Dreger: "Auston Matthews 100% is not going anywhere."

[Karl Eriksson]

Get ready for your cable and internet bills to go up, because Austin is gonna take them to the cleaners. He has all the leverage, and should be able to extract like $16M AAV. It’s also the premium the leafs need to pay to keep him signed despite their cup window closing.

 

[Legion34]

Get ready for your cable and internet bills to go up, because Austin is gonna take them to the cleaners. He has all the leverage, and should be able to extract like $16M AAV. It’s also the premium the leafs need to pay to keep him signed despite their cup window closing.

So if they get him for less. Does that mean Matthews is a team first player? Or tre is a great gm?

 

[Skolman]

Yep and Chicago amongst others would also give him the same 15m salary.

Very doubtful

So if they get him for less. Does that mean Matthews is a team first player? Or tre is a great gm?

Neither.

Matthews won't get anywhere near 16 mil per on his next contract, nor should he be even close to that number

 

[DueDiligence]

Because we only played Ottawa four times?

Matthews was so good against Ottawa last year he scored zero goals against them.

 

[thaman8765678]

Treliving has a great track record for re signing his top players and keeping them happy. I am sure he has already lowballed Matthew's.

 

[thehoffs]

Very doubtful


Neither.

Matthews won't get anywhere near 16 mil per on his next contract, nor should he be even close to that number

Got news for you. Yes he will.

Why?

The players all know the salary cap will increase anywhere from 14-18m over the next 4 seasons.

The top elite players will be demanding the majority if not all the money. You won’t see bottom 6 guys getting a massive raise.

If anything we expect to see more of these multi year deals at salaries like $1.5 to $2.5 million for solid Bottom6 players who know that roll.

The extra salary will simply give teams a little more to split amongst their Top 4 to maybe Top6 players.

Adding 3m onto Matthews existing salary really isn’t a huge leap as you’re buying UFA years so yes it’s going to cost 15m.

McDavid could conceivably come in between 17-18m.

I love how everyone thinks the salaries are so high yet elite hockey players are so screwd compared to other sports.

Sidney Crosby and even Connor McDavid the sports ambassadors make less than an average no-name 3-4 starter in the MLB.

That’s how sad it is.

The bottom6 guys need to be accepting a max pay of 1.5-2.5 per and only if they are elite at what they do.

Teams really should be allowed to void deals where the player’s performance falls off so badly they are forced to play 4th line duties

Players like Lucic should have had their deals quashed. Guy couldn’t deliver on what he was paid to do the team should have the right to get out of the contract for way less than current buyouts.

And everyone has a couple of undesirable contracts.

I mean hell. The Calgary flames should be allowed to terminate Kadri if he’s not able to play above a bottom6 level. Even huberdeau same deal.

It needs to change so the elite guys can be paid.

What is your point? McDavid is several tiers above Matthews as a player, and deserves to be paid as such.

He is 1 single tier above. Just 1.

Matthews if healthy as proven he can play at 60g and 120point pace.

Fans think they should just get players without giving up much of a raise.

The problem you have and it’s a real one. Both Matthews and Marner were overpaid in their last contracts for no reason either.

 

[thehoffs]

Nah, he's actually not. Starting this season he's already passed the tail end of his prime.

Full post: A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

View attachment 727149

Wouldn't be surprised if he has quite a few good years left but doubt he scores 60 again. Maybe expect him to average 40-45G for another few years, something like that seems reasonable. Thinking he is just entering his prime when he is turning 26 just before the season starts (ie expecting many more 50-60G seasons) is not

Most players FYI play for fewer than 5 seasons and the majority aren’t full time in the NHL until age 21/22.

Your best playing years are typically 24-32 range and many are bucking this trend.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

HF is a bunch of Leafs haters praying he leaves. Once he signs His extension all the trolls go into hiding.

Says the guy who keeps on saying how McDavid will leave the Oilers to sign with the Leafs.

Funny how if it applies to your team. It’s a bunch of haters.

Got news for you. Yes he will.

Why?

The players all know the salary cap will increase anywhere from 14-18m over the next 4 seasons.

The top elite players will be demanding the majority if not all the money. You won’t see bottom 6 guys getting a massive raise.

If anything we expect to see more of these multi year deals at salaries like $1.5 to $2.5 million for solid Bottom6 players who know that roll.

The extra salary will simply give teams a little more to split amongst their Top 4 to maybe Top6 players.

Adding 3m onto Matthews existing salary really isn’t a huge leap as you’re buying UFA years so yes it’s going to cost 15m.

McDavid could conceivably come in between 17-18m.

I love how everyone thinks the salaries are so high yet elite hockey players are so screwd compared to other sports.

Sidney Crosby and even Connor McDavid the sports ambassadors make less than an average no-name 3-4 starter in the MLB.

That’s how sad it is.

The bottom6 guys need to be accepting a max pay of 1.5-2.5 per and only if they are elite at what they do.

Teams really should be allowed to void deals where the player’s performance falls off so badly they are forced to play 4th line duties

Players like Lucic should have had their deals quashed. Guy couldn’t deliver on what he was paid to do the team should have the right to get out of the contract for way less than current buyouts.

And everyone has a couple of undesirable contracts.

I mean hell. The Calgary flames should be allowed to terminate Kadri if he’s not able to play above a bottom6 level. Even huberdeau same deal.

It needs to change so the elite guys can be paid.


He is 1 single tier above. Just 1.

Matthews if healthy as proven he can play at 60g and 120point pace.

Fans think they should just get players without giving up much of a raise.

The problem you have and it’s a real one. Both Matthews and Marner were overpaid in their last contracts for no reason either.

Ah good ol what ifs.

 

[PainForShane]

Most players FYI play for fewer than 5 seasons and the majority aren’t full time in the NHL until age 21/22.

Your best playing years are typically 24-32 range and many are bucking this trend.

Ahhh.... no. You can read the analysis if you want (to see how they decided to include ppl and what they're actually measuring). Or you can just look at the graph. Or not

 

[Karl Eriksson]

So if they get him for less. Does that mean Matthews is a team first player? Or tre is a great gm?

They won’t get him for less. Everyone knows he’s about the name on the back of the jersey not the logo on the front.

 

[Skolman]

Got news for you. Yes he will.

Why?

The players all know the salary cap will increase anywhere from 14-18m over the next 4 seasons.

The top elite players will be demanding the majority if not all the money. You won’t see bottom 6 guys getting a massive raise.

If anything we expect to see more of these multi year deals at salaries like $1.5 to $2.5 million for solid Bottom6 players who know that roll.

The extra salary will simply give teams a little more to split amongst their Top 4 to maybe Top6 players.

Adding 3m onto Matthews existing salary really isn’t a huge leap as you’re buying UFA years so yes it’s going to cost 15m.

McDavid could conceivably come in between 17-18m.

I love how everyone thinks the salaries are so high yet elite hockey players are so screwd compared to other sports.

Sidney Crosby and even Connor McDavid the sports ambassadors make less than an average no-name 3-4 starter in the MLB.

That’s how sad it is.

The bottom6 guys need to be accepting a max pay of 1.5-2.5 per and only if they are elite at what they do.

Teams really should be allowed to void deals where the player’s performance falls off so badly they are forced to play 4th line duties

Players like Lucic should have had their deals quashed. Guy couldn’t deliver on what he was paid to do the team should have the right to get out of the contract for way less than current buyouts.

And everyone has a couple of undesirable contracts.

I mean hell. The Calgary flames should be allowed to terminate Kadri if he’s not able to play above a bottom6 level. Even huberdeau same deal.

It needs to change so the elite guys can be paid.


He is 1 single tier above. Just 1.

Matthews if healthy as proven he can play at 60g and 120point pace.

Fans think they should just get players without giving up much of a raise.

The problem you have and it’s a real one. Both Matthews and Marner were overpaid in their last contracts for no reason either.

If Matthews signs for 15+ mil per, that's a terrible deal for the Leafs.

The "pace" argument is so dumb. His career high is 106 points, his 2nd best season was 85 points. He's surpassed 50 goals once in his career.

The fact that you categorize him as an 120 point player is laughable.

I also don't think it's wise to lock him in as a 60 goal scorer, sure he has hit 60 once but 47 goals is his 2nd best season.

The fact that he apparently can't stay healthy, proves my point even more so.

 

[PajamaBoy]

16 m for a non top 5 player damn.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

12M aav max or bad contract

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Nah, he's actually not. Starting this season he's already passed the tail end of his prime.

Full post: A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

View attachment 727149

Wouldn't be surprised if he has quite a few good years left but doubt he scores 60 again. Maybe expect him to average 40-45G for another few years, something like that seems reasonable. Thinking he is just entering his prime when he is turning 26 just before the season starts (ie expecting many more 50-60G seasons) is not

This is quite the proclomation…

So guys like McDrai McKinnon who are older are ‘past their primes’…?

 

[PainForShane]

This is quite the proclomation…

So guys like McDrai McKinnon who are older are ‘past their primes’…?

On average? Yes. At least according to actual data.

Obviously everyone has different individual aging curves and there obviously exceptions to everything (McJesus' monster season at 26, Tage, Pavs etc etc). So many exceptions.

And maybe McDrai / MacK and even Matthews will be exceptions too. But they would be exceptions that's the point.

So yeah, according to actual data, production tends to start dipping after avg age of 25, so we should expect Matthews' to dip as well since he'll turn 26 before the season. Maybe it won't (who really knows), but imo that's what the expectation should be. So, like I said in previous post, to me 40-45g for another few years seems very reasonable, but perennially scoring 50 or 60 (or even 60+) in the near or medium future is not a realistic expectation, at least to this neutral fan

 

[Legion34]

They won’t get him for less. Everyone knows he’s about the name on the back of the jersey not the logo on the front.

Ok….. that’s your bet. If you are wrong then will you change your opinions?

 

[Breakers]

It is a new contract route that will be examined by other agents and players

Matthews
Entry level -> 5 year contract (1 year of UFA buyout) -> 4 year short term max earning (rumored) -> 8 year retirement finale

Most Popular
Entry level -> 8 year -> 8 year

My favorite
Entry level -> 3 year Bridge extension -> 8 year

 

[Reality Czech]

On average? Yes. At least according to actual data.

Obviously everyone has different individual aging curves and there obviously exceptions to everything (McJesus' monster season at 26, Tage, Pavs etc etc). So many exceptions.

And maybe McDrai / MacK and even Matthews will be exceptions too. But they would be exceptions that's the point.

So yeah, according to actual data, production tends to start dipping after avg age of 25, so we should expect Matthews' to dip as well since he'll turn 26 before the season. Maybe it doesn't (who really knows), but imo that's what the expectation should be. So, like I said in previous post, to me 40-45g for another few years seems very reasonable, but perennially scoring 50 or 60 (or even 60+) in the near or medium future does not, at least to this neutral fan

Hockey isn't only about production. I bet a lot of guys become better hockey players as they get older even as their skills erode. Guys like Kopitar, Bergeron, O'Reilly kept getting better, or at least didn't get worse, into their 30s.

 

[dirtydanglez]

doesnt really matter what the leafs sign him for. toronto is in the final year of their window. after that matthews marner and nylander will eat too much cap for the leafs to put together a top tier team. sure they can still win a cup outside their best window like washington did but it's all downhill after this season. thanks dubas.

 

[PainForShane]

Hockey isn't only about production. I bet a lot of guys become better hockey players as they get older even as their skills erode. Guys like Kopitar, Bergeron, O'Reilly kept getting better, or at least didn't get worse, into their 30s.

Yeah that's fair. But notice in my entire argument the only thing I am mentioning is production (well, the chart / analysis is WAR but I'm isolating the production part because that's the main driver anyway).

Anyway, fully agree with your takes on Bergeron, Kopi and O'Reilly (there are others). But to continue w this idea, I think ppl will agree that most of Matthews' salary is coming from his expected future goal scoring -- put a different way, plenty of world class two way centers / forwards aren't making 11+ mil a year. Funny enough Kopi came close but he's the only one I can think of rn.

EDIT: Other than Jonathan Toews (ouch). Different conversation tho

 

[Reality Czech]

Yeah that's fair. But notice in my entire argument the only thing I am mentioning is production (well, the chart / analysis is WAR but I'm isolating the production part because that's the main driver anyway).

Anyway, fully agree with your takes on Bergeron, Kopi and O'Reilly (there are others). But to continue w this idea, I think ppl will agree that most of Matthews' salary is coming from his expected future goal scoring -- put a different way, plenty of world class two way centers / forwards aren't making 11+ mil a year. Funny enough Kopi came close but he's the only one I can think of rn.

EDIT: Other than Jonathan Toews (ouch). Different conversation tho

Yeah, I didn't mean to jump into the debate that was going on. Just making the observation that while production may go down, one would hope these guys develop into more complete players and get better at all the little things that come with experience. But you're definitely right that goal scoring will get you bigger checks than playing well in the other two zones.

 

[Leafs1993]

If Matthews signs for 15+ mil per, that's a terrible deal for the Leafs.

The "pace" argument is so dumb. His career high is 106 points, his 2nd best season was 85 points. He's surpassed 50 goals once in his career.

The fact that you categorize him as an 120 point player is laughable.

I also don't think it's wise to lock him in as a 60 goal scorer, sure he has hit 60 once but 47 goals is his 2nd best season.

The fact that he apparently can't stay healthy, proves my point even more so.

Yeah, let's just pretend that he wasn't going to pass 50 goals in both of the covid shortened seasons. Never change HF

 

[thehoffs]

If Matthews signs for 15+ mil per, that's a terrible deal for the Leafs.

The "pace" argument is so dumb. His career high is 106 points, his 2nd best season was 85 points. He's surpassed 50 goals once in his career.

The fact that you categorize him as an 120 point player is laughable.

I also don't think it's wise to lock him in as a 60 goal scorer, sure he has hit 60 once but 47 goals is his 2nd best season.

The fact that he apparently can't stay healthy, proves my point even more so.

No it’s not dumb. 106 works out to a 119 full season amount.

He was also scoring at a 67 goal clip as well.

He is also one of very very few players to score 50 goals in 50 games.

So yes he is worth $15 if not $16.

An elite player like Matthews is not taking a basic 10% pay raise to 13M as that would be the exact equivalent of what kind of raise he would expect on a minimum raise from a qualifying offer.

To other teams especially Chicago Matthews right now at 16.00m paired with Bedard who will make rookie salary for 3 years is definitely worth it.

That 16m has them giving up absolutely no assets in exchange for a top 5 offensive talent.

As it is Toronto must give up one of Matthews or Nylander. I’d move Nylander all day as I’d never give Nylander a bigger payday than Tkachuk.

Toronto is screwd though. Previous GM overpaid them initially now they want more.

Toronto then hired the worlds cheapest GM who thinks he’s smarter than every player and their agent.

News Flash Maple Leafs still need to solidify goaltending and have aging D men that are past their prime.

I really think the Maple Leafs should have been targeting the Coyotes.

Some like Crouse and Vejmelka for Nylander and Murray.

It would have allowed the maple leafs to get out from under the salary cap hell they are in. They would have solidified their goaltending while adding a solid power forward.

All Toronto cares about though is trying to get more back than Nylander is worth.

On any other team you won’t see Nylander come close to sniffing 40 goals.

You take the high end talent and play drivers away and magically he’s a 25g 70-75pt Top6.

It’s a complimentary piece on any team.

You don’t pay a complimentary piece 10m. And if. Nylander wants 10m+ in what world does Matthews take $12 to 12.5.

Matthews at a basement bargain will be $14.25.

 

[TOGuy14]

3 years @ $13m/AAV
or
5 years @ $14m/AAV

IDK why he would get either of those contracts when MacK just signed for 12.6x8 and has a cup on the resume.

If he wants 13M the term is 8 years otherwise he is looking lower AAV IMO, 12.7x5

 

[dirtydanglez]

IDK why he would get either of those contracts when MacK just signed for 12.6x8 and has a cup on the resume.

If he wants 13M the term is 8 years otherwise he is looking lower AAV IMO, 12.7x5

mack said he would take less. no indication that matthews will do the same.