Blues Trade Proposals 2019-20 - Part III

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simon IC

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I've been very dismissive of the idea that somehow we would move Steen this offseason as part of a cap clearing project to re-sign Petro, but I may have stumbled across a way to get it done that is a win for everyone involved. I still see no way that Steen doesn't finish his career here (and I expect that next season may be his last) but maybe this will work.

Trade Steen and our 2021 1st to Ottawa for the SJS or CBJ 2021 2nd round pick that they hold. Ottawa buys Steen out, as that is the only condition (in this scenario) under which he agrees to waive his NTC. Blues then sign Steen as a UFA for a little more than the actual salary he lost to the buyout. What is the impact?

Draft wise, we're probably giving up 20-30 slots in the draft, which seems a small price to pay to retain Petro.

Cap wise, we save roughly $4.25M based on his current $5.75M cap hit, assuming that he is re-signed for roughly $1.5M after the buyout, and since it is an over-35 contract they can even include some incentives. Steen pockets $2,333,333 from Ottawa, which means that he makes $3,833,333 in actual guaranteed salary next season or $333,333 more than he would have had he played out his contract. Ottawa picks up $3,416,667 towards the cap floor for next season and $1,166,667 the following season despite only paying out $2,333,333 in total. They also move up 20-30 slots in the draft. It makes great sense for both teams in my view, I just don't know if the trade/buyout/re-sign element of the deal passes muster with the changes they just made to the CBA. Combine this with a trade of Allen where we retain $1M or less and you've freed up $6.85M-$7.85M in cap space for next season, assuming you replace Allen with Husso.

This path would also work using the Bozak contract, but Ottawa spends $500K more in that version and gets $1M less in cap hits over the next two years, and the Blues probably have to spend as much ($1.5M) or more on his new contract to get him to agree to the deal, meaning the cap savings is probably only $3.5M or less. This version, on this basis, is much less financially efficient for both teams.

The "long-ball" play here is to make the trade/buyout/re-sign deal with Steen and trade both Allen and Bozak, replacing Bozak on the roster with Kyrou, freeing up around $10M-$12M for maximum flexibility. Once you have Petro and Dunn locked up, you might have enough money left to go out and get someone like Haula or Soderberg to fill the Bozak slot for far less than his $5M.
This actually might work! A very well thought out proposal. Once again, I have to state that I HATE the idea of not drafting until the 3rd round in this years draft, but it might be unavoidable.
 

BlueOil

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I've been very dismissive of the idea that somehow we would move Steen this offseason as part of a cap clearing project to re-sign Petro, but I may have stumbled across a way to get it done that is a win for everyone involved. I still see no way that Steen doesn't finish his career here (and I expect that next season may be his last) but maybe this will work.

Trade Steen and our 2021 1st to Ottawa for the SJS or CBJ 2021 2nd round pick that they hold. Ottawa buys Steen out, as that is the only condition (in this scenario) under which he agrees to waive his NTC. Blues then sign Steen as a UFA for a little more than the actual salary he lost to the buyout. What is the impact?

Draft wise, we're probably giving up 20-30 slots in the draft, which seems a small price to pay to retain Petro.

Cap wise, we save roughly $4.25M based on his current $5.75M cap hit, assuming that he is re-signed for roughly $1.5M after the buyout, and since it is an over-35 contract they can even include some incentives. Steen pockets $2,333,333 from Ottawa, which means that he makes $3,833,333 in actual guaranteed salary next season or $333,333 more than he would have had he played out his contract. Ottawa picks up $3,416,667 towards the cap floor for next season and $1,166,667 the following season despite only paying out $2,333,333 in total. They also move up 20-30 slots in the draft. It makes great sense for both teams in my view, I just don't know if the trade/buyout/re-sign element of the deal passes muster with the changes they just made to the CBA. Combine this with a trade of Allen where we retain $1M or less and you've freed up $6.85M-$7.85M in cap space for next season, assuming you replace Allen with Husso.

This path would also work using the Bozak contract, but Ottawa spends $500K more in that version and gets $1M less in cap hits over the next two years, and the Blues probably have to spend as much ($1.5M) or more on his new contract to get him to agree to the deal, meaning the cap savings is probably only $3.5M or less. This version, on this basis, is much less financially efficient for both teams.

The "long-ball" play here is to make the trade/buyout/re-sign deal with Steen and trade both Allen and Bozak, replacing Bozak on the roster with Kyrou, freeing up around $10M-$12M for maximum flexibility. Once you have Petro and Dunn locked up, you might have enough money left to go out and get someone like Haula or Soderberg to fill the Bozak slot for far less than his $5M.
despite the elegance here, i think melnyk's cheapness interferes. my gut just says melnyk won't let dorion trade for a player that needs to be bought out. maybe with a team other than ottawa this could work.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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despite the elegance here, i think melnyk's cheapness interferes. my gut just says melnyk won't let dorion trade for a player that needs to be bought out. maybe with a team other than ottawa this could work.
The draft pick has financial benefit for him, getting a player who is under team control for several years. Even as a purely financial decision he could probably justify it. Although at the immediate time, teams may be even tighter for a while.

This scheme is cap circumvention though. I’m not sure if it’s against the rules, but it should be. It most definitely isn’t Armstrong’s style.
 

BlueOil

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The draft pick has financial benefit for him, getting a player who is under team control for several years. Even as a purely financial decision he could probably justify it. Although at the immediate time, teams may be even tighter for a while.
the trade is conditional on steen being bought out. i doubt dorion would be allowed to bring in a player just to be bought out and result in melnyk paying steen $2.3 million to go away. not his style at all and he seems to have his fingers in the pudding.

the draft pick improvement and the cap hit should be tempting for them, i agree
 

Brockon

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the trade is conditional on steen being bought out. i doubt dorion would be allowed to bring in a player just to be bought out and result in melnyk paying steen $2.3 million to go away. not his style at all and he seems to have his fingers in the pudding.

the draft pick improvement and the cap hit should be tempting for them, i agree

So approach the NJD with the same offer regarding the NYI 2021 2nd. New Jersey would have 5 1st round picks in 2020/2021, not picking in the 2021 2nd round wouldn't be a huge loss for them and they have ample cap space.
 
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AjaxManifesto

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Well, it should be interesting to see the trades that are made once bubble hockey is over. I mean this league wide.

I think Petro walks. We stay with Faulk and Scandella. I think we keep everyone else and elevate Mikkola.

Steen plays his last season and we phase in Kyrou and Kostin. Not sure what happens with Bozak.
 

simon IC

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Well, it should be interesting to see the trades that are made once bubble hockey is over. I mean this league wide.

I think Petro walks. We stay with Faulk and Scandella. I think we keep everyone else and elevate Mikkola.

Steen plays his last season and we phase in Kyrou and Kostin. Not sure what happens with Bozak.
That would spell the end of our Cup window.
 

Mike Liut

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Agreed, and he’s been my favorite player since we drafted him.


I’d actually take Schenn and Schwartz over Tarasenko at this point if I had to choose. I want players who work their asses off. It’s so vital in the playoffs.
 

sfvega

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It would be weird to lose Tank and Petro in the same off-season. But yeah, I definitely want to get rid of him before all those injuries take its toll on him. His play can be explained by the break, nobody is playing well here. Get some value while you still can.
 

SwivelSchwartz

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Tarasenko is definitely going to bounce back and score thirty goals again in his career, but he’s not the ovechkin lite he once was that could hit 50. We shown we can be just fine without him. Petro not so much.
Do whatever it takes for Seattle to take faulk.
 

Bluesnatic27

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It would be weird to lose Tank and Petro in the same off-season. But yeah, I definitely want to get rid of him before all those injuries take its toll on him. His play can be explained by the break, nobody is playing well here. Get some value while you still can.

I'd think losing both a 70 point winger and a top-10 defenseman in the same offseason is a bit more substantial than "weird".

I think a more accurate description is "catastrophic".
 

Mike Liut

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I’d move Tarasenko for a Schenn type of player. 25g hard nosed type of player > Tarasenko
 

MissouriMook

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I'd think losing both a 70 point winger and a top-10 defenseman in the same offseason is a bit more substantial than "weird".

I think a more accurate description is "catastrophic".
Well if you ignore who came back in trade or who we signed as a FA. I imagine if we trade Tarasenko it’s for someone to replace 80%-90% of what Pietrangelo brings. Depending on the cap shift, we might be able to move the same players we would have to sign Pietrangelo to bring in a young scorer.

It’s all about the net change, and whether you are shifting personnel to fit the way you want to play.
 

BlueDream

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I wouldn’t make any drastic moves. We have 2 options:

A. Let Petro walk and keep the rest of the team intact

B. Re-sign him and move out other players to make room (Bozak? Allen? Steen? Gunnarsson? Dunn?)

It’s up to management to decide which route they want to go. Other than that, I don’t see any other big moves being necessary. We don’t need to overreact about Tarasenko, Binnington or anyone else. The struggles can be explained by not playing competitive hockey for 5 months, being in a bubble and jumping right into playoffs. It’s just weird circumstances. Even if we get swept, oh well. We have a good team that doesn’t need a lot of changes.
 

Fez Whatley

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I think letting petro walk is OK. ANZ depending on how the team plays next year, trading tarasenko or another winger for defense and a pick. This could be a way to re-retool and keep most of the team together. Maybe miss one playoff but then get right back in it depending on draft picks and player development.
 
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