Brady Tkachuk vs 2019 4th Overall

[obey86]

They had already decided to trade Karlsson. They knew he wasn't going to be there. They knew the defence would not be NHL quality.

And yes, anything is possible. But we're talking about playing the odds. The odds were stacked against them, and it's only by sheer luck that it wasn't a complete disaster. Dorion deserved all the criticism that was lobbed at him.

You keep saying they should have played the odds but I don’t think you know what that means in this context.

You realize the choice was keeping the 2018 #4 pick they already had in hand OR rolling the dice that they would finish last in 2019 (not a guarantee no matter how much you think it was) while also getting a pick other than 2019 #4 even though statistically the last place team is most likely to finish with the #4 pick (the odds!!!).

 

[BKarchitect]

Probably about a wash long-run if the Avs make a good pick (there are several top notch choices to be available), but it worked for the Sens, they got a year of great development in Brady so he’s at least a year closer to being a dominate force than anybody that can be picked this year. For the Avs, identifying and selecting a key natural center may be a more pressing need long turn so it works fine for them too, even if Brady should inherently have more value in a vacuum given his play in the NHL this season.

Anyways, glad it makes some Sens fans feel better but really doesn’t change anything about the final deal. Ultimately this isn’t about Tkachuk versus the #4 pick it’s about Tkachuk and 1.5 years of Duchene rental versus Tkachuk and a boatload of other assets. This should be a Sens forum topic discussing two major building blocks for the franchise.

 

[supsens]

Probably about a wash long-run if the Avs make a good pick (there are several top notch choices to be available), but it worked for the Sens, they got a year of great development in Brady so he’s at least a year closer to being a dominate force than anybody that can be picked this year. For the Avs, identifying and selecting a key natural center may be a more pressing need long turn so it works fine for them too, even if Brady should inherently have more value in a vacuum given his play in the NHL this season.

Anyways, glad it makes some Sens fans feel better but really doesn’t change anything about the final deal. Ultimately this isn’t about Tkachuk versus the #4 pick it’s about Tkachuk and 1.5 years of Duchene rental versus Tkachuk and a boatload of other assets. This should be a Sens forum topic discussing two major building blocks for the franchise.

Im sorry to say but this thread is 100% Brady vrs #4, a few people can't seem to focus on anything but being negative, this involves going off topic in a continual campaign to drag the team through the dirt. But I guess dragging others down is a lift to some fans.

 

[PuckSeparator]

Ottawa made the right decision, imo. We also have to consider the benefit of having Brady learn the NHL game for 1 year and how valuable that is or can be to the Ottawa Senators going forward. The opportunity cost of time and development is very real and there is a certain value placed on it by NHL managers that almost always gets ignored by fans.

 

[ismelofhockey]

You keep saying they should have played the odds but I don’t think you know what that means in this context.

You realize the choice was keeping the 2018 #4 pick they already had in hand OR rolling the dice that they would finish last in 2019 (not a guarantee no matter how much you think it was) while also getting a pick other than 2019 #4 even though statistically the last place team is most likely to finish with the #4 pick (the odds!!!).

Yep, the choice was to keep the pick they had in hand, versus getting a 1 in 3 shot at a franchise player (Hughes, Kakko) and a pretty much guaranteed pick of a player similar in value to Tkachuk. Even if they finished second to last, they would still have a 1 in 4 shot at a franchise player, and a pretty much guaranteed shot at a player of similar value to Tkachuk.

So basically 100% Tkachuk vs 25%-35% Hughes-Kakko + 65%-75% Podkolzin, Byram, Dach...

 

[ismelofhockey]

They stated last year the only player they would want over Brady is Hughes so yah it's 18.5.

The sens are a business and they are struggling to sell tickets there is almost zero chance 3rd and 4th OA have the same 'value' as the legandary Tkachuk name. Even a guy like Kakko does not have hockey folklore to follow him around and as you can see he is not available anyway just like the odds said.
They made the right choice, hindsight says they did, yet you think they deserve criticism for it? I guess thats why you don't work in the NHL

They might have thought the only player better than Tkachuk was Hughes, but they also thought this year's roster would not finish last (hence Hoffman for Boedkker). They also think that the team will compete for the playoffs next year... Not everything they believe is correct.

And you're right. They are struggling to sell tickets. Probably because the team seems to be run by a circus, and they're being, rightfully, criticized for it. Making short term decisions to sell tickets is precisely what a well-run franchise shouldn't do. But they do work in the NHL, don't they... guess that means we can never criticize their decisions... I wonder why GMs ever get fired...

 

[supsens]

They might have thought the only player better than Tkachuk was Hughes, but they also thought this year's roster would not finish last (hence Hoffman for Boedkker). They also think that the team will compete for the playoffs next year... Not everything they believe is correct.

And you're right. They are struggling to sell tickets. Probably because the team seems to be run by a circus, and they're being, rightfully, criticized for it. Making short term decisions to sell tickets is precisely what a well-run franchise shouldn't do. But they do work in the NHL, don't they... guess that means we can never criticize their decisions... I wonder why GMs ever get fired...

You have the right to cry about whatever you want in life but pouting about making the right choice where everything went according to the plan looks foolish. GM's being fired and peoples 'right' to complain has zero to do with the topic, it doesn't make you right nor does it give you cred.
Also it's far from a short term dicision not sure why your pretending it is.

 

[ismelofhockey]

You have the right to cry about whatever you want in life but pouting about making the right choice where everything went according to the plan looks foolish. GM's being fired and peoples 'right' to complain has zero to do with the topic, it doesn't make you right nor does it give you cred.
Also it's far from a short term dicision not sure why your pretending it is.

Well I don't know what to say. If the "plan" was to finish dead last in a year where the team didn't have its own first round pick, I dare say that wasn't a good plan. However if the plan was to pick Tkachuk and compete for a playoff spot, well that didn't go so well either.

GMs being fired and people's right to complain may have zero to do with the topic, but it has everything to do with the conversation you decided to butt into. The initial poster I had responded to felt incredulous that Dorion had been criticized for his decision to give Colorado the team's 2019 pick.

And finally, the fact that it was a short term decision was your argument, not mine. You claimed that Tkachuk's magical "legendary" reputation influenced the team into picking him in order to sell more tickets. My argument is that they shouldn't have based their pick on selling tickets short term, but on building the best team possible and running the franchise properly. It is precisely because they have mismanaged the franchise that they can't sell tickets.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I think if Melnyk does things right this time Tkachuk will be a force and face of the Sens for many, many years to come.

 

[SensFactor]

Well at least the Sens got a first rounder this year 19th overall and two B propects back for Duchene deadline. Not to mention that if Columbus signs Duchene ,Sens get another first rounder from Columbus.

 

[SensFactor]

Brady Tkatchuk is like his father and brother.. The force is strong with the Tkatchuk's

 

[Kevin27NYI]

Brady Tkachuk would be my choice.

 

[Lemonlimey]

In a vacuum I'd take Dach and Byram over Tkachuk because of position, but considering everything you can't just punt Tkachuk to the Avs if you're the Sens last year....

Exactly so, don’t understand anyone believing Ottawa was taking a gamble, they did the opposite and played it safe keeping the pick to save face. With no player even chosen at this year’s #4 yet we can’t compare, but once Byram/Dach/Podkolzin come on stage to wear an Avs sweater the trade is complete and a higher ceiling player goes Colorado’s way.

 

[Fugazy]

I'm still taking Brady Tkachuk.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

If i'm trying to find a positive in all this, i'm just glad Tkachuk got to live with, learn from and watch Mark Stone go to work on a day to day basis, even if it was for just a little while.

Same thing when Chabot had about 1.5 years to watch and learn from Karlsson... superstars leave impressions on young players and Tkachuk is an absolute beast (think prime Simmonds mixed with the agitating affects of Marchand)

 

[WHISTLERNATE]

I'd take Tkachuk over Podkolzin/Turcotte/Dach/Byram/Cozens. Basically anyone aside from Kakko or Hughes. Sens dodged a bullet here for sure.

 

[Paper]

Butterfly effect. Without Tkachuk the Senators probably finish 33rd or 34th in the league this year behind Charlotte for sure, so they would have a higher draft pick than 4th overall. Duh.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

I would rather have chance at Hughes/Kakko... Thank you for that.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

I'd take Tkachuk over Podkolzin/Turcotte/Dach/Byram/Cozens. Basically anyone aside from Kakko or Hughes. Sens dodged a bullet here for sure.

This is not how you should think about this. You need to look at the expectation value of the draft pick, not what the end result was. Expectation value was way better than the 4th pick. That's all what matters in the long run. Their good luck doesn't make it any better. They made terrible trade.

On average Colorado gets second to third pick, which on average is better than the Ottawa 4th pick last season.

 

[Sting]

This is not how you should think about this. You need to look at the expectation value of the draft pick, not what the end result was. Expectation value was way better than the 4th pick. That's all what matters in the long run. Their good luck doesn't make it any better. They made terrible trade.

On average Colorado gets second to third pick, which on average is better than the Ottawa 4th pick last season.

Wasn't the most likely scenario for Colorado 4th overall?

If we're talking expectation value, the expectation from a statistical point of view was that Colorado would most likely not be getting 1st or 2nd overall.

 

[Korpse]

Wasn't the most likely scenario for Colorado 4th overall?

If we're talking expectation value, the expectation from a statistical point of view was that Colorado would most likely not be getting 1st or 2nd overall.

Yeah with those odds the expected pick is 3rd. With 4th being the most likely outcome at 50.6%. This is the second time in three seasons the Avalanche have had a pick drop to 4th. You would think by now they would figure it out.

 

[WHISTLERNATE]

This is not how you should think about this. You need to look at the expectation value of the draft pick, not what the end result was. Expectation value was way better than the 4th pick. That's all what matters in the long run. Their good luck doesn't make it any better. They made terrible trade.

On average Colorado gets second to third pick, which on average is better than the Ottawa 4th pick last season.

Nah, the odds that the pick was 4th were 50%. That was the most likely outcome statistcally. In the end, I feel they Sens made the right call on the picks, but it was still a disaster of a trade. The Avs crushed this deal...Bowers,Girard, Kamenev, Hammond, 2019 1st, 2018 2nd. That is a crazy good haul.

 

[Eltuna]

Wasn't the most likely scenario for Colorado 4th overall?

If we're talking expectation value, the expectation from a statistical point of view was that Colorado would most likely not be getting 1st or 2nd overall.

Basically a 50/50 shot at top 3 or 4th overall. The tricky part is comparing Tkachuk to the 3rd/4th overall of this years draft. If you believe Tkachuk would be the 3rd best player from this draft, then it makes the decision a lot more palatable from Ottawa’s end.

If you believe he’s analogous to this years 4th overall pick, then obviously Ottawa made the “wrong” choice as they gambled on losing Hughes/Kakko. This is using hindsight though as we now know Ottawa was the worst team in the league, which Dorion didn’t know last summer, even if they were the worst team on paper.

Think of it this way, if Colorado could trade this years 4th overall pick for the best odds of the 2020 draft, that’s an easy trade to make. Even if you get unlucky and lose 2020’s lottery, at worst you get the same pick you had the previous year.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I would rather have chance at Hughes/Kakko... Thank you for that.

The lottery is next week, we will find out then.

 

[Korpse]

Basically a 50/50 shot at top 3 or 4th overall. The tricky part is comparing Tkachuk to the 3rd/4th overall of this years draft. If you believe Tkachuk would be the 3rd best player from this draft, then it makes the decision a lot more palatable from Ottawa’s end.

If you believe he’s analogous to this years 4th overall pick, then obviously Ottawa made the “wrong” choice as they gambled on losing Hughes/Kakko. This is using hindsight though as we now know Ottawa was the worst team in the league, which Dorion didn’t know last summer, even if they were the worst team on paper.

Think of it this way, if Colorado could trade this years 4th overall pick for the best odds of the 2020 draft, that’s an easy trade to make. Even if you get unlucky and lose 2020’s lottery, at worst you get the same pick you had the previous year.

I would love to see a team trade the 4th overall for a future first rounder. Just asking for trouble. It’s amazing how the slightest odds of something good happening gloss over reality.