2021 Offseason Thread | 2022 Roster Speculation Part III

[Zapp]

Mail it in for Michkov

Good to see the boys on board with drafting my son over Bedard

 

[BG44]

Do you think the guy that runs both accounts just opens up another tab to respond to his own tweet or do you think he fully suits up as Victor E. Green to get in character?

 

[BG44]

That could explain the 50 minute difference between the tweets ... it's probably not easy putting that thing on.

 

[Captain Awesome]

no, that assumes everyone has the same starting point. have you looked at the bankrupt bs the stars as an organization had become?

Fair, it was not a great starting point. To be honest, I think that was mostly because the drafting was crap, the cap situation was completely fine. Again though, we are years away from this being a legitimate excuse at this point. We just iced a cap team (+~$1M) that didn't make the playoffs

how many teams have been a perennial contender for the last nine years? how many a constant playoff threat?

Not very many, but I meant that AFTER 9 years, we should be in a spot where we are that. We have never been that at any point. That is a more than fair amount of time to build a good team.

don't dismiss the fact that drafting has improved.. the ability of an organization to learn and change is massive and rare. also, those acquisitions aren't terrible, i'd contend they're actually more than half way decent bargain bin hunting. cogs on the other hand... but, anyway, goalies are voodoo. and you can't argue that he recognized it as a weakness and tried anything and everything to fix it.as for signing UFAs, it's such bs. every FA signing you can go to 15 other boards and find ppl bitching that their GM didn't sign so and so. it's just not always an option, and if you money whipped every ufa to sign with you, you'd be fired for cap mismanagement.

I'm not all the way there with the drafting, this is going to be a difference of opinion for many people here, but the Wyatt Johnston thing is just a symptom of the same stupid things we've done with several first round picks in my mind. In a league where drafting is the most important thing you can do well, you don't get to mess it up this many times. I'm happy that the process is getting better, but as the drafting is getting better, the rest of his job has been heavily lacking. You need it to be good all at once, or there's no way you're making any headway in the NHL.

how much of that is nill, and how much is TG? remember, there's only so much nill can control, be it an owner or the interest in a free agent signing here. and omg.. are you really going to penalize him for a coach that was forced on him (hitch) and a coach that dove into the bottle? (monty)
as for trades, it's lovely how you assume that whatever ps4 trade you can come up with would be accepted by other gms. or even comparing similar, 'value.' there are sooooo many more variables in this equation that the number the draft pick is or the dollar sign.

There are so many unanswered questions about Monty's time in Dallas around the alcoholism. Personally, I am fine with that, because the last thing the guy needs for his recovery is to get hounded by the media, but no one has stopped to ask if this was preventable. We'll never know the answer, but he wasn't with the team that long. Did Nill do his due diligence here before the hiring? That's really the only question I've ever had. As for Bones, hiring him on as our full time coach felt like a crazy idea. He was part of a fun playoff run, that I don't really think you can heavily credit him for. I think he would have been fine going back to being an assistant, and hiring on someone who might have ideas that weren't developed when the USSR was still a thing. I think his regular season had a lot of questionable decision making, but again, that's a matter of opinion. I think giving him that spot without doing a really thorough job of who else was out there was a disservice.

i'm with you on a dedicated analytics dept. i will however point out that we've doubled the roles at least so far as titles are concerned.. from 1 to 2 lol. but again, that's not just a gm decision, it involves ownership, and who knows how those convos go.

I won't really pretend to know exactly what those guys get up to, but they aren't full time on analytics. I remember hitch mentioning he contracted out some analytics work to a third party and got information back. I don't really think the Stars take analytics seriously at all. Especially when one of those two hires is your classic nepotism hire.

if you have someone who's in the top half (16 teams) and you only have 5 'good' gms in the league, how do you propose that it's a good bet to get someone in that 6-15 range? especially when you're canning one?

You aren't going to win with the 6-15 that are out there now, so you find the next actually good GM. How? I don't know, I'm not paid money to figure out who the good ones are. None of us have enough information to make such a determination, but I am absolutely sure that person is out there. I know because there has to be someone smarter than Jim Benning or Ken Holland that you can hire that hasn't been hired yet. To be honest, I think the NHL is more like 5 guys who really know what they're doing , 20ish guys that are ok at their jobs, but will likely never win a cup without lucking into some seriously good players, and another 5 who are just absolute frauds, your Jim Bennings and Ken Hollands of the world. I suspect after some of the moves we've been seeing, Stan Bowman might be joining this club in short order. That's the other fun thing, Holland has been at both ends of this list, and probably so has Bowman. I think it's fair to say Nill had a really impressive first couple of years at GM, but his drafting was abysmal, and it probably cost this team a true shot at being a powerhouse. Then the guys who we acquired got too old or too expensive, and we had to spend a ton of cap to cover up the drafting shortfalls that good players on ELCs and bridge contracts should have covered.



this is all so simple in a vacuum, but there are sooo many points of information that we don't see. and what we see on nill that can't be explained elsewhere points to some pretty good traits. be very, very, careful what you wish for.. especially considering TG's penchant for stepping in.

GMs are also not an island, the things I judge Nill harshly on are not getting different hockey people around him. It's crazy how status quo our scouting team has been over the years, for example, or that Les Jackson still works here. Tim Bernhardt got fired for drafting Jack Campbell, and McDonnell should have been after his first few drafts here. One day some of us will be saying, "Remember that one time we drafted a guy in the top 10 who couldn't even lift a puck?" But really, I scratch my head at our front office, some of these guys have been here since before the bankruptcy. This team has sucked at drafting since I was a child.


anyway, if it's not obvious, i have a bit of a soft spot for those in upper management. everyone thinks it's so simple and clear cut. it's not. you have good people that do good things in places, but it's not always recognized. you have marginal people that do good things and bad things, and they aren't always recognized. you have bad people that somehow fly under the radar, and it takes entirely too long to ferret them out. you're never going to make the perfect decisions, you can only work from principles and process and a vision. the biggest keys to me are learning from mistakes, and being willing to change.

i won't defend nill's every move. but i won't lacerate him as some clueless idiot when he's clearly in the top half of 32 positions available in the world at what he does. the guy's not a moron.

I don't think he's a moron, but I also absolutely positively do not think that hockey is some meritocracy. Like all sports, it's really more about who you know more than what you know. Kyle Dubas doesn't get so much attention just because he's in Toronto, for example, he gets a lot of attention because he didn't play at this level. He doesn't have any family in positions around the league. He mentions analytics and things like that in public. He's an outsider. I'm not saying we should have hired Kyle Dubas or anything, I'm just saying that it's f***ing weird that the sport's GMs are filled with guys who played in the NHL. It's a bit like needing a stapler in the next room, but there's tape right next to you, so you're just going to use that. By that I mean, guys are chosen because they are close to the game, not necessarily because they are tactical strategic geniuses. Ken Hitchcock never really played pro hockey, that didn't seem to stop him from being one of the best coaches of the last few decades.

i didn't even get into the class with which he's operated. navigating 'f***ing bullshit' and monty's trip down the bottle? the multiple reports of veterans saying they were interested in coming here bc they can trust the way he'll handle things? those actually count in the long view, which is one you expect a gm to take.

good grief. that was too much work over freaking hockey. i'm done, keep on keeping on

 

[eartotheground]

actually, don't think we're that far apart.

i think i'd add that they did admit to doing due diligence on monty, although, clearly it wasn't enough, or those types of things just can't be predicted. my ex is an abusive alcoholic, and i have some strong opinions in that area, so as biased as i am, i'm probably not the right person to judge.

one area we differ though is those 9 years. in spite of walking into a shit situation, in spite of a coach going to hell, and in spite of a coach seemingly forced on him by the owner, he managed a SCF, 2 WCFs, and was an OT breath away from taking down st. louis in their championship year. there are a lot of teams without those headwinds that wish they had accomplished as much.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Theoretically, Suter could sign a $16 million contract for 4 years paying him $4 million in each year with no signing bonus other than in Year 1, and it would not be a 35+ contract.

A buyout would cost $1,333,333 per year over twice the remaining term.

Interestingly enough if a player signs a multi year contract over the age of 35 and is bought out there is no cap relief. Learned this last year with Patrick Marleau

Buyout FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[BG44]

Interestingly enough if a player signs a multi year contract over the age of 35 and is bought out there is no cap relief. Learned this last year with Patrick Marleau

Buyout FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Read the post before what you quoted. It uses the same source you used. I just learned this today as well from them, but a 35+ contract doesn't just require the player to be 35 or older like I always assumed.

CapFriendly on their FAQ page said that it also must either be front-loaded or have a bonus paid after Year 1 or the rule doesn't apply.

 

[BG44]

Oh actually ... the exact same information is in the link you also posted.

A buyout of a 35+ contract that is two years in length or longer and:

1. Has a signing bonus in the 2nd or later year, OR
2. Is front-loaded

 

[kabidjan18]

I get that #FireNill can be a popular and annoying opinion at times. The sense I get from the vast majority of people on here is this.

1) Dallas is a playoff contender right now as constructed. They're potentially a contender for the West, but at least personally I think there are teams ahead of them on that list.

2)Nill is a big part of where they are.

3) This exact team minus Janmark and Oleksiak and plus Robertson ... were vastly outplayed by Tampa Bay, the true contender. TB will get marginally weaker this year at the bottom of the roster, but they also draft well and have young prospects to fill in who have been waiting for this opportunity.

4) The idea that Dallas needs more than a Top 4 defender to truly be competitive is fairly conservative.

Now I'm not sure if this opinion is widely held, but there is exactly one scenario where the removal of Nill makes sense to me, and IMO would be imperative. If Dallas sits on its ass hoping that young guys step up and veterans don't fall off more and they're 4th or lower in the Division and 6th or lower in the Conference come January .... I have no confidence in Nill's ability to manage the trade deadline. Ownership should step in and let White run the deadline, and then you figure out if White or someone else is the GM moving forward.

On 2 different occasions, Nill chose to not make a decision at the TDL when they were in that position and proceed to miss the playoffs. I think that a 3rd time would be inexcusable. You have to make a choice. You either add, which wouldn't be my preference, and actually help the team get in, or you sell. Staying put may have been more reasonable in past years, but it would franchise altering in a negative way in 2022.

Tampa wasn't a "true contender", they were a 2 time champ. They're also not getting "marginally weaker", they're losing potentially Gourde, Johnson, Goodrow, Coleman and even Savard. Your bottom 6 plays 40-45% of the game so losing the skeletal structure of your bottom 6 is extremely detrimental. They had their so-called superstars for many years and got nowhere prior to the trade deadline where they picked up Goodrow and Coleman. Now, I think they have the best defense in the league, so as long as that remains the case they will be solid contenders, but I think it's an inaccurate characterization of the situation.

You don't build your team to beat the theory of how good one team will be, you build your team to be the best team that you can be. I guarantee you neither Nill nor any other GM in the league is or should be thinking "how do we theoretically stack up against the 'true contender' Tampa team?"

Nill is also not going to get fired any time soon because he literally built a Stanley Cup contending team last year. And I know some people will always ignorantly bleat "but they didn't win! so they sucked! anyone who doesn't win sucks!" One team out of, now 32 teams, wins the cup every year. There are teams that haven't won the cup for decades, there are teams that haven't won a playoff round for decades. One lucky team hasn't made the playoffs in a decade. Winning the cup is the optimal result, it's what GMs aim for certainly, but no GM will ever be shamed at a performance review for a finals appearance because the reality is that people know the statistical likelihood of winning a cup or even winning a playoff round is low, and so teams that do so are above average performers.

 

[BG44]

The point was I agreed that any talk of Nill getting fired was premature, and I felt like he was lumping an entire conversation that wasn't being had into what was being discussed ... sort of like you're doing now missing the point and going off in another direction.

I merely acknowledged a hypothetical where I could see him in the hot seat beyond that because it actually pertained to what was being discussed AND I was trying to be honest that my neutrality on Nill had started to sour lately. I'm not exactly Switzerland anymore, and it was fair to acknowledge that.

The only discussion or points I made was about Dallas doing nothing beyond potentially adding a Top 4 defender and whether that was good or bad.

People fanboy of Nill so hard they come to his defense when someone is trying to steer the conversation away from Nill's job. I thought the Nill hate was more obnoxious, and it was for a while, but I definitely think we've reached the point where sycophant defenders have taken the lead on dragging down discussions.

I use to have to choose words carefully to no set off the firing squad and now it's the exact opposite.

 

[kabidjan18]

The point was I agreed that any talk of Nill getting fired was premature, and I felt like he was lumping an entire conversation that wasn't being had into what was being discussed ... sort of like you're doing now missing the point and going off in another direction.

I merely acknowledged a hypothetical where I could see him in the hot seat beyond that because it actually pertained to what was being discussed AND I was trying to be honest that my neutrality on Nill had started to sour lately. I'm not exactly Switzerland anymore, and it was fair to acknowledge that.

The only discussion or points I made was about Dallas doing nothing beyond potentially adding a Top 4 defender and whether that was good or bad.

People fanboy of Nill so hard they come to his defense when someone is trying to steer the conversation away from Nill's job. I thought the Nill hate was more obnoxious, and it was for a while, but I definitely think we've reached the point where sycophant defenders have taken the lead on dragging down discussions.

I use to have to choose words carefully to no set off the firing squad and now it's the exact opposite.

No one "fanboys" Nill, I'm pretty sure I'm the only person on this thread who doesn't want him fired right now for all the alleged past transgressions he's committed. Your "sycophant defenders" quote is literally a response to one single person disagreeing with you, if that isn't recency bias I think nothing is. Most people simply understand rationally that he won't be. And my lonesome self disagreeing with you has suddenly so incensed your ire that you're dreaming up hordes of "sycophant defenders."

In your statement you asserted that he could lose his job by January. Think for a moment about the context that we are in. The team is a year removed from a Stanley Cup Final, also made it to the second round (top 70th percentile in the league) the year prior, narrowly missed one playoff after a season heavily marred by injuries. And you're arguing that he will lose his job before the deadline. That he will be fired before we even know if we will make the playoffs or not. By the same harshness of criteria, what like 60% of the GMs in the league should lose their jobs every year.

 

[ZeHockeyFan]

actually, don't think we're that far apart.

i think i'd add that they did admit to doing due diligence on monty, although, clearly it wasn't enough, or those types of things just can't be predicted. my ex is an abusive alcoholic, and i have some strong opinions in that area, so as biased as i am, i'm probably not the right person to judge.

one area we differ though is those 9 years. in spite of walking into a shit situation, in spite of a coach going to hell, and in spite of a coach seemingly forced on him by the owner, he managed a SCF, 2 WCFs, and was an OT breath away from taking down st. louis in their championship year. there are a lot of teams without those headwinds that wish they had accomplished as much.

Point out these two WCFs appearances please. I only see the one in 2020, the same year the team went to the SCF.

 

[Captain Awesome]

actually, don't think we're that far apart.

i think i'd add that they did admit to doing due diligence on monty, although, clearly it wasn't enough, or those types of things just can't be predicted. my ex is an abusive alcoholic, and i have some strong opinions in that area, so as biased as i am, i'm probably not the right person to judge.

one area we differ though is those 9 years. in spite of walking into a shit situation, in spite of a coach going to hell, and in spite of a coach seemingly forced on him by the owner, he managed a SCF, 2 WCFs, and was an OT breath away from taking down st. louis in their championship year. there are a lot of teams without those headwinds that wish they had accomplished as much.

Uhhh, other than the SCF we have two 2nd round exits and one first round exit under Nill. Also every team deals with headwinds, and I would hardly call it walking into a shit situation. He had a team that could spend to the cap every year and enough prospects to grab Seguin. It wasn’t the best, but hardly shit.

 

[eartotheground]

Uhhh, other than the SCF we have two 2nd round exits and one first round exit under Nill. Also every team deals with headwinds, and I would hardly call it walking into a shit situation. He had a team that could spend to the cap every year and enough prospects to grab Seguin. It wasn’t the best, but hardly shit.

yeah, sorry, i was in the cocaine pile. somehow conflating the year they won the west in the regular season, then lost seguin to injury.

 

[Captain Awesome]

yeah, sorry, i was in the cocaine pile. somehow conflating the year they won the west in the regular season, then lost seguin to injury.

Nah...

No one "fanboys" Nill, I'm pretty sure I'm the only person on this thread who doesn't want him fired right now for all the alleged past transgressions he's committed. Your "sycophant defenders" quote is literally a response to one single person disagreeing with you, if that isn't recency bias I think nothing is. Most people simply understand rationally that he won't be. And my lonesome self disagreeing with you has suddenly so incensed your ire that you're dreaming up hordes of "sycophant defenders."

In your statement you asserted that he could lose his job by January. Think for a moment about the context that we are in. The team is a year removed from a Stanley Cup Final, also made it to the second round (top 70th percentile in the league) the year prior, narrowly missed one playoff after a season heavily marred by injuries. And you're arguing that he will lose his job before the deadline. That he will be fired before we even know if we will make the playoffs or not. By the same harshness of criteria, what like 60% of the GMs in the league should lose their jobs every year.

This is what the cocaine pile looks like.

 

[serp]

 

[Smelling Salt]

One of the most skilled players I have ever seen

 

[Captain Awesome]

My favorite player of all time, I consider it embarrassing that the Stars are retiring his number AFTER getting into the HHoF. He's the kind of guy whose number you retire ASAP. Man, can't believe this guy's last season in the NHL was in 08-09. I miss watching him a lot.

To this day, I'm not sure I've actually seen this man speak, apparently during post game interviews he would hide in the showers and have a cigarette instead. f***ing legend.

 

[serp]

My favorite player of all time, I consider it embarrassing that the Stars are retiring his number AFTER getting into the HHoF. He's the kind of guy whose number you retire ASAP. Man, can't believe this guy's last season in the NHL was in 08-09. I miss watching him a lot.

To this day, I'm not sure I've actually seen this man speak, apparently during post game interviews he would hide in the showers and have a cigarette instead. f***ing legend.

They had announced it before and well then the pandemic happened.

 

[Satan]

I might make the trip down for that weekend, @SwatKatz will organize the beers and provide the cannabis

 

[Zapp]

I might make the trip down for that weekend, @SwatKatz will organize the beers and provide the cannabis

i still have Tugo’s number

maybe we can meet some of the russian boyz

 

[WhoahNow]

Stars D is so stacked now:

Lindell-Klingberg
Heiskanen-Hankanpaa
Suter-Sekera

or

Lindell-Klingberg
Suter-Heiskanen
Sekera-Hankanpaa

Hanley as spare, lets Harley start in AHL and work on that defensive side.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Seems clear Nill is going for the Cup, and the kids aren't ready yet, in his eyes. Getting two solid D men to complement a pretty strong corp. I think he is trying to win more 1-0 games next year.

 

[eartotheground]

can we play the lineup card game now??

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Seems like we are basically set after a million signings. No clue what the lines are going to look like after all the additions, but I’ll put together what I’d like to see.

Robertson - Hintz - Pavelski
Kiviranta - Seguin - Radulov
Benn - Faksa - Gurianov
Raffl - Glendening - Comeau

Lindell - Heiskanen
Suter - Klingberg
Sekera - Hankypanky

Oettinger
Khudobin

We are over the cap and not sure what to do about Holtby. I understand he’ll likely play and Oettinger will be in the AHL, but still not happy about it. Also, we are cap compliant to start the season, but that changes if Bishop comes off LTIR. Not really sure what to do about Faksa either as he sticks out like a sore thumb on that line.