Player Discussion: Blake Wheeler

[Jet]

if you're on a top-line and getting sporting a 35% goal share (14 gf, 25 ga), along with being out-shot/out-chanced most nights, while being one of the most inefficient Fwds on the team in terms of putting up points per TOI, perhaps you're not suited for that role anymore?

Disagree.

 

[DRW204]

Disagree.

i am not sure with what. he's a top-line player in role b/c maurice places him there. but as far his production, on-ice measures etc. he hasn't been performing as a top-line player. disagree all you want. you cannot disagree with at 5v5; -11/35% goal share, or 1.21 pts/60 (ranked 251st of NHL fwds with 200 mins played minimum). and the more advanced on-ice measure/metrics are even worse for him.

 

[Jet]

i am not sure with what. he's a top-line player in role b/c maurice places him there. but as far his production, on-ice measures etc. he hasn't been performing as a top-line player. disagree all you want. you cannot disagree with at 5v5; -11/35% goal share, or 1.21 pts/60 (ranked 251st of NHL fwds with 200 mins played minimum). and the more advanced on-ice measure/metrics are even worse for him.

The guy produces points consistently. Outside of all of these fancy stats, he has always produced on the top line and continues to do so (I know, 5v5 yadda yadda yadda). However, getting those minutes and playing with 55 benefits both when on the PP because they have synergy. They play off each other so well in all situations and that is built on reps and familiarity.

The problem with stats is they do not take into account the human impacts of hockey, which are frankly impossible to measure.

So, I disagree. Wheeler is exactly where this team needs him to be - whether or not he's perfect.

 

[DRW204]

The guy produces points consistently. Outside of all of these fancy stats, he has always produced on the top line and continues to do so (I know, 5v5 yadda yadda yadda). However, getting those minutes and playing with 55 benefits both when on the PP because they have synergy. They play off each other so well in all situations and that is built on reps and familiarity.

The problem with stats is they do not take into account the human impacts of hockey, which are frankly impossible to measure.

So, I disagree. Wheeler is exactly where this team needs him to be - whether or not he's perfect.

you can't just talk about a player being top line calibre and dismiss 5v5 production or goal-share. those are facts.

he played a majority away from scheifele in 19-20 and did fine on the PP.

again, if you think 35 GF% and 1.21 pts/60 is top-line quality, have at it.

 

[Krauser]

sporting a 35% goal share (14 gf, 25 ga)

In the post above from Feb 18th, it was 5 GF and 19 GA, so Wheeler's had a 60% goal share (+9, -6) at 5-v-5 over his last 10 games or so.

Wheeler was clearly struggling at the start of the year, but even then it was obvious that a fair amount of his terrible 5-v-5 GF/GA was due to bad luck. A few of the goals against happened just after he came on the ice on a line change, without a chance to touch the puck or make a play. Several involved unlucky bounces. He had one of the worst PDOs in the league as of last month. And while his PDO has improved a little (up to .960) it's still by far the worst on the Jets and likely to improve further from regression alone. His CF% and xGF% are still bad, but they've been improving since Stastny replaced Connor on the top line (Wheeler's xGF% is now better than Connor's, and has been catching up to PLD's).

 

[Whileee]

you can't just talk about a player being top line calibre and dismiss 5v5 production or goal-share. those are facts.

he played a majority away from scheifele in 19-20 and did fine on the PP.

again, if you think 35 GF% and 1.21 pts/60 is top-line quality, have at it.

I'd be cautious about over-interpreting on-ice goals for and against at this stage of the season. The Jets' on-ice shooting % with Wheeler has only been 7.6% (11th among Jets' forwards), despite Wheeler being among the NHL leaders in high-danger passing. Also, the Jets' goalies' save percentage (5v5) has been a woeful 0.887 with Wheeler on the ice, and it's pretty clear that skaters don't have much influence on shooting %. His overall PDO is only 0.963.

 

[DRW204]

In the post above from Feb 18th, it was 5 GF and 19 GA, so Wheeler's had a 60% goal share (+9, -6) at 5-v-5 over his last 10 games or so.

Wheeler was clearly struggling at the start of the year, but even then it was obvious that a fair amount of his terrible 5-v-5 GF/GA was due to bad luck. A few of the goals against happened just after he came on the ice on a line change, without a chance to touch the puck or make a play. Several involved unlucky bounces. He had one of the worst PDOs in the league as of last month. And while his PDO has improved a little (up to .960) it's still by far the worst on the Jets and likely to improve further from regression alone. His CF% and xGF% are still bad, but they've been improving since Stastny replaced Connor on the top line (Wheeler's xGF% is now better than Connor's, and has been catching up to PLD's).

his pdo is crap b/c he's terrible defensively and when he's on the ice and the jets give up lots of high-danger chances which obviously are tougher to save (evidently higher GA). yes playing with KC and Scheifele doesn't help as both are also poor defensively as well.

this is his heat map toward end of feb (i dont have access to view the update ones) - remember he plays lots w/ Scheif and KC so that obviously bleeds in to his stats

jeez, i wonder why he has such poor pdo? Helle isn't just saying oh 26 is on lets let them in.... the guy is getting absolutely peppered out there when wheeler is out there.

and If he's hurt and struggling that's all the more reason to play him less mins a bit lower down the lineup against lesser comp.

 

[DRW204]

I'd be cautious about over-interpreting on-ice goals for and against at this stage of the season. The Jets' on-ice shooting % with Wheeler has only been 7.6% (11th among Jets' forwards), despite Wheeler being among the NHL leaders in high-danger passing. Also, the Jets' goalies' save percentage (5v5) has been a woeful 0.887 with Wheeler on the ice, and it's pretty clear that skaters don't have much influence on shooting %. His overall PDO is only 0.963.

his last 2 year avg sh% is 8.4

give him 8.4% this year and he has 15 GF instead of 14 GF... big whoop?

his on-ice sv% is poor b/c he's been horrid defensively by all measures i've seen. see micah's heat map for example

by all isolate that ive seen (by evolvinghockey) wheeler ranks v poorly defensively

 

[Skidooboy]

So. the argument continues. fancy stats say wheeler sucks,Blah Blah Blah!!!


real stats show wheeler is elite amongst RW in the NHL CURRENTLY 6TH IN THE nhl THIS YEAR...…the team is winning, top ten in the NHL, tops of the division, just beat the division leaders in a three game series, and winning or tied records against any team in the division...... playff spot in any division in the league......


better find something to whine about.....but hey those fancy stats show wheeler sucks and the team is garbage.....
You CANT ARGUE WITH FANCY STATS THEY ARE FACTS!!!!! even if reality doesn't agree it's the stats that matter!!!!!


Have fun watching virtual hockey boys I'll enjoy the real world where Wheels is good and the Jets win.

 

[Jet]

So. the argument continues. fancy stats say wheeler sucks,Blah Blah Blah!!!


real stats show wheeler is elite amongst RW in the NHL CURRENTLY 6TH IN THE nhl THIS YEAR...…the team is winning, top ten in the NHL, tops of the division, just beat the division leaders in a three game series, and winning or tied records against any team in the division...... playff spot in any division in the league......


better find something to whine about.....but hey those fancy stats show wheeler sucks and the team is garbage.....
You CANT ARGUE WITH FANCY STATS THEY ARE FACTS!!!!! even if reality doesn't agree it's the stats that matter!!!!!


Have fun watching virtual hockey boys I'll enjoy the real world where Wheels is good and the Jets win.

Yup! Arguments like this just underline the shortcomings of advanced stats and especially their interpretation and usage to make an argument.

One of the biggest things I see is "If player A got the opportunity player B gets they'd do way better!" The problem with this is that not every player excels in different environments, with different players, strategies and quality of competition.

Yes, Ehlers is fantastic and he could well outperform Blake Wheeler if the roles were flipped. However, we do not know that until Ehlers demonstrates it in the real world. As much as Blake Wheeler sucks, all he does is produce. Keep him where he is - this team has bigger fish to fry imo.

 

[DRW204]

Whenever ehlers has been given the top line assignment, the top line performs better and he produces at a higher rate.

I also love how Maurice has people thinking Ehlers has done well because of managing his minutes:


This fails the simplest logic test:
1) Ehlers has scored more on the top line than he has on the 2nd line (relative to ice time)
2) His linemates on the top line also score more with him on there

Yup! Arguments like this just underline the shortcomings of advanced stats and especially their interpretation and usage to make an argument.

One of the biggest things I see is "If player A got the opportunity player B gets they'd do way better!" The problem with this is that not every player excels in different environments, with different players, strategies and quality of competition.

Yes, Ehlers is fantastic and he could well outperform Blake Wheeler if the roles were flipped. However, we do not know that until Ehlers demonstrates it in the real world. As much as Blake Wheeler sucks, all he does is produce. Keep him where he is - this team has bigger fish to fry imo.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Yes, Ehlers is fantastic and he could well outperform Blake Wheeler if the roles were flipped. However, we do not know that until Ehlers demonstrates it in the real world. As much as Blake Wheeler sucks, all he does is produce. Keep him where he is - this team has bigger fish to fry imo.

Blake Wheeler doesn't suck. He just sucks 5v5 in the way that Paul Maurice uses him - 1st line minutes. I think he would be much more successful on the third line 5v5. So would the team.

Wheeler is great at piling up points in odd man situations, specifically when the Jets have more skaters on the ice ie power play. The Jets have many talented forwards that could slot in to Wheelers spot on the #1 powerplay and it would be as good or better in my opinion. Wheeler is good at passing when there is no pressure. They moved him off the half wall because he has been so bad at turning over the puck on our powerplays when he has it at the half wall. A bit of pressure and its over. So they moved him to quarterback from behind the net, it's harder to pressure the puck holder behind the net. But Wheeler is usually way late in rotating out from behind to the front of the net to create screens on the powerplay. If you look at his timing on rotation, it looks like he is timing it more just to clean up a rebound. Maybe he doesn't want to get hurt from a shot, not sure. What he should be doing is timing his rotation to create a screen AND to clean up a rebound. The Screen will help more shots find the back of the net, plus a rebound is more likely if there is traffic in front and the keeper can't see the shot coming through. Anyway, we will have to wait until what the '24-'25 season to see how our #1 powerplay could perform without Wheels.

Also, no one that I can think of is better at piling up Empty Net points than Blake Wheeler. He excels at that.

 

[Jet]

Blake Wheeler doesn't suck. He just sucks 5v5 in the way that Paul Maurice uses him - 1st line minutes. I think he would be much more successful on the third line 5v5. So would the team.

Wheeler is great at piling up points in odd man situations, specifically when the Jets have more skaters on the ice ie power play. The Jets have many talented forwards that could slot in to Wheelers spot on the #1 powerplay and it would be as good or better in my opinion. Wheeler is good at passing when there is no pressure. They moved him off the half wall because he has been so bad at turning over the puck on our powerplays when he has it at the half wall. A bit of pressure and its over. So they moved him to quarterback from behind the net, it's harder to pressure the puck holder behind the net. But Wheeler is usually way late in rotating out from behind to the front of the net to create screens on the powerplay. If you look at his timing on rotation, it looks like he is timing it more just to clean up a rebound. Maybe he doesn't want to get hurt from a shot, not sure. What he should be doing is timing his rotation to create a screen AND to clean up a rebound. The Screen will help more shots find the back of the net, plus a rebound is more likely if there is traffic in front and the keeper can't see the shot coming through. Anyway, we will have to wait until what the '24-'25 season to see how our #1 powerplay could perform without Wheels.

Also, no one that I can think of is better at piling up Empty Net points that Blake Wheeler. He excels at that.

Again, piling up empty net points is a meme. We've scored 4 en goals this year. Do we have stats on this to back up the en claim?

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Again, piling up empty net points is a meme. We've scored 4 en goals this year. Do we have stats on this to back up the en claim?

Is it a meme if he is top 6 or 7 for all players in NHL history?

Adjusted for games played, looks like he is top 6 or 7 in NHL history for EN Goals. Certainly #1 in Jets history, AINEC.

Who Has The Most Career Empty Net Goals | StatMuse

 

[Jet]

Is it a meme if he is top 6 or 7 for all players in NHL history?

Adjusted for games played, looks like he is top 6 or 7 in NHL history. Certainly #1 in Jets history, AINEC.

Who Has The Most Career Empty Net Goals | StatMuse

Good lord! So now we are trying to assert that Blake Wheeler isn't one of the best wingers in the league over the past few seasons because of empty net points.

There's no point in continuing this discussion if that's your take.

 

[Jet]

Since 2017 to current, RW leaders in the NHL. Blake is currently 6th in points this year and 4th over the designated period:

 

[DannyGallivan]

Good lord! So now we are trying to assert that Blake Wheeler isn't one of the best wingers in the league over the past few seasons because of empty net points.

There's no point in continuing this discussion if that's your take.

That Gretzky guy had a lot of empty net goals as well. Wheeler's ahead of guys like Crosby, Dionne and Kane. Bure had a ton of empty-netters compared to his career games played. Wheeler does have the highest career percentage of empty netters compared to his overall goal total (something like 9 per cent. For comparison's sake, Gretzky is at about 6 per cent).

Interesting to see who's on this list and how many they've had.

Who Has The Most Career Empty Net Goals | StatMuse

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Good lord! So now we are trying to assert that Blake Wheeler isn't one of the best wingers in the league over the past few seasons because of empty net points.

There's no point in continuing this discussion if that's your take.

Excuse me, but you asked for specific stats and I gave them to you. So you rotate to this response? Seriously?

Quite frankly you come off as the person who doesn't want to have a discussion here.

 

[Whileee]

his last 2 year avg sh% is 8.4

give him 8.4% this year and he has 15 GF instead of 14 GF... big whoop?

his on-ice sv% is poor b/c he's been horrid defensively by all measures i've seen. see micah's heat map for example

by all isolate that ive seen (by evolvinghockey) wheeler ranks v poorly defensively

I think you missed the part about Wheeler being near the top of the NHL in terms of high danger passes, but with a low on ice sh%.

Wheeler has been bad defensively, but he's been better offensively than the results show at 5v5.

 

[JetsFan815]

And moreover... EN points are a skill. They are not free points. Statistically... no one... not even Copp/Lowry have been better at closing games than Wheeler has... this includes preventing goals against and icing the game by scoring in the EN. Jets have been one of the best teams in the league in EN situations thanks in large part to Wheeler.

In the last 3 seasons in EN situations the team with the best GF/60 is 23.61 and the team with the 2nd best GA/60 is at 5.18.

During this period Wheeler has averaged 25.15 GF/60 and 7.19 GA/60 and his GF% would put him as easily the 3rd best team in league. Remember that the next time your chirp him about EN situations.

 

[DRW204]

I think you missed the part about Wheeler being near the top of the NHL in terms of high danger passes, but with a low on ice sh%.

Wheeler has been bad defensively, but he's been better offensively than the results show at 5v5.

didn't miss it at all. wheeler is a talented passer and im willing to bet he produces HD passes at a similar rate in previous years. and even then, his SH% is not that much different than it is currently (8.06%-8.8% over the last 4 years. it's a difference of 1-2 GF vs to what it is now given the same on-ice shots for).

did you miss the part that his on-ice sh% of 7.61% doesn't deviate much from his average over the past 2 years? even if you give him 9.51% (which is highest as a Jet) he'd still be heavily under 50% of the 5v5 goal share? while he continues to be poor defensively, and get out-shot and out-chanced at 5v5

 

[Skidooboy]

Blake Wheeler doesn't suck. He just sucks 5v5 in the way that Paul Maurice uses him - 1st line minutes. I think he would be much more successful on the third line 5v5. So would the team.

Wheeler is great at piling up points in odd man situations, specifically when the Jets have more skaters on the ice ie power play. The Jets have many talented forwards that could slot in to Wheelers spot on the #1 powerplay and it would be as good or better in my opinion. Wheeler is good at passing when there is no pressure. They moved him off the half wall because he has been so bad at turning over the puck on our powerplays when he has it at the half wall. A bit of pressure and its over. So they moved him to quarterback from behind the net, it's harder to pressure the puck holder behind the net. But Wheeler is usually way late in rotating out from behind to the front of the net to create screens on the powerplay. If you look at his timing on rotation, it looks like he is timing it more just to clean up a rebound. Maybe he doesn't want to get hurt from a shot, not sure. What he should be doing is timing his rotation to create a screen AND to clean up a rebound. The Screen will help more shots find the back of the net, plus a rebound is more likely if there is traffic in front and the keeper can't see the shot coming through. Anyway, we will have to wait until what the '24-'25 season to see how our #1 powerplay could perform without Wheels.

Also, no one that I can think of is better at piling up Empty Net points than Blake Wheeler. He excels at that.

So. to sum up wheeler sucksDefence, and sucks at 5-5.... even though he scores and his team wins......becausewheeler excels when shorthanded 6-5, when, according to fancy stats his failings should be on full display...... he apparently can't properly defend but is almost always out in key moments and 6-5 empty net situations....ones the Jets do pretty good in statistically…. In fact, he fails so bad at defending he scores empty net goals when defending shorthanded at an above average pace.....

Can you not see the pointlessness of your arguments? the denial of fact in the face of an unproven theoretical model's figures... Tha should tell you there is more at play than your model is accounting for. doggedly demanding it's the model that's correct and reality is wrong is not maths or science...it's bravado and ignorance.

I could see it if this was a blip or a freak and he was a meh player who was having a big year....., But year over year wheeler is one of the best scorers in the league, he has been one of the very best at RW in the league, and has been for almost a decade! Coach loves him, linemates love him.

You aren't proving a point, you aren't making an argument...you're creating a false narrative.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

And moreover... EN points are a skill. They are not free points. Statistically... no one... not even Copp/Lowry have been better at closing games than Wheeler has... this includes preventing goals against and icing the game by scoring in the EN. Jets have been one of the best teams in the league in EN situations thanks in large part to Wheeler.

In the last 3 seasons in EN situations the team with the best GF/60 is 23.61 and the team with the 2nd best GA/60 is at 5.18.

During this period Wheeler has averaged 25.15 GF/60 and 7.19 GA/60 and his GF% would put him as easily the 3rd best team in league. Remember that the next time your chirp him about EN situations.

I don't know if this is directed at me. If not, disregard my post.

If so, I will remind you that I am the one who brought up his EN prowess in the first place. He excels at EN situations. It's like he finds a new life. He skates like he did three years ago, when there is an EN. So I don't need your 'chirping' comment. Perhaps someone else on the talented Jets forward lineup could do as well in EN situations if they had Blakes ice time EN, but it's not as if we are going to find out soon. But yeah, as I said earlier, no one that I can think of is better at piling up Empty Net points than Blake Wheeler. He excels at that. I said it before you did.

My concerns about Wheeler's contribution to the team are his 5v5 play. Early this season, he was like replacement level bad. Some people attribute it to him needing to get going or something like that. He has been better of late. His 5v5 play is still not up to 1st line quality of play and I believe that he would be more successful at, say, third line. That would make him and the team more successful imho. Not saying it will happen - we know how close Wheeler and Maurice are. Just saying that it might help us not get caved in so much against other team's top lines.

I am loving the Jets season this year. Funnest year since '17-'18. Go Jets Go!

 

[Whileee]

didn't miss it at all. wheeler is a talented passer and im willing to bet he produces HD passes at a similar rate in previous years. and even then, his SH% is not that much different than it is currently (8.06%-8.8% over the last 4 years. it's a difference of 1-2 GF vs to what it is now given the same on-ice shots for).

did you miss the part that his on-ice sh% of 7.61% doesn't deviate much from his average over the past 2 years? even if you give him 9.51% (which is highest as a Jet) he'd still be heavily under 50% of the 5v5 goal share? while he continues to be poor defensively, and get out-shot and out-chanced at 5v5

I maintain that basing performance assessment on goal share with this sample size is not very reliable, considering the variables.

I've acknowledged that his on-ice defensive shot metrics are bad, but I also doubt those will continue at that level if he continues to play as he has recently.

The notion that his point production is mainly good fortune is way off base. He has a particular skill as a playmaker, and he uses it at even-strength, on the PP, and with empty net and OT.

 

[Skidooboy]

Fancy stats crew each and every year for the past 10 years:
"Wheeler is going to regress and suck he's bad"

Wheeler:
top 10 RW in the league, winning record, lots of points.

Fancy stats crew
"This year you can really see it, Wheeler is horrible and the team is worse off when he's on the ice"

Wheeler: scores at point per game pace and 30+ goals rate for rest of year

Fancy stats crew "yeah but if you look at THESE numbers you can see the team s no good and Wheeler is crap and the Jets SHOULD BE LOSING MORE"

Wheeler/Jets:
Keep winning