Prospect Info: Analysis of Taylor Hall Trade/Return Assets

[Triumph]

Merkley is 22; it's still unlikely that he is anything. He'll play some games in the NHL but I doubt he sticks. He'll tear up the AHL and any other league he plays in though.

Remains to be seen what Schnarr can be.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Merkley is 22; it's still unlikely that he is anything. He'll play some games in the NHL but I doubt he sticks. He'll tear up the AHL and any other league he plays in though.

Remains to be seen what Schnarr can be.

Saying Merkley still has top 6 potential would be a stretch, but he always had and still has bottom to middle 6 potential. There’s no reason to write off his NHL potential.

 

[Triumph]

Saying Merkley still has top 6 potential would be a stretch, but he always had and still has bottom to middle 6 potential. There’s no reason to write off his NHL potential.

I know that for most people, the word 'unlikely' is a weasel word that means 'no, but I want to cover my ass'. For me, it means 'not likely to occur, but still could very well occur'. I'm not writing anything off. It's just not likely, that's all - people with Merkley's results to date and career arc usually do not get full time NHL jobs. Sometimes they do.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I understand Nick Merkley has 12 points in 15 games for Binghamton and is playing really well. Are there any avid Binghamton Devils watchers or followers that can chime in with thoughts on his play?

@StevenToddIves Please consider it a high compliment that I like to bring you in for your insight on these youngsters.

I’m not going to get too carried away but it appears some of the kids in the Hall trade (no, I didn’t originally say that on purpose) may have some jam. This deal could wind up being much better than first thought- if Bahl or Merkley can hit their ceilings, combined with the distinct possibility the Arizona draft pick could be as high as 1.12 if things break accordingly...Shero may have done us a solid before getting canned.

Like many draft writers, I was very high on Nick Merkley in his draft year of 2015. Despite having only average tools go size/skating/shooting, Merkley tallied 92 points and an eye-popping 70 assists for Kelowna of the WHL in his draft year, shining due to his terrific vision, smarts and compete level. Unfortunately, in the half-decade since he was drafted, Merkley has had surgery after surgery due to major injury after major injury. I hold out hope that Merkley can still forge out a successful NHL career as a gritty, mid-6 F who makes his linemates better -- maybe a 40 to 5o point guy. If he can stay out of the trainer's room, Merkley can certainly make the team out of camp next season.

I really like Bahl -- most of the people who read me on the Devils threads know I highly value physical, shut-down defensemen, and Bahl's rare combination of immense size, very good skating and high intelligence makes him a potential defensive force. His upside is certainly in the ballpark of Colton Parayko, and we all saw how valuable that type of player is during the St. Louis Blues' Stanley Cup championship run last spring.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Clearly the Devils’ plan, if anything, was to trade back and select as many big, bruising defensemen as they could. I also remember being surprised by the Ohktyuk pick in round 2. I was hoping Robertson would keep sliding but he didn’t fall quite far enough. It irked me that the Rangers scooped him up before we could. Do you think the Devils should have altered their approach on the fly (in regards to my opening sentence), gotten aggressive and moved up a bit to snag Robertson? I’m curious how he is performing this year.

Matthew Robertson has been outstanding this year, far and away the most valuable blueliner on a very good Edmonton Oil Kings team. He's going to be a terrific NHL-er and is a key part of a Rangers prospect pool which is one of the best in the NHL. The Rangers are loaded with excellent D prospects -- Robertson is probably the #2 on that list, between #1 K'Andre Miller and #3 Nils Lundqvist. The Rangers also are very strong in terms of young wingers, though they are going to need to take advantage of a high 2020 draft pick to address an organizational dearth at center. Filip Chytil should become a very good #2 pivot, but there's pretty much nothing behind him in the pipeline and that head-scratching, hideous pick of Lias Andersson at #7 overall in 2017 continues to haunt the organization.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I know that for most people, the word 'unlikely' is a weasel word that means 'no, but I want to cover my ass'. For me, it means 'not likely to occur, but still could very well occur'. I'm not writing anything off. It's just not likely, that's all - people with Merkley's results to date and career arc usually do not get full time NHL jobs. Sometimes they do.

We must keep in mind that Merkley's problems have been due to injury, rather than poor play on the ice. Thus, his career arc should not be judged in typical fashion. If your concern that Merkley will always be injury-prone, well that's a fair and reasonable concern. But judging him by his point totals would be unfair to the kid -- he still has upside to make it as a productive NHL forward.

 

[Triumph]

We must keep in mind that Merkley's problems have been due to injury, rather than poor play on the ice. Thus, his career arc should not be judged in typical fashion. If your concern that Merkley will always be injury-prone, well that's a fair and reasonable concern. But judging him by his point totals would be unfair to the kid -- he still has upside to make it as a productive NHL forward.

His point totals are good. There's nothing wrong with them - he got lucky his rookie AHL season, he was getting unlucky this year. Maybe injuries have kept him out of the NHL. It's just this sort of player has a lot of hoops to jump through to become an NHL regular.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Saying Merkley still has top 6 potential would be a stretch, but he always had and still has bottom to middle 6 potential. There’s no reason to write off his NHL potential.

Agreed, wholeheartedly! Merkley is competitive and smart and is a plus-passer. The only thing which has held Merkley back is injuries. If the kid stays healthy, there's no reason to believe he won't carve out a productive career in the NHL.

 

[My3Sons]

Agreed, wholeheartedly! Merkley is competitive and smart and is a plus-passer. The only thing which has held Merkley back is injuries. If the kid stays healthy, there's no reason to believe he won't carve out a productive career in the NHL.

Who is more likely to create offense in the NHL between Merkley ANDERSON and BASTIAN?

 

[JimEIV]

Like many draft writers, I was very high on Nick Merkley in his draft year of 2015. Despite having only average tools go size/skating/shooting, Merkley tallied 92 points and an eye-popping 70 assists for Kelowna of the WHL in his draft year, shining due to his terrific vision, smarts and compete level. Unfortunately, in the half-decade since he was drafted, Merkley has had surgery after surgery due to major injury after major injury. I hold out hope that Merkley can still forge out a successful NHL career as a gritty, mid-6 F who makes his linemates better -- maybe a 40 to 5o point guy. If he can stay out of the trainer's room, Merkley can certainly make the team out of camp next season.

I really like Bahl -- most of the people who read me on the Devils threads know I highly value physical, shut-down defensemen, and Bahl's rare combination of immense size, very good skating and high intelligence makes him a potential defensive force. His upside is certainly in the ballpark of Colton Parayko, and we all saw how valuable that type of player is during the St. Louis Blues' Stanley Cup championship run last spring.

Colton Parayko was the top scoring Defenseman every year he played at Fairbanks. Parayko is much more agile and seems much more athletic to me.... aside from height I think that is a poor comparison. More Mike Commadore than Colton Parayko.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Colton Parayko was the top scoring Defenseman every year he played at Fairbanks. Parayko is much more agile and seems much more athletic to me.... aside from height I think that is a poor comparison. More Mike Commadore than Colton Parayko.

Knocking our own guys is your thing, unless they were drafted by Lou in 1986.

I’ll take the word of a guy who’s job is to watch prospects on a daily basis over some who heard of Bahl a couple of days after we acquired him.

 

[MadDevil]

Okay Jim, how about a bigger, more physical Jon Merrill?

 

[JimEIV]

Okay Jim, how about a bigger, more physical Jon Merrill?

No where near the skater Merrill was at the same point. He looks like a worse skating Santini in terms of style and Santini was much better defensively as an 18 and 19 year old than Bahl ...or more like an Adam MQuad for an overall recent comparable. Bahl's OHL numbers look similar to McQuad's too...Bahl's are better but there are similarities especially in their draft year.

I've read in most places that Bahl's skating is above average to good... it's just not true...it doesn't appear to be Dylan McIlrath bad but it's far good. Lumbering is the best word I can find in my lexicon. His first step is slow as is his overall agility I think in a best case scenario you are looking at a player that is trending like a McQuad or Orpik...but Parayko? Not a chance.... I'd eat my hat if Bahl ever had 35 points in the NHL. The only way Bahl puts up points with his style of play is if he has an amazingly gifted offensive D partner on a high scoring offensive team...in a way Orpik put up 25 points in Pittsburgh.

From my perspective Bahl's bread and butter is going to be his defensive game coupled with a physical element...niethet of which seem to be at a standout level at this point.

I wouldn't expect much in terms of production. His path will very much be determined by how well he plays in his own zone.... That's a tough path... while sound, no standout shutdown defensive ability, at best average skating and little to no offensive ability. Not sure where you can go from there.

I would expect to see Bahl in the AHL all of next year, perhaps if Ottawa's season ends sooner we might see him in Binghamton for a few this year? When the speed goes to the next level that will tell us a lot more in terms of his defensive game...When I do get a chance to see him live I'd baseline him against a 2013 Seth Helgeson in terms of skating and defensive ability from a first year pro... although Helgeson"s did 4 years in the NCAA before turning Pro, it's still a good measuring stick in my mind to determine potential. Or maybe even a 2011 Urbom as a measurement as that might be a more comparable of two coming out of the CHL but I think Urbom was more offensively gifted so it is not the best measurement in my mind...but that's how I like to do it. I think of similar style player that I have personally seen live and first determine "better or worse". If better then more exploration...if worse don't really care. It has served me pretty well over the last 35 or 40 years of watching players transition to pro hockey. Mostly NCAA players though.

 

[Nubmer6]

No where near the skater Merrill was at the same point. He looks like a worse skating Santini in terms of style and Santini was much better defensively as an 18 and 19 year old than Bahl ...or more like an Adam MQuad for an overall recent comparable. Bahl's OHL numbers look similar to McQuad's too...Bahl's are better but there are similarities especially in their draft year.

I've read in most places that Bahl's skating is above average to good... it's just not true...it doesn't appear to be Dylan McIlrath bad but it's far good. Lumbering is the best word I can find in my lexicon. His first step is slow as is his overall agility I think in a best case scenario you are looking at a player that is trending like a McQuad or Orpik...but Parayko? Not a chance.... I'd eat my hat if Bahl ever had 35 points in the NHL. The only way Bahl puts up points with his style of play is if he has an amazingly gifted offensive D partner on a high scoring offensive team...in a way Orpik put up 25 points in Pittsburgh.

From my perspective Bahl's bread and butter is going to be his defensive game coupled with a physical element...niethet of which seem to be at a standout level at this point.

I wouldn't expect much in terms of production. His path will very much be determined by how well he plays in his own zone.... That's a tough path... while sound, no standout shutdown defensive ability, at best average skating and little to no offensive ability. Not sure where you can go from there.

I would expect to see Bahl in the AHL all of next year, perhaps if Ottawa's season ends sooner we might see him in Binghamton for a few this year? When the speed goes to the next level that will tell us a lot more in terms of his defensive game...When I do get a chance to see him live I'd baseline him against a 2013 Seth Helgeson in terms of skating and defensive ability from a first year pro... although Helgeson"s did 4 years in the NCAA before turning Pro, it's still a good measuring stick in my mind to determine potential. Or maybe even a 2011 Urbom as a measurement as that might be a more comparable of two coming out of the CHL but I think Urbom was more offensively gifted so it is not the best measurement in my mind...but that's how I like to do it. I think of similar style player that I have personally seen live and first determine "better or worse". If better then more exploration...if worse don't really care. It has served me pretty well over the last 35 or 40 years of watching players transition to pro hockey. Mostly NCAA players though.

In my limited viewings of him (and limited experience watching prospects), I agree with the skating. I've seen a few articles touting his skating, so it surprised me when I watched him that he looked looked somewhat awkward and lumbering. It could be that that's the way larger players look when they skate. Someone that size could look slow while moving fast. Either way, to me he didn't look like someone that was touted as a "very good skater not only for his size, but overall". I really hope I'm wrong.

 

[Mike27Devils]

I’m not sure if anyone knows this answer but what if Coyotes somehow miss the playoffs and win the lottery (pick is top 3 protected). Do we automatically get their 2021 first round pick or are we just screwed?

 

[longislanddevil]

I’m not sure if anyone knows this answer but what if Coyotes somehow miss the playoffs and win the lottery (pick is top 3 protected). Do we automatically get their 2021 first round pick or are we just screwed?

If the Coyotes win a lottery ball, we get their 2021 first round pick...and then, let’s hope they win one again.

 

[Nubmer6]

I’m not sure if anyone knows this answer but what if Coyotes somehow miss the playoffs and win the lottery (pick is top 3 protected). Do we automatically get their 2021 first round pick or are we just screwed?

We'd get their 2021 1st and it wouldn't be lottery protected. Getting that lottery pick is probably the best, but most unlikely outcome.

 

[longislanddevil]

I know it’s been debated ad nauseam but just one more time- the most feasible outcome that would be favorable for the Devils is Arizona missing the playoffs and finishing between 11 and 13. While there’s little chance a Rossi/Raymond/Perfetti fall to this range, every year a player drops a bit (often due to question marks on size of the player). One would think the recent success of guys like DeBrincat would reinforce the notion that smaller players can be stars in today’s NHL. However, there are still plenty of GMs who shy away from undersized prospects. Despite being on the smaller side, Rossi’s stock has risen so much that I sadly don’t see him sliding. “Polarizing” is too strong a word to describe Lucas Raymond but there is certainly divisiveness out there now since he hasn’t put up the gaudy stats this year (reasons have been documented by other posters). Perhaps some teams inexplicably pass on him even if he’s available in the 8–10 range? Not likely, I know. It would be a dream scenario if one of these guys were available for the Devils with the Arizona pick. In my estimation, right now there is a clear tier drop off in talent after the first 8 or 9 players. While it’s typically prudent to collect as many assets as possible in a rebuild, this would be a unique situation in which I strongly believe it would behoove the Devils to explore moving up 4-5 spots for the 7th or 8th pick. Does anyone know what the cost of doing so historically looks like?

 

[Guttersniped]

Arizona is mostly likely not missing the playoffs and I doubt they plunge into a top ten pick. Don’t overestimate a weak Western conference.

 

[GameSeven]

I know it’s been debated ad nauseam but just one more time- the most feasible outcome that would be favorable for the Devils is Arizona missing the playoffs and finishing between 11 and 13. While there’s little chance a Rossi/Raymond/Perfetti fall to this range, every year a player drops a bit (often due to question marks on size of the player). One would think the recent success of guys like DeBrincat would reinforce the notion that smaller players can be stars in today’s NHL. However, there are still plenty of GMs who shy away from undersized prospects. Despite being on the smaller side, Rossi’s stock has risen so much that I sadly don’t see him sliding. “Polarizing” is too strong a word to describe Lucas Raymond but there is certainly divisiveness out there now since he hasn’t put up the gaudy stats this year (reasons have been documented by other posters). Perhaps some teams inexplicably pass on him even if he’s available in the 8–10 range? Not likely, I know. It would be a dream scenario if one of these guys were available for the Devils with the Arizona pick. In my estimation, right now there is a clear tier drop off in talent after the first 8 or 9 players. While it’s typically prudent to collect as many assets as possible in a rebuild, this would be a unique situation in which I strongly believe it would behoove the Devils to explore moving up 4-5 spots for the 7th or 8th pick. Does anyone know what the cost of doing so historically looks like?

Minimum to make that move would probably be a high second. Possibly a late first (or similar value) if moving as much as 5 spots and if the dropping team saw this as falling out of a tier.

Last year the Flyers traded pick #11 for picks #14 and #45.

 

[Guttersniped]

When I do get a chance to see him live I'd baseline him against a 2013 Seth Helgeson in terms of skating and defensive ability from a first year pro... although Helgeson"s did 4 years in the NCAA before turning Pro, it's still a good measuring stick in my mind to determine potential.

I don’t think comparing a 23 year old Helgeson with four years of college against a 20 year old Bahl straight out of juniors is exactly fair but you do you I guess.

I’d also point to how Bahl’s offense is trending up since his draft while Seth had one point in 31 games D+1. Bahl is always talking about working on his skating, so it’s hopefully going to continue to improve.

I’m not a huge fan of how Shero decided to hyper focus on physical shutdown defensemen in the last draft and then go after Bahl on top of that. However, it’s impossible to guess how good our scouts are at picking shut down guys with the talent to succeed at higher levels right now. It will take several years see how this group pans out but just because you throw a bunch a darts doesn’t mean you hit a bullseye.

I don’t get why we didn’t pick up a more offensive dman in that draft, I would like more depth than just Smith and Walsh. I assume we’ll grab one in the this draft first round and that should help quite a bit.

It is what it is, Ray went to heavy on forwards at first and had one pick in the first three rounds in 2018, our defensive prospect pool needed an influx and it got one. I’m looking forward to seeing the first batch of dmen prospects but patience is needed, none of these guys can be dismissed as the next Seth Helgeson before they’re old enough to legally drink.

 

[longislanddevil]

Minimum to make that move would probably be a high second. Possibly a late first (or similar value) if moving as much as 5 spots and if the dropping team saw this as falling out of a tier.

Last year the Flyers traded pick #11 for picks #14 and #45.

Thanks for so much for the reply and bringing that trade to my attention; I completely forgot about it. I thought that was a terrible deal for Arizona from a value standpoint. While the Coyotes reportedly had Soderstrom as the 3rd ranked player on their board, I tend to believe he would have been available at 14. No disrespect intended towards the kid but talk about a team over-ranking a player. I didn’t see many, if any, mock drafts from scouting experts that had Soderstrom even as a top 10 pick!! Working the draft is a science and they whiffed here IMHO. I can respect being aggressive to get “your guy” but pick 45 to move up just 3 spots for Soderstrom? Yikes. That isn’t an indictment on Soderstrom as he may very well turn out to be a quality NHL d-man. Just seems like a waste of an asset for a kid they could have had at 14. If memory serves me correctly, I don’t recall a significant tier drop off from 11-14 so the Flyers did really well (and presumably still got the defenseman they wanted in Cam York). Obviously the Coyotes viewed this differently.

Any other trades we can reference as comps for moving 4-5 picks from 11 or 12 to 7 or 8, guys?

 

[GameSeven]

Thanks for so much for the reply and bringing that trade to my attention; I completely forgot about it. I thought that was a terrible deal for Arizona from a value standpoint. While the Coyotes reportedly had Soderstrom as the 3rd ranked player on their board, I tend to believe he would have been available at 14. No disrespect intended towards the kid but talk about a team over-ranking a player. I didn’t see many, if any, mock drafts from scouting experts that had Soderstrom even as a top 10 pick!! Working the draft is a science and they whiffed here IMHO. I can respect being aggressive to get “your guy” but pick 45 to move up just 3 spots for Soderstrom? Yikes. That isn’t an indictment on Soderstrom as he may very well turn out to be a quality NHL d-man. Just seems like a waste of an asset for a kid they could have had at 14. If memory serves me correctly, I don’t recall a significant tier drop off from 11-14 so the Flyers did really well (and presumably still got the defenseman they wanted in Cam York). Obviously the Coyotes viewed this differently.

Any other trades we can reference as comps for moving 4-5 picks from 11 or 12 to 7 or 8, guys?

IIRC, @Brodeur usually has among the best handles on the history of these sorts of deals, although its probably a conversation best continued in the draft thread.

Also, it's probably very premature as it relies on AZ plummeting as well as the fact that NJD has no second nor third round picks this year. Given the state of the needs of this team, I still think accruing more assets is more important than using some to move up a few spots.

 

[Brodeur]

Any other trades we can reference as comps for moving 4-5 picks from 11 or 12 to 7 or 8, guys?

Tougher part of the equation might be finding somebody willing to trade down. I vaguely recall reading that Florida tried to trade up from #11 in 2015 for Mikko Rantanen but nobody wanted to risk moving down.

But just a couple comparables off the top of my head:

2005: Atlanta traded #8 to San Jose for #12, #49, and #207. That was the one draft I never was able to watch since the NHL didn't have a TV deal coming out of the lockout and NHL Network wasn't offered on my cable at the time. I do remember my Sharks buddy texting me (heck, might have been an AOL Instant Messenger conversation) that the Sharks had just traded up and he was excited that they were about to pick Anze Kopitar. Sharks ended up taking Devin Setoguchi. Atlanta would trade down a second time but didn't end up with much.

2007: St. Louis traded #9 to San Jose for #13, #44, and a future 3rd rounder. The Blues unsuccessfully tried to trade up for Jakub Voracek who went #7 to Columbus; The team posted a behind the scenes video after that draft and they offered #9 and #24 to Edmonton for #6 but the Oilers declined. In the moment, most thought there was a tier drop after 6 or 7 depending on how you felt about Alexei Cherepanov (RIP).

The next guy on the Blues' list was Lars Eller; They figured they could move down and still get him. The Sharks got Logan Couture and at the time the trade seemed a little unnecessary since Couture was listed lower in most of the rankings but as it turned out Florida was planning on taking Couture at #10.

 

[Blackjack]

Thanks for so much for the reply and bringing that trade to my attention; I completely forgot about it. I thought that was a terrible deal for Arizona from a value standpoint. While the Coyotes reportedly had Soderstrom as the 3rd ranked player on their board, I tend to believe he would have been available at 14. No disrespect intended towards the kid but talk about a team over-ranking a player. I didn’t see many, if any, mock drafts from scouting experts that had Soderstrom even as a top 10 pick!! Working the draft is a science and they whiffed here IMHO. I can respect being aggressive to get “your guy” but pick 45 to move up just 3 spots for Soderstrom? Yikes. That isn’t an indictment on Soderstrom as he may very well turn out to be a quality NHL d-man. Just seems like a waste of an asset for a kid they could have had at 14. If memory serves me correctly, I don’t recall a significant tier drop off from 11-14 so the Flyers did really well (and presumably still got the defenseman they wanted in Cam York). Obviously the Coyotes viewed this differently.

Any other trades we can reference as comps for moving 4-5 picks from 11 or 12 to 7 or 8, guys?

There's a big difference between the 11th pick, and the 7th or 8th pick, especially in this draft. Back in the early 2000's trades around the top of the draft were common as teams jockeyed for position and tried to figure out if the guy they wanted would be available at a lower slot. Those kinds of trades have become rare, and I'd be surprised if a top 8 pick has been traded in the last 10 years.

GMs are much more afraid of risk nowadays. Look at how Mike Milbury was (rightly) ridiculed for how he handled New York's drafts back in the day. So now they prefer to pick their guy and shrug their shoulders if he busts, rather than have to explain why they traded a pick that became a star.

Anyway, the only way we can trade up to 7 or 8 is if we have 9 or 10, and even that will probably cost another 1st (let's assume we get one for Vatanen), or multiple 2nd round picks (again, that we would have to get in a trade.) We will not be able to vault 4-5 picks, it will not happen.