Auston Matthews Thread

[zeke]

I could see Matthews improving his raw total pace as his ice time will likely be drastically increased on the PP. However do you think he will sustain his pts/60 and goals/60 at even strength?

Yeah I don't think that's an issue.

This Yr ES: 1.64g/60, 2.54p1/60, 2.99p/60, 10.0oish%
Prev 2yrs: 1.59g/60, 2.49p1/60, 2.93p/60, 11.0oish%
Career ES: 1.56g/60, 2.34p1/60, 2.71p/60, 9.9oish%

He's just doing his thing at ES this year so far, maybe slightly better due to growth and better linemates.

Remains to be seen whether Keefe's system ends up making any real change in Austin's p60 rates. Or if keefe does something crazy like give him BOTH willy and mitch to play with at the same time.

 

[Notsince67]

they've shown a correlation which almost certainly ignores a more important causation.

That doesnt even make sense. It is obvious if somone played 60 minutes per game that their p/60 would decline (looking at the extreme limit). The only question is at what threshold does it begin to decline. If you dont support the stats, so be it. Put up your numbers where they decline because there is no disputing they decline.

 

[zeke]

That doesnt even make sense. It is obvious if somone played 60 minutes per game that their p/60 would decline (looking at the extreme limit). The only question is at what threshold does it begin to decline. If you dont support the stats, so be it. Put up your numbers where they decline because there is no disputing they decline.

Actually there is both.

They have shown decline using arbitrary cutoffs. They have mixed data between those increasing from 4th line to 2nd line usage and the much different move from 1st line usage to elite 1st line usage.

They have made no consideration of the fact that most large increases in minutes inherently include a large increase in quality of competition.

Like I said, they've shown some limited causation using certain cutoffs while ignoring much more likely causal factors.

And anyways, Matthews actually gets more even strength minutes than most already - in fact by your studies Matthew's is actually at a disadvantage in p60 due to his high ES minutes, not at an advantage. and it would be actually impossible for him to receive more than 1-2 minute boost there (i.e. below the thresholds your studies show correlation for). The greatest difference between him and the other elite scorers is that they receive an addition 1-2 pp minutes - something which none of your studies have shown any correlation for.

 

[Stephen]

i cant recall overdrive saying that he wasn't in shape and i listen to them regularly. I wish that poster would clarify

They said he’s a big guy and not in the greatest shape and playing big minutes and extra shifts is a hard adjustment after 3 years at his current utilization.

 

[Stephen]

I’m thinking with Babcock’s ouster the chance of Matthews staying long term just went up, by a lot.

 

[Apotheosis]

I’m thinking with Babcock’s ouster the chance of Matthews staying long term just went up, by a lot.

I think it's certain. Dude is about to absolutely explode offensively. If anything, he was probably shackled since he got in to the league. Same with Nylander and Marner. This will be the first time we will see them under a modern, offence first coach.

 

[34]

I’m thinking with Babcock’s ouster the chance of Matthews staying long term just went up, by a lot.

Huge!

Matthews should have been named Captain to begin with, this is his team.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yeah I don't think that's an issue.

This Yr ES: 1.64g/60, 2.54p1/60, 2.99p/60, 10.0oish%
Prev 2yrs: 1.59g/60, 2.49p1/60, 2.93p/60, 11.0oish%
Career ES: 1.56g/60, 2.34p1/60, 2.71p/60, 9.9oish%

He's just doing his thing at ES this year so far, maybe slightly better due to growth and better linemates.

Remains to be seen whether Keefe's system ends up making any real change in Austin's p60 rates. Or if keefe does something crazy like give him BOTH willy and mitch to play with at the same time.

The previous 2 year stats likely includes his hot starts both this year and last year with only half a year of poor play so it is better to look at career. Looks like a little better but I agree likely due to growth as a player.

Matthews has historically been a pretty hot starter for the leafs so it will be interesting to see this year if that is due to injuries, fatigue or producing less when teams tighten up. Assuming he remains healthy this season of course.

He has been the leafs best player by far this year. When he decides he wants to take a game over he does. I just wish he could bring consistency in that, maybe it is age/maturity but I hope it isnt some lingering shoulder/back injury.

 

[Stephen]

Huge!

Matthews should have been named Captain to begin with, this is his team.

Yeah, Matthews really should be the captain.

 

[34]

Yeah, Matthews really should be the captain.

Yeah, we cannot change that now. I am just happy the team can move forward without Babcock.

I honestly believe that Keefe is going to bring the best out of the team.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Remains to be seen whether Keefe's system ends up making any real change in Austin's p60 rates. Or if keefe does something crazy like give him BOTH willy and mitch to play with at the same time.

Seems crazy in a Babcock world, but it isn't even putting all your eggs in one basket. You still have Tavares, who has spent a career making 30 and 40 goal scorers out of lesser players than Kapanen or Johnsson, but this time with secondary matchups.

 

[zeke]

The previous 2 year stats likely includes his hot starts both this year and last year with only half a year of poor play so it is better to look at career.

1. No, that was the previous 2 full seasons, not including this year.

2. As I think I showed above, there is no real "hotness" in auston's start this year.

 

[zeke]

Yeah, Matthews really should be the captain.

He is.

 

[zeke]

Seems crazy in a Babcock world, but it isn't even putting all your eggs in one basket. You still have Tavares, who has spent a career making 30 and 40 goal scorers out of lesser players than Kapanen or Johnsson, but this time with secondary matchups.

You so crazy.

 

[Trapper]

Actually there is both.

They have shown decline using arbitrary cutoffs. They have mixed data between those increasing from 4th line to 2nd line usage and the much different move from 1st line usage to elite 1st line usage.

They have made no consideration of the fact that most large increases in minutes inherently include a large increase in quality of competition.

Like I said, they've shown some limited causation using certain cutoffs while ignoring much more likely causal factors.

And anyways, Matthews actually gets more even strength minutes than most already - in fact by your studies Matthew's is actually at a disadvantage in p60 due to his high ES minutes, not at an advantage. and it would be actually impossible for him to receive more than 1-2 minute boost there (i.e. below the thresholds your studies show correlation for). The greatest difference between him and the other elite scorers is that they receive an addition 1-2 pp minutes - something which none of your studies have shown any correlation for.

How much would Matthews minutes change if he got used on the PP more like Ovi is used in Washington.
I’d rather him out there for most of the 2 minutes with the other guys rotating around him. Let Willy/Mitch/Barrie carry the puck in and Matthews set up expending less energy as the shooter.
Did Keefe have a go to guy on the Marlies like that? Was Bracco used a lot of PP minutes?

 

[zeke]

How much would Matthews minutes change if he got used on the PP more like Ovi is used in Washington.
I’d rather him out there for most of the 2 minutes with the other guys rotating around him. Let Willy/Mitch/Barrie carry the puck in and Matthews set up expending less energy as the shooter.
Did Keefe have a go to guy on the Marlies like that? Was Bracco used a lot of PP minutes?

Auston's minutes are better this year so far. Not nearly the PP minutes Ovy gets still, but better. before that were just way too low, period.

Auston 19-20: 16:33es, 3:13pp (1.20ppg)
Ovechkin 19-20: 16:19es, 4:44pp (1.00ppg)
Auston last 3yrs: 15:39es, 2:24pp (.97ppg)

As for what keefe will do, we'll have to see, but the good news is that of the two PPs we've had so far under keefe, Auston has played every single second of both.

 

[joepeps]

Auston's minutes are better this year so far. Not nearly the PP minutes Ovy gets still, but better. before that were just way too low, period.

Auston 19-20: 16:33es, 3:13pp (1.20ppg)
Ovechkin 19-20: 16:19es, 4:44pp (1.00ppg)
Auston last 3yrs: 15:39es, 2:24pp (.97ppg)

As for what keefe will do, we'll have to see, but the good news is that of the two PPs we've had so far under keefe, Auston has played every single second of both.

I don't think it's a time on ice issue for the year as oppose to game by game... If we are down a goal or 2... play the guy.. if we are up 3 or 4 then his mins will be less.


Thats the issue... So many times we will be losing by 1 goal and the 4th line is getting more mins than him down the stretch.

 

[WTFMAN99]

If the PP can improve at all...production should go up and I think Keefe will help things as well. I have liked what I have seen but I have only been able to see half of each game under Keefe so far.

 

[Funk21]

As the OP stated while Matthews numbers are on Pace to have career highs if he stays healthy Matthews is enigmatic most games. Invisible for most of the game and especially in those that matter most. No physicality at all, and very little effort.

How has this guy not added a one timer?

If he was signed for 8 years at 11.5 I would be okay with his contract but the fact he is going to get another raise and likely push the % of the cap yet again I am indifferent to the idea of this guy being our franchise C.

 

[saffronleaf]

Seems crazy in a Babcock world, but it isn't even putting all your eggs in one basket. You still have Tavares, who has spent a career making 30 and 40 goal scorers out of lesser players than Kapanen or Johnsson, but this time with secondary matchups.

my only concern would be whether they would benefit from having one bigger / physical player on the line like Kapanen or Mikheyev or Hyman

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

As the OP stated while Matthews numbers are on Pace to have career highs if he stays healthy Matthews is enigmatic most games. Invisible for most of the game and especially in those that matter most. No physicality at all, and very little effort.

How has this guy not added a one timer?

If he was signed for 8 years at 11.5 I would be okay with his contract but the fact he is going to get another raise and likely push the % of the cap yet again I am indifferent to the idea of this guy being our franchise C.

Gotta love how you spend the first part of your post blasting him and then whine about not having him locked up for long enough

 

[Dreakmur]

Matthews should have been named Captain to begin with, this is his team.

Great talent, but he has not show much leadership ability.

 

[Funk21]

Gotta love how you spend the first part of your post blasting him and then whine about not having him locked up for long enough

If you don’t think cap % has anything to do with perceived value of a player then you must not know anything about the business of sports. Especially hockey where there is a hard cap. We gave him basically everything he wanted and right now his percentage of the cap doesn’t justify the production or the effort (what he brings to the team) on a nightly basis. Down the road that will change as the cap jumps to 100 million plus and his percentage drops. For a player making 14.6% of the cap I expect him to be as close to McJesus/Crosby, etc as possible. I don’t hold him up to anywhere near that value.

 

[Sypher04]

As the OP stated while Matthews numbers are on Pace to have career highs if he stays healthy Matthews is enigmatic most games. Invisible for most of the game and especially in those that matter most. No physicality at all, and very little effort.

How has this guy not added a one timer?

If he was signed for 8 years at 11.5 I would be okay with his contract but the fact he is going to get another raise and likely push the % of the cap yet again I am indifferent to the idea of this guy being our franchise C.

Matthews has NEVER been an overly physical player. Not in the sense that it seems you're looking for anyway. He uses his size pretty well, but he isn't out there going out of his way to throw the body. I'm fine with that.

Also, suggesting Matthews gives very little effort most of the time is completely ridiculous.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

As the OP stated while Matthews numbers are on Pace to have career highs if he stays healthy Matthews is enigmatic most games. Invisible for most of the game and especially in those that matter most. No physicality at all, and very little effort.

I've seen the exact same from many stars with Malkin being a prime example. Entire games where you don't even know he's on the ice yet at the end of the night, there he is with 2 points.