Brady Tkachuk vs 2019 4th Overall

[Yackiberg8]

Do you understand probability?

Sure do.

 

[Iceman]

Tkachuk but it still wasn’t a gamble that they should’ve made.

 

[Ceremony]

Not sure how we can even say this before we know who the 4th OA pick is, nevermind how they perform in the NHL.

You appear to be new to HFBoards

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

Tkachuk is a good player but he gets overrated by Ottawa media because he's from a "hockey family," and that's too bad. He still plays too much on the edge. If he concentrated simply on hockey play, he'd be bloody well capable of 35-40. Add some diving/embellishment (on top of what he does) and he could draw so many more penalties.

I preferred Mike Hoffman, but Brady will be fine. He must outproduce at the Avs 4th pick at similar age for the rest of their careers though.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Tkachuk but it still wasn’t a gamble that they should’ve made.

This.

Ok result, but it very well may not have turned out that way. Still a bad risk to take imo, even if it worked out

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

Tkachuk but it still wasn’t a gamble that they should’ve made.

It wasn't a gamble though.

They made the smart decision.

Tkachuk was the right move at the time considering the odds.

The best odds they could have given themselves to get a better pick this year was 48% That means they were most likely to pick in the same spot if they finished dead last.

so even in the best case scenario, they would still most likely not improve their draft position.

2018 and 2019 are both good drafts. Neither one stands head and shoulders over the other one. Its not like 4th in this years draft is better than 4th in last years.

 

[Just Linda]

I'd take Tkachuk over Cozens or Dach anyday. I have Tkachuk in the same tier as Byram or Podkolzin but would take those two over the winger because of position. I don't necessarily think the Sens made the right choice in picking Tkachuk over this year's 4th but it would be too huge of a gap in players imho

 

[Sting]

Tkachuk is a good player but he gets overrated by Ottawa media because he's from a "hockey family," and that's too bad. He still plays too much on the edge. If he concentrated simply on hockey play, he'd be bloody well capable of 35-40. Add some diving/embellishment (on top of what he does) and he could draw so many more penalties.

I preferred Mike Hoffman, but Brady will be fine. He must outproduce at the Avs 4th pick at similar age for the rest of their careers though.

I'm sorry what, you preferred Mike Hoffman over Brady Tkachuk?

As a long time sens Fan, and general fan of Mike Hoffman throughout the allegations that came out last year, I cannot disagree with that opinion more.

Tkachuk is 19 and drives plays towards the net already.

Mike Hoffman has a world-class shot but is weak defensively and relies on others to create offense. Let's also consider he is turning 30 later this year.

There is no question as to who I'd want on my team when the playoffs begin...not even taking into account the age gap.

 

[Lemonlimey]

Byram and Dach have higher ceilings than Brady. We've seen Tkachuk in the NHL already so is favored by most but the #4 this year has special potential.

 

[Korpse]

Sure do.

It’s really not coming through that you do.

It’s fair if people wanted to predict Ottawa finishing last but it was never 100%. I’m pretty sure any model would suggest the chances of any specific team finishing last is less than 50%. You can sit there and say you knew Ottawa would finish last and I can just as easily say I knew the 31st place team would be picking 4th.

If you want to go back to June 2018 you would have not only think of the lottery odds but also factor in the odds of Ottawa finishing last. That would significantly decrease the odds that the pick would be top 3. 18.5% chance at 1st easily drops below 10%. I can’t think of any scenario where a year out it is logical to assume any teams pick is a top 3 pick. Of course there’s always a chance though even in the most likely of scenarios it very unlikely.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Dorion has a very long list of dumb moves that he has made since becoming GM. However, taking Tkachuk instead of deferring the pick was not a dumb move

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Tkachuk anyday of the week

 

[Yackiberg8]

It’s really not coming through that you do.

It’s fair if people wanted to predict Ottawa finishing last but it was never 100%. I’m pretty sure any model would suggest the chances of any specific team finishing last is less than 50%. You can sit there and say you knew Ottawa would finish last and I can just as easily say I knew the 31st place team would be picking 4th.

If you want to go back to June 2018 you would have not only think of the lottery odds but also factor in the odds of Ottawa finishing last. That would significantly decrease the odds that the pick would be top 3. 18.5% chance at 1st easily drops below 10%. I can’t think of any scenario where a year out it is logical to assume any teams pick is a top 3 pick. Of course there’s always a chance though even in the most likely of scenarios it very unlikely.

It was extremely likely Ottawa would have a top 5 pick this year. It was also likely they would have a great chance at a top 2 pick with two phenomenal players.

Basically a low risk, high reward play. One you should take if you are an NHL GM.

 

[not a troll]

I'll let Sens fans feel like they "won" this tiny part of the trade if it makes them feel better. The Avs need a 2C or potential top pair LHD more than they need a 45 point winger.

 

[Korpse]

It was extremely likely Ottawa would have a top 5 pick this year. It was also likely they would have a great chance at a top 2 pick with two phenomenal players.

Basically a low risk, high reward play. One you should take if you are an NHL GM.

See this is why I think you don't understand probability. 35% is not likely nor a great chance and that's assuming Ottawa finished last. You can't call it low risk because the pick is likely to be in the same range and then turn around and call it high reward because there's a slight possibility you win the draft lottery.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

potentially a Byrum and Makar pairing for the next decade is simply absurd. Sens having Tkachuk has also turned great... win win for both teams but Id imagine Sens are extremely excited they have Tkachuk and wouldn't ever change that if they could

 

[Paris in Flames]

Only if the Sens pick fell in the top 2 this year would I think Brady was the wrong pick. I would take Brady 100/100 over the 4th overall pick this year.

Overall it's still not a great trade but they managed to save face a little and I'm honestly pretty happy for the fanbase. They've had a shitty year. No need to make it worse.

 

[violaswallet]

Ex-ante (at the time of the trade, the expectation was that the pick would be like 15th overall per se), the trade was smart. Probably a lack of foresight to not specify a lottery restriction...

Ex-ante at the time of the draft pick decision, I'm not sure what was the right move, although I feel like due to optics that they had to do what they did; otherwise, they were implying that they expected to finish bottom 5 in the league.

Ex-post, I don't see much inference about the actual lottery outcomes; it was all luck! The narrative would be completely different say if Col got 1 or 4.

 

[DFF]

Tkachuk is a good player but he gets overrated by Ottawa media because he's from a "hockey family," and that's too bad. He still plays too much on the edge. If he concentrated simply on hockey play, he'd be bloody well capable of 35-40. Add some diving/embellishment (on top of what he does) and he could draw so many more penalties.

I preferred Mike Hoffman, but Brady will be fine. He must outproduce at the Avs 4th pick at similar age for the rest of their careers though.

You prefer Hoffman over tkachuk?

Lmao

Hoffman is a 30 yrs old one trick pony

 

[DFF]

I'll let Sens fans feel like they "won" this tiny part of the trade if it makes them feel better. The Avs need a 2C or potential top pair LHD more than they need a 45 point winger.

Lmao @ the 45 pt winger

 

[Yackiberg8]

See this is why I think you don't understand probability. 35% is not likely nor a great chance and that's assuming Ottawa finished last. You can't call it low risk because the pick is likely to be in the same range and then turn around and call it high reward because there's a slight possibility you win the draft lottery.

The problem with your answers is you don’t know the probability of the Senators finishing in each place in the standings. It would be extremely hard to figure out, i don’t think anyone has come up with an accurate way to determine this. Please inform me if I’m wrong.

What we do know is they would’ve had a 20% chance at #1 and a 50% chance of top 3. The best chance in the league at both and the worst they could finish was 4th. If Colorado got a top 2 pick, which the Senators were fortunate didn’t happen. You and all Sens fans would be singing a much different tune.

Prior to the season what do you think the probability of them finishing in the bottom 3 was? Imo it was quite high.

Bottom line is that they were the team most likely to finish last and it happened. They would then have a 50% shot at picking top 3 or 50% having the same pick. Worth the gamble. If they miraculously played a bit better than they anticipated and were in line to pick 5th or 6th (still have a lottery shot) then that’s a risk you should be taking.

 

[Korpse]

Lmao @ the 45 pt winger

Nobody tell him it's 7 more points than Mackinnon scored when he was 15 days older.

 

[topshelf15]

Lmao @ the 45 pt winger

Lol in 70 games....

 

[Samsquanch]

I'll let Sens fans feel like they "won" this tiny part of the trade if it makes them feel better. The Avs need a 2C or potential top pair LHD more than they need a 45 point winger.

Lol. User name does not check out..

By 45pt winger, I guess you mean teen aged rookie Power forward Tkachuk, who happened to score 45pts in his first 71gp (52pt pace)?

But anyways, Im sure the Avs will prefer whoever they're going to get at #4 this year though, you're probably right.....

 

[swiftwin]

You're puzzled by the fact he received criticism for giving up 1 in 5 odds of drafting Hughes in order to draft a winger (albeit a talented one)?
.

Fist of all, that's assuming the Sens would even finish 31st in the first place, and yes, 1 in 5 is not very good odds, as we saw yesterday. To not draft Tkachuk last year would have been a very risky gamble.