Prospect Info: Analysis of Taylor Hall Trade/Return Assets

[Spoiled Bratt]

Watching the Yotes drop in the standings is pure joy.

I’m calling it now... we’ll be picking 11th overall with their 1st round pick.

 

[devilsblood]

I see high energy in Talvitie and some skill in the few games I've seen him in. I picture him as a Coleman replacement.

Nowhere near the speed.

 

[Lou is God]

I see high energy in Talvitie and some skill in the few games I've seen him in. I picture him as a Coleman replacement.

Coleman replacement?? Where the heck is he going?

 

[Nubmer6]

Coleman replacement?? Where the heck is he going?

I don't see Talvitie being ready for another couple/few years, and I have no idea where Blake will be by then. Hopefully he keeps up what he's doing and is still with us. Even if he does, there's always room for two of him on our team

 

[Blackjack]

Coleman is 28 now. He's not ready for the farm yet, but he probably only has a few years left of high level play. He could also decide he's tired of losing and go elsewhere in 2021.

 

[Lou is God]

I gotta admit I thought Coleman was younger, didn't realize he was 28 already

 

[JimEIV]

I don’t think comparing a 23 year old Helgeson with four years of college against a 20 year old Bahl straight out of juniors is exactly fair but you do you I guess.

Let me explain my thought process...

First, if a 20 year old Bahl is not better than a 23 year Helgeson, who is not and never will be an NHL player, his progression curves is starting a very low level...probably a level not worth having this conversation over.

Second, unlike forwards, I think defensemen fit much easier into stylistic categories making easier to compare dmen of the same style. At a high level, it is very easy to see "This guy is an offensive defenseman, that guy a defensive defenseman and the other guy more of two way defender". With that, I think it is much easier to identify specific attributes that with progress will equal success...I think that is much more difficult to do for forwards. Creativity and vision or even will are more abstract than shot, positioning, physicality and overall technique(ability to read plays)...For me anyway it seems easier with Dmen...

As an example of what I mean in the fall of 1997 a 19 year old Colin White came to Albany for the 97-98 season, he would turn 20 that December. New Jersey had a bunch of defensive defensemen in the system - Many were shuttling back and forth from from Albany to New Jersey like Brad Bombardir, Ken Sutton, Souray played his first year in NJ that year after spending early October in Albany...Stevens, Daneyko Odelien where with the big club...So there were a lot of defensive defensemen in NJ at that time in NJ. It was obvious very early on Colin White was going to be an NHL defenseman. It was obvious he had attributes that the guys like Sutton and Bombardir couldn't provide...Ironically I was in love with Souray then. I though he was going to be a shutdown type...Didn't even know he could produce points, it didn't really happen until he was traded for Malakhov and got to Montreal.

Funny thing is White was actually pretty quick when he came into Albany and he was probably 20 lbs lighter than the White we remember, he was ultra aggressive, physical and solid defensively... You see guys like Jay Leach who was the same style and White's contemporary, the next generation were guys like McPhereson and Helgeson....You could can contrast those players at any point when they came into the AHL and compare them to a successful one like Colin White who are all in the same stylistic category in my opinion see immediately that a 20 year old White had things those guys never did. You can do it in reverse too...A good player with have attributes that Seth Helgeson never had.

 

[Blackjack]

Let me explain my thought process...

First, if a 20 year old Bahl is not better than a 23 year Helgeson, who is not and never will be an NHL player, his progression curves is starting a very low level...probably a level not worth having this conversation over.

Second, unlike forwards, I think defensemen fit much easier into stylistic categories making easier to compare dmen of the same style. At a high level, it is very easy to see "This guy is an offensive defenseman, that guy a defensive defenseman and the other guy more of two way defender". With that, I think it is much easier to identify specific attributes that with progress will equal success...I think that is much more difficult to do for forwards. Creativity and vision or even will are more abstract than shot, positioning, physicality and overall technique(ability to read plays)...For me anyway it seems easier with Dmen...

As an example of what I mean in the fall of 1997 a 19 year old Colin White came to Albany for the 97-98 season, he would turn 20 that December. New Jersey had a bunch of defensive defensemen in the system - Many were shuttling back and forth from from Albany to New Jersey like Brad Bombardir, Ken Sutton, Souray played his first year in NJ that year after spending early October in Albany...Stevens, Daneyko Odelien where with the big club...So there were a lot of defensive defensemen in NJ at that time in NJ. It was obvious very early on Colin White was going to be an NHL defenseman. It was obvious he had attributes that the guys like Sutton and Bombardir couldn't provide...Ironically I was in love with Souray then. I though he was going to be a shutdown type...Didn't even know he could produce points, it didn't really happen until he was traded for Malakhov and got to Montreal.

Funny thing is White was actually pretty quick when he came into Albany and he was probably 20 lbs lighter than the White we remember, he was ultra aggressive, physical and solid defensively... You see guys like Jay Leach who was the same style and White's contemporary, the next generation were guys like McPhereson and Helgeson....You could can contrast those players at any point when they came into the AHL and compare them to a successful one like Colin White who are all in the same stylistic category in my opinion see immediately that a 20 year old White had things those guys never did. You can do it in reverse too...A good player with have attributes that Seth Helgeson never had.

Colin White was a tremendous defenseman and easily better than anyone we have today. He was a superb skater, he hit like a truck, and he moved the puck quickly and accurately. I don't know where the idea came from that he was a lumbering pylon that got by on size and nastiness, but it couldn't be further from the truth. It was his eye injury that ruined his career.

As far as categorizing defensemen goes, I guess I agree, but as you noted, many defensemen end up in a different category than expected. Zdeno Chara was never expected to put up big point totals, Adam Larsson was. Also, defenseman scoring is highly dependent on usage, so guys that are getting PP1 time and playing with good forwards are going to put up way more points even if they're not contributing any more than other defensemen on the same team.

 

[Triumph]

Colin White was a fine defenseman but you probably can't name 10 guys who play the way he did who are in the league now and you can't name 5 guys like that who'll be in the league in 5 years. This sort of player is disappearing from the game. During his final season in junior, Colin White managed points on 4% of goals the team scored. Now he missed a few games so we can subtract things, maybe round up to 5%, but his team scored nearly 5 goals a game and he had 19 points. You won't see anyone like that in the NHL in a few years - there won't be players with this kind of offensive ability who become steady mid-pairing D as Colin White was. Even Roman Polak had points on over 10% of goals in his one year in junior. Helgeson, FWIW, was at 9% his last year of junior, then 1%, 6%, 9%, 4%. Santini was 7%, 7%, 8%, 8%, 12% for his first 2 years in junior + 3 college years.

So Colin White and his ilk have nothing whatever to do with Kevin Bahl, a player trying to enter the NHL in 2021 - the game has just changed too much.

(Bahl, FWIW, was at 9% his draft year, 11.5% last season, and is at ~13% this season)

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Just thought I would give this thread a bump. This trade keeps looking better.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Coleman replacement?? Where the heck is he going?

I don't see Talvitie being ready for another couple/few years, and I have no idea where Blake will be by then. Hopefully he keeps up what he's doing and is still with us. Even if he does, there's always room for two of him on our team

Coleman is 28 now. He's not ready for the farm yet, but he probably only has a few years left of high level play. He could also decide he's tired of losing and go elsewhere in 2021.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Arizona is currently tied for the 2nd WC spot with CGY, who has 3 games in hand on them.

Right now their pick would be 12th overall.

 

[FooteBahl]

Arizona is currently tied for the 2nd WC spot with CGY, who has 3 games in hand on them.

Right now their pick would be 12th overall.

And they have like 4-5 more games played then the teams on their heels. My fear now is that they’ll win the lottery, if not, there’s a decent chance for two top-ten pics. I love it!

 

[TrufleShufle]

They could potentially drop 3 spots from teams with games in hand alone. At least one for sure if Nashville hasn't given up, 2 if Minny can at least go 2-1-2 in the next 5. Chicago would have to win every game so I don't think they will affect it. But I think it's safe to say they will be dropping further as long as a couple of the teams behind them decide they want to try.

 

[Blackjack]

The pick is 10th overall based on point percentage. Buffalo is in the 9th spot and a few points behind them, I'd say they're unlikely to fall behind Buffalo, but if the pick could stay at ten that would be freaking amazing.

 

[HBK27]

The pick is 10th overall based on point percentage. Buffalo is in the 9th spot and a few points behind them, I'd say they're unlikely to fall behind Buffalo, but if the pick could stay at ten that would be freaking amazing.

I agree it's unlikely they fall behind Buffalo, but the two teams are essentially tied in point percentage with Arizona at .461 and Buffalo at .458.

That's just crazy to think considering how bad Buffalo's season has gone and Arizona making a playoff push.

 

[Blackjack]

I agree it's unlikely they fall behind Buffalo, but the two teams are essentially tied in point percentage with Arizona at .461 and Buffalo at .458.

That's just crazy to think considering how bad Buffalo's season has gone and Arizona making a playoff push.

Who knows, if they really do trade Hall and Hjalmarsson maybe they lose even more games. Honestly though, even if it stayed at 10th overall it would be absolutely fantastic.

 

[Devils731]

The two teams behind Arizona having 5 games in hand seems so weird 3/4’s of the way through the season.

 

[OmNomNom]

come onnnnnnn top 10 pick

man if we somehow ended up with the 4th/5th OA lol

 

[Nubmer6]

come onnnnnnn top 10 pick

man if we somehow ended up with the 4th/5th OA lol

I've asked this before but... if we end up winning the 2OA and Zona comes in top 9, would you trade 2nd+9th to Ottawa for 4th + 6th?

I have visions of Drysdale and Holtz dancing in my head.

 

[vtdevils2k]

I've asked this before but... if we end up winning the 2OA and Zona comes in top 9, would you trade 2nd+9th to Ottawa for 4th + 6th?

I have visions of Drysdale and Holtz dancing in my head.

And what if whoever has the 3rd pick takes Drysdale? lol

Keep the picks. Would be extremely happy with a top 2 pick this year. We need high end talent.

 

[OmNomNom]

lol ppl will rage so hard if we win the lottery again

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Really liked the deal when it went down and I’m loving it even more as the season goes on.

 

[Nubmer6]

And what if whoever has the 3rd pick takes Drysdale? lol

Keep the picks. Would be extremely happy with a top 2 pick this year. We need high end talent.

I guess we can always switch Hughes to wing. It just seems we could use a sniper wing and a D man (if we could get him)
I feel like Ottawa is the only real threat to take Drysdale top 4, mainly because they have 2 high picks and may very well go with a D and a F.

 

[longislanddevil]

I've asked this before but... if we end up winning the 2OA and Zona comes in top 9, would you trade 2nd+9th to Ottawa for 4th + 6th?

I have visions of Drysdale and Holtz dancing in my head.

I've asked this before but... if we end up winning the 2OA and Zona comes in top 9, would you trade 2nd+9th to Ottawa for 4th + 6th?

I have visions of Drysdale and Holtz dancing in my head.

I would absolutely make this deal in fantasy land. Why? The talent gap between most people’s 2OA (Byfield) and 4 (Stutzle/Drysdale/Holtz/Rossi) is much closer IMHO than that between 6 and 9. There is a significant tier drop off after the first 8 picks or so. I don’t have a huge mancrush on Byfield and would be extremely content with either Stutzle/Drysdale/Rossi in particular at 4. Just imagine coming away with Stutzle/Drysdale and either Rossi/Holtz/Raymond. Yes, please!!