18-19 First 25gms: ES 3.03p1/60, 3.83p/60, 14.1oish% / PP 10.53p1/60, 10.53p/60, 20.5oish%
18-19 Rest Season: ES 1.96p1/60, 2.41p/60, 7.4oish% / PP 3.79p1/60, 4.88p/60, 10.0oish%
19-20 First 24gms: ES 2.54p1/60, 2.99p/60, 10.0oish% / PP 4.65p1/60, 5.42p/60, 13.4oish%
So last year's hot start was always going to slow down. His oish% at both even strength and on the PP was much too high to last for very long. His p/60s were never going to stay at those insane levels - though he would still have managed an elite raw point production level if his coach had given him elite ice time like all the other elite players get.
This year, though, there's no hotness in his numbers - his oish% is right where you'd expect at even strength. And it's actually a bit low on the PP - which isnt surprising given how poor the PP has been. But he's still putting up elite raw point production even with the modest oish%, because now he's finally getting closer to the kind of ice time that every other top scorer gets - though of course he's still well behind most of them.
Going forward this year, I would wager that the ES oish% will stay about the same, and that the PP oish% will actually go up, not down. And, of course, i'm pretty sure his minutes in both situations will go up, not down.
I would bet on Matthews improving on his current 98pt pace going forward.