Prospect Info: 2019 Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 (post-deadline)

[Devils731]

if weight is a factor, tampa is one of the bottom teams as well

i mean, no one team is extremely smaller in size/weight than the others, so it's prob a nonfactor is what i'm getting at

I agree with you. Size of the fight in the dog, not size of the dog in the fight.

 

[StevenToddIves]

you should be writing these in letters to shero and castron like andy dufresne trying to get library books for prison

Shero can hire me if he wants, I have some free time.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Shero can hire me if he wants, I have some free time.

I’ll put in a good word for you.

 

[StevenToddIves]

When you have guys like Gaudreau and DeBrincat going gangbusters on the whole league it's hard to be concerned over size anymore.

Agreed, but if you look at the top teams in the league, they all have some physical, strong guys on the blueline. Tampa has Hedman, Coburn, Cernak and Sergachev -- all 6'3 or bigger. Winnipeg has Byfuglien, Myers, Chiarot and Trouba -- all 6'3 or bigger. Calgary has Hamonic, Hanifin and Giordano. Washington has Carlson and Orpik. Those are your four first-place teams.

The Devils most physical D is Steve Santini, who is at best a 5/6 D. Sami Vatanen is the team's best D and he's under 6'0. The biggest D on the team is Mirco Mueller and he is not remotely physical. Andy Greene and Will Butcher are both also under 6'0. The fact is simply that the Devils D is small, not physical, and gets pushed around regularly by teams with physical forwards.

I do not believe in building a blueline out of 6 Gudbransons. But I also don't believe in building a blueline out of 6 Gostisbeheres. Neither team would make the playoffs. A successful NHL franchise needs a blend of different types of players. Since the Devils lack an all purpose stud D like Doughty or Byfuglien, they need guys who can play a physical, shut-down role and guys who can play an offensive, puck-moving role. Ty Smith will soon emerge as the offensive guy, but who is shutting down the opposition? Who is the physical factor to neutralize opposing power forwards in the crease and along the boards?

With 7 picks in the top 100 of the 2019 draft, all I'm saying is that the Devils need to address this organizational weakness. It does not have to be with the #3 pick or the #34 pick, but there are several players who could fill that need available later on. Whether it's McCarthy, Korczak, Tuomisto or Lee -- the Devils need a physical, shut-down D in the pipeline.

 

[My3Sons]

Agreed, but if you look at the top teams in the league, they all have some physical, strong guys on the blueline. Tampa has Hedman, Coburn, Cernak and Sergachev -- all 6'3 or bigger. Winnipeg has Byfuglien, Myers, Chiarot and Trouba -- all 6'3 or bigger. Calgary has Hamonic, Hanifin and Giordano. Washington has Carlson and Orpik. Those are your four first-place teams.

The Devils most physical D is Steve Santini, who is at best a 5/6 D. Sami Vatanen is the team's best D and he's under 6'0. The biggest D on the team is Mirco Mueller and he is not remotely physical. Andy Greene and Will Butcher are both also under 6'0. The fact is simply that the Devils D is small, not physical, and gets pushed around regularly by teams with physical forwards.

I do not believe in building a blueline out of 6 Gudbransons. But I also don't believe in building a blueline out of 6 Gostisbeheres. Neither team would make the playoffs. A successful NHL franchise needs a blend of different types of players. Since the Devils lack an all purpose stud D like Doughty or Byfuglien, they need guys who can play a physical, shut-down role and guys who can play an offensive, puck-moving role. Ty Smith will soon emerge as the offensive guy, but who is shutting down the opposition? Who is the physical factor to neutralize opposing power forwards in the crease and along the boards?

With 7 picks in the top 100 of the 2019 draft, all I'm saying is that the Devils need to address this organizational weakness. It does not have to be with the #3 pick or the #34 pick, but there are several players who could fill that need available later on. Whether it's McCarthy, Korczak, Tuomisto or Lee -- the Devils need a physical, shut-down D in the pipeline.

I think that some folks are concerned that any defender who fits the shut down physical mold will end up as either Mueller or Santini and not be a top four type of defender. On that note, what are your thoughts on what holds Santini back? I agree with you that some size and strength is needed on the blue line but how to distinguish between the old school guy who won’t be able to translate to the NHL and the guy who can do that above a bottom pair role is lost on me. In Mueller’s case it’s easy to see he is a gentle giant who can get riled up but has to be pushed first. Santini mystifies me. He can skate well enough and clearly isn’t afraid of anything but he struggles at times at both ends of the ice. He should be exactly the kind of defender you would like to see the team add but he can’t seem to get it together consistently.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Agreed, but if you look at the top teams in the league, they all have some physical, strong guys on the blueline. Tampa has Hedman, Coburn, Cernak and Sergachev -- all 6'3 or bigger. Winnipeg has Byfuglien, Myers, Chiarot and Trouba -- all 6'3 or bigger. Calgary has Hamonic, Hanifin and Giordano. Washington has Carlson and Orpik. Those are your four first-place teams.

The Devils most physical D is Steve Santini, who is at best a 5/6 D. Sami Vatanen is the team's best D and he's under 6'0. The biggest D on the team is Mirco Mueller and he is not remotely physical. Andy Greene and Will Butcher are both also under 6'0. The fact is simply that the Devils D is small, not physical, and gets pushed around regularly by teams with physical forwards.

I do not believe in building a blueline out of 6 Gudbransons. But I also don't believe in building a blueline out of 6 Gostisbeheres. Neither team would make the playoffs. A successful NHL franchise needs a blend of different types of players. Since the Devils lack an all purpose stud D like Doughty or Byfuglien, they need guys who can play a physical, shut-down role and guys who can play an offensive, puck-moving role. Ty Smith will soon emerge as the offensive guy, but who is shutting down the opposition? Who is the physical factor to neutralize opposing power forwards in the crease and along the boards?

With 7 picks in the top 100 of the 2019 draft, all I'm saying is that the Devils need to address this organizational weakness. It does not have to be with the #3 pick or the #34 pick, but there are several players who could fill that need available later on. Whether it's McCarthy, Korczak, Tuomisto or Lee -- the Devils need a physical, shut-down D in the pipeline.

I think the bigger issue with the Devils defense is their skating. Being small isn't as big of a problem if you can skate well. You can be small or you can be slow, you can't be both. Even the bigger guys you mentioned like Hedman, Giordano, Carlson, etc are all excellent skaters. And some of the best defensive defensemen to come along in the past decade - guys like McDonagh, Vlasic, Suter, etc - are not overly physical but rather rely on their timing and spacing to defend.

Severson is the best skating defenseman on this team, everyone else is average or worse. Greene was an excellent skater but has declined with age (as all players do). I don't think the likes of Vatanen, Mueller, or Santini are any better than average in that category and Butcher is a pretty poor skater (Vatanen kind of reminds me of Wood a bit in that he's straight-line fast, but can't really control that well, which is not good skating). I think it's possible Smith comes in and is immediately the best skater on the back end.

This team definitely lacks size and general physical intensity. Size is certainly valuable, and we should get more of it. But look at a guy like Brian Boyle, who was certainly a valuable player to have but looked painfully out of place on this team at times. Take away his PP production and he was not very effective at all at even strength. Special teams guys are nice to have but I don't think we should be pursuing specialists with high picks. Improving there would be nice, but certainly not at the cost of raw talent.

I have no objection to taking a few bigger guys with some later picks but there are far more important things to worry about with this team IMO. We need upgrades at every area. Obviously it's easier for a smaller defenseman to get abused and exposed than it is for a forward. But personally, I'd rather have talented 5'10" guys that can skate more than equally talented 6'3" guys who can't. But it's up to Castron to make those decisions.

 

[Missionhockey]

I think the bigger issue with the Devils defense is their skating. Being small isn't as big of a problem if you can skate well. You can be small or you can be slow, you can't be both. Even the bigger guys you mentioned like Hedman, Giordano, Carlson, etc are all excellent skaters. And some of the best defensive defensemen to come along in the past decade - guys like McDonagh, Vlasic, Suter, etc - are not overly physical but rather rely on their timing and spacing to defend.

Severson is the best skating defenseman on this team, everyone else is average or worse. Greene was an excellent skater but has declined with age (as all players do). I don't think the likes of Vatanen, Mueller, or Santini are any better than average in that category and Butcher is a pretty poor skater (Vatanen kind of reminds me of Wood a bit in that he's straight-line fast, but can't really control that well, which is not good skating). I think it's possible Smith comes in and is immediately the best skater on the back end.

This team definitely lacks size and general physical intensity. Size is certainly valuable, and we should get more of it. But look at a guy like Brian Boyle, who was certainly a valuable player to have but looked painfully out of place on this team at times. Take away his PP production and he was not very effective at all at even strength. Special teams guys are nice to have but I don't think we should be pursuing specialists with high picks. Improving there would be nice, but certainly not at the cost of raw talent.

I have no objection to taking a few bigger guys with some later picks but there are far more important things to worry about with this team IMO. We need upgrades at every area. Obviously it's easier for a smaller defenseman to get abused and exposed than it is for a forward. But personally, I'd rather have talented 5'10" guys that can skate more than equally talented 6'3" guys who can't. But it's up to Castron to make those decisions.

I disagree with you when you say Mueller and Santini are average skaters. I think both of them (but Mueller especially) are pretty good skaters. I think the problem is they have pretty average hockey sense, especially when it comes with what to do with the puck. Those kind of issues are probably going to keep them as bottom pairing defenseman.

 

[Nubmer6]

I disagree with you when you say Mueller and Santini are average skaters. I think both of them (but Mueller especially) are pretty good skaters. I think the problem is they have pretty average hockey sense, especially when it comes with what to do with the puck. Those kind of issues are probably going to keep them as bottom pairing defenseman.

Mueller, for one, would do himself a favor if he gained some strength and started using his size more to dig pucks off the boards, and not get pushed off the puck as easily. A little snarl wouldn't hurt him.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

if weight is a factor, tampa is one of the bottom teams as well

i mean, no one team is extremely smaller in size/weight than the others, so it's prob a nonfactor is what i'm getting at

I guess I'm more worried about the defense than the whole team and I think that's what steve is worried about too.

Only d-man that matters on the devils who's over 6' is severson, who might as well be 5'8" 150 ib. Vatanen, butcher under 6'0", davies under 6', smith under 6'. I guess there's mueller but eh I don't think he's part of the future. It would be wise to draft some d-man with skill AND size/physicality.

The other issue is all of the devils d-men are slow.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think the bigger issue with the Devils defense is their skating. Being small isn't as big of a problem if you can skate well. You can be small or you can be slow, you can't be both. Even the bigger guys you mentioned like Hedman, Giordano, Carlson, etc are all excellent skaters. And some of the best defensive defensemen to come along in the past decade - guys like McDonagh, Vlasic, Suter, etc - are not overly physical but rather rely on their timing and spacing to defend.

Severson is the best skating defenseman on this team, everyone else is average or worse. Greene was an excellent skater but has declined with age (as all players do). I don't think the likes of Vatanen, Mueller, or Santini are any better than average in that category and Butcher is a pretty poor skater (Vatanen kind of reminds me of Wood a bit in that he's straight-line fast, but can't really control that well, which is not good skating). I think it's possible Smith comes in and is immediately the best skater on the back end.

This team definitely lacks size and general physical intensity. Size is certainly valuable, and we should get more of it. But look at a guy like Brian Boyle, who was certainly a valuable player to have but looked painfully out of place on this team at times. Take away his PP production and he was not very effective at all at even strength. Special teams guys are nice to have but I don't think we should be pursuing specialists with high picks. Improving there would be nice, but certainly not at the cost of raw talent.

I have no objection to taking a few bigger guys with some later picks but there are far more important things to worry about with this team IMO. We need upgrades at every area. Obviously it's easier for a smaller defenseman to get abused and exposed than it is for a forward. But personally, I'd rather have talented 5'10" guys that can skate more than equally talented 6'3" guys who can't. But it's up to Castron to make those decisions.

I find this to be a terrifically stated and well-thought out argument. And then I think -- I'm a forward skating into the zone with the puck. Who would I rather see in front of me -- Shayne Gostisbehere or Zdeno Chara? I mean, it's Gostisbehere by 1000x!

You're not thinking: 'I'd better not make a mistake, because this guy skates well and can make a quick transition pass'.

You're thinking: 'Oh crap, this dude will crush me.'

The fact is this. Teams need balanced defense cores. They need guys who can move the puck and guys who can keep the puck out of their own nets. The biggest mistake the analytics community keeps making is that they think you can win with one type of player. Sure, if that player is a rare, multi-dimensional superstar like Doughty or Byfuglien or Letang. But if your team had a blueline of six Jake Gardiners and you went up against Washington, you'd get crushed. I also think that that if you went into a series vs. Washington with six Ron Hainseys, you'd get crushed. But if you went against them with two Gardiners and two Hainseys and two Jake Muzzins you'd have a shot.

I'm not saying the Devils need size for sizes sake. They do not. They need physicality from a blueline which, in my estimation, is the softest in the entire NHL. Opposing forwards skate through the NJ zone with fearlessness and abandon, not even concerned about paying a price or taking a hit. All I'm saying is that this is a weakness which needs to be addressed, and that the Devils will be on the outside looking in to the playoffs next year again if they do not.

To me, the epitaph of the 2019-20 Devils can be summed up in three points:
1)Injuries
2)Goaltending woes
3)Too soft and too easily pushed around and too easy to play against, especially on D

Next year, its statistically unlikely the Devils injury woes are repeated to this degree. The goaltending looks to be far stronger with a tandem of a healthy Schneider and emerging Blackwood. But problem #3? Without Boyle, it looks worse than last year. This is, quite simply, a team which desperately needs a Ken Daneyko. Let's draft a couple kids who play that type of hard-nosed game on the blueline to alleviate this problem in the future.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I'm not saying the Devils need size for sizes sake. They do not. They need physicality from a blueline which, in my estimation, is the softest in the entire NHL. Opposing forwards skate through the NJ zone with fearlessness and abandon, not even concerned about paying a price or taking a hit. All I'm saying is that this is a weakness which needs to be addressed, and that the Devils will be on the outside looking in to the playoffs next year again if they do not.

This right here. People don't seem to understand though.

To me, the epitaph of the 2019-20 Devils can be summed up in three points:
1)Injuries
2)Goaltending woes
3)Too soft and too easily pushed around and too easy to play against, especially on D

Not just this year. It's been a theme since Shero took over. They got outmatched physicallly by a "soft" lightning team last year in the playoffs.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This right here. People don't seem to understand though.



Not just this year. It's been a theme since Shero took over. They got outmatched physicallly by a "soft" lightning team last year in the playoffs.

It is my conviction that people take too much stock into the analytics community. While puck possession is a major part of a successful NHL club, it is not the "be all, end all", so to speak. An analytic-based GM like Kyle Dubas in Toronto still is smart enough to see the need for a Ron Hainsey and a Frederik Gauthier and a Zach Hyman, and his team will be in the playoffs this year. An analytic-based GM like Tom Rowe took over a first-place Florida Panthers team and got rid of every physical presence he could, replaced them with unbelievably soft dumpster fires like Mark Pysyk and rode the team to the draft lottery in under a season.

There needs to be balance. A successful hockey club needs guys to put the puck in opposing nets AND guys to keep the puck out of their own net, possession players AND shut down players, skill guys AND physical guys. Washington won the cup last season with one of the more physical teams in the league. There is no way they would have even made it to the finals without the stellar playoff play of physical beasts Tom Wilson and Brooks Orpik. The team they played in Vegas would not have been their opponent without the stellar playoffs of physical beasts Ryan Reaves, Derek Engelland and Brayden McNabb. The two teams they beat to get there, Tampa Bay and Winnipeg, had two of the biggest and heaviest-playing blue lines in the NHL.

If I'm Ray Shero (who I constantly reiterate is doing a tremendous job), I don't rewrite the blueprint. I simply adjust it, and try to make an off-season deal for a Brandon Carlo or sign a Tyler Myers, then draft a Kaeden Korczak or Case McCarthy with one of my three second-round picks, maybe a Jake Lee with one of my two third-rounders. None of the guys I mention are "slow" or "poor with the puck". They're all just lunch-pail, physical players who keep the puck out of their own nets, punish opposing forwards and play a simple game in the offensive zone. A Brandon Carlo partnering, for instance, would free up a rookie Ty Smith to really light it up offensively in his rookie year next season.

 

[Khione]

Please dear hockeygods, let us win the draftlottery.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper Prospect of the Day:

LW Nick Robertson, Peterborough, OHL
The Devils have recently struck gold with a couple of undersized, ultra-skilled left wingers in Jesper Bratt and Jesper Boqvist. Robertson is certainly of this ilk, but also plays with a tenaciousness and has a slightly more projectable frame (more muscular, less lanky, despite a 5'9 height). Robertson scored 55 points in 54 games this season for the Petes, mostly due to very good skating, a terrific shot, and absolutely elite puck skills. His puck handling is clearly top 5 among all wingers in the 2019 draft -- he's just a magician with the biscuit on his stick.

It is difficult to project where Robertson will go in the draft. Were he 6'0, he'd be first-rounder... but teams no longer rely on measurements like they used to. So, could Robertson go in the late first? Perhaps. But he could also fall to the late second... where the Devils have a pair of picks. And Robertson is a potential home run pick there.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Sleeper Prospect of the Day:

LW Nick Robertson, Peterborough, OHL
The Devils have recently struck gold with a couple of undersized, ultra-skilled left wingers in Jesper Bratt and Jesper Boqvist. Robertson is certainly of this ilk, but also plays with a tenaciousness and has a slightly more projectable frame (more muscular, less lanky, despite a 5'9 height). Robertson scored 55 points in 54 games this season for the Petes, mostly due to very good skating, a terrific shot, and absolutely elite puck skills. His puck handling is clearly top 5 among all wingers in the 2019 draft -- he's just a magician with the biscuit on his stick.

It is difficult to project where Robertson will go in the draft. Were he 6'0, he'd be first-rounder... but teams no longer rely on measurements like they used to. So, could Robertson go in the late first? Perhaps. But he could also fall to the late second... where the Devils have a pair of picks. And Robertson is a potential home run pick there.

His older brother was a stars 2nd round pick in 2017 and lead the entire CHL in points this past regular season. Both seem like intriguing players to have in a prospect pool.

 

[StevenToddIves]

His older brother was a stars 2nd round pick in 2017 and lead the entire CHL in points this past regular season. Both seem like intriguing players to have in a prospect pool.

Yeah, his older brother is Jason Robertson, who looked terrific all year. Nick is smaller but a better shooter and puck handler. I'm sure many Devils fans would love to hear his name called in the second round, myself included.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I find this to be a terrifically stated and well-thought out argument. And then I think -- I'm a forward skating into the zone with the puck. Who would I rather see in front of me -- Shayne Gostisbehere or Zdeno Chara? I mean, it's Gostisbehere by 1000x!

You're not thinking: 'I'd better not make a mistake, because this guy skates well and can make a quick transition pass'.

You're thinking: 'Oh crap, this dude will crush me.'

The fact is this. Teams need balanced defense cores. They need guys who can move the puck and guys who can keep the puck out of their own nets. The biggest mistake the analytics community keeps making is that they think you can win with one type of player. Sure, if that player is a rare, multi-dimensional superstar like Doughty or Byfuglien or Letang. But if your team had a blueline of six Jake Gardiners and you went up against Washington, you'd get crushed. I also think that that if you went into a series vs. Washington with six Ron Hainseys, you'd get crushed. But if you went against them with two Gardiners and two Hainseys and two Jake Muzzins you'd have a shot.

I'm not saying the Devils need size for sizes sake. They do not. They need physicality from a blueline which, in my estimation, is the softest in the entire NHL. Opposing forwards skate through the NJ zone with fearlessness and abandon, not even concerned about paying a price or taking a hit. All I'm saying is that this is a weakness which needs to be addressed, and that the Devils will be on the outside looking in to the playoffs next year again if they do not.

To me, the epitaph of the 2019-20 Devils can be summed up in three points:
1)Injuries
2)Goaltending woes
3)Too soft and too easily pushed around and too easy to play against, especially on D

Next year, its statistically unlikely the Devils injury woes are repeated to this degree. The goaltending looks to be far stronger with a tandem of a healthy Schneider and emerging Blackwood. But problem #3? Without Boyle, it looks worse than last year. This is, quite simply, a team which desperately needs a Ken Daneyko. Let's draft a couple kids who play that type of hard-nosed game on the blueline to alleviate this problem in the future.

Thanks for taking the time to make these detailed posts.

In general I think we're on the same page for about 90% of this conversation. I think we both agree this team is very soft and needs an infusion of snarl. I suppose my main gripe is that I'm not picky about where the toughness comes from.

I think team toughness is more important than individual toughness or positional toughness. Obviously, clearing the crease is an important part of being a defenseman at the NHL level. And so is knowing how to use your body effectively in corners, how/when to punish vs how/when to shield, etc.

But at the same time, I think a few big heavy forechecking forwards in the mold of a Wood or Holik or Zubrus type would do wonders for this team (obviously, guys who fit the other criteria for the system - good skaters, defensively responsible, etc). I was a very strong advocate for trading for Nino before he got dealt to Carolina, and I think adding one forward like him would do more than adding one physical defenseman. But that's just my opinion.

Another reason the defense got exposed this year is just that, they were exposed. Having soft defenseman isn't as big of a concern when you're rolling 4 lines effectively and dominating ES possession. But when you have a bunch of AHLers and career journeymen in the lineup due to injuries, you're going to be defending a lot more, and that's when the size issue starts to tell.

Skating should still be the biggest asset we should be looking for, IMO. That's the way the league has been going for a while, and it's what our philosophy is built on. Adding some big tough guys would certainly be nice. I just think physicality in the traditional sense is more of a luxury item in today's NHL.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Thanks for taking the time to make these detailed posts.

In general I think we're on the same page for about 90% of this conversation. I think we both agree this team is very soft and needs an infusion of snarl. I suppose my main gripe is that I'm not picky about where the toughness comes from.

I think team toughness is more important than individual toughness or positional toughness. Obviously, clearing the crease is an important part of being a defenseman at the NHL level. And so is knowing how to use your body effectively in corners, how/when to punish vs how/when to shield, etc.

But at the same time, I think a few big heavy forechecking forwards in the mold of a Wood or Holik or Zubrus type would do wonders for this team (obviously, guys who fit the other criteria for the system - good skaters, defensively responsible, etc). I was a very strong advocate for trading for Nino before he got dealt to Carolina, and I think adding one forward like him would do more than adding one physical defenseman. But that's just my opinion.

Another reason the defense got exposed this year is just that, they were exposed. Having soft defenseman isn't as big of a concern when you're rolling 4 lines effectively and dominating ES possession. But when you have a bunch of AHLers and career journeymen in the lineup due to injuries, you're going to be defending a lot more, and that's when the size issue starts to tell.

Skating should still be the biggest asset we should be looking for, IMO. That's the way the league has been going for a while, and it's what our philosophy is built on. Adding some big tough guys would certainly be nice. I just think physicality in the traditional sense is more of a luxury item in today's NHL.

Agreed, as usual. While I would never defend giving such a huge contract to Milan Lucic or signing Zac Rinaldo, I firmly believe that a good blueline needs a couple of physical elements to dominate in the trenches. The Winnipeg Jets and Nashville Predators seem to give up one rebound goal in the crease per month, the Devils seem to give up one per game.