Post-Game Talk: #51 | FLYERS (H) vs. Devils (A) | Saturday, May, 1, 2021 | Loss 4-1

[Beef Invictus]

We will be next year unless Hart has completely gone South.
Last six years the bad years are when the goalies went belly up. I mean bottom five bad, this year worst in the NHL by a wide margin.

We will upgrade Elliott and add a RHD.
Don't really need to do much more than get healthy and make this season a distant memory.
If AV doesn't turn it around, there will be a new HC by January.

This RHD is going to be a downgrade on Ghost, almost assuredly.


Oh boy, Hart bounces back and we get to be treated to another playoff failure. Just like always.

 

[TB87]

This is a wild split for Jackson Cates....

5v5 Score & Venue Adjusted Shot-Based Metrics:
CF%: 42.94
xGF%: 58.66

 

[deadhead]

This RHD is going to be a downgrade on Ghost, almost assuredly.


Oh boy, Hart bounces back and we get to be treated to another playoff failure. Just like always.

What has Ghost actually done other than decent but nothing special metrics?
9 ES points in 38 games, 8 PP points.
That's not exactly irreplaceable.

A RHD who's a good fit with Provorov solidifies the top four, I expect Sanheim and Myers to play better.
York/Zamula, Braun, Hagg and any upgrade you want on the third pair as long as it's cheap.

Goalie is where this team's fate resides, average goalies and they're a 100+ point team, top five goalies and they're a SC contender.

 

[WIP CALLER]

Player A: GA/60 2.8 GF/60 3.0, 10.8 oiSH%, 90.1 oiSA% at even strength. Power play 7.1 GF/60

45% offensive zone starts EV


Player B: GA/60 3.1 GF/60 2.8, 9.4 oiSH %, 88.0 oiSA% at even strength, Power play GF/60 5.0

54.2% offensive zone starts EV



Player A is no longer the best defenseman on the team though while player B should apparently be up for comeback player of the year for how "great" he's been.

 

[Striiker]

Ghost should be protected over Myers. He’s done nothing to deserve it and it’s doubtful he’d get claimed anyways.

Then maybe we should do whatever it takes to find a LD to play with Ghost and give us at least two good pairs, along with Sanheim’s.

 

[Beef Invictus]

What has Ghost actually done other than decent but nothing special metrics?
9 ES points in 38 games, 8 PP points.
That's not exactly irreplaceable.

A RHD who's a good fit with Provorov solidifies the top four, I expect Sanheim and Myers to play better.
York/Zamula, Braun, Hagg and any upgrade you want on the third pair as long as it's cheap.

Goalie is where this team's fate resides, average goalies and they're a 100+ point team, top five goalies and they're a SC contender.

You're presenting Ghost playing well as a negative or something easily dismissed. That's funny.

Also interesting that it's such a monumental challenge to find someone to pair with Provorov. That he's so very dependent on having a very specific partner is a red flag.

 

[Striiker]

GF/60 and GA/60 is like using +/-, since it’s heavily affected by on-ice shooting % and the goalies save %. In other words, it’s just looking at the end results, not the process.

Swing and a miss.

Also, for the record, it’s not “no longer the best defensemen on the team”. Provorov never was

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

GF/60 and GA/60 is like using +/-, since it’s heavily affected by on-ice shooting % and the goalies save %. Just looking at the end results, not the process.

Swing and a miss.

Also, for the record, it’s not “no longer the best defensemen on the team”. Provorov never was.

never? I don’t buy that. He was terrible this season. There is no getting around that. But never? I disagree

 

[WIP CALLER]

So ghost is the best defenseman on the team "because striker says so with his own eyes"

 

[Striiker]

never? I don’t buy that. He was terrible this season. There is no getting around that. But never? I disagree

Just to be 100% clear, I’m not saying he’s never been good. I just think the whole “Provorov is our #1” argument is all hope and stereotypes, not reality.

-This year is obvious.
-Last year he was behind Sanheim and Niskanen
-The year before that Provorov had another bad year and Sanheim was our best.
-The year before that it was Ghost
-And then the only other year is his rookie year, which I guess would be his best argument for being the best. Although that’s kinda by default since it was the year Ghost and Giroux were recovering from surgery. Not sure if he was actually the best there anyways... I don’t remember that season too well, honestly.

 

[TB87]

Sweet, sweet revisionist history yo:

 

[Striiker]

So ghost is the best defenseman on the team "because striker says so with his own eyes"

The stats say he and Sanheim have been the best too.

Just not the ones you ignorantly cherry-picked. Sorry

 

[FlyTimmo]

The stats say he and Sanheim have been the best too.

Just not the ones you ignorantly cherry-picked. Sorry

Not only cherrypicked, but some are wrong.

 

[Striiker]

Not only cherrypicked, but some are wrong.

Even better.

I wonder if that was an accident or he was hoping people wouldn’t notice.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

GF/60 and GA/60 is like using +/-, since it’s heavily affected by on-ice shooting % and the goalies save %. In other words, it’s just looking at the end results, not the process

Please understand I’m not talking about the Flyers here. My goal is to not even think about them again until the summer. I just want to see metrics used well.

If we’re splitting out GF and GA and comparing them to shot-based metrics to determine what we shorthand as luck, we need to understand what is generally repeatable and what is not.

The most important bit here is that in a single season type sample, only GF is heavily influenced by an individual player and typically only by Forwards. Can Defensemen have an impact on teammates’ finishing? Absolutely. It’s just not nearly as pronounced as Forwards when taken at scale. If you ignore the math and just think about it, this makes perfect sense. The player taking the high value Shots and the player making the last Pass before the high value Shots have the most influence on their outcome when taken over a large sample size. Most often, those are Forwards.

GA gets more complicated, but the key is that the measurable effect of any Skater on opposition’s Finishing ability is not of comparable impact.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Even better.

I wonder if that was an accident or he was hoping people wouldn’t notice.

Either that or some strange rounding.

 

[deadhead]

My point is we're going to lose a player in the ED, Ghost's actual production (metrics are predictive) isn't so great that there will be a gaping hole in the lineup. I'm not claiming he's played badly, just that his absence wouldn't have a big impact on this team going forward - this is not the Ghost of three years ago.

Nor is there reason to think he's going to make some big jump next year, and durability will always be an issue with him.

There is no way I protect Ghost over Myers, Ghost is the better player NOW, but he's also more expensive and we have two young LHDs with a similar skill set (York, Zamula). We have no one (maybe Attard, in 2-3 years IF we sign him) with Myers' skill set.

Now if Seattle wants to take Voracek or JVR, then Ghost can slot into the 3rd pair nicely and PP1 QB next year.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Just to be 100% clear, I’m not saying he’s never been good. I just think the whole “Provorov is our #1” argument is all hope and stereotypes, not reality.

-This year is obvious.
-Last year he was behind Sanheim and Niskanen
-The year before that Provorov had another bad year and Sanheim was our best.
-The year before that it was Ghost
-And then the only other year is his rookie year, which I guess would be his best argument for being the best. Although that’s kinda by default since it was the year Ghost and Giroux were recovering from surgery. Not sure if he was actually the best there anyways... I don’t remember that season too well, honestly.

agree to disagree

 

[renberg]

Ghost should be protected over Myers

Not going to happen. Myers is bigger with a healthier resume. Ghost will be a goner unless Fletcher bribes Seattle into taking Jake or JVR. I shudder to think what it would cost to get them to take Jake. JVR has some value but he’s expensive.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Seattle could take JVR and flip him with salary retention. Flyers cannot afford to do that but Seattle likely can

 

[04hockey]

My point is we're going to lose a player in the ED, Ghost's actual production (metrics are predictive) isn't so great that there will be a gaping hole in the lineup. I'm not claiming he's played badly, just that his absence wouldn't have a big impact on this team going forward - this is not the Ghost of three years ago.

Nor is there reason to think he's going to make some big jump next year, and durability will always be an issue with him.

There is no way I protect Ghost over Myers, Ghost is the better player NOW, but he's also more expensive and we have two young LHDs with a similar skill set (York, Zamula). We have no one (maybe Attard, in 2-3 years IF we sign him) with Myers' skill set.

Now if Seattle wants to take Voracek or JVR, then Ghost can slot into the 3rd pair nicely and PP1 QB next year.

just what is Myers skill set ?

 

[renberg]

just what is Myers skill set ?

Don’t evaluate him off of what you’ve seen from him this year. His play has regressed but he’s better than that. He’s had a couple of tough injuries this season. Then there is the coaching and defensive schemes or lack there of that need to be considered. No doubt that he’s had his share of growing pains but that’s what young guys do.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Myers was good last year. This year not so much. I am not ready to give up on him but I get why he may be dangled in front of Seattle

 

[Redpath]

I'm sure it has been discussed already, but how truly embarrassingly low that we've resorted to these kinds of gimmicks. Isn't anyone, be it in Hockey Ops or the broader departments of the organization, embarrassed by this? This is like our Jump The Shark moment

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

I'm sure it has been discussed already, but how truly embarrassingly low that we've resorted to these kinds of gimmicks. Isn't anyone, be it in Hockey Ops or the broader departments of the organization, embarrassed by this? This is like our Jump The Shark moment

Gritty is the monster that reigns over the rubble that used to be our kingdom, and Taryn is his queen.