StevenToddIves
Registered User
Many of you have been writing me to ask my thoughts on the Taylor Hall trade and prospect return, so I thought I would take an hour to weigh in. I would rate the Devils Taylor Hall-haul in the B-/C+ range.
There are two major reasons to be upset. One: if the Devils retained salary (which Arizona desperately needed to get the deal done), how was Shero unable to get one of Arizona's top two prospects (Barrett Hayton/Viktor Soderstrom)? It seems that Shero, who was too patient with the firing of John Hynes, was too impatient with getting rid of the Taylor Hall headache. I would be happier with the lack of one of Hayton/Soderstrom if the Devils were able to get the Arizona 2021 first-round pick in addition to the 2020 first-rounder -- no conditions attached. But again Shero conceded with the conditions applied to the 2021 draft pick and, even moreso, by having the 2020 pick top-3 lottery protected. How did Shero agree to this? He couldn't have said "no conditions, no deal"? Arizona should have been more desperate to acquire Hall than the Devils were to give him up -- after all, the trade deadline is not for over two months.
However, there are also reasons to be excited. Foremost -- and let's not make any mistake about this -- Taylor Hall was absolutely not re-signing with the Devils as an unrestricted free agent in the 2020 offseason. Hall -- as his his right (so let's not hate the guy for this) -- has one huge opportunity in the prime of his career to cash in and choose his destiny. There's going to be a bidding war for Hall's services in the off-season, and this is precisely what he wants. So, the Devils went out and got more in return for a half-season of Taylor Hall than they gave up for multiple seasons of Taylor Hall -- including the only MVP season in the history of the New Jersey franchise. So, ultimately, the Taylor Hall saga in the Garden State absolutely must be considered a huge victory.
So, what did the Devils receive? Well, the best asset is certainly the Arizona 2020 first-rounder, even if it is top-three protected. The fact is that, even with Taylor Hall, the Coyotes are far from a lock for the playoffs. The media can crow all day that they're a first-place team, but Arizona is mere percentage points ahead of Edmonton and literally one win separates them from 4th place in the Pacific Division, which is clearly the weakest division in the NHL. Largely responsible for this has been otherworldly goaltending by Darcy Kuemper and a tremendous coaching job/system under Head Coach Rick Tocchet. Is this sustainable? Maybe, maybe not -- I'm not Nostradamus. However, the Arizona first-rounder, in my mind, has as good a chance of winding up in the 10-15 range as it does of falling in the 20-25 range. Had the Devils made a Hall deal with Colorado or St. Louis, the pick would have an astronomically larger chance of winding up in the 25-31 range -- we're talking about actual contenders with those franchises.
The second-best asset the Devils received was enormous Ottawa 67's LD Kevin Bahl. At 6'7-230, he combines very fluid skating (especially for a player of his immense size) and a good, if unspectacular, skill-set with the puck. In my mind, this kid's upside is Colton Parayko-sans-cannon-shot and his downside is a steady, defensive presence with size for your bottom four. That's a covetable prospect.
C/W Nick Merkley is the wild card in this deal. Not the most athletic kid in the world -- he has average skates/shooting/hands and average size at 5'11/190 -- Merkley relies on savvy and smarts to separate himself from the pack. He's a high-energy, hard-worker who is loved by his teammates. While his development has taken some time, I think Merkley has the upside to be a pass-first, do-it-all mid-6 F who can play on the 2nd PP and put up 15-35-50 scoring lines at the NHL level. At the very least, his energy and hockey IQ make him a good bet to be a fan-favorite bottom 6 F with the versatility to play either wing.
The final assets are the conditional 2021 Arizona pick (3rd rounder, 2nd rounder if either the Coyotes re-sign Hall or win a playoff round in 2020 -- neither of which are likely, in my estimation -- and 1st rounder in the unbelievable even that both events occur) and C Nate Schnarr. Again, I was nonplussed that -- even after retaining salary and not getting a top-2 Coyotes prospect -- the Devils had to make so many concessions on the 2021 pick. It should have, at the very least, been a guaranteed 2nd rounder with the condition of being a 1st rounder if EITHER of those two events occurred. As for Schnarr? He's a defensive-oriented center with very good size who projects to be a bottom 6 guy. Though I like to root for these kids, I don't get particularly excited about acquiring them in trades. I will say that the Devils system is not exactly flush with checking line centers with size, so the kid fills a need.
Ultimately, I don't dislike the deal for the Devils but I'm left somehow underwhelmed. Had the Devils got Hayton or Soderstrom, I'd be happier. Had the Devils replaced Schnarr with another Arizona #3-#5 prospect (Jan Jenik/ John Farinacci), I'd be happier. Had the Devils held out for better conditions on the 2021 pick, I'd be happier. Had the Devils gotten a 2020 first-rounder which was not lottery protected, I'd be happier. But to me, this is a shade better than the package Vegas received in return for Mark Stone last year in a comparable deal (though I would rank Brannstrom a shade above Bahl, Markley evens that out while the Devils received a 1st rounder as opposed to Ottawa receiving a 2nd) -- so it's tough to cry about. And again -- ultimately and most importantly -- the Devils ultimately win the Taylor Hall scenario. Keep in mind all it took to get him was Adam Larsson, straight up.
There are two major reasons to be upset. One: if the Devils retained salary (which Arizona desperately needed to get the deal done), how was Shero unable to get one of Arizona's top two prospects (Barrett Hayton/Viktor Soderstrom)? It seems that Shero, who was too patient with the firing of John Hynes, was too impatient with getting rid of the Taylor Hall headache. I would be happier with the lack of one of Hayton/Soderstrom if the Devils were able to get the Arizona 2021 first-round pick in addition to the 2020 first-rounder -- no conditions attached. But again Shero conceded with the conditions applied to the 2021 draft pick and, even moreso, by having the 2020 pick top-3 lottery protected. How did Shero agree to this? He couldn't have said "no conditions, no deal"? Arizona should have been more desperate to acquire Hall than the Devils were to give him up -- after all, the trade deadline is not for over two months.
However, there are also reasons to be excited. Foremost -- and let's not make any mistake about this -- Taylor Hall was absolutely not re-signing with the Devils as an unrestricted free agent in the 2020 offseason. Hall -- as his his right (so let's not hate the guy for this) -- has one huge opportunity in the prime of his career to cash in and choose his destiny. There's going to be a bidding war for Hall's services in the off-season, and this is precisely what he wants. So, the Devils went out and got more in return for a half-season of Taylor Hall than they gave up for multiple seasons of Taylor Hall -- including the only MVP season in the history of the New Jersey franchise. So, ultimately, the Taylor Hall saga in the Garden State absolutely must be considered a huge victory.
So, what did the Devils receive? Well, the best asset is certainly the Arizona 2020 first-rounder, even if it is top-three protected. The fact is that, even with Taylor Hall, the Coyotes are far from a lock for the playoffs. The media can crow all day that they're a first-place team, but Arizona is mere percentage points ahead of Edmonton and literally one win separates them from 4th place in the Pacific Division, which is clearly the weakest division in the NHL. Largely responsible for this has been otherworldly goaltending by Darcy Kuemper and a tremendous coaching job/system under Head Coach Rick Tocchet. Is this sustainable? Maybe, maybe not -- I'm not Nostradamus. However, the Arizona first-rounder, in my mind, has as good a chance of winding up in the 10-15 range as it does of falling in the 20-25 range. Had the Devils made a Hall deal with Colorado or St. Louis, the pick would have an astronomically larger chance of winding up in the 25-31 range -- we're talking about actual contenders with those franchises.
The second-best asset the Devils received was enormous Ottawa 67's LD Kevin Bahl. At 6'7-230, he combines very fluid skating (especially for a player of his immense size) and a good, if unspectacular, skill-set with the puck. In my mind, this kid's upside is Colton Parayko-sans-cannon-shot and his downside is a steady, defensive presence with size for your bottom four. That's a covetable prospect.
C/W Nick Merkley is the wild card in this deal. Not the most athletic kid in the world -- he has average skates/shooting/hands and average size at 5'11/190 -- Merkley relies on savvy and smarts to separate himself from the pack. He's a high-energy, hard-worker who is loved by his teammates. While his development has taken some time, I think Merkley has the upside to be a pass-first, do-it-all mid-6 F who can play on the 2nd PP and put up 15-35-50 scoring lines at the NHL level. At the very least, his energy and hockey IQ make him a good bet to be a fan-favorite bottom 6 F with the versatility to play either wing.
The final assets are the conditional 2021 Arizona pick (3rd rounder, 2nd rounder if either the Coyotes re-sign Hall or win a playoff round in 2020 -- neither of which are likely, in my estimation -- and 1st rounder in the unbelievable even that both events occur) and C Nate Schnarr. Again, I was nonplussed that -- even after retaining salary and not getting a top-2 Coyotes prospect -- the Devils had to make so many concessions on the 2021 pick. It should have, at the very least, been a guaranteed 2nd rounder with the condition of being a 1st rounder if EITHER of those two events occurred. As for Schnarr? He's a defensive-oriented center with very good size who projects to be a bottom 6 guy. Though I like to root for these kids, I don't get particularly excited about acquiring them in trades. I will say that the Devils system is not exactly flush with checking line centers with size, so the kid fills a need.
Ultimately, I don't dislike the deal for the Devils but I'm left somehow underwhelmed. Had the Devils got Hayton or Soderstrom, I'd be happier. Had the Devils replaced Schnarr with another Arizona #3-#5 prospect (Jan Jenik/ John Farinacci), I'd be happier. Had the Devils held out for better conditions on the 2021 pick, I'd be happier. Had the Devils gotten a 2020 first-rounder which was not lottery protected, I'd be happier. But to me, this is a shade better than the package Vegas received in return for Mark Stone last year in a comparable deal (though I would rank Brannstrom a shade above Bahl, Markley evens that out while the Devils received a 1st rounder as opposed to Ottawa receiving a 2nd) -- so it's tough to cry about. And again -- ultimately and most importantly -- the Devils ultimately win the Taylor Hall scenario. Keep in mind all it took to get him was Adam Larsson, straight up.
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