Blues Trade Proposals 2018-2019 - Part II

[BlueDream]

I don't quite understand the Panarin talk. I would think Armstrong probably has already talked to his agent and has a pretty good idea of whether the player would re-sign here or not.

I thought JR (or someone) already put out a piece that Panarin wasn't interested and that's why we went in a different direction.

After adding 4 new forwards via trade/free agency, not to mention his mentions of Thomas and Kyrou pushing for a roster spot, I'd have to think the chances that Panarin is on the Blues radar right now is probably 0.

At least the Tavares discussion made sense. He was a free agent and we had a huge hole up front. I don't see how this Panarin stuff is anything but a waste of time.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I agree about the cap complications for this year - it will be VERY tough to make it work without Steen, Bouwmeester, or retention.

However, I think when factoring in a modest cap raise over the next two years, dropping Maroon, trading Steen after next year, and other modest moves make this needle worth threading. It has also been stated multiple times by Panarin and his agent that he has no interest in pursuing money, and would be willing to put that aside for a better family and team.

Steen has a full NTC. How are you making that work?

It's nice that Panarin and his agent are saying it's not all about the money. Pretty much everyone says that, but even if it's true in this case, he's still going to get paid a whole heaping ton of it. There will be any number of good teams making him offers, and there's good places to raise a family in almost every big community. Having his pick of both and still commanding a full-market contract due are far from mutually exclusive options.

 

[Stealth JD]

I don't quite understand the Panarin talk. I would think Armstrong probably has already talked to his agent and has a pretty good idea of whether the player would re-sign here or not.

I thought JR (or someone) already put out a piece that Panarin wasn't interested and that's why we went in a different direction.

Panarin's agent indicated that no teams had yet approached Jarmo about contacting Panarin's camp around a contract. Seems unlikely to think that Army would have already reached out and been shot down by anyone other than Jarmo, who at the time probably admittedly didn't want to trade his best player. If the writing is on the wall that Panarin is walking at year-end, I'd fully expect Jarmo to change that stance and let teams begin reaching out to Milstein. The rumor of there being a list of teams where Panarin would consider was shot down a few days after it surfaced, so I wouldn't count the Blues out of anything just yet.

 

[Spektre]

There’s been a couple of articles in the Athletic recently featuring the Panarin situation. His agent said they haven’t submitted any list of teams Panarin would resign with. It was also reported there had been quality trade offers made but the offers were futures only. Obviously those offers had to be for only one known year from Panarin.

The Blues would have to package Steen to Columbus for any realistic chance of having Panarin long term. They would probably hope to lose Perron again in the Seattle draft.

As GM it’s Army’s job to look at every way possible to improve the club. There’s lots of moving pieces to make Panarin a realistic scenario.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Steen has a full NTC. How are you making that work?

It's nice that Panarin and his agent are saying it's not all about the money. Pretty much everyone says that, but even if it's true in this case, he's still going to get paid a whole heaping ton of it. There will be any number of good teams making him offers, and there's good places to raise a family in almost every big community. Having his pick of both and still commanding a full-market contract due are far from mutually exclusive options.

I was under the impression that Steen’s NTC became limited after next year. I’ll look at the cap now and moving forward tomorrow.

As for the money: 8.5M doesn’t seem outrageously low to me regardless of whether he’s agreeing to it as a discount or just at face value.

Edit: I looked at the cap, and we are just $700,000 short if we only move out Jaskin and Gunnarsson and bring Panarin in at a full 6M. 1M of retention would work wonders. Side note: I learned that a buyout of Bouwmeester would mean 1.8M against the cap for only this and next year... As for Steen, his NTC expires at the TDL on the final year of his deal (the year after next).

If we can find a way to fit Panarin under the cap this year, the next two years aren’t so bad once Bouwmeester is gone. If the arbitration for Ed comes back at 2-2.5M and we accept a deal of two years, we are in even better shape (I’m assuming a cap increase of 2M per year). The Pietrangelo and Schenn raises don’t really scare me even if we have Panarin at 9M. There’s plenty of room for Petro at 9M and Schenn at 7.5M even without trading Steen. I’ll do a more formal check and post my maneuvers tomorrow at some point, but it appears that we only have to worry about fitting Panarin this year, and even just 1M of retention would work wonders. If it is unlikely to grab Panarin for this season, if he’s available in UFA next season we have lots of room to make that move.

 

[simon IC]

I am still questioning the Panarin hype. Yes, he is very very good. Yes, he is a better LW than anyone we have at that position right now. (Including Schwartz). However, some of you seem to have him in the McDavid tier. It is not like he carried the Hawks on his back to the Stanley Cup. He hasn't been past the 1st round on Columbus. I did an (admittedly quick) google search for top 10 NHL forwards in 2017-18. His name did not show up. Now before I get jumped on, I admit he is really good. He's an exceptional dangler in particular, which I think is what most people are focusing on. I honestly don't think he is a game changer.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I was under the impression that Steen’s NTC became limited after next year. I’ll look at the cap now and moving forward tomorrow.

As for the money: 8.5M doesn’t seem outrageously low to me regardless of whether he’s agreeing to it as a discount or just at face value.

Edit: I looked at the cap, and we are just $700,000 short if we only move out Jaskin and Gunnarsson and bring Panarin in at a full 6M. 1M of retention would work wonders. Side note: I learned that a buyout of Bouwmeester would mean 1.8M against the cap for only this and next year... As for Steen, his NTC expires at the TDL on the final year of his deal (the year after next).

If we can find a way to fit Panarin under the cap this year, the next two years aren’t so bad once Bouwmeester is gone. If the arbitration for Ed comes back at 2-2.5M and we accept a deal of two years, we are in even better shape (I’m assuming a cap increase of 2M per year). The Pietrangelo and Schenn raises don’t really scare me even if we have Panarin at 9M. There’s plenty of room for Petro at 9M and Schenn at 7.5M even without trading Steen. I’ll do a more formal check and post my maneuvers tomorrow at some point, but it appears that we only have to worry about fitting Panarin this year, and even just 1M of retention would work wonders. If it is unlikely to grab Panarin for this season, if he’s available in UFA next season we have lots of room to make that move.

It seems to me that Steen's NTC expires too late to really be relevant to this decision. The Blues would need to convince him to waive. Maybe they can, but I don't think it's a given.

I'm not sure if you can simply assume the cap will increase $2 million each year. Even if you're comfortable making that assumption, I doubt Armstrong will be. Can you make it work without counting on those increases? Based on what I was spit-balling earlier...maybe, but I don't think it's going to be very comfortable if you do.

Don't forget either the NHL or NHLPA can opt out of the current CBA as early as next year (killing it in 2020). That's another wrinkle that could potentially throw a significant wrench in your cap ceiling projections.

I think the Blues might be financially positioned to take a run at him as a UFA depending on what the cap projections are as this coming season winds down, and whether or not there are any rumblings about one side or the other opting out of the CBA early, but having that conversation in the future is probably a very different one than what we're currently talking about in this thread (trading for him now and then trying to convince him to extend here). You don't need to worry about shoehorning him in this year, you're not talking about trading a bunch of assets for him, you'll know more about the cap projection for next year, and the uncertainty of whether or not he would extend here becomes moot.

 

[Meatball]

tl;dr - Stand pat. If he wants to come here next season, he will. I view him as a luxury at this point. The focus should be inward for the time being.

We've got plenty to work with and plenty of work to do.

 

[Robb_K]

The only trade ideas that should be considered at this point should be trading for an improvement in reliability in goal (e.g. trading off Allen and getting a more reliable goaltender, that is already better than Allen at his best, and also has at least a little upside improvement potential.

 

[Dbrownss]

I am still questioning the Panarin hype. Yes, he is very very good. Yes, he is a better LW than anyone we have at that position right now. (Including Schwartz). However, some of you seem to have him in the McDavid tier. It is not like he carried the Hawks on his back to the Stanley Cup. He hasn't been past the 1st round on Columbus. I did an (admittedly quick) google search for top 10 NHL forwards in 2017-18. His name did not show up. Now before I get jumped on, I admit he is really good. He's an exceptional dangler in particular, which I think is what most people are focusing on. I honestly don't think he is a game changer.

He is a game changer though. He's similar to Tarasenko in that every time he has the puck, there is a high chance it ends up in the net. No one should be putting him with McDavid, no one is in his tier.

I dont think there is a possibility of him being here long term. Regardless of the damage control by his agent, I think DA got the picture and pursued other options.

 

[Zamadoo]

Good point about the CBA. Also, there's another expansion in the same time period. Could Steen be unprotected? Capfriendly only says NTC, no more details. I thought only NMC must be protected, but I could be wrong.

When it comes to Schwartz and Steen, they are both high intensity two-way top 6 forwards. They both play a rough style and earn every point. The argument for Panarin is that he's a different type of player altogether, the type that we don't have other than the potential of Thomas and Kyrou.

To me, it's more about a shift in style of play than who is better than who.

 

[Evocable Manager]

I am still questioning the Panarin hype. Yes, he is very very good. Yes, he is a better LW than anyone we have at that position right now. (Including Schwartz). However, some of you seem to have him in the McDavid tier. It is not like he carried the Hawks on his back to the Stanley Cup. He hasn't been past the 1st round on Columbus. I did an (admittedly quick) google search for top 10 NHL forwards in 2017-18. His name did not show up. Now before I get jumped on, I admit he is really good. He's an exceptional dangler in particular, which I think is what most people are focusing on. I honestly don't think he is a game changer.

If you're expectation for a game changer is a guy who can singlehandedly carry a team to a Cup then there is no such thing as a game changer. This isn't the NBA.

Panarin was imperative to CBJ. He carried their offense all year. The next highest scoring forward was PLD with 48 points. He was the driving force on that team, he absolutely is a game changer.

 

[Dbrownss]

If you're expectation for a game changer is a guy who can singlehandedly carry a team to a Cup then there is no such thing as a game changer. This isn't the NBA.

Panarin was detrimental to CBJ. He carried their offense all year. The next highest scoring forward was PLD with 48 points. He was the driving force on that team, he absolutely is a game changer.

No wonder why they want to trade him

 

[Evocable Manager]

No wonder why they want to trade him

I meant to say imperative and.....I should just not post when I wake up

My point is, Panarin is absolutely a game changer.

 

[Dbrownss]

I meant to say imperative and.....I should just not post when I wake up

My point is, Panarin is absolutely a game changer.

I knew what you were getting at lol.

I do enjoy reading the mental jumping jacks some CBJ fans are doing, some are justifying him leaving via FA. The "experience" of potentially making the playoffs 3 times in a row and MAYBE winning a round will be good for their "youth". They lose Panarin, that experience wont mean much post Panarin

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

It seems to me that Steen's NTC expires too late to really be relevant to this decision. The Blues would need to convince him to waive. Maybe they can, but I don't think it's a given.

I'm not sure if you can simply assume the cap will increase $2 million each year. Even if you're comfortable making that assumption, I doubt Armstrong will be. Can you make it work without counting on those increases? Based on what I was spit-balling earlier...maybe, but I don't think it's going to be very comfortable if you do.

Don't forget either the NHL or NHLPA can opt out of the current CBA as early as next year (killing it in 2020). That's another wrinkle that could potentially throw a significant wrench in your cap ceiling projections.

I think the Blues might be financially positioned to take a run at him as a UFA depending on what the cap projections are as this coming season winds down, and whether or not there are any rumblings about one side or the other opting out of the CBA early, but having that conversation in the future is probably a very different one than what we're currently talking about in this thread (trading for him now and then trying to convince him to extend here). You don't need to worry about shoehorning him in this year, you're not talking about trading a bunch of assets for him, you'll know more about the cap projection for next year, and the uncertainty of whether or not he would extend here becomes moot.

Excellent points about the CBA. Now I’m curious as to what teams would be able to more easily S&T for him, and then what teams from that list would seem to be likely candidates given their competitiveness, etc.

The expansion draft mentioned above is another thing to consider for all teams both as a positive and a negative. I do believe Steen could be exposed.

 

[Robb_K]

Good point about the CBA. Also, there's another expansion in the same time period. Could Steen be unprotected? Capfriendly only says NTC, no more details. I thought only NMC must be protected, but I could be wrong.

When it comes to Schwartz and Steen, they are both high intensity two-way top 6 forwards. They both play a rough style and earn every point. The argument for Panarin is that he's a different type of player altogether, the type that we don't have other than the potential of Thomas and Kyrou.

To me, it's more about a shift in style of play than who is better than who.

No, you are correct. Steen will not be required to be protected.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

If we were to get Panarin at 8.5M, the following year we would have 17M in cap to work with. Fabbri can be re-signed at 5M, and then we have 10M to work with to fill Bortuzzo, Bouwmeester, Johnson, Soshnikov, Sundqvist, and Maroon's shoes - which is plenty, and that's assuming no raise in the cap. The year after that we would have roughly 9M to work with going into the expansion draft. Assuming we protect Pietrangelo, Parayko, Dunn, Tarasenko, Panarin, Schwartz, Schenn, O'Reilly, Fabbri, Steen, and Allen (worst case-scenario cap-wise; Edmundson is UFA after a 2.5Mx2 arbitration and re-signs with us afterward for around4-5M), and assume SEA takes Perron (worst-case cap-wise), we would have around 13M in space to sign Pietrangelo, Schenn, Dunn. If Pietrangelo takes 9M and Schenn takes 7M we would need to trade Bozak or Steen (Bozak has a soon to expire 10-team MNTC and Steen a soon to expire NTC). Assuming we trade the easier to move Bozak, we would have 1M left over to sign Dunn - and that's with no raise in the cap. If we assume even an average of 2M raise in the cap over two seasons (the cap would be at 84M going into 2020), even with losing the least amount of cap to the expansion draft, signing both Edmundson and Fabbri to 5M each, replacing Bortuzzo, Bouwmeester, Johnson, Soshnikov, Sundqvist, and Maroon each with more than 1M in cap (which is a lot more than we should be using for some of those extra skaters), AND assuming we don't do anything with Allen or Steen, we still would have enough to squeeze in a Dunn RFA bridge at 3M while running this 2020-21 lineup:

2020-21

Panarin 8.5M O'Reilly 7.5M Tarasenko 7.5M
Schwartz 5.35M Schenn 7M Fabbri 5M
Steen 5.75M Thomas .894M Kyrou .758M
XXX 1M XXX 1M XXX 1M
XXX 1M XXX 1M

Edmundson 5M Pietrangelo 9M
Dunn 3M Parayko 5.5M
XXX 1M XXX 1M
XXX 1M

Allen 4.35M
Husso 1M

CAP: 84.002M / 84M

Again, this is assuming losing the least amount of cap to the ED, signing both Ed and Fabbri to 10M combined, Schenn to 7M, Pietrangelo to 9M, keeping Allen, and signing our 9 replacement level players to 8M (many of whom we have excellent cheap prospects ready to replace at around .8M each). We still are just $2,000 over the cap when it only rose 4M in 2 years (the average raise over the past 5 years was 2.1 per year starting in 2014-15). Is it tight? Yes, but this is absolutely worst-case scenario unless you consider needing to bring in Bobrovsky in FA to replace Allen as part of that worst-case scenario.

Signing Panarin doesn't hurt our window over the next three years at all, and definitely improves our chances of winning over that time period. In 2021-22 we will need to extend Thomas, Kyrou, and Schwartz (with no more Steen), and the year following we will need to extend Parayko. Following that, Tarasenko and O'Reilly. The next three years are our window whether or not we grab Panarin due to our aging core unless Kyrou, Thomas, Kostin, Bokk, and Husso come up big - and if they do, that's even more reason why we might be forced to ship out Steen, Bozak, Allen, etc. earlier than this timeline.

I'm not trying to make the case that it's likely that we grab Panarin, or even that it's likely that everything works out - but I do believe that it's not as impossible to imagine as some might think. The real issue is fitting Panarin under the cap this season. Here are some solutions, albeit complicated:

Acquire Panarin at 1M or more retained
Buyout Bouwmeester for 1.8M cap hit this and next season
Trade Steen
Trade Bouwmeester
Place Bouwmeester on LTIR to start the season and bank enough cap to squeeze Panarin's 6M
Run a 21 man roster

Again, I'm not saying it's probable or even easy, but there are (slightly complex) ways of making that work, and I think the slight complexity required to acquire Panarin is worth it.

 

[MissouriMook]

First of all, for clarification, we can't buy out Bouwmeester even if we wanted to. The buyout window closed June 30. He was on LTIR to end last season, which means he was ineligible for a buyout. It's not happening, so suggesting that as a solution for anything at this point is no different than saying "Hey, maybe we can just sign Panarin as a free agent right now." NHL Rules and all - exactly 0% chance of that happening.

/rant

Now that I have that off my chest, I feel like there is a very small albeit non-zero chance that we bring Panarin in now or next offseason. If we do explore that, however, I feel like we have to shed Steen's contract. Looking at our cap situation this year and next, as well as the roster construction, I think the only way the Breadman fits is if we've moved on from Steen and his $5.75M cap hit, either in a deal for Panarin or in a separate transaction. The odds of Steen waiving his NTC just makes this slim chance even slimmer.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

First of all, for clarification, we can't buy out Bouwmeester even if we wanted to. The buyout window closed June 30. He was on LTIR to end last season, which means he was ineligible for a buyout. It's not happening, so suggesting that as a solution for anything at this point is no different than saying "Hey, maybe we can just sign Panarin as a free agent right now." NHL Rules and all - exactly 0% chance of that happening.

/rant

Now that I have that off my chest, I feel like there is a very small albeit non-zero chance that we bring Panarin in now or next offseason. If we do explore that, however, I feel like we have to shed Steen's contract. Looking at our cap situation this year and next, as well as the roster construction, I think the only way the Breadman fits is if we've moved on from Steen and his $5.75M cap hit, either in a deal for Panarin or in a separate transaction. The odds of Steen waiving his NTC just makes this slim chance even slimmer.

Waivers

A player can only be bought out after clearing unconditional waivers. A waiver-claim by another team pre-empts the buyout process. If a player has a no-movement clause, the player can reject the option of waivers and proceed to the buyout process.

Buyouts Outside of the Regular Period

Clubs whom have 1 or more arbitration filings may be permitted to perform a buyout outside of the regular window. This gives teams another opportunity to become cap compliant following an arbitration case.

As explained in Section 13(c)ii of the Standard Player Contract (SPC) [Exhibit 1 of the CBA], clubs are permitted to perform a buyout outside the regular period during the 48 hour period beginning on the third day after the final of a) settlement of the Club's final arbitration case. b) receipt of the Club's last arbitration award.

There is an exception to this buyout period (CBA Reference: Section 11.18; 12.3) if the arbitation was Club-elected (as opposed to player-elected) and the player did not receive a qualifying offer. In this case, a minimum of two arbitration cases are necessary to trigger the buy-out period outside the regular window.

The number of arbitration filings required to open the buy-out window outside the regular period are as follows:

Mininum Number of Arbitration Cases Required to Trigger a Buyout Window Outside of the Regular Period
Arbitration Case	Min. Number of Arbitration Cases
Player-Elected	1
Club-Elected [Player received a Qualifying Offer]	1
Club-Elected [Player did not receive a Qualifying Offer]	2

[THEAD] [/THEAD]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Edit: I'm not sure if LTIR from last season still affects this though, and I don't want to be seen as buying out JBo being THE solution, but I believe it's still possible. Oh, and according to CapFriendly, you can buyout a player and have them re-sign with you in the same year - it was only for compliance buyouts in 2013 when that rule was enforced, so we could even re-sign him to a 1-year deal if we're getting really adventurous. Wouldn't it be funny to buy him out at 1.8M, re-sign him to a one-year deal at 2M, and save 2M in cap space this year?

 

[MissouriMook]

Thanks for the reminder, Vincenzo, about the second window. I had forgotten about that.

Still, the language you posted isn't clear on the issue, but I believe this only applies if the arbitration process reaches the stage where the arbitrator rules on the case, a situation that may or may not happen in Edmundson's case. I don't think this second window applies in cases where arbitration is filed but the sides settle prior to the ruling, but what you posted isn't really clear on this one way or the other. I'm pretty confident about needing a ruling to activate the second window, otherwise it would be a circumvention risk with teams and players filing solely to provide the team more roster flexibility after free agency.

And, remember, it doesn't change the fact that Bouwmeester is still on LTIR until the start of the season and is, therefore, ineligible for a buyout. My understanding is that a player that ends the previous season on LTIR can't be activated until the start of the following season.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Thanks for the reminder, Vincenzo, about the second window. I had forgotten about that.

Still, the language you posted isn't clear on the issue, but I believe this only applies if the arbitration process reaches the stage where the arbitrator rules on the case, a situation that may or may not happen in Edmundson's case. I don't think this second window applies in cases where arbitration is filed but the sides settle prior to the ruling, but what you posted isn't really clear on this one way or the other. I'm pretty confident about needing a ruling to activate the second window, otherwise it would be a circumvention risk with teams and players filing solely to provide the team more roster flexibility after free agency.

And, remember, it doesn't change the fact that Bouwmeester is still on LTIR until the start of the season and is, therefore, ineligible for a buyout. My understanding is that a player that ends the previous season on LTIR can't be activated until the start of the following season.

All true, however, the cap circumvention of it is mitigated by requiring unconditional waivers - if EDM were to do this with McDavid on the final year of his contract in order to bring in some more help for a final push, they would have the risk of losing him to waivers. In this case, I don't think we'd worry about that risk. Excellent withstanding points on LTIR though. I'm really not sure what the ruling is. I thought that LTIR didn't take effect during the summer, and that's why before it starts up officially, teams usually scramble to get under the cap a la Devils, TOR, DET, etc. for players that haven't played in two years.

 

[Evocable Manager]

I knew what you were getting at lol.

I do enjoy reading the mental jumping jacks some CBJ fans are doing, some are justifying him leaving via FA. The "experience" of potentially making the playoffs 3 times in a row and MAYBE winning a round will be good for their "youth". They lose Panarin, that experience wont mean much post Panarin

Oh I could absolutely see why CBJ would try and make a run. They have a strong team, that's probably only going to get better. Let's not forget how different that CBJ vs WSH series would've been if CBJ got the goal in that game 3 OT and goes up 3-0. If Bobrovsky gets hot and they are clicking at the right time, they can absolutely make a deep run with the level of parity in the NHL.

It's not like last season with the Isles where they were a tire fire from the beginning.

 

[Dbrownss]

Oh I could absolutely see why CBJ would try and make a run. They have a strong team, that's probably only going to get better. Let's not forget how different that CBJ vs WSH series would've been if CBJ got the goal in that game 3 OT and goes up 3-0. If Bobrovsky gets hot and they are clicking at the right time, they can absolutely make a deep run with the level of parity in the NHL.

It's not like last season with the Isles where they were a tire fire from the beginning.

That's the thing though, Shoulda coulda woulda. They were basically swept and nothing changes that. It doesn't sound like Panarin has any intent to stay there. So no matter what, they will lose him. Post Panarin they wont be nearly as good and they dont have any top tier prospects. Solid team but I dont see them getting past the 2nd round. Smart managment is to move Panarin for elite futures, which he'd bring back. Hell, even Bobrovsky could he moved in a tank move

 

[Stealth JD]

I don't see any way Steen finishes his contract in STL. 3 more years at $5.75M would be better spent elsewhere, likely as soon as '19-'20. In which case, the Blues have to hope that Steener can stave off a fifth straight season of decline and put up something resembling 2014 form if they're going to have any hope of finding a taker. It's crucial to get the under-performing and expensive vets off the team as soon as the Blues have younger, cheaper alternatives that can do the same role. As long as he's producing as a top-6 winger, there's a spot on this roster for Alexander Steen. But when he's getting pushed down the line-up, that salary must be churned.

Maybe Army can talk to Cheveldayoff about their 2C hole, and explain how great Steen looked in that role when called into duty for the Blues. He'd be a heck of a veteran leader after Stastny briefly assumed that role last year. Gotta think with his ties to the 'Peg, he'd be one of the few guys that may be open to playing there long-term.