a 3rd to upgrade Turris to Duchene. (Because again, Turris was a sunk cost). Then, if Karlsson didn't re-sign and the team had to rebuild the next year, he could have gotten back the equivalent of that mid 1st, Bowers, and a 3rd by trading Duchene away at the 2019 deadline. So he would have upgraded from Turris to Duchene for effectively almost nothing asset wise. (Since again, Dorion probably didn't expect to be in a position to sell at the 2018 deadline with Turris).

We all know that the losing streak started, "Gretzky was traded", and everything else is history. I think that might have been the logic with the trade at the time though, Turris was a sunk cost as a UFA they weren't going to trade if they were in line for the playoffs, and Bowers/mid 1st/3rd could be recouped next year if needed by flipping Duchene at the 2019 deadline.
 

Makar Goes Fast

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The way I see the original Duchene trade is that Karlsson had 1.5 years left on his deal, so that was the Senators window. With Melnyk's budget, it would have been very difficult to re-up Karlsson, Turris, Stone, etc and compete under 68 million in player salary with Phaneuf and Ryan on the books as well.

I think there's a chance Dorion looked at it like he expected the Sens to compete for a playoff spot, and if there were competing for a playoff spot at the deadline, they weren't liquidating Turris who was a UFA. At the same time, they did not want to extend Turris. He was a sunk cost they expected they wouldn't be in a position to trade at the deadline. It was also pretty well hinted at by some people that he believed the addition of a legitimate center in Duchene would transform the team into a contender.

Meaning, he probably thought he was giving up a mid 1st, Bowers, and a 3rd to upgrade Turris to Duchene. (Because again, Turris was a sunk cost). Then, if Karlsson didn't re-sign and the team had to rebuild the next year, he could have gotten back the equivalent of that mid 1st, Bowers, and a 3rd by trading Duchene away at the 2019 deadline. So he would have upgraded from Turris to Duchene for effectively almost nothing asset wise. (Since again, Dorion probably didn't expect to be in a position to sell at the 2018 deadline with Turris).

We all know that the losing streak started, "Gretzky was traded", and everything else is history. I think that might have been the logic with the trade at the time though, Turris was a sunk cost as a UFA they weren't going to trade if they were in line for the playoffs, and Bowers/mid 1st/3rd could be recouped next year if needed by flipping Duchene at the 2019 deadline.

yeah absolutely, some would argue that upgrading Duchene from Turris for what it cost was alot and even if you got the similar return to Duchene as a UFA you just hit zero, but i do respect GM's who go for it and try to hit that next level. Unfortunately for Ottawa fans it didn't work, and unfortunately for myself, I had to root for Ottawa to lose this year.

The way you lay it out does make sense and obviously hindsight is 20/20 it's hard to fault Ottawa for making the deal at the time even if it was expensive.
 

ImNeverWrong

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sweeet vindication for sens fans and dorion when they were the butt end of the joke for a year! tkachuk will be better than anyone that goes 4th overall this year.
 
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GeeoffBrown

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Keeping the 4 was the safe play

-2018 player usually becomes a player sooner than a 2019 player
-there was no guarantee that the Sens would finish last in 2019. There were several teams that were intentionally icing bad teams, as well as teams that are always bad
-if they did finish last, they probably don't pick 1st overall anyway
-Brady is a beast
 

Corky

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And it's even more amazing that people think a defence led by Cody Ceci, Mark Borowiecki, and Dylan De Melo would have any chance of finishing anything but last in the NHL. Half the defencemen were rookies or sophomores.

The team had finished second to last the year before, and that was before it transformed Brassard into futures, Hoffman into Boeddker, Phaneuf into Gaborik, and had already decided to trade Karlsson...

The fact they traded Hoffman for Boeddker tells you all you need to know about Dorion's master plan.

Remember when the general consensus was that the Habs would finish bottom 3 in the entire league? Ended the season with 96 points, which is a higher total than 2 teams in the West who made the playoffs.

Remember when the Tampa Bay Lightning, after equalizing the all-time regular season win record, were about to be swept by the 8th placed Columbus Blue Jackets?

There is no such thing as certainty in sport. For all we know, Ottawa could have finished top 10 this year. Dorion made the right move and its not even close. That’s not even taking into account how great Brady turned out to be.

It’s called statistics for anyone willing to look it up.
 
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ismelofhockey

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It’s called statistics for anyone willing to look it up.

Yes, it's true. Anything can happen. However if they were using statistics, then they should have bet on the Sens finishing last.

Luckily for us, there are people whose job it is to calculate every scenario, every possibility. And those experts predicted Ottawa would finish last. That means the odds were against Dorion.
Vegas Insider: Ottawa's over under is dead last The next worse teams were all given 75 at least, showing that Vegas didn't really think it was close.

Bovada and Mybookie also put the odds in favour of the Sens finishing dead last: 2018-19 NHL Regular Season Points Tracker: Best Odds for All 31 Teams | SBD

As you can see I followed your advice. I looked it up. The statistics say Ottawa was likeliest to finish dead last. But even if they hadn't, they would have had a shot at Hughes or Kakko anyway.
 

The Devilish Buffoon

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Man, if that came true :laugh:

Wouldnt be the worst thing in the world, as Duchene would be far more likely to re-sign if they go on a deep run and that would bring us an additional 1st

Also, difference between 19 and 31 isnt as significant as difference between 1 and 4
 

HSF

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Yes, it's true. Anything can happen. However if they were using statistics, then they should have bet on the Sens finishing last.

Luckily for us, there are people whose job it is to calculate every scenario, every possibility. And those experts predicted Ottawa would finish last. That means the odds were against Dorion.
Vegas Insider: Ottawa's over under is dead last The next worse teams were all given 75 at least, showing that Vegas didn't really think it was close.

Bovada and Mybookie also put the odds in favour of the Sens finishing dead last: 2018-19 NHL Regular Season Points Tracker: Best Odds for All 31 Teams | SBD

As you can see I followed your advice. I looked it up. The statistics say Ottawa was likeliest to finish dead last. But even if they hadn't, they would have had a shot at Hughes or Kakko anyway.
The odds are still against you if you finish last
 

Gnashville

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Man, if that came true :laugh:
Even a Conference Finals would make it a 28th or 29th pick.
Best case scenario for Ottawa is Columbus losing next round (or blowing a 3-0 lead) Duchene resigning Sharks making the Cup Finals and Karlsson resigns in SJ
They would get 5 1st rounders that way.
In a vacuum trading down from 4th to 19th or even later but acquiring another 1st in the process is not too bad of a trade.
 

ismelofhockey

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Oct 22, 2017
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The odds are still against you if you finish last

Right, so let me say this again. This isn't Hughes vs Tkachuk. It's Hughes or Kakko or a player similar to Tkachuk vs Tkachuk.
If I tell you I'll give you $100 (Tkachuk) today, or $100 (Cozens, Dach, Turcotte, Byram...) with a 20-30% chance at $500 (Hughes, Kakko) tomorrow, which will you pick?
 
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obey86

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Right, so let me say this again. This isn't Hughes vs Tkachuk. It's Hughes or Kakko or a player similar to Tkachuk vs Tkachuk.
If I tell you I'll give you $100 (Tkachuk) today, or $100 (Cozens, Dach, Turcotte, Byram...) with a 20-30% chance at $500 (Hughes, Kakko) tomorrow, which will you pick?

No, it’s Hughes or Kakko or a player similar to Tkachuk or a player worse than Tkachuk vs Tkachuk.

It’s more like you can have $100 now or wait a year and either get $120, $80, or $100.

No matter how much you say it, there was no guarantee they would finish last in the league. A couple pucks bouncing differently and they aren’t in last.
 

ismelofhockey

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Finishing second to last still gives the team a decent shot at Hughes or Kakko. And yes, it is possible that Tkachuk will be better than every player in the 2019 top 10 not named Hughes or Kakko. It's possible he will outshine even Hughes and Kakko. But those also seem like slim odds to me. Dorion may be proven right with time. But I wouldn't have taken those odds a year ago. It looks better now that they didn't win the lottery. But they were most likely to finish last in the league (they had finished second last the year before, and that was with Brassard, Hoffman, Karlsson and Phaneuf, and Vegas recognized this), they had a really good shot at either Hughes or Kakko, and the 2019 top 10 isn't exactly chopped liver. A player similar in value to Tkachuk does imply the possibility that they would get someone worse. But look at the prospects this year. Wouldn't you say the rather slight risk of getting someone slightly worse is outweighed by the much larger opportunity of landing Hughes or Kakko? I definitely would. Not saying it's a guarantee, but Dorion definitely should not have been above criticism for his decision which is the main point of this entire conversation. It was a controversial move, and therefore it opened him up to criticism as any controversial move will do.
 

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The way I see the original Duchene trade is that Karlsson had 1.5 years left on his deal, so that was the Senators window. With Melnyk's budget, it would have been very difficult to re-up Karlsson, Turris, Stone, etc and compete under 68 million in player salary with Phaneuf and Ryan on the books as well.

I think there's a chance Dorion looked at it like he expected the Sens to compete for a playoff spot, and if there were competing for a playoff spot at the deadline, they weren't liquidating Turris who was a UFA. At the same time, they did not want to extend Turris. He was a sunk cost they expected they wouldn't be in a position to trade at the deadline. It was also pretty well hinted at by some people that he believed the addition of a legitimate center in Duchene would transform the team into a contender.

Meaning, he probably thought he was giving up a mid 1st, Bowers, and a 3rd to upgrade Turris to Duchene. (Because again, Turris was a sunk cost). Then, if Karlsson didn't re-sign and the team had to rebuild the next year, he could have gotten back the equivalent of that mid 1st, Bowers, and a 3rd by trading Duchene away at the 2019 deadline. So he would have upgraded from Turris to Duchene for effectively almost nothing asset wise. (Since again, Dorion probably didn't expect to be in a position to sell at the 2018 deadline with Turris).
One huge error in the chain of events was Dorion not being involved in the third part of the deal and just leaving it to Sakic who was playing with house money on Turris.

Whatever becomes of Tkachuk his performance beyond this year is irrelevant tothe Avs. It was Dorion's choice and Tkachuk didn't get the Senators out of the cellar and the Avalanche got the best range of picks.

If this is the Senators biggest win this year, the team MVP is an air compressor.

Wouldnt be the worst thing in the world, as Duchene would be far more likely to re-sign if they go on a deep run and that would bring us an additional 1st

And we'll see how hypocritical all this "We would root for another team to lose!" business is.
 
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