Blues Trade Proposals 2019-20 - Part III

[rumrokh]

Ekblad would not be a good add. Very good defenseman, but the price to acquire him would be very, very high. We do not need to further mortgage our future for one guy given this team's makeup as a quasi-contender rn.

I agree the cost would be high, but the idea of mortgaging the future is weird. He's 24. He'd become the future.

 

[sfvega]

I agree the cost would be high, but the idea of mortgaging the future is weird. He's 24. He'd become the future.

No, because he would likely cost Kyrou or Dunn (possibly both), and a couple 1sts. He's not moving for peanuts. His price tag is not within the realm of what we'd be willing to pay. We already have traded 1st after 1st, the cupboard would be even more bare than it is now. He'd be a great addition to the roster, and a detrimental one to the pipeline.

 

[Celtic Note]

No, because he would likely cost Kyrou or Dunn (possibly both), and a couple 1sts. He's not moving for peanuts. His price tag is not within the realm of what we'd be willing to pay. We already have traded 1st after 1st, the cupboard would be even more bare than it is now. He'd be a great addition to the roster, and a detrimental one to the pipeline.

One of Dunn or Kyrou would have to beat their potential for us to completely lose that deal. If someone asked if I would trade Dunn and Kyrou for Ekblad, would I do it! Absolutely.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Our defense is more of less set. We have to ride the course and wait and see if Faulk improves with an actually defined role and comfortable spot in a pairing. If he bounces back to Carolina days, the defense will be good enough IMO.

 

[rumrokh]

One of Dunn or Kyrou would have to beat their potential for us to completely lose that deal. If someone asked if I would trade Dunn and Kyrou for Ekblad, would I do it! Absolutely.

Agreed. No hesitation. C'mon.

 

[sfvega]

One of Dunn or Kyrou would have to beat their potential for us to completely lose that deal. If someone asked if I would trade Dunn and Kyrou for Ekblad, would I do it! Absolutely.

So do we just not need 1st round picks in this scenario?

The bottom line is Eblad would make us a much better team now. But I'm not sure it makes us a contender. But the cost to acquire him would absolutely hurt us 3-4 years from now.

People seem to still be operating like we're in this championship window, which is debatable with this squad.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

So do we just not need 1st round picks in this scenario?

The bottom line is Eblad would make us a much better team now. But I'm not sure it makes us a contender. But the cost to acquire him would absolutely hurt us 3-4 years from now.

People seem to still be operating like we're in this championship window, which is debatable with this squad.

Normally this is true because the team needs young cost controlled assets. Except right now, there are players that can be signed for short term low salary contracts who are being squeezed by the pandemic. You might be able to fill out your roster with more veteran players at a similar price point.

Eventually, the lack of quality prospects will catch up with you. But if you are trying to stay in a Cup window maybe it’s worth it.

 

[rumrokh]

So do we just not need 1st round picks in this scenario?

The bottom line is Eblad would make us a much better team now. But I'm not sure it makes us a contender. But the cost to acquire him would absolutely hurt us 3-4 years from now.

People seem to still be operating like we're in this championship window, which is debatable with this squad.

Ekblad is 24 and under contract for five more seasons. It's entirely possible the cost would be prohibitive, but he will still be in his prime 3-4 years from now. Acquiring him would be far more than a win-now thing. Most late first rounders don't have that quick of an impact. They become impact players closer to the 23-24 year old range. Three years (four drafts) ago was Thomas's draft. Four years ago was Kyrou's. We're hoping/projecting them to be top-6 guys, but they haven't gotten there, yet. And Thomas unarguably has had a quicker impact than most players chosen in his range. Look at the other guys in those drafts in those pick ranges. They're largely not players you'd miss five years from the draft, let alone 3-4.

 

[sfvega]

Normally this is true because the team needs young cost controlled assets. Except right now, there are players that can be signed for short term low salary contracts who are being squeezed by the pandemic. You might be able to fill out your roster with more veteran players at a similar price point.

Eventually, the lack of quality prospects will catch up with you. But if you are trying to stay in a Cup window maybe it’s worth it.

Yeah, but we're pretty cap squeezed in the time frame when you could take advantage of the flat cap with Parayko, Thomas, Binnington, and Schwartz to extend. And even if we do end up passing on Schwartz, we still have to pay someone to take that spot. And then Ekblad's contract. It seems more viable if we had the cap flexibility to reload. But we really don't IMHO. The Krug and Faulk contracts really ate up some of our wiggle room that we expected to have with Allen and Bozak and Steen coming off the books.

 

[sfvega]

Ekblad is 24 and under contract for five more seasons. It's entirely possible the cost would be prohibitive, but he will still be in his prime 3-4 years from now. Acquiring him would be far more than a win-now thing. Most late first rounders don't have that quick of an impact. They become impact players closer to the 23-24 year old range. Three years (four drafts) ago was Thomas's draft. Four years ago was Kyrou's. We're hoping/projecting them to be top-6 guys, but they haven't gotten there, yet. And Thomas unarguably has had a quicker impact than most players chosen in his range. Look at the other guys in those drafts in those pick ranges. They're largely not players you'd miss five years from the draft, let alone 3-4.

We're talking different points. I'm not saying that Ekblad isn't in his prime, in any way shape or form. What I'm saying is that robbing your own farm system over and over and over again definitely catches up with you. And 3-4 years from now, guys like ROR, Krug, Faulk, and Schenn start to leave their prime, we're going to look to the cupboard and find a bunch of IOU's.

 

[Blueston]

Yeah, but we're pretty cap squeezed in the time frame when you could take advantage of the flat cap with Parayko, Thomas, Binnington, and Schwartz to extend. And even if we do end up passing on Schwartz, we still have to pay someone to take that spot. And then Ekblad's contract. It seems more viable if we had the cap flexibility to reload. But we really don't IMHO. The Krug and Faulk contracts really ate up some of our wiggle room that we expected to have with Allen and Bozak and Steen coming off the books.

I don't think Ekblad is viable option for us unless Faulk was shipped out, but dealing for him certainly wouldn't be just a short term move.

 

[rumrokh]

We're talking different points. I'm not saying that Ekblad isn't in his prime, in any way shape or form. What I'm saying is that robbing your own farm system over and over and over again definitely catches up with you. And 3-4 years from now, guys like ROR, Krug, Faulk, and Schenn start to leave their prime, we're going to look to the cupboard and find a bunch of IOU's.

We're already seeing that, honestly. It's going to be a problem over the next few years more so than dealing youngsters for Ekblad would create at any point.

 

[sfvega]

I don't think Ekblad is viable option for us unless Faulk was shipped out, but dealing for him certainly wouldn't be just a short term move.

Again, I understand that Ekblad is hardly a grizzled veteran. But I'm uncomfortable with two things:

1. Betting heavily on the Cup window still being open. Not saying it's closed, but we all need to be honest with what this team looks like rn.

2. Continually mortgaging the pipeline for the roster. It has worked out fine until now, with a great team. But it will catch up to us at some point.

 

[Blueston]

Again, I understand that Ekblad is hardly a grizzled veteran. But I'm uncomfortable with two things:

1. Betting heavily on the Cup window still being open. Not saying it's closed, but we all need to be honest with what this team looks like rn.

2. Continually mortgaging the pipeline for the roster. It has worked out fine until now, with a great team. But it will catch up to us at some point.

1. We are absolutely still in Cup window. Need some things to break our way, but unless we have more bad luck with injuries we are one of top 3-4 teams in West for sure.
2. Trading a winger who isn't good enough to play top 6 but not suited to play bottom 6, a 3rd pairing defenseman, and 2 late 1sts for 24-year-old top pair defenseman isn't mortgaging future. It's improving it.

 

[sfvega]

We're already seeing that, honestly. It's going to be a problem over the next few years more so than dealing youngsters for Ekblad would create at any point.

But it extends a problem that we already have. We already lack depth in our prospects about as much as any team out there. So to spend more quantity for quality just creates a bigger hole in the system. Ekblad shores up RD and becomes a core piece, great. No arguing that. But when we start to need impact forwards again, what do we do? As guys age and cracks on the roster start to show, what do we do?

Committing to contracts like Schenn, Krug, and Faulk while throwing away most of the valuable assets for your farm system means that a storm is brewing.

 

[rumrokh]

But it extends a problem that we already have. We already lack depth in our prospects about as much as any team out there. So to spend more quantity for quality just creates a bigger hole in the system. Ekblad shores up RD and becomes a core piece, great. No arguing that. But when we start to need impact forwards again, what do we do? As guys age and cracks on the roster start to show, what do we do?

Committing to contracts like Schenn, Krug, and Faulk while throwing away most of the valuable assets for your farm system means that a storm is brewing.

Like I said, the storm is already here. The Blues have too many fingers crossed in the hopes that Thomas, Kyrou, Kostin, Dunn, and Perunovich produce a couple of serious offensive contributors among them. Because the next wave...doesn't exist. They could all top out as middling and we'll all wish they'd moved them for verified talent while they still had value. Trading for a 24 year old under contract for a long time wouldn't be a contributor to the storm unless the payment was absolutely absurd. And, I mean, this is all way over in fantasy zone, so don't misunderstand. I'm not trying to advocate some serious Ekblad or Bust train. I was just attempting to clarify the nature of the player and a deal like that.

 

[simon IC]

1. We are absolutely still in Cup window. Need some things to break our way, but unless we have more bad luck with injuries we are one of top 3-4 teams in West for sure.
2. Trading a winger who isn't good enough to play top 6 but not suited to play bottom 6, a 3rd pairing defenseman, and 2 late 1sts for 24-year-old top pair defenseman isn't mortgaging future. It's improving it.

Strongly agree with #2, but Florida never does that. Strongly disagree with #1. I would argue that with our defense the way it currently is constructed, we are no way near the top 4 in the West. Our GA are going to increase, and our PK will really suffer. With the increasingly important role of special teams in today's NHL, we are reduced to gambling that our PP will be improved enough to overcome these deficiencies. I don't like our chances. With the improvements to most of the teams in the Conference, and especially in the Central, I honestly think we will be fighting for a wild card spot.

 

[sfvega]

Like I said, the storm is already here. The Blues have too many fingers crossed in the hopes that Thomas, Kyrou, Kostin, Dunn, and Perunovich produce a couple of serious offensive contributors among them. Because the next wave...doesn't exist. They could all top out as middling and we'll all wish they'd moved them for verified talent while they still had value. Trading for a 24 year old under contract for a long time wouldn't be a contributor to the storm unless the payment was absolutely absurd. And, I mean, this is all way over in fantasy zone, so don't misunderstand. I'm not trying to advocate some serious Ekblad or Bust train. I was just attempting to clarify the nature of the player and a deal like that.

It is a contributor to the storm when it extends us reload the top end of the farm system for one player. I share a similarly gloomy outlook on our current crop of prospects. We just probably overdrafted a forward in the first. We just traded a 2nd for Scandella. We don't have a 2nd next year. To deal another 2 firsts and our most dynamic young forward for one player, it would gut our future in a way that I'm not sure people understand.

I get that it is easy to look at the pool we have in the minors and the pretty good team we have on the ice and think it's ok to push all our chips in. But if it fails, we're the Ducks for 5 years. An aging squad that used to be good, with about 3-4 real good pieces in their prime, and a mined out farm system.

 

[Celtic Note]

So do we just not need 1st round picks in this scenario?

The bottom line is Eblad would make us a much better team now. But I'm not sure it makes us a contender. But the cost to acquire him would absolutely hurt us 3-4 years from now.

People seem to still be operating like we're in this championship window, which is debatable with this squad.

I don’t disagree about blowing first round picks for years on end. But, in this instance we are trading two 2nd round picks for a #1 overall pick. So, we actually gain a 1st round pick.

The other consideration is the matter of whether this is a short term move or a long terms one. Well based on Ekblad’s age, it’s actually both.

 

[sfvega]

I don’t disagree about blowing first round picks for years on end. But, in this instance we are trading two 2nd round picks for a #1 overall pick. So, we actually gain a 1st round pick.

The other consideration is the matter of whether this is a short term move or a long terms one. Well based on Ekblad’s age, it’s actually both.

I'm not sure what the disconnect is. I'm not painting it as Ekblad only being a short-term add. He's signed for years, he's 24.

But. The benefit of adding him at that cost is more short-term than long-term. We would be adding him to try and capitalize on a Cup window that, as I've said before, I'm not so certain is still there.

Secondly, him taking away from our farm system is not a statement on him or what he adds. But it's about what he takes away. That when we need forwards when Schwartz leaves or gets injured, when Schenn declines, when Perron falls off or just plum leaves again. Or a LD when Scandella leaves or his play dips or if Perunovich fails to live up to billing. What do we have in the system to plug these holes? Not much.

What is Ekblad NOW? He's a very good defenseman on a bad team. What am I afraid of him being here in a few years? A very good defenseman on a bad team. Same as Anaheim. They ignored their farm system for a while and now they have a couple good defensemen wasted on a team that plays horrible team defense and probably won't be good for another 3 years.

I understand that people want to bet on the better picture of now instead of considering what is ahead, but it is kinda like a doctor telling a smoker to stop smoking and them just thinking "I'll enjoy now and worry about tomorrow later." As if tomorrow will never come.

 

[Celtic Note]

I'm not sure what the disconnect is. I'm not painting it as Ekblad only being a short-term add. He's signed for years, he's 24.

But. The benefit of adding him at that cost is more short-term than long-term. We would be adding him to try and capitalize on a Cup window that, as I've said before, I'm not so certain is still there.

Secondly, him taking away from our farm system is not a statement on him or what he adds. But it's about what he takes away. That when we need forwards when Schwartz leaves or gets injured, when Schenn declines, when Perron falls off or just plum leaves again. Or a LD when Scandella leaves or his play dips or if Perunovich fails to live up to billing. What do we have in the system to plug these holes? Not much.

What is Ekblad NOW? He's a very good defenseman on a bad team. What am I afraid of him being here in a few years? A very good defenseman on a bad team. Same as Anaheim. They ignored their farm system for a while and now they have a couple good defensemen wasted on a team that plays horrible team defense and probably won't be good for another 3 years.

I understand that people want to bet on the better picture of now instead of considering what is ahead, but it is kinda like a doctor telling a smoker to stop smoking and them just thinking "I'll enjoy now and worry about tomorrow later." As if tomorrow will never come.

If you were talking about the Faulk trade or a comparable, where the Blues sent out a prospect or high pick for a player on the downside of his peak, we would be having an entirely different conversation. A trade for a guy like Ekblad who is 24 isn’t the same.

It is much harder to hit on a player of his caliber with 20th-ish picks. You are basically trading lesser young guys for a better young guy and one that is significantly better than either player.

You also have to consider that not all first rounders pan out, especially if they are taken later in the round.

Now I am onboard with building up our farm again. The stable is bare. But if feel like using Ekblad as an example to make the case for restocking it is one of the few examples that doesn’t work.

 

[Xanadude]

If we could somehow turn Dunn + into Ekblad, that's a no-brainer. hell yeah. But I doubt Florida moves him for any less than Dunn + Kyrou + a first or two, and even after doing that we'd have ungodly amounts of $ locked up in the defense. In a perfect world we find a way to turn Faulk into Ekblad and we're set, but...yeah. Doubt it.

I think a Dunn + trade for Buchnevich or DeBrusk makes a bit more sense, especially DeBrusk. Either would be a great add to our middle six, are young enough to fit as side peices to our window and both the Rangers and Boston could use a left-handed PMD with cost control. And again, if Steen is LTIRetired, we wouldn't even need to move cap to get either.

 

[sfvega]

If you were talking about the Faulk trade or a comparable, where the Blues sent out a prospect or high pick for a player on the downside of his peak, we would be having an entirely different conversation. A trade for a guy like Ekblad who is 24 isn’t the same.

It is much harder to hit on a player of his caliber with 20th-ish picks. You are basically trading lesser young guys for a better young guy and one that is significantly better than either player.

You also have to consider that not all first rounders pan out, especially if they are taken later in the round.

Now I am onboard with building up our farm again. The stable is bare. But if feel like using Ekblad as an example to make the case for restocking it is one of the few examples that doesn’t work.

It has nothing to do with him being 24. It has everything to do with this team facing a myriad of issues going forward that one fantastic TWENTY FOUR YEAR OLD (he's 24 guys. Just to be clear, 24 years old. Completely acknowledged for the 30th time) defenseman does not address. Ekblad is one giant cork to put on a boat with a lot of holes. He doesn't address the cap issues. He doesn't address Tarasenko. He doesn't address our possible goalies issues if Binner doesn't rebound. Now, Kyrou, Dunn, and 2 firsts don't fix all those issues either. But this isn't the team that we were 2 or 3 years ago when we were making those deals for Schenn or ROR. We're not looking for that one piece to put us over the top, because we're further away than that IMO.

I think this team is closer to not making the playoffs than they are to winning the Cup. I don't think we're picking in the late 20s the next 2 years. I think we have one quasi-decent year next year and from there should pivot toward rebuilding. Which means acquiring MORE premium picks, not giving them up. Ekblad would be a great piece going forward, but we have many issues and very little depth. And I don't want to see us turn into a bad, aging, top-heavy team with little on the horizon.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Any players we can pluck from Vegas in a trade since they are going to desperate to get under the cap?

 

[Zizzle]

I wonder what it would take to get Debrusk? Dunn and Kyro? Dunn and a 1st? Dunn? He would be a great addition.