Blues Trade Proposals 2018-2019 - Part II

[Novacain]

Panarin's agent is saying that he wants to negotiate a long-term deal with a club where he can anchor down and raise a family, which is exactly the one appeal that St. Louis seemingly has to professional athletes. How unrealistic is it to think that his friend Vladimir Tarasenko, who just had a child (and has a step child), wouldn't be some type of persuasian?

I would think the price without extension would be tolerable enough if we think we can re-sign him. For a signed Panarin at 8/$9.5, a larger deal would obviously have to be made (probably Parayko/Petro/Schwartz as main piece going the other way), but again we're talking about a top-10 offensive talent.

If the deal was Schwartz+ for Panarin locked up, I'd be happy.

So your solution to our teams issues is trading our top line LW who was just about at a PPG (And who was, if we are being real, the best player on our roster last year) on a great contract for a LW who is a bit better (though last year not by much, but will most likely be making at least 3 million more per year when re-signed, assuming he does, and adding extra assets to do it?

Yeah, hard pass.

 

[Xerloris]

I guess that depends on one's perspective. I have been watching hockey for four decades now, and I have seen some very, very exciting 2-1, 1-0 and even 0-0 hockey games. Unfortunately, defense has become synonymous with "boring" in the minds of some modern fans. I will concede, however, that the NHL seems to be deliberately cultivating a fast tempo, higher scoring game. It makes sense, as it caters to the short attention span and the need for instant gratification of the social media generation. I can't help but feel a sense of loss, but ... I guess I'm just getting old.

1-0 or 2-1 games can be very exciting. The problem starts when your team can only score 1 or 2 goals a game. Our 2nd half last year was terrible.

 

[Zamadoo]

So your solution to our teams issues is trading our top line LW who was just about at a PPG (And who was, if we are being real, the best player on our roster last year) on a great contract for a LW who is a bit better (though last year not by much, but will most likely be making at least 3 million more per year when re-signed, assuming he does, and adding extra assets to do it?

Yeah, hard pass.

Yes, because I think he is more than a 'bit better'. When was the last time Schwartz played 82 games or scored 70+ points? Never. Schwartz relies on his extreme work effort and tenacity for productivity, whereas Panarin actually possesses extreme skill (which we have not had on this team since...?). I admit that when Schwartz is healthy he is our best forward, but we would be upgrading our best player.

Obviously I would rather trade Steen, Fabbri, Jaskin, Jaybo, Gunnar, or Allen than Schwartz, but I'm trying to be realistic. Any extra assets on top of Schwartz would be minimal, such as Schmaltz and cap dump. If you want to keep Schwartz, that's when Petro or Parayko become the piece. I would prefer to upgrade our forward group and keep our D in tact.

The other part that I haven't mentioned yet is that Schwartz is signed for only 2 seasons after 18-19. I'd rather have Panarin for 8 seasons after 18-19 than Schwartz for 2.

 

[Stealth JD]

DA has already made it crystal clear that we're riding out Allens contract so stop with the "fix the goaltending" stuff. It's not going to happen bar some epic failure even worse than we've already seen. Coaching also has nothing to do with acquiring talent. If you were able to add Patches or Panarin to our current line up I would have to say without a doubt we'd be one of the scariest teams in the league and at the very very least extremely fun to watch. How many of those games did you enjoy last year with our team only scoring 1 or 2 goals?

What else is DA going to say about Allen though? Seriously?

As for Panarin, if he comes with an extension you HAVE TO inquire as to his willingness to come to STL. He'd be the best forward on this team, and make the top-9 probably the best in the league depending on what you have to send back the other way.

CBJ wants centers. Army could always send them ROR. lol

Panarin-Bozak-Tarasenko (just win the faceoff, Bo)
Schwartz-Schenn-Maroon
Perron-Thomas-Fabbri/Steen
4th line

 

[Novacain]

Yes, because I think he is more than a 'bit better'. When was the last time Schwartz played 82 games or scored 70+ points? Never. Schwartz relies on his extreme work effort and tenacity for productivity, whereas Panarin actually possesses extreme skill (which we have not had on this team since...?). I admit that when Schwartz is healthy he is our best forward, but we would be upgrading our best player.

Orrrr, we can instead try upgrading a position of need.

Obviously I would rather trade Steen, Fabbri, Jaskin, Jaybo, Gunnar, or Allen than Schwartz, but I'm trying to be realistic. Any extra assets on top of Schwartz would be minimal, such as Schmaltz and cap dump.

For a Panarin that has no intention of re-signing, maybe. For a Panarin that plans to re-sign? No, it would requirr a lot more then just "Schmaltz and a cap dump". We'd be looking at one of our big prospects.

If you want to keep Schwartz, that's when Petro or Parayko become the piece. I would prefer to upgrade our forward group and keep our D in tact.

Going past the complete non need to upgrade one of the 15 best LW's in the game, why would we even look at Colt or Petro for a LW? We would be creating a massive hole without actually, you know, filling any need what so ever.

The other part that I haven't mentioned yet is that Schwartz is signed for only 2 seasons after 18-19. I'd rather have Panarin for 8 seasons after 18-19 than Schwartz for 2.

Sadly we have no way of knowing if it would be 8 years of Panarin or one. And, also, why can't we just re-sign Schwartz in 2 years if he is still playing like a top line player?

Why are we trying to fix what isn't broken?

 

[Evocable Manager]

I know everyone wants to dismiss JRs articles, but DA did inquire about Panarin and its been silence ever sense

I don't have an athletic subscription and don't read anything written by JR as a result. So I can't dismiss something I've never read...

So after improving our offense, the way to "win now" is to add even more offense? Perhaps we should focus instead on improving our goaltending, and improving (by way of coaching!) our special teams? No amount of added offense is going to help us if, (or rather when), Allen has one of his extended funks. Are our new forwards going to coach themselves into a cohesive PP? Our PK, and overall team defense is also going to take a hit as a result of our roster moves. (Although nobody else seems to be concerned about this). I think these issues need to be addressed before we spend more assets on Panarin or Pacioretty.

How is our team defense going to take a hit??
Our defensive core is exactly the same and it was a strong point of our team last year.
Upfront we lost Thompson, Upshall, Brodziak, Berglund and Sobotka. Brodziak and Berglund are the only standout defensive players.
We added O'Reilly, Perron, Bozak, Maroon and will see Thomas on the team.
One of them is a selke caliber player and while ones never been in the NHL, I can't help but notice how he was preached for his two way play (and from the games I saw he was a dominant two way force in the OHL). Perron and Sobotka are rather a wash in terms of defensive capability, so are Maroon and Upshall. The only real weak defensive player we added is Bozak but at the very least he's strong on face offs which can help mitigate some of his shortcomings.

For our PK, we have all of Schwartz, Schenn, O'Reilly, Perron, Steen, Jaskin, Barbashev, Bozak (he did kill penalties for much of his TO tenure), Thomas who will probably be regulars and can play on the PK.

The only way our defense becomes an issue is if Allen shits the bed and I'd say we need to address the goaltending but Armstrong has made it clear he's running with Allen until the end so why even bother?

We've brought in new assistant coaches so we'll see how they affect special teams? Yeo won't be fired unless the team is underperforming...

 

[Zamadoo]

Novacain, I'm not sure what format caused your reply to look like that, but I'll refrain from clicking 'reply' so that it doesnt' become replicated.

Our position of need has continuously been truly elite players, and I consider Panarin one of those above Schwartz. The entire concept of the trade is that A. We are trading for a rental Panarin and hoping to woo him based on him wanting to sign a long term deal in a city where he can raise a family, or B. We are making a sign-and-trade to bring in an already signed long-term Panarin. Based on these scenarios, we would know if it was 8 years or not.

For A: '20 1st, Fabbri/Steen
For B: Schwartz/Parayko/Petro plus other pieces going each way to even things out and fill any holes.

I'll re-iterate that a need we have is a top echelon scoring forward. ROR is a decent #1 two-way C, and a good acquisition. Bozak and Perron are decent 2/3 liners, good acquisitions for those roles. The bottom line is that right now our top line is Maroon-ROR-Tank and we're talking about Cup contention.

By the time we can even negotiate with Schwartz on an extension (probably for $9mil+ by that time) we would already have had to re-sign Petro and Schenn, Thomas and Kyrou among others will be past their ELCs.

What we are fixing is lack of elite offensive skill that has plagued the franchise for what seems like eternity.

I don't necessarily want to trade Schwartz, but would for Panarin signed for 8/$9.5mil.

 

[Dbrownss]

I don't have an athletic subscription and don't read anything written by JR as a result. So I can't dismiss something I've never read...

Ok, but its been discussed on this board at length.

I believe there is truth to the story that Panarin wants a big market city and the recent comments from the agent are more damage control then anything. JR did say that Tarasenko and Panarin's friendship isnt enough to sway him to Stl. That is pretty direct to just pull out of thin air.

I just dont see an extention happening with Panarin.

 

[Novacain]

Novacain, I'm not sure what format caused your reply to look like that, but I'll refrain from clicking 'reply' so that it doesnt' become replicated.

Our position of need has continuously been truly elite players, and I consider Panarin one of those above Schwartz. The entire concept of the trade is that A. We are trading for a rental Panarin and hoping to woo him based on him wanting to sign a long term deal in a city where he can raise a family, or B. We are making a sign-and-trade to bring in an already signed long-term Panarin. Based on these scenarios, we would know if it was 8 years or not.

For A: '20 1st, Fabbri/Steen
For B: Schwartz/Parayko/Petro plus other pieces going each way to even things out and fill any holes.

I'll re-iterate that a need we have is a top echelon scoring forward. ROR is a decent #1 two-way C, and a good acquisition. Bozak and Perron are decent 2/3 liners, good acquisitions for those roles. The bottom line is that right now our top line is Maroon-ROR-Tank and we're talking about Cup contention.

By the time we can even negotiate with Schwartz on an extension (probably for $9mil+ by that time) we would already have had to re-sign Petro and Schenn, Thomas and Kyrou among others will be past their ELCs.

What we are fixing is lack of elite offensive skill that has plagued the franchise for what seems like eternity.

I don't necessarily want to trade Schwartz, but would for Panarin signed for 8/$9.5mil.

For starters, I don't think you are going to get an extended Panarin no matter what you do. So I'm ruling that out until proven wrong. If it's the first option, we are gambling our best forward on what feels like a losing bet. I would be pretty stunned if Panarin doesn't hit free agency next year. So my biggest problem is this scenario even starts with an idea I don't thinkn is happening.

And we don't know WHAT our biggest needs are because we haven't even watched this team in this form player. Robert Thomas or Jordan Kyrou could end up that elite player, but if I'm Columbus in this fantasy scenario were Panarin has worked a sign and trade, I'm demanding Schwartz AND Thomas/Kyrou, not Jordan Schmaltz and a cap dup. Because if we wouldn't match that price, I'm pretty darn sure someone else would.

And no, our biggest need isn't elite players, it's a goalie. And after that it's RHD depth, which makes the idea of Colt or Petro being moved for a LW when our LW depth is still pretty great is just off.

 

[Zamadoo]

For starters, I don't think you are going to get an extended Panarin no matter what you do. So I'm ruling that out until proven wrong. If it's the first option, we are gambling our best forward on what feels like a losing bet. I would be pretty stunned if Panarin doesn't hit free agency next year. So my biggest problem is this scenario even starts with an idea I don't thinkn is happening.

And we don't know WHAT our biggest needs are because we haven't even watched this team in this form player. Robert Thomas or Jordan Kyrou could end up that elite player, but if I'm Columbus in this fantasy scenario were Panarin has worked a sign and trade, I'm demanding Schwartz AND Thomas/Kyrou, not Jordan Schmaltz and a cap dup. Because if we wouldn't match that price, I'm pretty darn sure someone else would.

And no, our biggest need isn't elite players, it's a goalie. And after that it's RHD depth, which makes the idea of Colt or Petro being moved for a LW when our LW depth is still pretty great is just off.

I definitely see your angle. No more need for discussion.

How about Steen, Allen, Bo, and picks for Bobrovsky and Panarin unsigned?

 

[Novacain]

I definitely see your angle. No more need for discussion.

How about Steen, Allen, Bo, and picks for Bobrovsky and Panarin unsigned?

I would probably do it, just don't see why Columbus does.

 

[Majorityof1]

I would probably do it, just don't see why Columbus does.

No probably about it from our end, although losing Steen will hurt if we don't re-sign either player. But no way Columbus touches that. If they are trading Bread 'n Bob, they'd want futures coming back more inline with their core of Wennberg, PLD, Jones and Werenski who are all 24 or under.

 

[Dbrownss]

I definitely see your angle. No more need for discussion.

How about Steen, Allen, Bo, and picks for Bobrovsky and Panarin unsigned?

Is this an NHL 18 deal where you do it before you start a season, Even though you cant trade picks? I guess you could just trade the picks once you start the season.

 

[Zamadoo]

Is this an NHL 18 deal where you do it before you start a season, Even though you cant trade picks? I guess you could just trade the picks once you start the season.

No, this is a deal where Novacain stressed the importance of upgrading our goaltending while I was stressing the importance of adding a top echelon forward (Panarin), so I combined the two and threw in the normal junk to get it done.

I bet if you added '20 1st and Kostin they might kick the tires.

 

[BleedBlue14]

I can’t imagine in a far fetched scenario in which we trade for Panarin that Steen along with Kyrou aren’t going back the other way as a base. We’d still need to clear cap somehow, not sure where that would be coming from as Panarin will probably get a similar contract to Kucherov. Maybe those two plus Parayko would work? I don’t know, seems steep all while being far fetched. I’d much rather keep what we have and take a good strong evaluation of our goalie and goalie prospects. Johnson will be Johnson and he’s honestly at this point just there as a place holder, which is completely fine. Fits had a phenomenal year last year and looks pretty promising.

Hopefully Husso is the next great Finn goalie and we are all saved.

 

[Dbrownss]

No, this is a deal where Novacain stressed the importance of upgrading our goaltending while I was stressing the importance of adding a top echelon forward (Panarin), so I combined the two and threw in the normal junk to get it done.

I bet if you added '20 1st and Kostin they might kick the tires.

No they wouldn't

 

[HighNote]

I admit that when Schwartz is healthy he is our best forward, but we would be upgrading our best player.

we are gambling our best forward on what feels like a losing bet.

Did Tarasenko get traded? Don't get me wrong, I'm one of the biggest Schwartz fans out there, but I don't think he's better than Tarasenko. Schwartz had a career year with Schenn while Tarasenko had a down year (and he still put up 33 goals and 66 points). His shooting percentage was down and the powerplay was 30th in the league, which hurts Tarasenko more than it hurts Schwartz. Assuming both players stay healthy this coming year, I take Tarasenko.

 

[Majorityof1]

Did Tarasenko get traded? Don't get me wrong, I'm one of the biggest Schwartz fans out there, but I don't think he's better than Tarasenko. Schwartz had a career year with Schenn while Tarasenko had a down year (and he still put up 33 goals and 66 points). His shooting percentage was down and the powerplay was 30th in the league, which hurts Tarasenko more than it hurts Schwartz. Assuming both players stay healthy this coming year, I take Tarasenko.

Offensively Tarasenko is hands down our best player. But people who say Schwartz is the best forward are factoring in play without the puck, ie defense and puck-battles, where Tarasenko can be a bit less than engaged at times.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

All the news from that last article implies Panarin and Jarmo are looking to trade him before the season starts in order to maximize the return on a sign-and-trade. That’s where the conversation should be.

I would absolutely trade futures for Panarin, and would consider moving Schwartz if it weren’t completely unrealistic for Armstrong to do that - and that goes for O’Reilly, Schenn, Pietrangelo, etc. CBJ doesn’t need defense, and given the desire to S&T him, I don’t think we will see a trade in division, nor a trade that includes roster players instead of futures. We can provide the futures necessary to grab Panarin, have the space next year for his extension, and can make room this offseason to fit his 6M under the cap by moving Gunnarsson in a separate deal, and trading Jaskin. It will be incredibly tight, but we can manage it. I don’t think Steen or anyone else with a NTC is going anywhere (Bouwmeester), but if someone was to move, it would be Bouwmeester - so that’s another possibility, albeit a long shot.

Again, given the need for a S&T, trading him out of division, and CBJ’s need for roster forwards or non-D futures, STL could put forward a very competitive offer given their assets, their cap space next year, and their ability to be one of the few teams where Panarin would have good reason to be likely to agree to a S&T. ROR without needing to trade Thomas or Kyrou, and the thought of trading both Berglund and Sobotka in the same deal for him was pie in the sky not too long ago. I’m not saying we will get Panarin, but the pieces are there to warrant speculation.

Editted for clarity

 

[Zamadoo]

All the news from that last article implies Panarin and Jarmo are looking to trade him before the season starts in order to maximize the return on a sign-and-trade. That’s where the conversation should be.

I would absolutely trade futures for Panarin, and would consider moving Schwartz if it weren’t completely unrealistic for Armstrong to do that - and that goes for O’Reilly, Schenn, Pietrangelo, etc. CBJ doesn’t need defense, and given the desire S&T him, I don’t think we will see a trade in division, nor a trade that includes roster players instead of futures. We can provide the futures necessary to grab Panarin, have the space next year for his extension, and can make room this offseason to fit his 6M under the cap by moving Gunnarsson in a separate deal, and trading Jaskin. It will be incredibly tight, but we can manage it. I don’t think Steen or anyone else with a NTC is goof anywhere (Bouwmeester), but if someone was to move, it would be Bouwmeester - so that’s another possibility, albeit a long shot.

Again, given the need for a S&T, trading him out of division, and CBJ’s need for roster forwards or non-D futures, StL could put forward a very competitive offer given their assets, their cap space next year, and their ability to be one of the few teams where Panarin would have good reason to be likely to agree to a S&T. ROR without needing to trade Thomas or Kyrou, and the thought of trading both Berglund and Sobotka in the same deal for him was pie in the sky not too long ago. I’m not saying we will get Panarin, but the pieces are there to warrant speculation.

I agree completely. Excellent post.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Panarin is this boards new Tavares.... he might need his own thread soon... LoL

 

[EastonBlues22]

I don't think it's going to be as easy to fit in Panarin's contract, either short or long-term, as others seem to believe.

Moving out Gunnarsson, Fabbri, and Jaskin (along with a bunch of futures) isn't enough. Filling in the gaps as cheaply to round out a 23 man roster still leaves the Blues with less than $1.5 million in space to sign Edmundson for this year. Even running with only a 21 man roster only gets the Blues about $2.8 million to work with. Maybe an arbitration award for Edmundson comes in under that. Maybe. You're probably going to have to move someone else as well.

The year after that it's incredibly tight, and that's assuming you get Panarin for "only" $9.0 million and all the pending UFAs re-sign for less than $1.o million (or the Blues replace them with someone who does).

The year after that when Pietrangelo, Schenn, and Dunn are all due for new contracts, you're looking at dumping Bozak and Perron (and replacing them with guys on minimum contracts) just to get you in the neighborhood of accounting for those raises. All the ELCs and bridge deals that expire in there need to be accounted for as well.

Maybe it's theoretically possible, but Armstrong will be walking a very tough financial tightrope, and the team will be very dependent on developing their own talent since they'll have almost no discretionary income to pursue anyone on the FA market. If Husso or someone else in the system doesn't pan out, the Blues are essentially ****ed from a goaltending standpoint because they won't have the cash to invest in bringing anyone else in without sending equal salary back out (and their salaries will be invested so top heavily at that point that we're talking a pretty darn good player).

I don't see Armstrong eagerly backing himself into that sort of corner, and we're already working under the fairly heavy assumptions that we can make Columbus an offer they won't refuse, and Panarin actually wants to re-sign here (I don't see the Blues throwing the needed assets at him Columbus otherwise).

It all just seems like a big fantasy to me. A nice one, but just so far removed from what's likely to happen that it seems surreal even contemplating it.

 

[BleedBlue14]

I’m completely confused as to how we could realistically sign Panarin without moving Parayko and Steen or Parayko and Schwartz. I’m pretty sure that Panarin will expect at least 9/yr after the Kuch deal. I get that next year we could afford him but that means we are losing two of Pietro, Dunn or Schenn.

 

[The Note in MI]

I want Panarin. We won’t get Panarin. Coming from someone who felt we had a great chance at Tavares.

Not gonna use time to discuss this fantasy further.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I don't think it's going to be as easy to fit in Panarin's contract, either short or long-term, as others seem to believe.

Moving out Gunnarsson, Fabbri, and Jaskin (along with a bunch of futures) isn't enough. Filling in the gaps as cheaply to round out a 23 man roster still leaves the Blues with less than $1.5 million in space to sign Edmundson for this year. Even running with only a 21 man roster only gets the Blues about $2.8 million to work with. Maybe an arbitration award for Edmundson comes in under that. Maybe. You're probably going to have to move someone else as well.

The year after that it's incredibly tight, and that's assuming you get Panarin for "only" $9.0 million and all the pending UFAs re-sign for less than $1.o million (or the Blues replace them with someone who does).

The year after that when Pietrangelo, Schenn, and Dunn are all due for new contracts, you're looking at dumping Bozak and Perron (and replacing them with guys on minimum contracts) just to get you in the neighborhood of accounting for those raises. All the ELCs and bridge deals that expire in there need to be accounted for as well.

Maybe it's theoretically possible, but Armstrong will be walking a very tough financial tightrope, and the team will be very dependent on developing their own talent since they'll have almost no discretionary income to pursue anyone on the FA market. If Husso or someone else in the system doesn't pan out, the Blues are essentially ****ed from a goaltending standpoint because they won't have the cash to invest in bringing anyone else in without sending equal salary back out (and their salaries will be invested so top heavily at that point that we're talking a pretty darn good player).

I don't see Armstrong eagerly backing himself into that sort of corner, and we're already working under the fairly heavy assumptions that we can make Columbus an offer they won't refuse, and Panarin actually wants to re-sign here (I don't see the Blues throwing the needed assets at him Columbus otherwise).

It all just seems like a big fantasy to me. A nice one, but just so far removed from what's likely to happen that it seems surreal even contemplating it.

I agree about the cap complications for this year - it will be VERY tough to make it work without Steen, Bouwmeester, or retention.

However, I think when factoring in a modest cap raise over the next two years, dropping Maroon, trading Steen after next year, and other modest moves make this needle worth threading. It has also been stated multiple times by Panarin and his agent that he has no interest in pursuing money, and would be willing to put that aside for a better family and team. I think 8.5M is a possibility.