Dreger: "Auston Matthews 100% is not going anywhere."

[thehoffs]

God I hope that’s true, it’d be so damned funny. “Win a cup? Sure, whatever, but what I really wanna do is get personal accolades and get paiddd.”

Leafs have a toxic locker room when it comes to salaries it seems.

Getting paid is everything.

Understand the “Bryan Berard Effect” is something every single player is preached to by their agents.

Bryan Berard was fortunate to get $6.5m from his athletic insurance and even then it was a fight as he had to somehow prove the accident to his eye cost him $6.5m in salary.

You just never know what can happen to that salary. all it takes is a single domestic incident or even an accusation saying you’re racist.

Players aren’t dumb. Most important by list.

1. Maximum annual salary
2. Getting played 82 games a year
3. Happy family life.
4. Competitive team.

 

[Leafs1993]

At some point a players actual production becomes more important than pace. Which would you prefer? a player that scores 30 goals every year but paces for 60 or a player that actually scores 45 every year?

Again this isn't an issue of "pace" or injury that happened. The guy had 47 goals in 70 games and the season was cut short for covid. In 50 games he had 41 (56 game season.) Followed by a 60 goal season. Context is important, do you think he wouldn't have hit 50 (maybe even 60) if there wasn't a global pandemic?

Like I already said, saying Matthew's isn't a 50-60 goal scorer is flat out wrong. Wanna look at actual production? He leads the league in goals since he came into the league as a rookie. There is a large sample size to show he is one of the best goal scorers in the league. If Matthews is not a 50-60 goal scorer I don't know who is...

 

[dirtydanglez]

Mack said he would take less. Then literally took the most in the league.

Kind of a weird thing to say

he's the first of the bunch to do his 3rd contract. matthews, mcdavid and draisaitl are probably gonna make it look good.

 

[Legion34]

he's the first of the bunch to do his 3rd contract. matthews, mcdavid and draisaitl are probably gonna make it look good.

You can’t take less if you literally take the most in the….. maybe in league history

 

[dirtydanglez]

You can’t take less if you literally take the most in the….. maybe in league history

sure you can. you're about to find out.

 

[Pukboy5kroner]

8x$13M = $104M
7x$15M = $105M

Tax probably doesn't matter, since Matthews probably has his primary residence in Arizona.

Probably his biggest endorsements come from league-level major superstar stuff as opposed to local ads. I doubt there is going to be much difference in that wherever he goes. The little local stuff isn't enough to shift anything.

So in the end, it should just come down to... where does he WANT to play?

If I was him, I'd just play out my contract next season and let the offers roll in on July 1st, 2024 (with a shiny new $90M+ Cap). Including Toronto's offer. But why not collect all the options and see?

Primary residence doesn't apply with income taxes. Players generally get taxed in the states/provinces they play on a game-by-game basis.

 

[Kryten]

Income tax Just Federal alone is 37% in Canada.

The United States has more tiers but 37% is the top tier.

When you add in state/provincial and in some US cities you can even add in local municipal taxes.

Agent fees can range from 3% on the exceptionally low end to as much as 15% in a players earnings and enforsement deals it can range from 10% to as much as 30%.

All players also have to pay significant premiums for insurance on their salaries. Chubb and Lloyds of London are two of the more common insurance groups. Athletes even playing NCAA and Junior CHL should have insurance.

Like I said by the time it’s all together players pay 50-60% all in. In Canada we do have a retirement referral similar to RRSPs thet players can take advantage of but it also has a maximum based upon your income.

Hec escrow in the NHL has averaged 3-6% per year.

NHLPA dues I think are between $28-33 per DAY per player which is actually crazy for a union support.

It’s also crazy important as players reach the maximum retirement pay of around $250,000 after 10 years or 820 games of service. I think there is a minimum of approx 250 or 260 games.

This is why a player getting in just 4 years as a Bottom 6 guy is incredibly important as most guys won’t earn more than $2-4 million in their career.

Cody Franson is my cousin and made approx $18,000,000 before being rejected by the NHL further.

You Google his name and it says he’s worth $18,000,000.

Yet I know as he’s my cousin it’s no where close to what the guy has in the bank.

On top of all the statutory fees you get every single family member asking you for money or you’re expected to pay for family trips/gatherings.

I know my cousin has reasonable amounts of money left from his playing days.

He’s been bouncing around the AHL and KHL now for years watching his bank account balance decrease every year.

Most players do get a nice home out of it. Ideally a family with education and retirement all paid for so it’s not all bad.

But just know most players pay over 50% every year.

Having to move around constantly for your profession would suck but the returns from interest on that bank account (50k per year for every million saved) and getting a nice pension that can be accessed at 45 years old is not going to turn a player like Franson from a riches to rags story without terrible life choices.

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

Leafs ducked up not trading him when they had the chance.

 

[Lt Dan]

Leafs ducked up not trading him when they had the chance.

 

[thehoffs]

Im curious why some people actually believe it will be $16 million AAV.

We haven’t even reached $13 benchmark yet
And suddenly we are jumping:
$14 million AAV
$15 million AAV
Right up $16 million?

Just skipping right over three major levels.

I can tell you why.

When Draisatl signed at $8.5m everyone was like Jesus they are off their rockers. Then 1-2 seasons later his deal was an absolute steal.

The thing is when we are looking at whet they are worth we aren’t looking at what they did and what they got paid when the salary cap was at $76-83m.

We are going to be considering what will Matthews provide in year 1-4 of his deal when the salary cap will be at a minimum at $92m when it kicks in.

If you take 5% escalator and do an 8 year contract by the 8th year we are looking at a 133m salary cap.

The 4th year it will be 106m.

The maple leafs, oilers, etc players with the elite pay checks it’s reasonable to assume at least 1/3 of not 40-60% of the increase will go right to your first line players or top 2d.

I don’t think we will see 2nd liners getting paid $10m+

The prob is you got teams like the flsmes
Who are being forced to either pay Lindholm 10 to 10.5 to keep him.

Players like Lindholm are an elite 2C or a bottom tier 1C . You just won’t be winning a cup with Lindholm as your #1 and teams should realize this and trade them for lottery tickets aka first round picks where possible.

That’s the problem with the NHL.

We are seeing some teams do it right.

Buffalo locking up Tage Thompson to 7.25 and Ottawa doing Stutzle to 8.25. Again these may not be superstar value players so getting them in the 7-9m range where you spend less than 30m on your top line is what must happen.

Teams like Edmonton, Toronto, Chicago and any team that is going to push generational players they will have a 1st line featuring 2 guys making $24-26m and then they seek to find a 3rd player at a discount to complete the line.

Edmontons case it’s Evander Kane or Zachary Hyman.

Toronto didn’t catch the memo and handed out 10+ to 3 players one of which in Tavares is obviously done. Either contract expires or they’d paid to move it.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Leafs ducked up not trading him when they had the chance.

Why? They are planning to re-sign him. One so called insider thinks this is a 100% certainly while some posters think that he leaving for sure.

 

[Breakers]

I can tell you why.

When Draisatl signed at $8.5m everyone was like Jesus they are off their rockers. Then 1-2 seasons later his deal was an absolute steal.

The thing is when we are looking at whet they are worth we aren’t looking at what they did and what they got paid when the salary cap was at $76-83m.

We are going to be considering what will Matthews provide in year 1-4 of his deal when the salary cap will be at a minimum at $92m when it kicks in.

If you take 5% escalator and do an 8 year contract by the 8th year we are looking at a 133m salary cap.

The 4th year it will be 106m.

The maple leafs, oilers, etc players with the elite pay checks it’s reasonable to assume at least 1/3 of not 40-60% of the increase will go right to your first line players or top 2d.

I don’t think we will see 2nd liners getting paid $10m+

The prob is you got teams like the flsmes
Who are being forced to either pay Lindholm 10 to 10.5 to keep him.

Players like Lindholm are an elite 2C or a bottom tier 1C . You just won’t be winning a cup with Lindholm as your #1 and teams should realize this and trade them for lottery tickets aka first round picks where possible.

That’s the problem with the NHL.

We are seeing some teams do it right.

Buffalo locking up Tage Thompson to 7.25 and Ottawa doing Stutzle to 8.25. Again these may not be superstar value players so getting them in the 7-9m range where you spend less than 30m on your top line is what must happen.

Teams like Edmonton, Toronto, Chicago and any team that is going to push generational players they will have a 1st line featuring 2 guys making $24-26m and then they seek to find a 3rd player at a discount to complete the line.

Edmontons case it’s Evander Kane or Zachary Hyman.

Toronto didn’t catch the memo and handed out 10+ to 3 players one of which in Tavares is obviously done. Either contract expires or they’d paid to move it.

nothing you said here is relevant to $16 million a year

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

Why? They are planning to re-sign him. One so called insider thinks this is a 100% certainly while some posters think that he leaving for sure.

Because, He doesn't do what it take to win. REAL NHL players do shit it takes. He does not, he dissapears in the PLAYOFFS, when his skills don't take him into the next level, I hope im wrong and he can find that LION gear, but from what I see, he's all steroid Gazelle.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Because, He doesn't do what it take to win. REAL NHL players do shit it takes. He does not, he dissapears in the PLAYOFFS, when his skills don't take him into the next level, I hope im wrong and he can find that LION gear, but from what I see, he's all steroid Gazelle.

You are wrong he has 44 points in 50 games including 22 goals.

 

[mkatcherin00]

You think McDavid is taking less than 16-18m in his next deal? I find it hard to believe he’d take 12-14 to be honest.

I don't think he will take close to top dollar. He cares more about his legacy like a Crosby.

What a load of crap but still exactly what we should expect....

Toronto is a great place to play, but they screwd their cap structure and have guys who can't get it done. Not about hate. It's a bubble, like most Canadian markets. They have (IMO) selfish players who have literally regressed in the playoffs. That is a proven fact.

Personally, Matthews is a very good player, but I would never sign this guy to top dollar and term. Who knows how his hands work. He regressed last year. He also seems like a guy who cares more about other things than hockey, but that's just my opinion (which means nothing)

 

[mkatcherin00]

Sorry the NHL even states it he scored 50 goals in a 50 game segment in the regular season.

What’s funny.

Maple Leafs fans are like our players are the best!!!

Time to re-sign them and buy UFA years and those same fans are saying…

Matthews is Ok but really he doesn’t deserve a 20% raise which by the way is incredibly common amount to go from RFA to UFA.

You need to remember here. The moment Matthews hits that UFA status he belongs to nobody and when you are buying UFA years you are literally buying an asset that is in theory free.

This is where drafting Top 3 and specifically 1OA picks has its negative downside.

You aren’t going to find many players quite frankly if any who actually care if they play their entire career with a single team.

End of the day dollars in their bank and their retirement is what matters.

Low end players just want to eeeek out a 3-5 year existence to try to collect on the NHLPA retirement plan.

You think a $2 million Salary is sweet even for a 3-4th liner.

It’s until you realize almost 60% or more of that number is paid out to taxes, recapture, retirement, agent fees, insurance to secure their income in case of horrific injury and then you tack on how impossible it is for even the 3-4th line guys to lead a normal life.

Seriously. We see McDavid in Vegas with his girlfriend and now Fiancé.

The moment every idiot realizes it’s McDavid they want pictures with him or her. They basically have a screwd social life.

It’s just cute how people think 2m and even 13m is a lot of money. When you piss away 6 million out of 10 million paid it hurts and hurts bad.

It’s why you should never push kids into professional sports unless it’s what they want.

Minor league is I’m even worse. Unt recent minor league baseball players were in poverty.


Enjoy Matthews at 15-16m or enjoy watch him Hoisting a cup with Chicago.

I’d personally love to see Edmonton ship out some combo of Nurse Kane and RNH to bring in Matthews as a UFA.

Could you even imagine a trio of Draisatl McD and Matthews on one solid line.

This all depends on a persons lifestyle. Yes, they should be paid a lot, like movie stars, but a person is a grade A idiot if they cannot convert this to generational wealth. Even lower tier guys. You are so stupid if you cannot make this type of money last for your kids and their kids.

 

[mkatcherin00]

Got news for you. Yes he will.

Why?

The players all know the salary cap will increase anywhere from 14-18m over the next 4 seasons.

The top elite players will be demanding the majority if not all the money. You won’t see bottom 6 guys getting a massive raise.

If anything we expect to see more of these multi year deals at salaries like $1.5 to $2.5 million for solid Bottom6 players who know that roll.

The extra salary will simply give teams a little more to split amongst their Top 4 to maybe Top6 players.

Adding 3m onto Matthews existing salary really isn’t a huge leap as you’re buying UFA years so yes it’s going to cost 15m.

McDavid could conceivably come in between 17-18m.

I love how everyone thinks the salaries are so high yet elite hockey players are so screwd compared to other sports.

Sidney Crosby and even Connor McDavid the sports ambassadors make less than an average no-name 3-4 starter in the MLB.

That’s how sad it is.

The bottom6 guys need to be accepting a max pay of 1.5-2.5 per and only if they are elite at what they do.

Teams really should be allowed to void deals where the player’s performance falls off so badly they are forced to play 4th line duties

Players like Lucic should have had their deals quashed. Guy couldn’t deliver on what he was paid to do the team should have the right to get out of the contract for way less than current buyouts.

And everyone has a couple of undesirable contracts.

I mean hell. The Calgary flames should be allowed to terminate Kadri if he’s not able to play above a bottom6 level. Even huberdeau same deal.

It needs to change so the elite guys can be paid.


He is 1 single tier above. Just 1.

Matthews if healthy as proven he can play at 60g and 120point pace.

Fans think they should just get players without giving up much of a raise.

The problem you have and it’s a real one. Both Matthews and Marner were overpaid in their last contracts for no reason either.

Who cares? Those leagues, like a movie lead person have a bigger pie. Other leagues have zero bearing. Maybe these guys should have tried other sports? We are talking about spoiled athletes here. Yes, they worked hard and should make the bag, but gimme a break.

 

[thehoffs]

This all depends on a persons lifestyle. Yes, they should be paid a lot, like movie stars, but a person is a grade A idiot if they cannot convert this to generational wealth. Even lower tier guys. You are so stupid if you cannot make this type of money last for your kids and their kids.

Tell me why that is now.

Most markets to buy a home in is going to cost around $1,000,000 off the bat.

Also consider majority of hockey players when they retire will do anything to get jobs in hockey management as they often as In 95% of the time lack education or skills for prime employment.

See guys running used car dealerships frequently sadly.

Sadly in this generation making 1-2 millions year for 4-6 years just won’t last many and quite often they draw early trom
Their retirement.

A good many of them end up bankrupt by age 50-55.

 

[thehoffs]

This all depends on a persons lifestyle. Yes, they should be paid a lot, like movie stars, but a person is a grade A idiot if they cannot convert this to generational wealth. Even lower tier guys. You are so stupid if you cannot make this type of money last for your kids and their kids.

And no really they shouldn’t be paid a lot.

They are paid to play a game. Skate shoot and pass a puck around.

Most of us would do this and love to do it for what we make at our current jobs let alone the money they make.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Getting paid is everything.

Understand the “Bryan Berard Effect” is something every single player is preached to by their agents.

Bryan Berard was fortunate to get $6.5m from his athletic insurance and even then it was a fight as he had to somehow prove the accident to his eye cost him $6.5m in salary.

You just never know what can happen to that salary. all it takes is a single domestic incident or even an accusation saying you’re racist.

Players aren’t dumb. Most important by list.

1. Maximum annual salary
2. Getting played 82 games a year
3. Happy family life.
4. Competitive team.

I’m with you on most of it, but that domestic incident or racist accusation stuff is way out there. You act like contracts are voided over baseless accusations, which a) doesn’t usually happen b) doesn’t void the contract.

And it’s not like Matthews hasn’t made more money than he or his family should be able to spend in a lifetime. At the end of the day getting as much as you can is the game, the billionaire owners are even more loaded so f*** it, but at the same time from a team/hockey perspective I don’t envy the culture the leafs seem to have in their locker room.

 

[mkatcherin00]

Tell me why that is now.

Most markets to buy a home in is going to cost around $1,000,000 off the bat.

Also consider majority of hockey players when they retire will do anything to get jobs in hockey management as they often as In 95% of the time lack education or skills for prime employment.

See guys running used car dealerships frequently sadly.

Sadly in this generation making 1-2 millions year for 4-6 years just won’t last many and quite often they draw early trom
Their retirement.

A good many of them end up bankrupt by age 50-55.

You are crazy. You can make a few hundred grand after tax and make a lot of money. Have good credit. Loans. You want 20% down on one property. You build equity and take a heloc. It's a risk, but not if you have a good market. You can invest close to 50 million and make up to 3k a day in income in interest. For bigger guys.

Screw these greedy players. Imo. They all live a great life

 

[mkatcherin00]

No it’s not dumb. 106 works out to a 119 full season amount.

He was also scoring at a 67 goal clip as well.

He is also one of very very few players to score 50 goals in 50 games.

So yes he is worth $15 if not $16.

An elite player like Matthews is not taking a basic 10% pay raise to 13M as that would be the exact equivalent of what kind of raise he would expect on a minimum raise from a qualifying offer.

To other teams especially Chicago Matthews right now at 16.00m paired with Bedard who will make rookie salary for 3 years is definitely worth it.

That 16m has them giving up absolutely no assets in exchange for a top 5 offensive talent.

As it is Toronto must give up one of Matthews or Nylander. I’d move Nylander all day as I’d never give Nylander a bigger payday than Tkachuk.

Toronto is screwd though. Previous GM overpaid them initially now they want more.

Toronto then hired the worlds cheapest GM who thinks he’s smarter than every player and their agent.

News Flash Maple Leafs still need to solidify goaltending and have aging D men that are past their prime.

I really think the Maple Leafs should have been targeting the Coyotes.

Some like Crouse and Vejmelka for Nylander and Murray.

It would have allowed the maple leafs to get out from under the salary cap hell they are in. They would have solidified their goaltending while adding a solid power forward.

All Toronto cares about though is trying to get more back than Nylander is worth.

On any other team you won’t see Nylander come close to sniffing 40 goals.

You take the high end talent and play drivers away and magically he’s a 25g 70-75pt Top6.

It’s a complimentary piece on any team.

You don’t pay a complimentary piece 10m. And if. Nylander wants 10m+ in what world does Matthews take $12 to 12.5.

Matthews at a basement bargain will be $14.25.

show his PPG in the reg season and what he does come crunch time. *crickets*

 

[AZviaNJ]

He’s not taking 12.6 or even less.

Matthews will specifically demand 30% of whatever the expected increase to the salary cap is for the next 8 years.

What people don’t get here. You are not paying the player solely based upon what he’s done for you.

You are 100% paying for what this player is going to provide you in the next 8 years.

Does a Stanley cup matter?

No it doesn’t.

What matters is how does the players individual stats, individual awards and even the players ability to positively impact his teammates convert to a dollwr Value.

Otherwise every 3/4th line grinder winning a cup would actually have value and they don’t.

Either way I expect year 1-3 to come in at $16-$18m with the number going down to 12-14m by the end of the contract at year 8.

You’re not getting him for 12.6 or likely even 13.1.

You can’t thank your past GMs to overpaying him when all he had was arbitration rights.

I never said he was getting $12.6….I said $13m for 3 years or $14m for 5. And I said he was getting more than Mac.

 

[Fatass]

I never said he was getting $12.6….I said $13m for 3 years or $14m for 5. And I said he was getting more than Mac.

What option do the Leafs have other than giving in to all of Matthews’ contract demands? He’s got a full no move and is a UFA July 1, 2024. He has all the leverage. The contract he gets might not be what he deserves (compared to other top players) but Treliving has to pay up or lose the player.
Imo Matthews next contract is 15+ and on a short term.

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

You are wrong he has 44 points in 50 games including 22 goals.

hmmmmmmmmmmm sorry, but its not all about offense. Next