Prospect Info: Analysis of Taylor Hall Trade/Return Assets

[JrFischer54]

Arizona is mostly likely not missing the playoffs and I doubt they plunge into a top ten pick. Don’t overestimate a weak Western conference.

i remember when the western conference was super strong. crazy to see how that sways

 

[Nubmer6]

Any other trades we can reference as comps for moving 4-5 picks from 11 or 12 to 7 or 8, guys?

Here's a good article (albeit written by a Flyers fan) about draft values and what it costs to trade up:

What does it cost to trade up in the draft?

 

[Blackjack]

What about trading down? What if, for example, we ended up at 2 and Ottawa had the 6th and 9th picks. Would you do that trade?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Colton Parayko was the top scoring Defenseman every year he played at Fairbanks. Parayko is much more agile and seems much more athletic to me.... aside from height I think that is a poor comparison. More Mike Commadore than Colton Parayko.

Parayko's best year offensively resulted in 26 points in 37 games (2013-14), two points ahead of the second-highest D on UAF (Michael Quinn). In his draft+one season he scored 17 points in 33 games for UAF. In Bahl's draft+one season he scored 34 points in 68 games for Ottawa -- a similar percentage, albeit in a weaker league with younger and smaller opponents on the average. I've said several times that Bahl will never be Parayko offensively because Parayko quite frankly has a far superior shot, but I would have to say that Bahl shows similarly solid offensive instincts -- he's a good passer and is smart when deciding when to pinch in the zone or join a rush.

I don't think that anyone is saying that Bahl is an elite skater -- I think the point is that he's very mobile for his size, much like a Tyler Myers. But I think the point with Bahl is not whether he scores 25 points or 35 points at the NHL level -- this difference will certainly not define him. The point is that he is already a force defensively, with the potential to improve a great deal in that respect with proper development. You just can't teach Bahl's strength or relative athleticism for his size -- they're pretty rare traits. He's going to be a force in the crease, along the boards and in the corners, plain and simple. His wingspan combined with his mobility are a combination which means, quite frankly, he takes up a ton of space and is very difficult to get around. He's also competitive and smart both positionally and with the puck. He's obviously not going to be a guy opposing forwards want to go up against, and that's the point.

I don't think I'd put the pressure on Bahl to be the next Parayko, but I do feel it's a more apt comparable than one you used in Mike Commodore. I think, ideally, Bahl will be more like a hybrid of Parayko and Brandon Carlo (who is one of the most underrated players in the NHL), except with better offensive numbers. To wit, Parayko and Carlo are two of the best shut-down guys in the league -- but while Parayko is a 30-35 point guy, Carlo is about a 15 point guy. I think it's not a stretch to say that Bahl will be elite defensively like those two, and score somewhere in between those two. Were that the case, we'd be talking about one heck of a hockey player.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Who is more likely to create offense in the NHL between Merkley ANDERSON and BASTIAN?

I'd say Anderson. I think he can put up numbers akin to his closest comparable in Ryan Callahan and be a 20-25 goal guy with 45-55 point totals in his prime. There's really nothing not to like about this kid; he oozes character and plays an extremely smart and competitive game -- his sum is was more than his parts, if you will. He's destined to be a fan favorite, and I think he makes the team out of camp next year. Personally, I think he should be on the team now -- he's a far superior player in every respect to John Hayden, who is getting the NHL RW minutes on the 4th line.

Merkley would be second, if he can stay out of the trainer's room. Most of his points will likely be assists, but there's no reason to think he can't succeed as a mid-6 winger with 30-35 assists per year. He's another smart and competitive player.

We probably need to come to terms with the fact that Bastian is a likely bottom 6 guy, although with his size and heart he can be a very solid one. I'd like to see him play with more edge on a consistent level -- with his size and strength that's probably the key to his carving out an NHL role, since his offensive ceiling is not especially high.

 

[Nubmer6]

I don't think that anyone is saying that Bahl is an elite skater -- I think the point is that he's very mobile for his size, much like a Tyler Myers.

The problem is there are definitely multiple articles I've read that say he's a very good skater not just for his size. I just didn't see that (again, I have an untrained eye). FOR his size, I agree though.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

What about trading down? What if, for example, we ended up at 2 and Ottawa had the 6th and 9th picks. Would you do that trade?

It would really hard to pass up on Byfield, but you could potentially get two of Raymond/Askarov/Drysdale/Holtz if you did.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I know it’s been debated ad nauseam but just one more time- the most feasible outcome that would be favorable for the Devils is Arizona missing the playoffs and finishing between 11 and 13. While there’s little chance a Rossi/Raymond/Perfetti fall to this range, every year a player drops a bit (often due to question marks on size of the player). One would think the recent success of guys like DeBrincat would reinforce the notion that smaller players can be stars in today’s NHL. However, there are still plenty of GMs who shy away from undersized prospects. Despite being on the smaller side, Rossi’s stock has risen so much that I sadly don’t see him sliding. “Polarizing” is too strong a word to describe Lucas Raymond but there is certainly divisiveness out there now since he hasn’t put up the gaudy stats this year (reasons have been documented by other posters). Perhaps some teams inexplicably pass on him even if he’s available in the 8–10 range? Not likely, I know. It would be a dream scenario if one of these guys were available for the Devils with the Arizona pick. In my estimation, right now there is a clear tier drop off in talent after the first 8 or 9 players. While it’s typically prudent to collect as many assets as possible in a rebuild, this would be a unique situation in which I strongly believe it would behoove the Devils to explore moving up 4-5 spots for the 7th or 8th pick. Does anyone know what the cost of doing so historically looks like?

I don't think Raymond is polarizing. I think it's just a case of he was over-ranked before the season started, often #2 on draft lists, when he's just not on the same level as a Lafreniere or Byfield and probably a notch below a Stutzle or Rossi. But is Lucas Raymond a tremendous prospect? Absolutely! He's a play-driving, smart and competitive winger with a terrific combination of skating and offensive skill. I don't see any way he falls out of the top 7 in the 2020 draft.

I agree that the best case scenario for the Devils is to pick in the 11-14 range. There will be some very good players there, though I don't foresee a Raymond (or Rossi, or Perfetti) falling so far. That spot could yield a winger with first-line upside like a Dylan Holloway or a Jack Quinn -- or also the possibility of swinging for the fences with a potentially generational goaltending prospect in Yaroslav Askarov.

 

[Devils731]

The problem is there are definitely multiple articles I've read that say he's a very good skater not just for his size. I just didn't see that (again, I have an untrained eye). FOR his size, I agree though.

i can’t speak to being an expert on Bahl because I’ve only watched him a few times but I thought his lateral movement showed a good amount of comfort skating. That’s probably the second most important skating skill he will need so that would put him in good skater camp, for me, as I didn’t see any big flaws to negate his agility

 

[StevenToddIves]

It would really hard to pass up on Byfield, but you could potentially get two of Raymond/Askarov/Drysdale/Holtz if you did.

That's an interesting scenario. I can't see Drysdale falling past #5, however. Holtz would be a coup with the #9 pick.

 

[Triumph]

Ryan Callahan was a much better prospect than Joey Anderson at the same age. Anderson plays a similar style but I doubt he ever ends up as good as Callahan - he'll play that game from a 3rd or 4th line, with the potential to be used in a Zach Hyman in Tornoto sort of role.

 

[GameSeven]

What about trading down? What if, for example, we ended up at 2 and Ottawa had the 6th and 9th picks. Would you do that trade?

Interesting. I think Ottawa says no. From our standpoint, I think we need as much quantity high-end talent as possible so I think that'd be good for us in the long run (probably same reason Ottawa doesn't do it) even though it would be tough to pass on Byfield/Drysdale/others.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Ryan Callahan was a much better prospect than Joey Anderson at the same age. Anderson plays a similar style but I doubt he ever ends up as good as Callahan - he'll play that game from a 3rd or 4th line, with the potential to be used in a Zach Hyman in Tornoto sort of role.

I'm not sure where you get that Callahan was "a much better prospect at the same age" than Joey Anderson. Callahan's first year of scoring over 13 points in the NHL was 2008-09, and he turned 24 during March of that season. Anderson does not turn 22 until after the completion of this current season, and right now he's pretty much the best player on his AHL team. I'm interested which aspect of Callahan's game you would find markedly superior to Anderson -- they're both players with good but not great natural skill-sets who rely on elite character/compete level/smarts to lift their games to a very high level -- both were initially projected as "glue guys" or "locker room guys" but Callahan lifted his game enough to become an excellent mid-six, two-way forward and there's no reason to doubt Anderson is capable of the same.

 

[Devils731]

I'm not sure where you get that Callahan was "a much better prospect at the same age" than Joey Anderson. Callahan's first year of scoring over 13 points in the NHL was 2008-09, and he turned 24 during March of that season. Anderson does not turn 22 until after the completion of this current season, and right now he's pretty much the best player on his AHL team. I'm interested which aspect of Callahan's game you would find markedly superior to Anderson -- they're both players with good but not great natural skill-sets who rely on elite character/compete level/smarts to lift their games to a very high level -- both were initially projected as "glue guys" or "locker room guys" but Callahan lifted his game enough to become an excellent mid-six, two-way forward and there's no reason to doubt Anderson is capable of the same.

Callahan had a strong final junior year and was good in the AHL for his age in his little time there.

52 goals in 62 games his final juniors year and 70 points in 71 games his first 2 AHL seasons. 42 goals in 71 games. Callahan did have some AHL scoring help while he was there but still good numbers.

Anderson had his good freshman year followed up by a not quite as good sophomore year. His AHL numbers are good but not great.

I don’t think it’s a knock on Anderson to say Callahan was a better looking prospect at similar times in their career. Due to Anderson being a year younger in his first 2 AHL seasons I would say he’s not wildly underperforming what Callahan did but Callahan’s numbers are stronger, especially when factoring in goals. Ultimately Anderson will be what he will be but I’d sign up for him having an equal career to Callahan right now as I think he’s more likely to be slightly under Callahan rather than over.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Callahan had a strong final junior year and was good in the AHL for his age in his little time there.

52 goals in 62 games his final juniors year and 70 points in 71 games his first 2 AHL seasons. 42 goals in 71 games. Callahan did have some AHL scoring help while he was there but still good numbers.

Anderson had his good freshman year followed up by a not quite as good sophomore year. His AHL numbers are good but not great.

I don’t think it’s a knock on Anderson to say Callahan was a better looking prospect at similar times in their career. Due to Anderson being a year younger in his first 2 AHL seasons I would say he’s not wildly underperforming what Callahan did but Callahan’s numbers are stronger, especially when factoring in goals. Ultimately Anderson will be what he will be but I’d sign up for him having an equal career to Callahan right now as I think he’s more likely to be slightly under Callahan rather than over.

An excellent assessment on your part, for certain. What I was refuting, to be clear, was the idea that Anderson's future was nothing more than a bottom-six grinder. I would say with some confidence his NHL future will be closer to Callahan than to a faceless checker, but we can check back in 10 years and revisit this.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

An excellent assessment on your part, for certain. What I was refuting, to be clear, was the idea that Anderson's future was nothing more than a bottom-six grinder. I would say with some confidence his NHL future will be closer to Callahan than to a faceless checker, but we can check back in 10 years and revisit this.

Let's. I would be ecstatic is he became a poor mans Callahan, but I don't see it myself. Same with Talvitie. If either of those two became more than 4th liners at any point, I'd consider that a big win. Admittedly my opinion is based on less observation than yours, and you've got far more in the way of credentials, but I continue to fail to see what you do in those guys. I do appreciate your ever optimistic outlook, though.

 

[Triumph]

An excellent assessment on your part, for certain. What I was refuting, to be clear, was the idea that Anderson's future was nothing more than a bottom-six grinder. I would say with some confidence his NHL future will be closer to Callahan than to a faceless checker, but we can check back in 10 years and revisit this.

He doesn't score enough goals. He didn't score enough last season - he only scored 2 goals with a goalie in the net in the NHL - and he's not scoring enough in the AHL. I like him and he'll play in the NHL for a while I think, but he'll have to improve quite a lot to have a Callahan sort of career.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Let's. I would be ecstatic is he became a poor mans Callahan, but I don't see it myself. Same with Talvitie. If either of those two became more than 4th liners at any point, I'd consider that a big win. Admittedly my opinion is based on less observation than yours, and you've got far more in the way of credentials, but I continue to fail to see what you do in those guys. I do appreciate your ever optimistic outlook, though.

Ha, my credentials are no better than yours, or anybody's. I can say that history has proven that players with elite compete levels and characters are far more likely to reach their talent ceilings, and Joey Anderson and Aarne Talvitie are two such players. Talvitie also adds a plus shooting tool to that mix. Are either of these players going to be an Ovechkin or Patrick Kane? Not a chance. But can they be very good, mid-6 forwards who contribute in all areas of the game, including the scoresheet? This is also an undeniable possibility.

 

[StevenToddIves]

He doesn't score enough goals. He didn't score enough last season - he only scored 2 goals with a goalie in the net in the NHL - and he's not scoring enough in the AHL. I like him and he'll play in the NHL for a while I think, but he'll have to improve quite a lot to have a Callahan sort of career.

As I've stated, Ryan Callahan as a 21 year-old prospect is on a very similar plane, in terms of both playing style and productivity, with Joey Anderson. What the future holds for Anderson remains to be seen, but at the same point of development, there is no evidence to refute my statement.

 

[Triumph]

As I've stated, Ryan Callahan as a 21 year-old prospect is on a very similar plane, in terms of both playing style and productivity, with Joey Anderson. What the future holds for Anderson remains to be seen, but at the same point of development, there is no evidence to refute my statement.

There's lots of evidence and 731 already went over it - Callahan was a half a goal a game player who put up 4 shots a game in his rookie AHL season when he was 3 months older than Anderson is now. That Wolfpack team was better and there was probably a more favorable power play environment, but Anderson isn't even at 3 shots a game yet - he's sitting at 2.7 shots/game. That ends up being a huge gap in potential goal scoring - especially if there's not really much evidence in Anderson's past that he has scoring touch.

 

[JrFischer54]

What about trading down? What if, for example, we ended up at 2 and Ottawa had the 6th and 9th picks. Would you do that trade?

Depends on how good that talent at 2 is. It does seem the past drafts though the better talent was later in the top 10 and not actual tops

 

[Guttersniped]

I feel like everyone should recognize that Steve tends to be very optimistic about prospects and their possible potential. Callahan has 186 career goals, which is good enough for 9th most from players drafted in 2004, so, yeah, it’s unlikely Anderson or Talvitie is going to be that productive. I mean the Devils drafted them, we might as well hope for the best, instead of focusing on how they’ll likely fail.

I do think we can give Talvitie a mulligan since his mother just died from a long term illness. Let’s wait and see how he does next season.

 

[Nubmer6]

Let's. I would be ecstatic is he became a poor mans Callahan, but I don't see it myself. Same with Talvitie. If either of those two became more than 4th liners at any point, I'd consider that a big win. Admittedly my opinion is based on less observation than yours, and you've got far more in the way of credentials, but I continue to fail to see what you do in those guys. I do appreciate your ever optimistic outlook, though.

I see high energy in Talvitie and some skill in the few games I've seen him in. I picture him as a Coleman replacement.

 

[My3Sons]

I see high energy in Talvitie and some skill in the few games I've seen him in. I picture him as a Coleman replacement.

I have watched at least 10-15 games of Talvite over the last three years. From WJSS and WJC to college games. Granted all on television but for all I was specifically on watching him. Most recently this last weekend. Pre knee surgery he embodied a quieter version of Coleman’s competitive nature. He wasn’t the skater Coleman is now but I don’t know what Coleman skated like when he was 18-20.

Talvite was always one of the smarter players on the ice with the Finnish junior team and looked at ease playing with the best players in his age group. Don’t forget he was the gold winning WJC captain and scored PPG at the WJC last season.

His PK skills looked like confident Zacha at a younger age. I think he could have been an NHL PK player last season.

Post knee surgery I’m not sure he’s all the way back yet but as noted his family loss makes the knee issue insignificant and I think next year will be when we can seriously evaluate him.

I expected a bottom six player who would be a fan favorite pre knee injury and hopefully he can still achieve that. I really enjoy rooting for smart players who bring a competitive nature and enthusiasm.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

V realistic the Coyotes first could be between 10-15...