Auston Matthews Thread

[Throw More Waffles]

again do the math. It’s not hard

The tax advantage doesn’t just disappear into the abyss. It either goes to the billionaire owners, or the players. I don’t believe for a second that the players just cede that tax advantage to the billionaire owners. It’s an insane argument. Why not just admit that our gm isn’t very good at contracts?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

To reinvest in the team and put together a better product seems like the obvious answer.

Doesn’t that apply to leaf players as well? They could have signed for less so that ownership reinvests it in the tram. They didn’t. They fought for every last penny. So would Tampa players. They wouldn’t cede their tax advantage to billionaires.

 

[Gallagbi]

Doesn’t that apply to leaf players as well? They could have signed for less so that ownership reinvests it in the tram. They didn’t. They fought for every last penny. So would Tampa players. They wouldn’t cede their tax advantage to billionaires.

They aren't "signing for less" though if their take home is the same, or even a touch higher in a low tax state. Money in their pocket is the same with more resources to be reinvested in the team.

Not sure I buy it in many situations, but the logic is easy to follow and you seem to be missing it. Don't know US tax laws well enough to say the state tax makes much of a difference.

 

[Martin Skoula]

So there’s no real quantifiable advantage. Some billionaires convince their players to cede the tax advantage to them (lol). And others can’t. Players fight for every penny. They wouldn’t cede the tax advantage to billionaires.

Yep, the billionaires pocket that extra 500k instead of spending it on other players, brilliant analysis.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

They aren't "signing for less" though if their take home is the same, or even a touch higher in a low tax state. Money in their pocket is the same with more resources to be reinvested in the team.

Not sure I buy it in many situations, but the logic is easy to follow and you seem to be missing it. Don't know US tax laws well enough to say the state tax makes much of a difference.

They’re going to cite the same cap percentage/term as comparables. If it’s pointed out they pay less taxes, they’d say “good for me”. They wouldn’t cede that tax advantage to billionaires.

 

[Legion34]

The tax advantage doesn’t just disappear into the abyss. It either goes to the billionaire owners, or the players. I don’t believe for a second that the players just cede that tax advantage to the billionaire owners. It’s an insane argument. Why not just admit that our gm isn’t very good at contracts?

ughhhh you still have no arguments. It’s just sad. Stop

 

[rielledup]

No other team does this.

70 point players are paid as 70 point players regardless of the nonsense. Other teams don’t say “Yeah, he only got 70 points... but what he had better linemates? More minutes? More pp time? Let’s pay him based on those fake numbers.” No other team does this.

If that’s the way it worked, pretty much every third liner would be paid as a star player. “Sure... he only got 35 points. But what if played 20 minutes a game? Was in the 1st pp? Had elite linemates? He’d probably score 60 points. So now we have to pay him as a 60 point player”. It’s insanity. Other teams don’t do this.

He only had 70 points because he missed a bunch of games, it's incredibly frustrating that some people on here seem to think it's not relevant for some reason. Do you really think that GMs pay players based on raw point totals and don't put those numbers into context? Why do you think Eichel got 10 mil a year after a 57 point season?

Unless you can tell the future and you know a player is going to miss 15-20 games every season, you don't pay a player who had 73 points in 68 games the same as you would pay a player that had 73 points in 82 games, that would just be stupid and wouldn't fly with the player and his agent.

Also, AM,JT and MM all played atleast 45 seconds less on the pp per game than almost all the other players in the top 20 in points last year. If you do the math that projects to AM being on pace for 95 points had he played an extra 45 seconds on the pp, despite playing with 3rd liners that finished the season with 40 points.

I think AM can easily be a player that consistently puts up around 50 and a 100 if he stays healthy and Willy can play like a legit 1st liner.

 

[Gallagbi]

They’re going to cite the same cap percentage/term as comparables. If it’s pointed out they pay less taxes, they’d say “good for me”. They wouldn’t cede that tax advantage to billionaires.

See the last post I made and try again

 

[shaner82]

You’d think you’d wait until there was some semblance of success in Dubas’s method before playing all holier than thou. Three first round losses and the team is currently like 5 games below .500

The teams that pay their players based on real points (as opposed to fake points) continuously humiliate Dubas.

Dubas came right out and said he’s betting his career on this method. If it continues to fail, I suppose you’ll take an even longer “break” from the forum.

5 games umder .500?

 

[Notsince67]

We dont actually know that.

Yeah we do. More than one person has looked at this

 

[Hustlr]

Hockey is played on the ice, not the stat sheet.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

He always starts strong, gets injured at some point, and ends up with 65-75 points. Same thing will likely happen this year.

He plays a non-contact game now. His health is much safer now. No tenacity but less likely to be injured

 

[biotk]

lol he's already invested way too much into his anti-Dubas rhetoric to change directions now.

I agree - but I think the pathology goes way deeper than that. When news comes out that (at least) one of the players on the team was abused by the coach there is no concern for the players. Management is blamed instead, while he talks wistfully about the possibility of Babs getting revenge by spreading dirt about the players.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I don’t believe the tax argument.

I don’t believe for a second that players are ceding their tax advantage to billionaire owners. Not for a second.

Player “I want the same cap percentage and term as Matthews.”
Team “Ah, but you pay less taxes here. So we’re taking your tax advantage for ourselves, and subtracting it out of your overall salary.”
Player “ok, no problem.”

That’s insane. Don’t believe it for a second.

I never see eye to eye with you on Matthews and likely never will and i mean eternity but i think the tax benefit is exaggerated on the boards. Teams actually be running a tighter budget than our Leafs.

Matthews. Best goal scoring center in the league and likely the leagues premier scoring threat for years to come. “Auston power baby” be shaggin. Ha

 

[Logic]

He only had 70 points because he missed a bunch of games, it's incredibly frustrating that some people on here seem to think it's not relevant for some reason. Do you really think that GMs pay players based on raw point totals and don't put those numbers into context? Why do you think Eichel got 10 mil a year after a 57 point season?

Unless you can tell the future and you know a player is going to miss 15-20 games every season, you don't pay a player who had 73 points in 68 games the same as you would pay a player that had 73 points in 82 games, that would just be stupid and wouldn't fly with the player and his agent.

Also, AM,JT and MM all played atleast 45 seconds less on the pp per game than almost all the other players in the top 20 in points last year. If you do the math that projects to AM being on pace for 95 points had he played an extra 45 seconds on the pp, despite playing with 3rd liners that finished the season with 40 points.

I think AM can easily be a player that consistently puts up around 50 and a 100 if he stays healthy and Willy can play like a legit 1st liner.

It seems like people are ignoring the fact he was injured because it makes their argument sound better to just call him a 70 point player without acknowledging the fact he only played 68 games.

 

[ihadtochangethename]

i cant recall overdrive saying that he wasn't in shape and i listen to them regularly. I wish that poster would clarify

 

[zeke]

Yeah we do. More than one person has looked at this

they've shown a correlation which almost certainly ignores a more important causation.

 

[ToDavid]

He always starts strong, gets injured at some point, and ends up with 65-75 points. Same thing will likely happen this year.

I’d be thrilled if he keeps up this production though. And then he would at least be somewhat near earning his contract.

What's your definition of always?

In 2/3 years his start was more or less in line with the rest of his season. In 2018-19 his drop off mirrored the team's drop off from a super hot scoring start. This season he's 7th in points, T3rd in goals, despite the team's poor offense. If they can start gelling, if they can figure out the PP, he'll not only sustain his production he'll very likely improve.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

What's your definition of always?

In 2/3 years his start was more or less in line with the rest of his season. In 2018-19 his drop off mirrored the team's drop off from a super hot scoring start. This season he's 7th in points, T3rd in goals, despite the team's poor offense. If they can start gelling, if they can figure out the PP, he'll not only sustain his production he'll very likely improve.

Scoring is always higher league wide the first few months and then we see a decrease especially in the few months before the playoffs. Likely Matthews pace slows down a little

 

[Zybalto]

Of all the players to complain about.....

Matthews has been playing well for almost his whole career.

So far hes a franchise #1 center and generational goal scorer literally since entering the league out of the draft.

There must be more important things to complain about.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Of all the players to complain about.....

Matthews has been playing well for almost his whole career.

So far hes a franchise #1 center and generational goal scorer literally since entering the league out of the draft.

There must be more important things to complain about.

Yes please common here. You never rag on your best player. Without Matty we don't even sniff playoffs yet. Now with Matty and Tavares we rival Pittsburgh for best 1-2 punch in league.

 

[Zybalto]

Yes please common here. You never rag on your best player. Without Matty we don't even sniff playoffs yet. Now with Matty and Tavares we rival Pittsburgh for best 1-2 punch in league.

I could understand if he was struggling or something but I think folks gave a real problem separating cap anxieties from the play and even there hes probably worth the cap hit.

 

[zeke]

18-19 First 25gms: ES 3.03p1/60, 3.83p/60, 14.1oish% / PP 10.53p1/60, 10.53p/60, 20.5oish%
18-19 Rest Season: ES 1.96p1/60, 2.41p/60, 7.4oish% / PP 3.79p1/60, 4.88p/60, 10.0oish%

19-20 First 24gms: ES 2.54p1/60, 2.99p/60, 10.0oish% / PP 4.65p1/60, 5.42p/60, 13.4oish%


So last year's hot start was always going to slow down. His oish% at both even strength and on the PP was much too high to last for very long. His p/60s were never going to stay at those insane levels - though he would still have managed an elite raw point production level if his coach had given him elite ice time like all the other elite players get.

This year, though, there's no hotness in his numbers - his oish% is right where you'd expect at even strength. And it's actually a bit low on the PP - which isnt surprising given how poor the PP has been. But he's still putting up elite raw point production even with the modest oish%, because now he's finally getting closer to the kind of ice time that every other top scorer gets - though of course he's still well behind most of them.

Going forward this year, I would wager that the ES oish% will stay about the same, and that the PP oish% will actually go up, not down. And, of course, i'm pretty sure his minutes in both situations will go up, not down.

I would bet on Matthews improving on his current 98pt pace going forward.

 

[Eye Test]

They’re going to cite the same cap percentage/term as comparables. If it’s pointed out they pay less taxes, they’d say “good for me”. They wouldn’t cede that tax advantage to billionaires.

Bro do the damn math and stop crowding the boards with the same thing over and over it’s not rocket science.

I don’t like ignoring posters who have different views because I value different insights but just spewing the same thing over and over when your clearly wrong is so frustrating when reading the boards.

Cheers

 

[Ziggdiezan]

18-19 First 25gms: ES 3.03p1/60, 3.83p/60, 14.1oish% / PP 10.53p1/60, 10.53p/60, 20.5oish%
18-19 Rest Season: ES 1.96p1/60, 2.41p/60, 7.4oish% / PP 3.79p1/60, 4.88p/60, 10.0oish%

19-20 First 24gms: ES 2.54p1/60, 2.99p/60, 10.0oish% / PP 4.65p1/60, 5.42p/60, 13.4oish%


So last year's hot start was always going to slow down. His oish% at both even strength and on the PP was much too high to last for very long. His p/60s were never going to stay at those insane levels - though he would still have managed an elite raw point production level if his coach had given him elite ice time like all the other elite players get.

This year, though, there's no hotness in his numbers - his oish% is right where you'd expect at even strength. And it's actually a bit low on the PP - which isnt surprising given how poor the PP has been. But he's still putting up elite raw point production even with the modest oish%, because now he's finally getting closer to the kind of ice time that every other top scorer gets - though of course he's still well behind most of them.

Going forward this year, I would wager that the ES oish% will stay about the same, and that the PP oish% will actually go up, not down. And, of course, i'm pretty sure his minutes in both situations will go up, not down.

I would bet on Matthews improving on his current 98pt pace going forward.

I could see Matthews improving his raw total pace as his ice time will likely be drastically increased on the PP. However do you think he will sustain his pts/60 and goals/60 at even strength?

It is tricky to use those 'rest of season' stats as Matthews is always slow getting back to full speed after an injury. For example we would perhaps expect his current pace to regress to the large sample sizes of 'rest of season'. However it isnt exactly a good representation of Matthews play (unless he gets injuried again).