2021 Expansion Draft Discussion

tfriede2

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Aug 8, 2010
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Hoffman > Tarasenko?
Right now, it’s not even close. Hoffman is twice the player Tarasenko is right now. Tarasenko is not a threat whatsoever on the ice. I have serious doubts that this changes, unfortunately
 
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Vincenzo Arelliti

He Can't Play Center
Oct 13, 2014
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I like Sanford on the 3rd line and Bortz as a #7. That should be their roles.
I also think Sanford is a fine third liner... when he's on, but I wouldn't want to drag down any of our top-9 with him on wing. Ideally, Sanford is the 13th forward, or is traded. For what it's worth, I think Tarasenko rebounds next year into a solid second line scoring threat.

Ideally, I'd like to run something like this next year:

Schwartz (6.5M) Schenn (6.5M) Tarasenko (7.5M)
Perron (4M) O'Reilly (7.5M) Hoffman (5M)
Kyrou (1M) Thomas (1M) Bozak (1M + Bonuses)
Blais (1.5M) Sundqvist (2.75M) Kostin (.863M)
Sanford (1.5M) Barbashev (1.45M) Clifford (1M)

Krug (6.5M) Parayko (5.5M)
Scandella (3.275M) Faulk (6.5M)
Dunn (2.5M) Walman (.725M)
Bortuzzo (1.375M)

Binnington (6M)
Husso (.75M)

That brings us just over 82M, and that counts a 24th player in Clifford, and doesn't factor in the LTIR space we'll have from Sundqvist.
 

Brian39

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Apr 24, 2014
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I'm not confident that the Blues will send Sanford a qualifying offer. He has arbitration rights and any award he gets would be binding on the team (teams can't walk away from arbitration awards until they hit roughly $4.5M and he isn't getting that). As poorly as he's played this season, he is still on pace for 15 goals over 82 games. He was at a 22 goal pace last season and his career playoff numbers are nothing to scoff at. He contributed positively to a Cup win and his camp will be able to make a decent argument that he deserves a raise. His current $1.5M would be the absolute floor and I think he gets a non-meaningless raise.

He isn't going to get a $4M award in arbitration, but I think you have to be prepared for the possibility of a $2-$2.5M arbitration award if you qualify him. I think I let him walk rather than take that risk. BArby and Dunn also both have arbitration rights this summer and Thomas/Kyrou are owed raises (without arbitration rights). A lot of cash is coming off the books, but you either need to re-sign or replace Schwartz/Bozak/Hoffman. With a flat cap, I'm struggling to justify risking $2M or more on a guy like Sanford.

A 1 year arbitration award walks him to UFA, so other than next-year's contribution you don't "keep" the asset if you go to arbitration. Sanford has no incentive to take a low-ball 2+ year deal and no incentive to sign his QO at $1.5M. I really don't think you can pencil him in at $1.5M for next season and you need a plan to make the cap work with him at $2M or more. I'd rather let him walk and go to UFA.
 

BlueDream

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Aug 30, 2011
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Agreed with the above.

I’ve tried to support and defend Sanford but it’s just not gonna work. He’s too inconsistent and he turns 27 early next season. I don’t think anything will suddenly change with him. I’d let him walk too. Giving him a contract is a waste of time when we have guys that can replace him, like Kostin.
 

joe galiba

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Apr 16, 2020
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I would rather have Sunny or Barby move up to the top 9 if need be than use Sanford
and I would rather have Clifford on the 4th line, if the Blues need offense late in a game you can double shift someone in Clifford's spot
 

Vincenzo Arelliti

He Can't Play Center
Oct 13, 2014
9,363
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Lisle, IL
I'm not confident that the Blues will send Sanford a qualifying offer. He has arbitration rights and any award he gets would be binding on the team (teams can't walk away from arbitration awards until they hit roughly $4.5M and he isn't getting that). As poorly as he's played this season, he is still on pace for 15 goals over 82 games. He was at a 22 goal pace last season and his career playoff numbers are nothing to scoff at. He contributed positively to a Cup win and his camp will be able to make a decent argument that he deserves a raise. His current $1.5M would be the absolute floor and I think he gets a non-meaningless raise.

He isn't going to get a $4M award in arbitration, but I think you have to be prepared for the possibility of a $2-$2.5M arbitration award if you qualify him. I think I let him walk rather than take that risk. BArby and Dunn also both have arbitration rights this summer and Thomas/Kyrou are owed raises (without arbitration rights). A lot of cash is coming off the books, but you either need to re-sign or replace Schwartz/Bozak/Hoffman. With a flat cap, I'm struggling to justify risking $2M or more on a guy like Sanford.

A 1 year arbitration award walks him to UFA, so other than next-year's contribution you don't "keep" the asset if you go to arbitration. Sanford has no incentive to take a low-ball 2+ year deal and no incentive to sign his QO at $1.5M. I really don't think you can pencil him in at $1.5M for next season and you need a plan to make the cap work with him at $2M or more. I'd rather let him walk and go to UFA.
I didn't realize he was up. Even before that I want to let him walk/trade him. He's just not worth the roster spot he requires to be "effective", and his cap could be better spent upgrading elsewhere.
 

Mike Liut

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Right now, it’s not even close. Hoffman is twice the player Tarasenko is right now. Tarasenko is not a threat whatsoever on the ice. I have serious doubts that this changes, unfortunately


Wouldn’t hurt my feelings if Tarasenko was selected by Seattle. I love the Tank, but I’m just not sure he’ll ever be the player he was or could have been.
 

BlueDream

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Aug 30, 2011
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Wouldn’t hurt my feelings if Tarasenko was selected by Seattle. I love the Tank, but I’m just not sure he’ll ever be the player he was or could have been.
Blues have to think very hard about either not protecting him, or trading him. With so many guys we need to re-sign soon, you just can’t be paying 7.5 mil to a “maybe”. He needs to be put on the trade block and immediately fielded offers for in the offseason.
 
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Zezel’s Pretzels

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May 25, 2019
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Now that the regular season is over, this would be my protection list:

7 forwards:
ROR
Schenn
Thomas
Kyrou
Perron
Schwartz, assuming re-signed before ED
Tarasenko (man, this is a tough choice) - while I am not philosophically averse to exposing him, someone made the point about how it would be received by him if we did. And I hate to agree, but I do. He's most definitely declining. But, man, it would be an emotional gut punch for me if he gets it back in Seattle.

Exposed: Sunny, Barbie, Blais, Sanford, Clifford, etc. Sunny's a tough one to expose, but with his injury, could he be a declining asset? Unless DA takes my advice, the odds are SEA's selection comes below, anyway.

3 D:
Parayko
Faulk
Dunn - going against the grain. Similar to what I said about Vladi, it'll probably be a gut punch to Krug that he's exposed. But if we want to keep Dunn, this is what has to be done. Dare them to take a big contract from us. (What would REALLY be cutthroat would be exposing both Vlad and Krug and protecting cheaper assets.)

Exposed: Krug, Scandella, Bortz, Mikkola, Walman, etc.

And then Binner.

If I were SEA and this were our list, I'd probably draft Sunny.

Pick it apart, people.
 

jbron

Registered User
Apr 27, 2014
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West Coast
If unprotected, most likely Dunn gets dealt before the expansion draft so that there is some return. Also, possible that an offer is made with Seattle to select other than Dunn. Hopefully, that doesn't include future draft picks. Looking around the league there appears to be more
young D available to the Kraken than Forwards. So the Kraken might look at Barbashev, Blais, Sanford , or Sundqvist. Blais is inconsistent
and Sundqvist is injured. They could very well select Barbashev.
 

Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
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Blues have to think very hard about either not protecting him, or trading him. With so many guys we need to re-sign soon, you just can’t be paying 7.5 mil to a “maybe”. He needs to be put on the trade block and immediately fielded offers for in the offseason.
He has a full NTC and pretty much every competitive team that he might agree to go to will not be able to fit him under a flat cap unless we take a bad contract back. He's not getting traded anywhere unless he asks for a trade.
 

Brian39

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Apr 24, 2014
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I think we handshake Shwartz and sign him after the draft so we can protect Sunny. That dude is important to this team.
If I'm in Schwartz's shoes I'm not even remotely considering any handshake deal that pays me less than $50M.

What is the incentive for Schwartz to take a handshake deal that isn't a massive overpayment?
 
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Xerloris

reckless optimism
Jun 9, 2015
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If I'm in Schwartz's shoes I'm not even remotely considering any handshake deal that pays me less than $50M.

What is the incentive for Schwartz to take a handshake deal that isn't a massive overpayment?

If you want to be in St.Louis then you do what you can to help the team. You agree to your contract and then you wait to sign it so we can protect more players on the team you're going to be a part of. It makes perfect sense and I think anyone would do the same that's not piece of shit.
 

Zezel’s Pretzels

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May 25, 2019
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If I'm in Schwartz's shoes I'm not even remotely considering any handshake deal that pays me less than $50M.

What is the incentive for Schwartz to take a handshake deal that isn't a massive overpayment?

I see your point, but it's not like it's a long handshake. It can be announced a few days after the draft, right? Not like there's injury risk added to the calculus.

But you're right - Jaden would have to really want to stay here to agree to this. That's obviously up to him.
 

Frenzy31

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May 21, 2003
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Based solely on the season - this could all change via Post season.

First, I have a hand shake agreement with Schwartz and expose him as a UFA and then sign him after the expansion draft.

7 Forwards
ROR
Schenn
Thomas
Kyrou
Perron
Barby
Sunny D

Exposed Tarasenko (This is a business and he hasn't played much in the past two seasons). Now if he has a great playoffs, then this will change - but if he is in and out of the line up then long term, I don't see him living up to his contract and you have to do what is right by the organization).

3 D
CP
Faulk
Krug - (Like the player, dont like the contact). I struggle with him and Dunn. It is a toss up, but Krug is better defensively. But Dunn is actually worth his contact - Krug is overpaid at this point.

I just don't see a better fit via UFA that would actually sign here.

I think Seattle will take a look at Tarasenko as they will have little to no opportunity to get a goal scorer in the draft (mostly 3rd and 4th liners). If not, then Blaise or Sanford (Yes, I am going way off board here).

My thoughts are there will be many dmen available the will be 2nd pairing caliber, but they may be able to offer Sanford or Blaise a legit top 6 role and Sanford could be attractive as he can play center also. Their forward pickings will be very slim.
 

Frenzy31

Registered User
May 21, 2003
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If you want to be in St.Louis then you do what you can to help the team. You agree to your contract and then you wait to sign it so we can protect more players on the team you're going to be a part of. It makes perfect sense and I think anyone would do the same that's not piece of shit.

I agree. I would want to be on the most competitive team possible. Taking up a roster spot and losing a decent player because of seems like a massive step backwards. Unless you are an ego maniac, I think most players will put the team first.

There is a reason EJ is waiving his NMT with the Aves and that is to help his team.
 

Xerloris

reckless optimism
Jun 9, 2015
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St.Louis
Is Tarasenko even eligible? You have to play in x amount of games in the previous 2 seasons. Anyone know how many that is?
 

Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
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I see your point, but it's not like it's a long handshake. It can be announced a few days after the draft, right? Not like there's injury risk added to the calculus.

But you're right - Jaden would have to really want to stay here to agree to this. That's obviously up to him.
The NHL made it clear last time that it will investigate any situation where an exposed UFA re-signs with their team after the expansion draft. Schwartz and his agent would need to agree to lie to the NHL and potentially to an arbitrator in a legal proceeding if they are going to announce an extension in the window between the expansion draft and the start of free agency. If he declines to talk to Seattle when they call and then re-signs with the Blues, it will 100% trigger a hefty investigation by the league. So he will also have to agree to talk to Seattle but not actually negotiate with them in good faith in order to avoid the league finding that there was cap circumvention.

And there is absolutely injury risk. Every game he has played without a contract and will play without a contract in the playoffs is an injury risk. Any handshake deal would almost certainly have already been agreed upon. There is a reason that you almost never see the top-level pending UFAs sign contracts between the playoffs and start of UFA unless the team offers market value.
 

Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
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Is Tarasenko even eligible? You have to play in x amount of games in the previous 2 seasons. Anyone know how many that is?
You do not have to play in x amount of games to be eligible. Teams are required to expose a certain number of skaters that have played 70+ games over the preceding 2 seasons. But players who don't meet that requirement are absolutely still eligible to be selected by Seattle. Tarasenko is 100% eligible to be selected by Seattle if he is not protected.
 
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Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
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If you want to be in St.Louis then you do what you can to help the team. You agree to your contract and then you wait to sign it so we can protect more players on the team you're going to be a part of. It makes perfect sense and I think anyone would do the same that's not piece of shit.
This is fundamentally not how business is done in professional sports. You can believe that this is how business should be done, but it is absolutely not the reality of pro sports. The league ensured that this wouldn't be the reality when they shut down the league for a year in order to get a hard salary cap linked to league revenue.

Nothing fosters a healthy locker room and team culture like calling your employees pieces of shit though. Highly skilled labor absolutely loves management that offers ultimatums, gives massive contracts to employees from outside the organization and then expects long-term employees to make sacrifices that no one else had to make. Yes, guys line up to play for those organizations.
 

Xerloris

reckless optimism
Jun 9, 2015
6,912
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St.Louis
This is fundamentally not how business is done in professional sports. You can believe that this is how business should be done, but it is absolutely not the reality of pro sports. The league ensured that this wouldn't be the reality when they shut down the league for a year in order to get a hard salary cap linked to league revenue.

Nothing fosters a healthy locker room and team culture like calling your employees pieces of shit though. Highly skilled labor absolutely loves management that offers ultimatums, gives massive contracts to employees from outside the organization and then expects long-term employees to make sacrifices that no one else had to make. Yes, guys line up to play for those organizations.


Also this is exactly how professional sports works. I mean did we not just have an agreement with Hoffman to wait to sign with us until the opportune moment? Get real man.
 
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Xerloris

reckless optimism
Jun 9, 2015
6,912
7,517
St.Louis
The NHL made it clear last time that it will investigate any situation where an exposed UFA re-signs with their team after the expansion draft. Schwartz and his agent would need to agree to lie to the NHL and potentially to an arbitrator in a legal proceeding if they are going to announce an extension in the window between the expansion draft and the start of free agency. If he declines to talk to Seattle when they call and then re-signs with the Blues, it will 100% trigger a hefty investigation by the league. So he will also have to agree to talk to Seattle but not actually negotiate with them in good faith in order to avoid the league finding that there was cap circumvention.

And there is absolutely injury risk. Every game he has played without a contract and will play without a contract in the playoffs is an injury risk. Any handshake deal would almost certainly have already been agreed upon. There is a reason that you almost never see the top-level pending UFAs sign contracts between the playoffs and start of UFA unless the team offers market value.

He could be honest and tell Seattle he wants to be in St.Louis and has no interest moving to the west coast. That is every players right.
 

Thallis

Progression is not linear
Jan 23, 2010
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Also this is exactly how professional sports works. I mean did we not just have an agreement with Hoffman to wait to sign with us until the opportune moment? Get real man.

What? Hoffman was waiting for more offers, then signed with us when the ones he was looking for didn't come. There wasn't an agreement, there was an offer that he left for a while and then signed.
 
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