Prospect Info: Analysis of Taylor Hall Trade/Return Assets

[NJDevs26]

The annoyance for me with Shero is NOW he finds religion in terms of having some defensemen with size after a decade in Pittsburgh and 5 years of our midget corps getting thrown around like rag dolls? It shouldn’t have taken even this long.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

I think we’ll have 2 giants on our blueline in the next 2 to 3 years.

If things go according to plan, Bahl and Misyul will be two defensive dmen who can skate like they’re 5’10".

Having Bahl our 2nd pairing and Misyul on our 3rd pairing (or vice-versa) would be amazing.

 

[MartyOwns]

The annoyance for me with Shero is NOW he finds religion in terms of having some defensemen with size after a decade in Pittsburgh and 5 years of our midget corps getting thrown around like rag dolls? It shouldn’t have taken even this long.

he had to address other areas, namely forwards.

 

[Blackjack]

The annoyance for me with Shero is NOW he finds religion in terms of having some defensemen with size after a decade in Pittsburgh and 5 years of our midget corps getting thrown around like rag dolls? It shouldn’t have taken even this long.

He didn't totally abandon size - He traded for Mueller, and he drafted Rykov and Bernard, but I generally agree. I think it's fair to wonder if Crosby and Malkin didn't warp his perception a little bit in terms of how far you can go with skill.

he had to address other areas, namely forwards.

That's true, but when he did address defense, he had way too much bias toward smaller skilled players. Vatanen, Butcher, Smith, Davies, Walsh, Subban - to be clear, I don't have anything against any of these guys individually, but I don't think you can have more than three of them in your lineup, they each need to be balanced with a sturdy 6'3 guy to clean out the corners. (Subban not as much, he's pretty strong and physical, and not that small at 6 feet.)

 

[Blackjack]

I think we’ll have 2 giants on our blueline in the next 2 to 3 years.

If things go according to plan, Bahl and Misyul will be two defensive dmen who can skate like they’re 5’10".

Having Bahl our 2nd pairing and Misyul on our 3rd pairing (or vice-versa) would be amazing.

Not directed at you specifically, but I think it's weird that everyone seems to agree that Bahl's ceiling is a #4. Chara is a 3rd rounder and he scored a half ppg in his D+1 year. Not saying that Bahl is going to be Chara, but he's scoring much more for his Junior team.

 

[The Wumpus]

Not directed at you specifically, but I think it's weird that everyone seems to agree that Bahl's ceiling is a #4. Chara is a 3rd rounder and he scored a half ppg in his D+1 year. Not saying that Bahl is going to be Chara, but he's scoring much more for his Junior team.

I think there is a lot of stereotyping of Bahl due to his size going on out there. Plenty of comments of various main board threads about how he can't skate, when he obviously can. Also posts about him being soft or a gentle giant when that is obviously not the case either.

Same thing we saw with people comparing Logan Brown to Brian Boyle, despite their utterly different games.

I hope we take it slow with Bahl and let him develop. Could be a real beast.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Butcher was a no brainer, it was a free asset.

Vatanen trade was also a no brainer since he is a really good dman and Henrique vanishes way too often every season.

 

[Blackjack]

Butcher was a no brainer, it was a free asset.

Vatanen trade was also a no brainer since he is a really good dman and Henrique vanishes way too often every season.

Yeah, that's why I said I don't have any problem with those guys individually. I'm also very happy we have Smith in the system even though he's also under 6 feet. Same goes for Davies and Walsh, Davies was a steal for a 7th rounder, and Walsh could be great value as a 3rd. But in the aggregate it just adds up to too many small, skilled defensemen.

 

[OxheadHorseface]

The annoyance for me with Shero is NOW he finds religion in terms of having some defensemen with size after a decade in Pittsburgh and 5 years of our midget corps getting thrown around like rag dolls? It shouldn’t have taken even this long.

I don't think you can in fairness say the thing about midget defensive corp until 2 seasons ago when Butcher and Vatanen joined.

If you look back, quite a few regular-sized and large NHL defensemen have been tried and just washed out. Shero brought in Moore, Lovejoy, and Mueller who have played quite a few games for NJ. He also brought in Mozik, Quincey, Kapla, Prout, and Gryba as longshot bets that lost. None of those guys are Bahl-big but none are midgets.

He's been trying but only the smaller guys have stuck under Hynes. It hurts that Hynes couldn't make something of any of them or Larsson, Gelinas, Merrill and Santini.
One nice thing about targeting Bahl is he has a timeline closer to Ty Smith. Should they both pan out their respective sizes balance each other when/if Bahl makes the club.

 

[MNDevilsfan]

1)SOFT/POROUS BLUELINE: I don't think there is any team in the NHL save perhaps Detroit who, over the past two seasons, has been pinned in their defensive zone with the regularity of the Devils. NJ sorely lacks a D with the physicality and defensive acumen to separate an opposing player from the puck and cleanly get it out of the zone. When your best defensive, shut-down option is 37-year old Andy Greene, there's a problem. NHL GMs that judge defensemen by possession charts and ignore the big picture will miss the playoffs year in and year out. Winning teams have a mix of puck-movers and physical, shut-down guys -- just look at the rosters of Boston and St. Louis last season, or Washington and Vegas the season before. The Devils scouting did a great job addressing this in the 2019 draft, with astute selections of D Misyul, Ohktyuk, Vukojevic and McCarthy. These players were all underrated because of the over-emphasis on offensive blueliners, when a good NHL blueline requires balance. Adding Kevin Bahl to this mix, in my mind, was a very good call by Shero. My biggest problem with the Hall trade were the conditions attached to the draft picks and the inclusion of Schnarr as opposed to getting another legit NHL prospect like Jenik or Farinacci.

I don't disagree with you on the need for different types of players on the blue line. I question investing so much of a draft, and then your most valuable trade chip, to address any single need, but particularly this case where the apparent top 4 upside of any of these guys doesn't seem terribly high.

But, I certainly acknowledge there's a lot that could have gone into the decision making beyond knee jerk "we need more toughness on the blueline" hockey man thinking. The Devils have some good analytics people, and I wouldn't be surprised if they feel like they've identified a market inefficiency on players like this and believe they can get good value, or that the potential upside is being underrated by the hockey community at large. As others referenced earlier, maybe there are some draft strategy elements to it as well.

Maybe it was just pure coincidence that they had a run of these types of players because they were going by their draft board, and maybe Bahl was legitimately the best prospect available in a Hall return. If that's the case, it is what it is.

Either way, I guess we'll see. I remain pretty skeptical that any of these players will play anything more than a depth role for the Devils down the road, but I am not basing that on much other than the analysis I've read from others plus general draft trends, etc. If one or more of these players become significant pieces of the future defense I'll happily eat crow. Certainly I wish them the best in making skeptics like me look foolish.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

The annoyance for me with Shero is NOW he finds religion in terms of having some defensemen with size after a decade in Pittsburgh and 5 years of our midget corps getting thrown around like rag dolls? It shouldn’t have taken even this long.

This is something he probably came around to in the 2018 playoffs, if I had to guess, but he wasn't going to pass on Ty Smith. He put it into action in the 2019 draft and with bringing in Bahl. I predict with relatively high certainty that he's going to trade Vatanen and will sign Joel Edmundon assuming he makes it to free agency. With less certainty, I predict that he will attempt to trade for Dylan Samberg.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I agree with all of this, and I especially agree that Shero seems to have recognized the problem in adding the prospects you listed. It will be interesting to see what they do in the offseason. Most of those prospects will need some time in the minors, so that still leaves the defense small in the meantime. Can you see the team targeting a guy like Jake Muzzin in the summer?

Muzzin is precisely the player the Devils should target in the off-season. A nice physical, shut-down guy with very good puck-moving skills. He would greatly improve the Devils blueline, and I could see him having interest in a situation like NJ where he would be a clearcut #1/#2 D.

 

[StevenToddIves]

At the draft, I thought the self-consciousness about the D was surprising. Adding those big guys plus Bahl later. Seems like they didn't think highly enough of the depth of the draft to go BPA so they went with need. You wonder, given that these guys know that there's less than a 10% chance of hitting on a significant player from the 2nd round on, how much less precious they are once you have an analytics crew on board, who some suggested were behind the whole trading down and acquiring more picks strategy.Where assessments of quality are more suspect and you have to start playing the percentages more (thus getting and using more picks).

I also wonder how much of it was a reaction to WAS and STL, not that anyone would ever admit that they're swayed by recent cup wins.

Ohktyuk (#61) may be considered a bit of a reach in the second round, but the Devils scouting was apparently bonkers over him. I would have preferred, as I've stated, a high-upside F like Dorofeyev or Legare or Janicke in that spot. Arguments could certainly be made that Misyul (#70) and McCarthy (#118) were the best players available where they were drafted. Vukojevic went about where he should have at #82.

But I certainly am in agreement that the Devils saw a sore need for physical, shut-down D in the system and went after them big-time in the 2019 draft. I think it was ultimately a good decision. If two of those four kids come close to their potential as #3/#4 shut down guys who can clear creases, win in the corners and open up ice for more offensive kids like Ty Smith and Reilly Walsh, it will be huge for the future of the organization.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This is something he probably came around to in the 2018 playoffs, if I had to guess, but he wasn't going to pass on Ty Smith. He put it into action in the 2019 draft and with bringing in Bahl. I predict with relatively high certainty that he's going to trade Vatanen and will sign Joel Edmundon assuming he makes it to free agency. With less certainty, I predict that he will attempt to trade for Dylan Samberg.

I agree Vatanen is gone at the deadline. Also, I think these players will be shopped: Subban, Simmonds, Mueller, Wood. Slight chance of Greene going to a contender, but I think that would be up to him. Teams like Winnipeg and Montreal could really use him.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Well, I feel even the 1st round is a crapshoot. Just with much better odds of winning.

I can understand leaning towards a need. I just disagree with going almost entirely towards it.

The draft is a crapshoot for teams with poor scouting and development, but it is a science for teams with good scouting and development.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think we’ll have 2 giants on our blueline in the next 2 to 3 years.

If things go according to plan, Bahl and Misyul will be two defensive dmen who can skate like they’re 5’10".

Having Bahl our 2nd pairing and Misyul on our 3rd pairing (or vice-versa) would be amazing.

Don't sleep on Case McCarthy -- I couldn't he higher on this kid. He's a few years away, but he's better with the puck than most people realize and he's an absolute beast defensively.

 

[Nubmer6]

The draft is a crapshoot for teams with poor scouting and development, but it is a science for teams with good scouting and development.

No team hits 100%. Good scouting and development increase your odds, perhaps significantly, and there is a science to increasing your odds of success, but there's definitely an element of luck still involved.

 

[devilsblood]

Muzzin is precisely the player the Devils should target in the off-season. A nice physical, shut-down guy with very good puck-moving skills. He would greatly improve the Devils blueline, and I could see him having interest in a situation like NJ where he would be a clearcut #1/#2 D.

He'll turn 32 in year 1 of any deal he signs, which would be OK if it was a 3 year deal, but my guess is it will be longer then that.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Phœnix is coming back down to earth. They’re 5-5 in their last 10 games and they’re down 3 to the Knights.

The injury to Kuemper will sink the Yotes IMO. They have one of the toughest schedule in the 2nd half and there’s 10 teams, league wide, who are 4 pts behind them.

Shero banked on Phoenix not being able to sustain their current pace and I’m 99.9% certain he’ll win that bet, hands down.

We’re probably looking at a very solid pick and having 2 picks in the first half of the 1st round is extremely exciting.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Phœnix is coming back down to earth. They’re 5-5 in their last 10 games and they’re down 3 to the Knights.

The injury to Kuemper will sink the Yotes IMO. They have one of the toughest schedule in the 2nd half and there’s 10 teams, league wide, who are 4 pts behind them.

Shero banked on Phoenix not being able to sustain their current pace and I’m 99.9% certain he’ll win that bet, hands down.

We’re probably looking at a very solid pick and having 2 picks in the first half of the 1st round is extremely exciting.

Well he protected himself in case they went either way. They make it and win a round we get a 2nd next year instead of a third which is still valuable. Plus their odds of signing Hall go up if they make it.

This should go well for us either way. Bahl actually looks like a decent prospect too

 

[StevenToddIves]

Well he protected himself in case they went either way. They make it and win a round we get a 2nd next year instead of a third which is still valuable. Plus their odds of signing Hall go up if they make it.

This should go well for us either way. Bahl actually looks like a decent prospect too

I really can't see the Coyotes as more than a bubble team unless they trade a couple more prospects for a top center, which seems unlikely. Which means a very good shot of the Devils drafting twice in the top 15 with a very strong 2020 draft class.

 

[135ace]

I really can't see the Coyotes as more than a bubble team unless they trade a couple more prospects for a top center, which seems unlikely. Which means a very good shot of the Devils drafting twice in the top 15 with a very strong 2020 draft class.

I agree. It's also the reason why I don't mind the return so much. I would have much rather gotten a prospect like Timmins or Newhook or Vaakanainen over Bahl, but the fact is Arizona's pick will likely be a good 10 selections higher than Colorado's or Boston's and we were never going to get a guy like Byram in return.

 

[longislanddevil]

I understand Nick Merkley has 12 points in 15 games for Binghamton and is playing really well. Are there any avid Binghamton Devils watchers or followers that can chime in with thoughts on his play?

@StevenToddIves Please consider it a high compliment that I like to bring you in for your insight on these youngsters.

I’m not going to get too carried away but it appears some of the kids in the Hall trade (no, I didn’t originally say that on purpose) may have some jam. This deal could wind up being much better than first thought- if Bahl or Merkley can hit their ceilings, combined with the distinct possibility the Arizona draft pick could be as high as 1.12 if things break accordingly...Shero may have done us a solid before getting canned.

 

[longislanddevil]

Ohktyuk (#61) may be considered a bit of a reach in the second round, but the Devils scouting was apparently bonkers over him. I would have preferred, as I've stated, a high-upside F like Dorofeyev or Legare or Janicke in that spot. Arguments could certainly be made that Misyul (#70) and McCarthy (#118) were the best players available where they were drafted. Vukojevic went about where he should have at #82.

But I certainly am in agreement that the Devils saw a sore need for physical, shut-down D in the system and went after them big-time in the 2019 draft. I think it was ultimately a good decision. If two of those four kids come close to their potential as #3/#4 shut down guys who can clear creases, win in the corners and open up ice for more offensive kids like Ty Smith and Reilly Walsh, it will be huge for the future of the organization.

Clearly the Devils’ plan, if anything, was to trade back and select as many big, bruising defensemen as they could. I also remember being surprised by the Ohktyuk pick in round 2. I was hoping Robertson would keep sliding but he didn’t fall quite far enough. It irked me that the Rangers scooped him up before we could. Do you think the Devils should have altered their approach on the fly (in regards to my opening sentence), gotten aggressive and moved up a bit to snag Robertson? I’m curious how he is performing this year.

 

[Blackjack]

I understand Nick Merkley has 12 points in 15 games for Binghamton and is playing really well. Are there any avid Binghamton Devils watchers or followers that can chime in with thoughts on his play?

@StevenToddIves Please consider it a high compliment that I like to bring you in for your insight on these youngsters.

I’m not going to get too carried away but it appears some of the kids in the Hall trade (no, I didn’t originally say that on purpose) may have some jam. This deal could wind up being much better than first thought- if Bahl or Merkley can hit their ceilings, combined with the distinct possibility the Arizona draft pick could be as high as 1.12 if things break accordingly...Shero may have done us a solid before getting canned.

Scott Wheeler introduced his writeup on Arizona's farm system like this:

Here’s the truth: The Coyotes were a few spots higher on this list before they moved three of their top 10 prospects in the Taylor Hall trade – and lost another for the rest of the year due to injury.
Wheeler's 2020 NHL prospect pool rankings: No. 20 Arizona...

When the trade went down, it was kind of sold as Bahl and the 1st being the primary pieces of the deal, with Merkeley and Schnarr being long-shot toss ins that probably wouldn't amount to much. I think what we've seen since the trade has made me question that narrative a bit. Maybe Bahl and the 1st are still the main pieces, but Merkeley and Schnarr certainly seem like more than throw-ins.