Podkolzin will be our pick unless we're picking top 2 or if he's not available when we're picking.
That's quite a statement. I think Podkolzin is an outstanding player with star potential. But Podkolzin has no more potential than Byram or Cozens, either of whom fit better into the Devils philosophy of skating/compete than Podkolzin, both of whom fit a greater organizational positional need than Podkolzin, and both of whom should be in the NHL in two seasons while Podkolzin could realistically still be in the KHL. So, I don't see it.
In my rankings, Byram is 3rd, Cozens 4th, and Podkolzin 6th. Here's some more noted rankers:
ISS
Byram 3, Podkolzin 4, Cozens 5
McKeens
Podkolzin 3, Cozens 4, Byram 6
Future Considerations
Podkolzin 3, Byram 4, Cozens 7
Corey Pronman (The Athletic)
Cozens 3, Podkolzin 5, Byram 8
Scott Wheeler (The Athletic)
Cozens 3, Byram 7, Podkolzin 14
Dobber Hockey
Podkolzin 3, Cozens 4, Byram 5
TSN
Podkolzin 3, Cozens 5, Byram 6
Sportsnet
Podkolzin 3, Cozens 4, Byram 6
I think that, looking at the consensus rankings, we can say that Podkolzin has a slight edge over Byram and Cozens. But very very slight. But it is important not to see draft ranking and draft value as interchangeable. Byram is far and away the best D in this draft, this will drive his draft value upwards. Podkolzin has shown little interest in rushing to North America, this will drive down his draft value. Cozens can play center or right wing, this will drive up his draft value.
These are some reasons why, in my latest mock draft, I have Podkolzin going outside the top 5. It is not a knock on him as a player. Let's assume that the draft order stays in the current positional standings (COL, LA, DET, NJ, ANH, NYR, EDM). We can all agree that Hughes and Kakko go one-two. After this, Detroit is certainly a possibility to take Podkolzin. But, like the Devils, their biggest organizational needs are at D and C. So would they take him over Byram or Cozens or Dach? It's not outside the realm of possibility, but it's not a lock by any means.
So, let's say the Wings go with Byram, filling an enormous need on their blueline. Now the Devils are up. The Devils have desperate needs for centers, right-shooting-forwards, shoot-first forwards, top six forwards with size -- and the Devils love players with speed and high compete levels. While Podkolzin checks three of those boxes (top-six Fs with size, shoot-first Fs and high compete levels), Cozens checks all of them. Since their rankings are virtually identical, why would the Devils go with a slower, left-shooting winger who cannot play center and may not come to North America for three seasons?
So, let's say the Devils go with Cozens. Next up is the Anaheim Ducks. Quick quiz: who was the last Russian skater who the Anaheim Ducks drafted? Well, I'll give you the answer. Stanislav Chistov, in the 1st round, in 2001.
IN 2001. In Two-Thousand-Frickin'-One. That is, coincidentally, the year in which Vasili Podkolzin was born. As poetic as that is, I still say that the Ducks would, in this scenario, take Kirby Dach, who very much fits into their philosophy of very large, physical players, while filling their biggest organizational hole at center, while he can be mentored by the player he is most commonly compared to in Ryan Getzlaf.
I will say that the Rangers would certainly draft Podkolzin 6th.
My point is, my hypothetical is just a hypothetical. Maybe the Wings take Podkolzin third, who knows how their scouts have ranked the class of 2019? But to say that the Devils, or any of these teams, would be a lock to take Podkolzin at #3 is simply baseless. He has shown no clear talent superiority to Byram or Cozens (or even Dach, in most scouts eyes) and plays at a less crucial position and has not answered questions about when he is coming to North America. Thus, we can safely posit that Podkolzin is certainly a possibility to be drafted at #3 overall, but he is also the most likely of these three players to fall in the draft.
