Dreger: "Auston Matthews 100% is not going anywhere."

[LaCarriere]

He shouldn't gamble on being healthy enough for a fourth contract

Then he should sign for a long term deal, and have money guaranteed for something like 13M+ / 8 years into his mid 30s. By looking for a short term deal around 3-5 years I'm guessing he thinks health won't be an issue.

I'm not sure why any team should reward a player for not committing long term (by giving them short term/high AAV), and giving them the opportunity to go elsewhere in possibly a handful of years. Apparently he's looking for 5 years max, but possibly/preferably 3-4. But matthews has all the leverage now, so he'll probably just get what he wants, especially if the leafs go to the second round again and a deal isn't done by then.

It looks like matthews is not only looking to maximize his opportunity for one more big contract, but trying to have his deal end in line with what is most likely the end of the window for this core group.

 

[Coastal Kev]

He was on TSN Overdrive and while talking about Nylander he also said that Auston Matthews 100% not going anywhere.

He said that while nobody has officially confirmed the term what he has been able to gather points to a 5 year deal.

I heard he's coming to the Penguins in FA.

 

[MardyBum]

This coming season, 2023-24, is the last year of his current deal. It cannot be replaced by a new deal. Any new deal has to start in 24-25.

I know, I think he'll re-sign for 3 years, give the Leafs 4 years total, allow the cap to go up a bunch before he gets his last big contract.

 

[The90]

@Rob Brown, see this is another one of the group that usually singles me out.
He's lashing out now because they know they were wrong as well.
It's all good, let it out, not good to bottle up the pain or disappointment of your opinions about your team and players.

Create a thread if you want to further discuss Panthers and Leafs.

I'm still thinking 5 yrs X $13.34 million for AM34

I’m not lashing out at all. Nothing I said is wrong. Will just take another year to come to fruition. Just like montreal everyone and their dog knew the pony show would end

 

[AZviaNJ]

5 year 60 million. I think that's the number

Hope leafs wouldn't go dumber than that

3 years @ $13m/AAV
or
5 years @ $14m/AAV

 

[Frank Drebin]

I think anything more than MacKinnon is a tough sell.

 

[RC51]

he already gets 11.5per. 5 years at 15mil minimum. he is starting his PRIME. This is exactly when he gets his best prime contract of his career. or 8 years front loaded, first 5 at 16mil last 3 at 13mil.

 

[BM14]

I hope he stays on the Leafs, he helps them choke in the playoffs. This is better for everyone.

Maybe if he leaves, he can follow the Eichel blueprint and win.

 

[thehoffs]

Matthews doesn’t per se want to leave. But Maple Leaf fans needs to open their god damn eyes.

You think Treliving is going to come to Toronto and just change his mannerisms?

No he won’t.

He will try to pinch Matthews same he did to Lindholm Hanifin Tkachuk and Gaudreau. Guy was so proud of it yet it’s cost Calgary all 4 players.

13.5 won’t do it.

Tavares was handed 15.25m In year 1 with a way lower salary cap.

I’d fully expect Matthews to tell Treliving the salary cap is going up by 14-18m over the duration of the contract and it’s only fair his contract be pro-rated for the same increase.

As such I fully expect year 1 to be in the 16-18m range with year 7 and 8 maybe going down to 13-14m with around 15 to 15.5m being your AAV.

And be honest he’s worth the 15.5 as he brings more than that value wise.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Matthews doesn’t per se want to leave. But Maple Leaf fans needs to open their god damn eyes.

You think Treliving is going to come to Toronto and just change his mannerisms?

No he won’t.

He will try to pinch Matthews same he did to Lindholm Hanifin Tkachuk and Gaudreau. Guy was so proud of it yet it’s cost Calgary all 4 players.

13.5 won’t do it.

Tavares was handed 15.25m In year 1 with a way lower salary cap.

I’d fully expect Matthews to tell Treliving the salary cap is going up by 14-18m over the duration of the contract and it’s only fair his contract be pro-rated for the same increase.

As such I fully expect year 1 to be in the 16-18m range with year 7 and 8 maybe going down to 13-14m with around 15 to 15.5m being your AAV.

And be honest he’s worth the 15.5 as he brings more than that value wise.

So 15.5 for Matthews.
What ya got for Marner?

 

[Skolman]

“The season he just had?”

He scored 40 and had 85 points, second most point total of his career, playing 74 games.

JFC

Yes?

You're willing to give a guy a blank cheque that only put up 85 points this past season?

Your post isn't the "gotcha" you probably thought it was.

 

[thehoffs]

So 15.5 for Matthews.
What ya got for Marner?

Marner will top out in the 12.5-13.00 range.

Marner is actually the player they should be trying to unload.

Problem is both Nylander and Marner are going to be very very over rated and are going to demand more than they are worth.

Matthew Tkachuk took a deal worth way less than he was worth. The problem is someone like Treliving is going to use that exact contract as a reason why someone like Marner shouldn’t get a single dime more.

Tkachuk at 9.5 is the better value than Marner at 10.5 let alone a Marner at 12-13+.

People talking about Nylander Wanting Tkachuk money is just disgusting.

Same thing with Lindholm, debrincat etc.

How do these kids think they should get more than Tkachuk while being complimentary pieces.

To me Marner and Matthews are worth the 12m+ as they are leaders and drive the play.

Guys like Nylander Debrincat Lindholm etc etc etc should always max out in the 8.5-9.5 range problem is GMs will overpay them and they know it.

I mean shit how do the flames pay 9.5 for Lindholm if not 10.0+ when Tkachuk is sitting at 9.5 and better players like Stutzle are on lesser deals.

People won’t realize how bad Treliving is until they lose the elite players and they are replaced with 2-3 lesser pieces.

 

[thehoffs]

Yes?

You're willing to give a guy a blank cheque that only put up 85 points this past season?

Your post isn't the "gotcha" you probably thought it was.

Yep and Chicago amongst others would also give him the same 15m salary.

 

[mkatcherin00]

He is used to being crazy overpaid. Why would he go anywhere lol. He's all about the dollar, not about a cup

Absolutely pathetic if he wants more than Mackinnon and mcdavid.

This guy trends down in the playoffs

 

[34]

Every reporter reporting on Matthews: “he’s going nowhere!”.

Everyone on Reddit and HF: “but where is he going!?”.

HF is a bunch of Leafs haters praying he leaves. Once he signs His extension all the trolls go into hiding.

 

[Video Nasty]

Either way, he’s peaked.

 

[thehoffs]

He is used to being crazy overpaid. Why would he go anywhere lol. He's all about the dollar, not about a cup

Absolutely pathetic if he wants more than Mackinnon and mcdavid.

This guy trends down in the playoffs

You think McDavid is taking less than 16-18m in his next deal? I find it hard to believe he’d take 12-14 to be honest.

 

[Brew]

HF is a bunch of Leafs haters praying he leaves. Once he signs His extension all the trolls go into hiding.

I wish. Then it becomes: “he’s not committed to Toronto, he only signed ‘x’ years!”.

 

[BostonBob]

HF is a bunch of Leafs haters praying he leaves. Once he signs His extension all the trolls go into hiding.

What a load of crap but still exactly what we should expect....

 

[PainForShane]

he already gets 11.5per. 5 years at 15mil minimum. he is starting his PRIME. This is exactly when he gets his best prime contract of his career. or 8 years front loaded, first 5 at 16mil last 3 at 13mil.

Nah, he's actually not. Starting this season he's already passed the tail end of his prime.

Full post: A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

Wouldn't be surprised if he has quite a few good years left but doubt he scores 60 again. Maybe expect him to average 40-45G for another few years, something like that seems reasonable. Thinking he is just entering his prime when he is turning 26 just before the season starts (ie expecting many more 50-60G seasons) is not

 

[Schemp]

Nah, he's actually not. Starting this season he's already passed the tail end of his prime.

Full post: A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

View attachment 727149

Wouldn't be surprised if he has quite a few good years left but doubt he scores 60 again. Maybe expect him to average 40-45G for another few years, something like that seems reasonable. Thinking he is just entering his prime when he is turning 26 just before the season starts (ie expecting many more 50-60G seasons) is not

...well unless he has better linesmates like Keller and Schmaltz!

 

[Legion34]

Marner will top out in the 12.5-13.00 range.

Marner is actually the player they should be trying to unload.

Problem is both Nylander and Marner are going to be very very over rated and are going to demand more than they are worth.

Matthew Tkachuk took a deal worth way less than he was worth. The problem is someone like Treliving is going to use that exact contract as a reason why someone like Marner shouldn’t get a single dime more.

Tkachuk at 9.5 is the better value than Marner at 10.5 let alone a Marner at 12-13+.

People talking about Nylander Wanting Tkachuk money is just disgusting.

Same thing with Lindholm, debrincat etc.

How do these kids think they should get more than Tkachuk while being complimentary pieces.

To me Marner and Matthews are worth the 12m+ as they are leaders and drive the play.

Guys like Nylander Debrincat Lindholm etc etc etc should always max out in the 8.5-9.5 range problem is GMs will overpay them and they know it.

I mean shit how do the flames pay 9.5 for Lindholm if not 10.0+ when Tkachuk is sitting at 9.5 and better players like Stutzle are on lesser deals.

People won’t realize how bad Treliving is until they lose the elite players and they are replaced with 2-3 lesser pieces.

Tkachuk took tax free money in Florida. He paid huberdeau more than tkachuk so I’m not sure why he wouldn’t pay marner mlore.



I also don’t understand why you keep bringing up a hypothetical ottawa trade when tkachuk made it well known he didn’t want to play in Canada and His list was publicized.

 

[BLONG7]

I think anything more than MacKinnon is a tough sell.

Or McDavid............................how on earth does the agent sell AM getting more money than either of those two guys??

 

[Zero Requiem]

You think McDavid is taking less than 16-18m in his next deal? I find it hard to believe he’d take 12-14 to be honest.

What is your point? McDavid is several tiers above Matthews as a player, and deserves to be paid as such.

 

[Fatass]

Tkachuk took tax free money in Florida. He paid huberdeau more than tkachuk so I’m not sure why he wouldn’t pay marner mlore.



I also don’t understand why you keep bringing up a hypothetical ottawa trade when tkachuk made it well known he didn’t want to play in Canada and His list was publicized.

Players say things, or have their representatives say things, to help them get leverage in contracts. Look at how PLD just used the Habs to get traded to LA and get paid big. Horvat did the same (although less publicly) to get a big contract with the Islanders. Matthews is now a coming UFA (July 2024) with a full no move clause. The Leafs either meet all his demands or he leaves like Johnny Hockey did for no return other than freed up cap.