2021 Expansion Draft Discussion

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

I know this is thinking ahead and that this is the 2020-2021 thread, but I'm just pretending to work today and I am bored. And I'm not sure where else to put this thread.

Right now, the Blues have 13 players under contract for the 21-22 season and have $25.6M in cap space. Schwartz, Bozak, Gunnar, and Binny are UFAs; Thomas, Sanford, Barbashev, and DLR are RFAs. Then, of course, there's the whole pesky expansion draft thing to consider.

How does the 1 year Hoffman signing influence the plan for that season? Can lump him in with the UFA crowd above. I thought I read that Seattle has a window to negotiate with UFAs before the draft, and if they come to an agreement with a desired target from a team, that team is then "exempt" from the rest of the draft. Is that right?

It seems pretty clear that Bozak and Gunnar will be gone, and that DLR is kind of "whatever" in terms of a QO. It also seems pretty clear that Thomas is going to get paid, and that the Blues really have no other G plan besides Binny, so he probably gets an extension at some point this year and gets protected from the Kraken. What happens with Schwartz, Hoffman, Sanford, and Barby is intriguing to me.

Assuming the Blues go 7/3/1 for the draft, they're protecting ROR, Schenn, Thomas, and Sunny for sure. Perron has one year left after this contract, but he's heart and soul at this point, and I don't see him not being protected. Assuming Sanford is protected too. Who's the seventh? Vladi? Or do we try to expose him as a "name" player for Seattle if there is any question about his recovery and long term health?

Gotta figure Parayko and Krug are for sure protected - and for that matter, Parayko's going to need an extension in the next couple of offseasons too. Do you protect Dunn or Faulk? Or do you protect Mikkola?

Lots of questions above, and I know I'm just rambling at this point to kill time. Beyond all that, who do you think DA and the Blues have in their long-term plans (from this list): Hoffman, Schwartz, Dunn, Parayko, Barby, Sanford?

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[ThunderCat]

I know this is thinking ahead and that this is the 2020-2021 thread, but I'm just pretending to work today and I am bored. And I'm not sure where else to put this thread.

Right now, the Blues have 13 players under contract for the 21-22 season and have $25.6M in cap space. Schwartz, Bozak, Gunnar, and Binny are UFAs; Thomas, Sanford, Barbashev, and DLR are RFAs. Then, of course, there's the whole pesky expansion draft thing to consider.

How does the 1 year Hoffman signing influence the plan for that season? Can lump him in with the UFA crowd above. I thought I read that Seattle has a window to negotiate with UFAs before the draft, and if they come to an agreement with a desired target from a team, that team is then "exempt" from the rest of the draft. Is that right?

It seems pretty clear that Bozak and Gunnar will be gone, and that DLR is kind of "whatever" in terms of a QO. It also seems pretty clear that Thomas is going to get paid, and that the Blues really have no other G plan besides Binny, so he probably gets an extension at some point this year and gets protected from the Kraken. What happens with Schwartz, Hoffman, Sanford, and Barby is intriguing to me.

Assuming the Blues go 7/3/1 for the draft, they're protecting ROR, Schenn, Thomas, and Sunny for sure. Perron has one year left after this contract, but he's heart and soul at this point, and I don't see him not being protected. Assuming Sanford is protected too. Who's the seventh? Vladi? Or do we try to expose him as a "name" player for Seattle if there is any question about his recovery and long term health?

Gotta figure Parayko and Krug are for sure protected - and for that matter, Parayko's going to need an extension in the next couple of offseasons too. Do you protect Dunn or Faulk? Or do you protect Mikkola?

Lots of questions above, and I know I'm just rambling at this point to kill time. Beyond all that, who do you think DA and the Blues have in their long-term plans (from this list): Hoffman, Schwartz, Dunn, Parayko, Barby, Sanford?

This is kind of where I'm at so far with the expansion draft.. Stuck on a few!!
It's gonna be a tough decision..

Does Vladdy regain his form??
Does Mikkola turn into a force??
Do Dunn and Perron perform well enough for an extension??
Hoffman.. Husso??

Who knows how this turns out..it's fun to speculate, but I keep going back and forth..
Gonna be hard to come to a conclusion until after the season.

I think we'll either lose Sanford, Blais or Mikkola.. But if Dunn's gets traded??.. and for who??
All plays a part.. but would rather not lose Sunny, Barby or Blaise. Great depth players to have on your team.. who play with an edge!!
Love their style of play, and I'm sure Berube does as well!

Who knows yet??
Still tho.. We've got a bunch of good depth players.. Feels like I'm changing my mind every second

7 - 3 - 1

O'Reilly
Schenn
Thomas
Schwartz
Kyrou
Sunny
Barbashev


Parayko
Krug
Mikkola/Dunn

Binner



And when you ask.. "Who do you think DA and the Blues have in their long-term plans (from this list): Hoffman, Schwartz, Dunn, Parayko, Barby, Sanford?"

I would think Parayko, Schwartz, Barby and Dunn. Feel like Dunn and Sanford are more expandable. Also depends on how they all perform this year.. including Hoffman.
Time will tell..

Ha.. too much early speculation on my part!! Can't wait for the season to start..

 

[Ranksu]

Tarasenko has 2 more years left in his contract. This injury will hurt Blues if he demands trade. I could really see possibility Tarasenko walks away from St Louis after disco tract ends.

Hopefully he recovers fully and put numbers in 2021-22 season and trade him or wait do we have to protect Vlasy for expansion draft or just leave him not protected? Would Seattle take 'iffy' healthy Vlady?

@EastonBlues22 could take above expansion draft posts and create new thread for it?

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

Tarasenko has 2 more years left in his contract. This injury will hurt Blues if he demands trade. I could really see possibility Tarasenko walks away from St Louis after disco tract ends.

Hopefully he recovers fully and put numbers in 2021-22 season and trade him or wait do we have to protect Vlasy for expansion draft or just leave him not protected? Would Seattle take 'iffy' healthy Vlady?

@EastonBlues22 could take above expansion draft posts and create new thread for it?

if Vladi regains his form and puts up numbers THIS YEAR - he’s going to be protected in the expansion draft. Then if he does it again next year, he’s going to be a Blue for the rest of his career. Hoping the Blues don’t entertain trading a healthy and productive Vladi.

 

[Ranksu]

if Vladi regains his form and puts up numbers THIS YEAR - he’s going to be protected in the expansion draft. Then if he does it again next year, he’s going to be a Blue for the rest of his career. Hoping the Blues don’t entertain trading a healthy and productive Vladi.

But isnt Vlady going to be out next season and back near of October?

 

[ThunderCat]

if Vladi regains his form and puts up numbers THIS YEAR - he’s going to be protected in the expansion draft. Then if he does it again next year, he’s going to be a Blue for the rest of his career. Hoping the Blues don’t entertain trading a healthy and productive Vladi.

I love Tarasenko, even have his jersey!!
I will admit it was an X-mas gift, but would've preferred a "Thomas" or "O'Reilly"..lol

Either way.. honestly cannot see the Blues protecting him tho.. making 7.5 with a battered shoulder.

I really do I appreciate everything he's done for the franchise.. but it's a business in the end.

If he regains his form, and has his shot back.. then yeahhh I'm all for it!!

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

I love Tarasenko, even have his jersey!!
I will admit it was an X-mas gift, but would've preferred a "Thomas" or "O'Reilly"..lol

Either way.. honestly cannot see the Blues protecting him tho.. making 7.5 with a battered shoulder.

I really do I appreciate everything he's done for the franchise.. but it's a business in the end.

If he regains his form, and has his shot back.. then yeahhh I'm all for it!!

granted, those two scenarios I put out there are pretty large if’s...if he doesn’t come back this year or struggles in the playoffs, it’s a decision to expose him. And if he doesn’t get taken in the Seattle draft (under this scenario) and struggles again, then he’s either going FA or going to be signed in a MUCH smaller role/$$$ amount than this contract.

I love Vlad, so I am being an optimist. I believe in what he said in the interview that came out today and I want him to be a Blue for life. But we know DA doesn’t deal with emotions, and that makes him a good GM.

 

[Blueston]

Don’t understand so many folks protecting Kyrou over Sanford. Is possible Kyrou makes leap this year but more likely that sanford remains much better player.

 

[Frenzy31]

I have a hand shake deal with Schwartz and would expose him as a UFA at the expansion draft. It would allow us to protect Perron, who deserves it.

I would expose Sanford as we have a similar player in Blais. He isn’t as good but plays a similar game.

I fully expect Seattle to take Dunn. He is young and you can use him as a building block.

 

[simon IC]

I hope we expose Faulk, but I am pretty sure it won't happen.

 

[Reality Czech]

Don’t understand so many folks protecting Kyrou over Sanford. Is possible Kyrou makes leap this year but more likely that sanford remains much better player.

Yes, I would agree with you that it is not automatic. This year will decide which of them gets proteted or not. I'm a bigger fan of Sanford than most, but if Kyrou passes him on the depth chart this year then I would be ok protecting Kyrou over him. But if Sanford continues to improve and Kyrou doesn't take the next step, then it will be hard to let a big, young, durable 20+ goal forward go.

This year will also decide whether or not we protect Faulk. If he doesn't improve on last year's performance, he is left unprotected and we cross our fingers that Seattle takes him off our hands. If Mikkola steps up and shows serious top-4 potential, then I could see us protecting him over Faulk and Dunn, who I don't necessarily see in our long-terms plans due to his future price tag and having Krug/Mikkola/Perunovich in the mix.

Unfortunately when you're one of the deepest teams in the league, we are likely to lose a fairly good player. It's far too early to know how it will all shake out, but this will be a good thread to revisit throughout the course of the season.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I hope we expose Faulk, but I am pretty sure it won't happen.

From Armstrong’s comments, I’d expect the defensemen protected to be Faulk, Krug and Parayko. I suppose if Faulk has another disappointing season they may shift to protecting Dunn. It will be very interesting if the Blues sign Dunn to a cheaper contract that takes him straight to UFA status. That might be a ‘too-clever’ move to maximize value from a player you expect to lose.

 

[Blueston]

I have a hand shake deal with Schwartz and would expose him as a UFA at the expansion draft. It would allow us to protect Perron, who deserves it.

I would expose Sanford as we have a similar player in Blais. He isn’t as good but plays a similar game.

I fully expect Seattle to take Dunn. He is young and you can use him as a building block.

Don’t see Sanford and Blais as similar. Blais is wrecking ball out there with some skill but limited offensive sense and tendency to injuries. Sanford has become solid 2-way player who can play in all situations and provide secondary scoring.

 

[Blueston]

From Armstrong’s comments, I’d expect the defensemen protected to be Faulk, Krug and Parayko. I suppose if Faulk has another disappointing season they may shift to protecting Dunn. It will be very interesting if the Blues sign Dunn to a cheaper contract that takes him straight to UFA status. That might be a ‘too-clever’ move to maximize value from a player you expect to lose.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we expose Faulk. Army believes in him I think but at his salary and term might expose him over someone like Dunn because he doesn’t think Seattle would take him.

 

[Zamadoo]

As of right now, the Blues hardly even have 11 contracts to protect after 20-21 season. Personally I hope we extend Schwartz and Binner sooner than later, then take care of Thomas. I think players who won the Cup should be higher priority. Will Hoffman sign a multi-year deal and be protected?

 

[Frenzy31]

Don’t see Sanford and Blais as similar. Blais is wrecking ball out there with some skill but limited offensive sense and tendency to injuries. Sanford has become solid 2-way player who can play in all situations and provide secondary scoring.

I think they are very similar and when Blais played with Perron and ROR he also produced, plus it isn't like Sanford is injury free - grant his are more freak and not really related to playing style.

I think Sanford has more guys capable of filling his void then that of JK. JK has a unique set of offense and speed - which we lack. Granted if he fails to take the next step, then you expose him, but if he continues to progress, then I expect him to pass Sanford at some point this year.

 

[Ranksu]

@EastonBlues22

 

[Ranksu]

I wouldn’t be surprised if we expose Faulk. Army believes in him I think but at his salary and term might expose him over someone like Dunn because he doesn’t think Seattle would take him.

I dont think we can afford to lose Faulk for nothing. Army has to protect him how he played his cards.

'You have made your bed, now lie in it'.

 

[mk80]

I dont think we can afford to lose Faulk for nothing. Army has to protect him how he played his cards.

'You have made your bed, now lie in it'.

The salary space opened by him being taken by Seattle would be the payoff.

 

[Quaz]

The salary space opened by him being taken by Seattle would be the payoff.

I could see Faulk exposed, and maybe STL makes a deal for Seattle to take him. Especially if they think Perunovich is good enough to play 2nd pair RD. If they expose Dunn he will be taken, same with Kyrou.

 

[Eldon Reid]

This is kind of where I'm at so far with the expansion draft.. Stuck on a few!!
It's gonna be a tough decision..

Does Vladdy regain his form??
Does Mikkola turn into a force??
Do Dunn and Perron perform well enough for an extension??
Hoffman.. Husso??

Who knows how this turns out..it's fun to speculate, but I keep going back and forth..
Gonna be hard to come to a conclusion until after the season.

I think we'll either lose Sanford, Blais or Mikkola.. But if Dunn's gets traded??.. and for who??
All plays a part.. but would rather not lose Sunny, Barby or Blaise. Great depth players to have on your team.. who play with an edge!!
Love their style of play, and I'm sure Berube does as well!

Who knows yet??
Still tho.. We've got a bunch of good depth players.. Feels like I'm changing my mind every second

7 - 3 - 1

O'Reilly
Schenn
Thomas
Schwartz
Kyrou
Sunny
Barbashev


Parayko
Krug
Mikkola/Dunn

Binner



And when you ask.. "Who do you think DA and the Blues have in their long-term plans (from this list): Hoffman, Schwartz, Dunn, Parayko, Barby, Sanford?"

I would think Parayko, Schwartz, Barby and Dunn. Feel like Dunn and Sanford are more expandable. Also depends on how they all perform this year.. including Hoffman.
Time will tell..

Ha.. too much early speculation on my part!! Can't wait for the season to start..

The way too early prediction.

There are so many other factors to look at too.

TRADE DEADLINE will be very interesting this year. Using the Blues as an example, where we have 4 good dman to protect but we want to do the 7-3-1 decide hey we can't protect Dunn, so why not trade him and get a pick and or prospect for him. I bet a lot of teams will trade players who they can't protect for assets.

Will other teams be offering players to protect certain players? I don't think we will see as much of that this time around as last.

Then you have to take into account what is Seattle's strategy for the draft? Draft more players who could be dealt as rentals, cheaper players, or project players?

 

[BlueDream]

I think they are very similar and when Blais played with Perron and ROR he also produced, plus it isn't like Sanford is injury free - grant his are more freak and not really related to playing style.

I think Sanford has more guys capable of filling his void then that of JK. JK has a unique set of offense and speed - which we lack. Granted if he fails to take the next step, then you expose him, but if he continues to progress, then I expect him to pass Sanford at some point this year.

Blais produced with ROR and Perron for like 10 games before getting injured (again). It wasn’t near a big enough sample size to put much stock into. Sanford has played well with them for many, many games.

Also I wouldn’t consider Kyrou unique. He can skate fast, but you can find plenty of guys that can do that. Until he starts scoring, his speed isn’t doing much. This is a big year for him.

As it currently stands though, I’d protect Sanford over both Kyrou and Barbashev.

 

[tfriede2]

The way too early prediction.

There are so many other factors to look at too.

TRADE DEADLINE will be very interesting this year. Using the Blues as an example, where we have 4 good dman to protect but we want to do the 7-3-1 decide hey we can't protect Dunn, so why not trade him and get a pick and or prospect for him. I bet a lot of teams will trade players who they can't protect for assets.

Will other teams be offering players to protect certain players? I don't think we will see as much of that this time around as last.

Then you have to take into account what is Seattle's strategy for the draft? Draft more players who could be dealt as rentals, cheaper players, or project players?

Because now you’re losing two players instead of one, and that other player is likely to be Sanford, Barbashev, or Blais. I’d rather just lose one of these players than two, and the one we lose may not end up being Dunn anyway. A prospect or pick doesn’t move the needle (unless the pick is a first or the prospect is blue chip).

 

[Eldon Reid]

Because now you’re losing two players instead of one, and that other player is likely to be Sanford, Barbashev, or Blais. I’d rather just lose one of these players than two, and the one we lose may not end up being Dunn anyway. A prospect or pick doesn’t move the needle (unless the pick is a first or the prospect is blue chip).

That was just an example. I don't want the Blues doing that. Just threw out the idea that teams may trade players that they can't protect for assets.

 

[Ranksu]

So where we are at now, which players Army will protect?