We’ll see what transpires in Toronto but if I really had to guess, my guess is that they’ll field some very good teams over these next few years but won’t have the depth to win a cup.
Someone on the T&R Board (In one of the Matthews has been extended threads) did a study on cup winning teams, and what overall percentage of the cap their top players occupied.
What all of these teams had in common over the past decade or so, was.....
1) The top end talents of these respective teams being on long term cap friendly deals.
2) All of these teams being very deep and having extra money to pay for depth.
Between 2010-2015, Chicago and LA won multiple cups. Look at those old AAV’s of Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Hossa, Kopitar, Doughty, Carter, Richards, Brown, and Gaborik, and it’s quite easy to see why. Even that 2011 team in Boston had extremely favorably cap hits to their elite players, and could invest in extra depth as a result.
It wasn’t until Toews, Kane, and Kopitar received those 10-10.5 million “thank you” deals (very justified mind you.....as these players helped their organizations win multiple cups) that the LA and Chicago mini-dynasties came to an end.
With the cap having gone up + Chicago and LA no longer having an envious cap structure, Pittsburgh’s cap situation had become relatively strong. With the cap having gone up significantly since 2010, contracts like Crosby’s and Malkin’s were relatively cost effective now. Ditto for Washington when they won last year.
Look at Tampa Bay this year. Look at the AAV’s of Stamkos and Hedman. Look at Calgary and what they seem to be building. Look at the AAV’s on Monahan, Gaudreau, etc. Look at Winnipeg’s current cap. How about Nashville’s? (Notice how there are rumblings about how they might try and move Subbann?)
People talk about how the Canucks invested heavily in guys like Sutter, Gudbranson, Eriksson, etc., without taking into consideration that......
1) All/most of these contracts will start expiring just around the time that our current core will be ready to be re-upped.
2) Guys like Eriksson, Gudbranson, Sutter, etc, were paid a premium price for leadership and mentor ship while we were transitioning to our new core. These guys were placeholders and were never expected to be a part of our long term plans unless they made a huge case otherwise (which they haven’t).
Tl;dr: Long term cost effective contracts to young core + investing in depth = greatest potential for a team to win multiple cups. Depth is key. Even though they haven’t won a cup yet, there’s a reason why a “no name” team like Vegas regularly mops the floors with many top teams. Cost effective contracts + depth.