Around the NHL - Episode XLI

[Boud]

Before Chayka foolishly threw away a ton of assets for Hall, a deal sending Matthews to ARZ for a big package of players, prospects and picks would have made a ton of sense. Something like Dvorak, Hayton, 1sts and maybe more. Could have then used the resulting cap-space to shore up the D by signing a guy like Pietrangelo.

Matthews or Pietrangelo, Dvorak, Hayton + way more assets? No brainer.

If Dubas has cojones he could still do something like that by trading Nylander and another guy or two to fit Pietrangelo in, but that ship may have sailed.

Trade a top goal scorer and one of the best players in the league who's 22 years old for Dvorak Hayton and 1rst would be extremely stupid.

Why in the world would Toronto do that and then overpay for a 30YO Pietrangelo on a 6-7 year deal.

That would be the equivalent of us drafting Byfield, wait until hes one of the best players in the NHL, and then trading him for picks and prospects to sign a 30 year old Dman.

There are many other ways for Toronto to add a Dman without getting rid of their best player.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Trade a top goal scorer and one of the best players in the league who's 22 years old for Dvorak Hayton and 1rst would be extremely stupid

Again, bad faith argument and uncharitable interpretation.

It's not Matthews for Dvorak, Hayton and a 1st. Under this hypothetical scenario it would be:

Matthews @ 11.5M for the next 5YRs (then he's a UFA that could walk)

or

Dvorak @ 4.5M for the next 6YRs (great contract for 6YRs, expires as a UFA)
Hayton @ 0.9M for the next 3YRs (potential #1/2 C on an ELC, worth gold to a cap strapped team)
Multiple 1sts (say 2021 and 2022)
+ more assets
+ 7M in cap space

I don't think the Leafs do it if they don't think that Pietrangelo wants to come home and would be interested in signing long-term in Toronto at a cost of zero assets. If that was the case if I'm Dubas I'm trading Matthews in an instant. Give me Pietrangelo, Dvorak, Hayton, multiple 1sts and additional assets over Matthews any day of the week.

 

[Micklebot]

Trade a top goal scorer and one of the best players in the league who's 22 years old for Dvorak Hayton and 1rst would be extremely stupid.

Why in the world would Toronto do that and then overpay for a 30YO Pietrangelo on a 6-7 year deal.

He said 1sts, as in multiple 1st round picks, and mentioned possibly more.

I don't see it as a great trade either, but in the hypothetical scenario where they do that instead of Hall, assuming they still end up in the same spot that's a top 10 pick, and another 1st next year, a former 5th OA, a good young roster player in Dvorak, and room to target a UFA (in this case Pietrangelo).

 

[Boud]

Again, bad faith argument and uncharitable interpretation.

It's not Matthews for Dvorak, Hayton and a 1st. Under this hypothetical scenario it would be:

Matthews @ 11.5M for the next 5YRs (then he's a UFA that could walk)

or

Dvorak @ 4.5M for the next 6YRs (great contract for 6YRs, expires as a UFA)
Hayton @ 0.9M for the next 3YRs (potential #1/2 C on an ELC, worth gold to a cap strapped team)
Multiple 1sts (say 2021 and 2022)
+ more assets
+ 7M in cap space

I don't think the Leafs do it if they don't think that Pietrangelo wants to come home and would be interested in signing long-term in Toronto at a cost of zero assets. If that was the case if I'm Dubas I'm trading Matthews in an instant. Give me Pietrangelo, Dvorak, Hayton, multiple 1sts and additional assets over Matthews any day of the week.

I wouldnt do it.

With Matthews in AZ chances are these picks are in the 20-30 range.

 

[Boud]

He said 1sts, as in multiple 1st round picks, and mentioned possibly more.

I don't see it as a great trade either, but in the hypothetical scenario where they do that instead of Hall, assuming they still end up in the same spot that's a top 10 pick, and another 1st next year, a former 5th OA, a good young roster player in Dvorak, and room to target a UFA (in this case Pietrangelo).

I don't see an incentive for a team like Toronto to make this trade. Matthews is not only one of the best young players in the league (these players do not get traded), but he's also a marketing tool in one of the biggest hockey markets.

That would turn out to be one hell of a steal by AZ.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I wouldnt do it.

With Matthews in AZ chances are these picks are in the 20-30 range.

Possibly, but the two 1sts would be secondary pieces. Adding Pietrangelo as a UFA and getting Hayton on a 3YR ELC at under 1M would the most valuable assets in the deal.

Also I'm a fan of Dvorak and his contract. Put him back together on a line with Marner like in London and maybe he breaks out into the 50-60P two-way C that I thought he'd become after his ridiculous production in junior.

 

[Boud]

Possibly, but the two 1sts would be secondary pieces. Adding Pietrangelo as a UFA and getting Hayton on a 3YR ELC at under 1M would the most valuable assets in the deal.

Also I'm a fan of Dvorak and his contract. Put him back together on a line with Marner like in London and maybe he breaks out into the 50-60P two-way C that I thought he'd become after his ridiculous production in junior.

None of these assets are bad. None of these assets have enough quality to land a player like Matthews. Again top 3 in goals in the NHL, 22 year old and what you get is Barret Hayton and Christian Dvorak and some picks in the bottom half of the first round?!

Put yourself in the Leafs shoes, if we had a player like Matthews we'd want a much higher quality piece than that. Hayton is stilla prospect, no clue what he'll become and Dvorak is still trying to find his game in the NHL to be a legitimate top 6 forward.

When you trade a player like Matthews you better be damn sure of what you're getting and that should be a sure fire no questions asked elite player or young proven player.

That still doesnt change the fact that Toronto trading their best player and creating a massive hole in their lineup to patch another one makes no sense.

 

[NyQuil]

When you trade a player like Matthews you better be damn sure of what you're getting and that should be a sure fire no questions asked elite player or young proven player.

Barring the fact that we are dealing with the Toronto market (where the scrutiny of a move like this would be off the charts), even in a vacuum, I would still agree with you.

Sometimes you can outsmart yourself.

 

[Micklebot]

I don't see an incentive for a team like Toronto to make this trade. Matthews is not only one of the best young players in the league (these players do not get traded), but he's also a marketing tool in one of the biggest hockey markets.

That would turn out to be one hell of a steal by AZ.

Yeah, I'd pass too, Matthews is the piece you keep if at all possible. Marner might be more palatable in a trade such as that, but still very risky and not something I'd do. Nylander is the obvious piece to move, but wouldn't get you that type of package.

 

[Boud]

Yeah, I'd pass too, Matthews is the piece you keep if at all possible. Marner might be more palatable in a trade such as that, but still very risky and not something I'd do. Nylander is the obvious piece to move, but wouldn't get you that type of package.

Agreed.

Honestly trading Nylander would work and I think the return could be interesting considering his production this season and his contract and age.

There's other places though where Toronto could cut some salary if thwy want to add a Dman. Kerfoot, Andersen, Kapanen and Johnsson for starters. And they have plenty of assets to deal if they'd want to get a Dman. They have picks and interesting prospects.

I'm pretty sure they would even consider trading Tavares before Matthews.

 

[Hale The Villain]

None of these assets are bad. None of these assets have enough quality to land a player like Matthews. Again top 3 in goals in the NHL, 22 year old and what you get is Barret Hayton and Christian Dvorak and some picks in the bottom half of the first round?!

Again, you forgot about Pietrangelo. The main purpose of the trade would be to open up the cap space to sign a top 5/top 10 D in the league, who also happens to be a RD and be about as perfect a partner for your their offensive LD Rielly as can be imagined.

If the Leafs couldn't count on bring Pietrangelo home to Toronto, and instead would have to settle for some lesser RD like Tanev or Hamonic in free agency, I don't think the trade is worth it, but look at their D with Pietrangelo:

Rielly - Pietrangelo
Muzzin - Dermott
Sandin - Holl
Marincin, Liljegren

They go from having arguably a bottom 10 D in the league to arguably a top 10 D.

Put yourself in the Leafs shoes, if we had a player like Matthews we'd want a much higher quality piece than that. Hayton is stilla prospect, no clue what he'll become and Dvorak is still trying to find his game in the NHL to be a legitimate top 6 forward.

When you trade a player like Matthews you better be damn sure of what you're getting and that should be a sure fire no questions asked elite player or young proven player.

If you think there are other teams with loads of cap space that would trade tons of young and cheap assets to Toronto to add Matthews, that's fine. They should do that trade then instead of the one I suggested. The main goal would be to open up the cap space to add a #1 D for free in free agency.

As a Sens fan I'd easily offer something better than the Yotes package to add Matthews, but I doubt they'd trade him to us.

That still doesnt change the fact that Toronto trading their best player and creating a massive hole in their lineup to patch another one makes no sense.

They wouldn't have a massive hole at C after trading Matthews. They already have a high-end #1 C in Tavares and Dvorak/Hayton would do well as the 2/3 guys.

 

[GCK]

He said 1sts, as in multiple 1st round picks, and mentioned possibly more.

I don't see it as a great trade either, but in the hypothetical scenario where they do that instead of Hall, assuming they still end up in the same spot that's a top 10 pick, and another 1st next year, a former 5th OA, a good young roster player in Dvorak, and room to target a UFA (in this case Pietrangelo).

Top 5 players, other than Gretzky don’t get traded unless they are pending UFA or demand a trade. There is literally no package that gets Matthews out of Toronto without giving up a a top 5 player. The case can be made Matthews is the second best player in the league and his contract isn’t bad at all.

 

[BondraTime]

Yeah trading Matthews doesn’t make much sense from the Leafs point of view. You don’t trade 22 year old guys like that.

Signing Tavares, as good as he is, screwed the Leafs and their flexibility. They knew they had 3 huge RFA signings and were loaded up front, but went out and signed what is a very expensive player they didn’t need whatsoever.

Not to mention he will be on the decline, very likely, from here on out.

 

[NyQuil]

They wouldn't have a massive hole at C after trading Matthews. They already have a high-end #1 C in Tavares and Dvorak/Hayton would do well as the 2/3 guys.

I thought that Pittsburgh had a pretty good approach towards maximizing the utility of two #1Cs by rotating the wingers out when they became too expensive.

You can't have a team anchored by Matthews and Tavares and then shell out $18M a season on two wingers.

If these guys are truly franchise level talents, they don't need Marner and Nylander to be effective.

 

[GCK]

Again, you forgot about Pietrangelo. The main purpose of the trade would be to open up the cap space to sign a top 5/top 10 D in the league, who also happens to be a RD and be about as perfect a partner for your their offensive LD Rielly as can be imagined.

If the Leafs couldn't count on bring Pietrangelo home to Toronto, and instead would have to settle for some lesser RD like Tanev or Hamonic in free agency, I don't think the trade is worth it, but look at their D with Pietrangelo:

Rielly - Pietrangelo
Muzzin - Dermott
Sandin - Holl
Marincin, Liljegren

They go from having arguably a bottom 10 D in the league to arguably a top 10 D.



If you think there are other teams with loads of cap space that would trade tons of young and cheap assets to Toronto to add Matthews, that's fine. They should do that trade then instead of the one I suggested. The main goal would be to open up the cap space to add a #1 D for free in free agency.

As a Sens fan I'd easily offer something better than the Yotes package to add Matthews, but I doubt they'd trade him to us.



They wouldn't have a massive hole at C after trading Matthews. They already have a high-end #1 C in Tavares and Dvorak/Hayton would do well as the 2/3 guys.

In your scenario you are freeing up about 7M to sign Pietrangelo. While that is way too low IMO, there are other ways to do it.

Move Nylander for 2 1sts and sign AP, keeping a 22yo elite player. Hell with the way Nylanders contract works the Sens could send Logan Brown and the Isles pick for Nylander.

I bolded the second part just because of Tavares. He really looked to be declining this past season. It could be a blip but I’d be sweating bullets if I was Kyle Dumbass.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

I've been looking at the cap space next year and things are looking GRIM. I knew there would be problems but we almost need to have each fan-base do an estimate on projected cap space at 81.5M with RFAs re-signed because ti is getting pretty crazy. I'm having a hard time even finding room for the Free Agents, much less the all the trades fans seem to think will happen to create room.

Anaheim will likely need to use Kesler's IR just to complete their roster.
Arizona has 1.5M in room but needs to sign like...4 more forwards (one named Taylor Hall) and a defender to field a roster.
St. Louis has 2M in room and still needs to re-sign Pietrangelo + Dunn

I'm going through the list of 30 teams and like...15-18 of them are in no place to be signing anyone and 1/2 the fanbases seem to think Ottawa/Buffalo/NJD will just on these contracts in exchange for picks/players. I don't think they realize there is no room/appetite on the 5-6 teams who have cap space to for all the players that will need to get moved this year.

I get people think Melnyk is cheap, but I don't think they realize what that means. Melnyk is so cheap he won't buy picks. So that means a player with a 3-4M salary that you attach to a 1st rounder won't work. He just won't pay money for draft picks. Same goes for the cap floor. Everyone keeps saying Ottawa takes on salary to reach the floor. That's not a problem this season. We're at 42M and we still have 18-20M in RFAs and roster holes to fill. We're going to break 60M no problem. All these LTIR players that don't "help" Ottawa unless they save Ottawa money. Taking on LTIR contracts doesn't save us money.

Things could get interesting.

 

[NyQuil]

I get people think Melnyk is cheap, but I don't think they realize what that means. Melnyk is so cheap he won't buy picks. So that means a player with a 3-4M salary that you attach to a 1st rounder won't work. He just won't pay money for draft picks. Same goes for the cap floor. Everyone keeps saying Ottawa takes on salary to reach the floor. That's not a problem this season. We're at 42M and we still have 18-20M in RFAs and roster holes to fill. We're going to break 60M no problem. All these LTIR players that don't "help" Ottawa unless they save Ottawa money. Taking on LTIR contracts doesn't save us money.

Things could get interesting.

He is cheap enough to accept a few suitcases full of cash left on his doorstep.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

He is cheap enough to accept a few suitcases full of cash left on his doorstep.

I can picture him going down the list of players with big signing bonuses payable July 1st, licking his lips like a hungry hyena.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

As always you decide to take on the biggest strawman you can build.

Well obviously you don't trade Matthews for a haul of young NHLers, prospects and picks unless you're pretty damn sure you can utilize the resulting cap space to add at least a good UFA or two.

I don't think you understand the concept of risk.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

The issue is that if they thought Matthews cap hit was going to be inflated by an Arizona offer sheet, keeping him with the contract they did wasn't really a solution. It destroyed their salary structure and made it impossible to build their team. Worse, the term they gave Matthews was not long enough to where the contract could become less of an issue after the first half.

It was a lose/lose situation for Toronto, and a very unique one because it isn't often there is a hometown superstar coming off their ELC who is potentially going to be a max offer sheet target from a different team. So you can't just apply the convention do everything to keep your superstars wisdom, which normally, I'd agree with.

Without Matthews, Toronto would still have Marner+Tavares, which in terms of superstar forwards would still put them way ahead of most other teams. Marner would also come in at a much better contract, because there wouldn't be the issue of Matthews throwing off the internal salary structure. Some people might argue Tavares threw off the internal salary structure, but I would disagree. If anything, he helped it. He was a UFA superstar, the other players were RFAs. So if anything, it shows that Matthews and Marner should have been much much better than Tavares to get the contracts they did. The contract Matthews got was significantly more lucrative than the Tavares contract.

So if you're Dubas, you hope Matthews/Arizona are bluffing. If they aren't, you get four first rounders and probably 13-14 million to work with via not re-signing Matthews and not having to pay Marner an amount reflective of the Matthews salary structure. You also don't have to be the bad guy because Matthews and Arizona caused a very unique situation. Very few fans are going to be behind the idea of giving Matthews 13-15 million, which would then mean losing Marner.

Here is how the Matthews saga will probably end in Toronto. He and Dubas single handedly destroyed their chances at a cup by wrecking their salary structure. They won't win anything with him, and he will either leave as a UFA and go to Arizona, or he will stay for a much bigger UFA contract that will cause the same problem to perpetually continue in Toronto.

When I say Toronto won't win the Cup, I am obviously not speaking in absolutes. We almost won the Eastern Conference championship a few years ago, but we really shouldn't have, and we weren't really a true contender. Toronto will be really good, and always sort of in the mix for it because they are loaded with superstars, but they will continue to tread water. It will always be that they are chasing problems with their teams like their defense, or after Andersen needs a raise, their goaltending. But they will have trouble addressing them because their salary structure was completely nuked.

It will only be worse now because of the COVID-19 flat salary cap, but I didn't mention it up until this point because it would be silly to evaluate a GMs moves based on something nobody saw coming.

 

[Hale The Villain]

In your scenario you are freeing up about 7M to sign Pietrangelo. While that is way too low IMO, there are other ways to do it.

Move Nylander for 2 1sts and sign AP, keeping a 22yo elite player. Hell with the way Nylanders contract works the Sens could send Logan Brown and the Isles pick for Nylander.

I bolded the second part just because of Tavares. He really looked to be declining this past season. It could be a blip but I’d be sweating bullets if I was Kyle Dumbass.

You're right. They would also need to trade one of their secondary players like Kerfoot, Johnsson or Kapanen, and a guy like Mikhayev or Holl for assets to make it work.

It becomes very difficult to fit Pietrangelo in if you're dealing Nylander's 7M deal instead of Matthews's 11.5M deal. There's a 4.5M difference there.

It's possible that the Leafs could fit in Pietrangelo by trading Nylander and some comibination of Kapanen, Kerfoot, Johnsson, Dermott, Holl and Mikhayev that would open up an additional 8M or so, but it's a lot harder to do.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Yeah trading Matthews doesn’t make much sense from the Leafs point of view. You don’t trade 22 year old guys like that.

Signing Tavares, as good as he is, screwed the Leafs and their flexibility. They knew they had 3 huge RFA signings and were loaded up front, but went out and signed what is a very expensive player they didn’t need whatsoever.

Not to mention he will be on the decline, very likely, from here on out.

How do you pass up signing a high-end #1 C at a cost of zero assets and on a market value contract?

If the cap becomes an issue after signing Tavares at a cost of zero assets just deal Nylander or guys like Kapanen/Johnsson for assets and the problem is solved.

Nylander and Johnsson @ 10.5M or Tavares @ 11M and the haul of picks/prospects that Nylander+Johnsson would return if traded? Easy choice IMO.

They'll have some long-term pain when he's 33-35 but he's already put up two PPG seasons for them and could help them win a cup or two by the time his contract becomes an issue.

 

[BondraTime]

How do you pass up signing a high-end #1 C at a cost of zero assets and on a market value contract?

If the cap becomes an issue after signing Tavares at a cost of zero assets just deal Nylander or guys like Kapanen/Johnsson for assets and the problem is solved.

They'll have some long-term pain when he's 33-35 but he's already put up two PPG seasons for them and could help them win a cup or two by the time his contract becomes an issue.

By putting the 11 million you signed him for towards what your team needs to improve, rather than adding to what is already an area they were set.

Tavares is a huge downgrade from Matthews, which will become more and more apparent each of the next 4-5 years. They still had Kadri, who was making a small amount for what he brings, and was an above average 2nd line Center.

Signing Tavares is huge for most teams, the Leafs are probably among the 3-4 teams in the league that needed him least, and improved the least by adding him. They now need cap space, and massive help on D at the same time.

Using hindsight the Tavares signing looks to be a mistake, and using foresight they should have seen that they were extremely powerful up front, extremely weak on the back, and due for a huge cap crunch in the next 12 months. The Tavares signing made them stronger up front, weaker on the back, and in an even worse spot with the cap, which is a net negative in trying to win a cup if you ask me.

If they can move Nylander, add a big time D, and somehow take no other cap back, they’ll be fine. If they need to shed either Marner or Matthews at all, they made mistakes somewhere.

 

[dumbdick]

By putting the 11 million you signed him for towards what your team needs to improve, rather than adding to what is already an area they were set.

Tavares is a huge downgrade from Matthews, which will become more and more apparent each of the next 4-5 years. They still had Kadri, who was making a small amount for what he brings, and was an above average 2nd line Center.

Signing Tavares is huge for most teams, the Leafs are probably among the 3-4 teams in the league that needed him least, and improved the least by adding him. They now need cap space, and massive help on D at the same time.

Using hindsight the Tavares signing looks to be a mistake, and using foresight they should have seen that they were extremely powerful up front, extremely weak on the back, and due for a huge cap crunch in the next 12 months. The Tavares signing made them stronger up front, weaker on the back, and in an even worse spot with the cap, which is a net negative in trying to win a cup if you ask me.

If they can move Nylander, add a big time D, and somehow take no other cap back, they’ll be fine. If they need to shed either Marner or Matthews at all, they made mistakes somewhere.

Tavares is a huge asset. They could get a kings ransom trading Matthews. It would be like trading Matthews for Tavares PLUS that kings ransom. It was a good move.

 

[Hale The Villain]

By putting the 11 million you signed him for towards what your team needs to improve, rather than adding to what is already an area they were set.

Tavares is a huge downgrade from Matthews, which will become more and more apparent each of the next 4-5 years. They still had Kadri, who was making a small amount for what he brings, and was an above average 2nd line Center.

Signing Tavares is huge for most teams, the Leafs are probably among the 3-4 teams in the league that needed him least, and improved the least by adding him. They now need cap space, and massive help on D at the same time.

Using hindsight the Tavares signing looks to be a mistake, and using foresight they should have seen that they were extremely powerful up front, extremely weak on the back, and due for a huge cap crunch in the next 12 months. The Tavares signing made them stronger up front, weaker on the back, and in an even worse spot with the cap, which is a net negative in trying to win a cup if you ask me.

If they can move Nylander, add a big time D, and somehow take no other cap back, they’ll be fine. If they need to shed either Marner or Matthews at all, they made mistakes somewhere.

Too much center depth is a great problem to have. Gave them the option of trading Kadri, who embarrassed himself and his team with his stupid antics and bad penalties in the playoffs last year.

The Tavares signing was a good one for the Leafs. May not have made the playoffs in 2018/19 or this year without him. He's a legit #1 center and their captain that's only 29 still, and most importantly they acquired him at a cost of ZERO assets. With any UFA contract there's a good chance the last couple years of the deal will look bad, but Tavares is an incredibly hard worker and produces most of his points using his elite IQ and talent, not his tools. I expect he'll still be a very good player even in his mid-30s.

The huge cap crunch can be avoided and a decent D can be added in free agency by trading Nylander and a guy like Kerfoot/Kapanen/Johnsson for a haul of prospects and picks.

Tavares @ 11M + haul of prospect and picks > Nylander @ 7M and Kerfoot @ 3.5M.