Considering how ever many games the Blues play in the post season, the expansion draft decisions probably shouldn't change much.
Assuming the Blues follow the 7F - 3D - 1G Format, I think the forwards that are locks to be protected are:
90, 57, 18, 25
I'm betting good money 10, 70 and 91 are protected.
I genuinely don't care if 12, 9, or any other Blues forward available are selected. But I'm assuming they won't be regardless.
I'd assume 55 and 72 are locks to be protected.
But as an outsider with an interest in the teams decisions, I'd hate to see 29 plucked for nothing.
I know he didn't have the greatest season but from a logical standpoint there's really no reason to not protect 29 over 47. Since 2018-19:
xGF is 53.75 (highest among all Blues D with 500 Min)
xGA/60 is 2.03 (lowest among all Blues D with 500 Min, except 41)
xGF/60 2.36 (2nd only to 27)
5v5 Points/60 is 1 (2nd only to 27)
Goes without saying that he's statistically much better than Krug at 5 on 5 play.
From a league-wide perspective he ranks as follows:
xGF ranks 29th
xGA/60 ranks 35th
xGF/60 ranks 74th
5v5 Points/60 ranks Tied for 44th
So if you define a top 4 defenseman as a top 128 defenseman (4 x 32) then statistically speaking he is absolutely a top 4 defenseman.
The Blues do need to give him an expanded role. If they lose him for nothing before ever seeing what he could do playing over 20 a game then they might really regret. Especially when it comes down to keeping a 30 year old defenseman who's 5 on 5 game is suspect at best, here's Krugs league ranks since 2018-19:
xGF 79th (51.42)
xGA/60 88th (2.16)
xGF/60 103rd (2.29)
5v5 Points/60 (0.97)
This season only:
xGF 162nd (47.6), Dunn ranks 199th (45.04)
xGA/60 196th (2.43), Dunn ranks 102nd (2.1)
xGF/60 97th (2.21), Dunn ranks 240th (1.72)
5v5 Points/60 79th (0.91), Dunn ranks 102nd (0.83)
And if we're being completely objective here, statistically Dunn is also a better player thank Faulk, who many seem to think is a reinvigorated player but really is just playing way more than he should be and has basically been getting caved in all season but I don't think there is any chance the Blues don't protect him despite that.
But while we're at it, here are Faulks ranks this season:
xGF 172nd (46.64)
xGA/60 144th (2.23)
xGF/60 202nd (1.95)
5v5 Points/60 125th (0.77)
Since 2018-19:
xGF 125th (50.08)
xGA/60 153rd (2.3)
xGF/60 99th (2.31)
5v5 Points/60 160th (0.72)
The entire point of this is a way of illustrating that I think the Blues should keep Dunn both based on statistical performance also you know, he's 24 whereas Krug and Faulk are 30 and 29, and also have 6 more seasons at 6.5. I genuinely don't think either of them are worth that contract so keeping both at the expense of Dunn would not be ideal. Despite a disappointing 2021 campaign, I still take Dunn over both of them.