Prospect Info: 2019 Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 (post-deadline)

[StevenToddIves]

Enough with the false modesty. We all know you had Bratt ranked ahead of Nylander and Kunin.

I had Bratt ranked as a second-to-third rounder. He got my attention, quite frankly, because Corey Pronman was so high on him, so I watched more film on him and really enjoyed his game. So, I can't take credit -- Pronman was the first to really spotlight Bratt -- but needless to say I was thrilled when the Devils grabbed him in the 6th round.

As far as Nylander, I don't want to harp on the kid but there were elements surrounding both Nylander which had me rank them lower than pretty much everyone else in both of their draft years. I had them both as first rounders, but not as top 10 picks.

As for Kunin? I love the kid, I think he's just a terrific young player. I think he has 70-point upside. As poorly as GM Paul Fenton has run things in Minnesota, he would be another kid I would kick the tires on if I were Ray Shero. Fenton has shown more interest in making the Wild "his team" than in building a winner, in my mind. Some of his moves have been downright baffling.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper prospect of the day:

RW Tuukka Tieksola, Karpat, FINNISH JR.
Again, we have the type of prospect that a scout makes his reputation on. Reed-thin at 5'10-155, Tieksola has the typical lack-of-strength issues that give him issues losing battles along the boards and in the crease, and his shot is certainly below average. But if you can look beyond that and see his potential if he gains 20 pounds of muscle with a good workout regimen? You could have an amazing steal.

Tieksola has elite skating ability -- his speed and agility are both astounding. His puck handling is magnificent, and he has the ability to make ankle-breaking dekes and tape-to-tape passes at breakneck speeds. His passing ability is certainly that of a first-round caliber pick -- both highly creative and remarkably accurate.

If everything came together for Tieksola, in four to five years he can be the kind of top-6, electrifying winger who makes scouts scratch their heads for not regarding him higher on draft day, 2019. But again, unless his strength and shot improve to some degree, he could be plying his trade in Europe for pretty much his entire career, as we're not talking about a kid who will ever make it as a bottom-six guy. Tieksola can go anywhere from the early third round to the fifth round. As the Devils love this kind of player (many similar things were said about Jesper Bratt), he's a name for Devils fans to pay attention to from the third round and beyond.

 

[HBK27]

I had Bratt ranked as a second-to-third rounder. He got my attention, quite frankly, because Corey Pronman was so high on him, so I watched more film on him and really enjoyed his game. So, I can't take credit -- Pronman was the first to really spotlight Bratt -- but needless to say I was thrilled when the Devils grabbed him in the 6th round.

As far as Nylander, I don't want to harp on the kid but there were elements surrounding both Nylander which had me rank them lower than pretty much everyone else in both of their draft years. I had them both as first rounders, but not as top 10 picks.

As for Kunin? I love the kid, I think he's just a terrific young player. I think he has 70-point upside. As poorly as GM Paul Fenton has run things in Minnesota, he would be another kid I would kick the tires on if I were Ray Shero. Fenton has shown more interest in making the Wild "his team" than in building a winner, in my mind. Some of his moves have been downright baffling.

I never realized that some people had Bratt that high in their draft rankings.

Found this article where Pronman has him #49 overall.

Top 100 prospects for the 2016 NHL draft

Bratt was a useful player for AIK this season and one of the better under-18 scorers in the Allsvenskan the past few seasons. Bratt is a small yet exciting offensive player with dynamic qualities and an above-average skater with an explosive first step. When you add his impressive puck skills, he can be tough to handle coming through the neutral zone for defenders. He's a pretty smart two-way player as well. Bratt makes good decisions with the puck and sees the ice well, and despite his frame, he shows the ability to be quite solid defensively, even killing penalties in international play. He isn't the most physical player, and with a long road of bulking up in front of him, his drafting team will need to be patient.

He had Chychrun 11th and was also high on DeBrincat at #15 and Keller at #4. Fabbro (10th) was the highest available prospect on his list when we drafted.

 

[devilsblood]

Bratt and Nylander played on the same team in Swedish Juniors with Bratt outproducing the top 10 pick.

Bratt was younger too.

 

[My3Sons]

Bratt would have been picked higher if it wasn’t for that horn sticking out of his head.

 

[Oneiro]

One upside to this terrible season is getting a lot more time to pick Steven's brain on all these prospects, past and future.

Thanks, it's been real interesting.

 

[OmNomNom]

I never realized that some people had Bratt that high in their draft rankings.

Found this article where Pronman has him #49 overall.

Top 100 prospects for the 2016 NHL draft

Bratt was a useful player for AIK this season and one of the better under-18 scorers in the Allsvenskan the past few seasons. Bratt is a small yet exciting offensive player with dynamic qualities and an above-average skater with an explosive first step. When you add his impressive puck skills, he can be tough to handle coming through the neutral zone for defenders. He's a pretty smart two-way player as well. Bratt makes good decisions with the puck and sees the ice well, and despite his frame, he shows the ability to be quite solid defensively, even killing penalties in international play. He isn't the most physical player, and with a long road of bulking up in front of him, his drafting team will need to be patient.

He had Chychrun 11th and was also high on DeBrincat at #15 and Keller at #4. Fabbro (10th) was the highest available prospect on his list when we drafted.

so much for needing patience hahaha

 

[HBK27]

so much for needing patience hahaha

Haha, exactly. Also noticed he had Anderson ranked 33rd, Rykov 59th, Bastian 76th within his top 100.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Haha, exactly. Also noticed he had Anderson ranked 33rd, Rykov 59th, Bastian 76th within his top 100.

Corey Pronman is terrific at what he does. Although on occasion he falls into the draft-ranking trap of "taking chances for chances sake" (i.e.: did he really believe that Laine was a better pick than Matthews?), his research depth and writing acumen are just magnificent. Only Steve Kournianos matches his ability to dig up deep sleepers (see: Jesper Bratt) and, if you're on Twitter, Pronman's feed is a must-have.

I repeat over and over again when I talk of prospects that is important to read analyses from more accomplished writers than myself if you really want to get a well-rounded view of them, and then go on YouTube and look up some game film on them. This year, I have Bowen Byram and Alex Turcotte ranked much higher than most, while I have a player like Philip Broberg ranked lower than most. Don't just take my word for it, I've been wrong before, we all have. In 2016, I was called a few names by a few people for insisting that Keller would be far better than Alex Nylander, or for saying that Alex DeBrincat was a top-20 pick. But I also said that Florida's selection of Henrik Borgstrom was a waste of a first round pick, and like everyone else was appalled that Columbus took Dubois over Puljujarvi.

My three favorite guys to read are Pronman, Kournianos and Cam Robinson -- all great writers, great analysts and really nice guys.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I'll be honest, I don't have the balls to come out and say I have a prospect higher than 99% of the people who know what they're doing lol. I was very high on Byram but wasn't sure if I would rank him #3 and man was I glad to see you had him at #3 @StevenToddIves lol. I was starting think I might be crazy before then.

There are other prospects I liked too who climbed the rankings now lol. I'm going to say it was just luck on my part I don't think I'm ready to say I have any actual knowledge on evaluating prospects yet.

 

[thethinglonger]

Sleeper prospect of the day:

RW Tuukka Tieksola, Karpat, FINNISH JR.
Again, we have the type of prospect that a scout makes his reputation on. Reed-thin at 5'10-155, Tieksola has the typical lack-of-strength issues that give him issues losing battles along the boards and in the crease, and his shot is certainly below average. But if you can look beyond that and see his potential if he gains 20 pounds of muscle with a good workout regimen? You could have an amazing steal.

Tieksola has elite skating ability -- his speed and agility are both astounding. His puck handling is magnificent, and he has the ability to make ankle-breaking dekes and tape-to-tape passes at breakneck speeds. His passing ability is certainly that of a first-round caliber pick -- both highly creative and remarkably accurate.

If everything came together for Tieksola, in four to five years he can be the kind of top-6, electrifying winger who makes scouts scratch their heads for not regarding him higher on draft day, 2019. But again, unless his strength and shot improve to some degree, he could be plying his trade in Europe for pretty much his entire career, as we're not talking about a kid who will ever make it as a bottom-six guy. Tieksola can go anywhere from the early third round to the fifth round. As the Devils love this kind of player (many similar things were said about Jesper Bratt), he's a name for Devils fans to pay attention to from the third round and beyond.

Tieksola is definitely a guy I've been keeping an eye on. While I disagree in that I think he could stand to add some more speed to high skating, I love his vision, his ability to make passes in tight spaces, and his relative mistake-free hockey. He's an excellent transition player and the Karpat U20 powerplay runs through him.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Bratt has outperformed a lot of guys thst were taken in the first round. Including our pick, and a bunch of guys taken around our pick.

 

[MadDevil]

Bratt has outperformed a lot of guys thst were taken in the first round. Including our pick, and a bunch of guys taken around our pick.

I'm just going to pretend we took him in the first round if McLeod doesn't work out.

 

[glenwo2]

@Bleedred
4th Round – # 102 – Mikhail Maltsev – Left Wing – Russia U-18 Team
4th Round – # 105 – Evan Cormier – Goalie – Saginaw Spirit
5th Round – # 132 – Yegor Rykov – Defenseman – St. Petersburg Jrs (Russia)
6th Round – # 162 – Jesper Bratt – Left Wing – AIK (Swe-1)
7th Round – #192 – Jeremy Davies – Defenseman – Bloomington Thunder
Will any of these players in the late rounds evolve into NHL players? Probably not, but you never know. If they do, great. If not, Ray Shero tried. The only head-scratcher may be picking a goalie in the 4th round. If there is one position that the Devils are stacked, it’s between the pipes.

New Jersey Devils: 2016 Draft Recap


>>> Well that aged well.

BTW, looking back at that draft, it doesn't look all that impressive considering how slow to develop Mcleod is doing, though i do like Bastian's Net-front Presence as he shows great promise as a "garbage goals" scorer.

 

[longislanddevil]

The unexpected Kings victory over the Sharks has made this “race to the bottom” quite interesting. Of course they (like us and Detroit) are capable of losing to anyone. However, let’s take a look at their remaining schedule. I’m going to project they win roughly 50% of the winnable ones.

Anaheim (W)
at Calgary (L)
at Edmonton (W)
at Vancouver (L)
at Arizona (L)
Calgary (L)
Chicago (W)
at Anaheim (W)
Vegas (L)

LA is currently 3 points back of the Devils and have 2 games at hand. Under this projected scenario, they garner 8 more points. The difference is then 5 points which means the Devils can win just two more games. Remaining schedule with hopeful projections:

Arizona (L)
Buffalo (W)
at Detroit (L)
St Louis (L)
Rangers (W)
at Carolina (L)
at Florida (L)

I’m in the camp that badly wants Byram or Cozens if we don’t win a lottery ball for Hughes/Kakko. The only way to 100% guarantee this is picking in the top 4 (Cozens will almost undoubtedly be selected 3 or 4...Byram may be more dependent on which teams are selecting 3 or 4). Finishing with the 2nd worst record yields a 73% probability of a top 4 pick. In other words, there is a 27% chance of sliding down from 2 to 5. Finishing with the third worst records yields a 47% shot of a top 4 pick. What is interesting to note in this scenario is that the odds of picking 4 would be only 2.8% (meaning the bottom 3 teams would all pick 1, 2 and 3 with no surprises). That percentage scares me and in all likelihood means the Devils need to win a lottery ball.

The tank has now taken shape and it is extremely unlikely we finish anything “better” than 4th worst. Vancouver has gotten hot and Anaheim has won some games here and there. Conversely, the Rangers have lost 10 of 11 and are suddenly very close to being fifth worst. We have a 6 point lead over them and do play head-to-head one more time. They also have a ROW tiebreaker and a tough schedule (sans ganes against us and Ottawa). Even still, we should be safe there.

 

[Missionhockey]

Bratt has outperformed a lot of guys thst were taken in the first round. Including our pick, and a bunch of guys taken around our pick.

That's pretty much the main reason I'm not too disappointed with our 2016 draft. Mcleod might not be a top 6 guy, but we have Bratt so in the end, we come out kind of even. The only thing I'm disappointed in with that draft is missing out of Chychrun. IIRC he was a touted as a top 3 guy and fell all the way to the middle of the first.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'll be honest, I don't have the balls to come out and say I have a prospect higher than 99% of the people who know what they're doing lol. I was very high on Byram but wasn't sure if I would rank him #3 and man was I glad to see you had him at #3 @StevenToddIves lol. I was starting think I might be crazy before then.

There are other prospects I liked too who climbed the rankings now lol. I'm going to say it was just luck on my part I don't think I'm ready to say I have any actual knowledge on evaluating prospects yet.

I don't think it's wrong to rank a prospect higher or lower than everyone else, so long as you are prepared to back-up your argument with solid reasoning, even if it's subjective on your part.

For example, last year (as most of you know) I had K'Andre Miller ranked higher than pretty much anyone else (#10 overall). I wrote pages and pages explaining my reasoning for my high regard for K'Andre. When knowledgable fans questioned my high ranking, I had some enjoyable debates. When less knowledgable fans said he would be a bust like Eric Gelinas because they both were converted Fs (even though Gelinas and Miller had nothing else whatsoever in common stylistically), it was extremely frustrating to me. Similarly, I was recently frustrated by a poster on this thread who compared Jack Hughes to Scott Gomez (?!). Nothing makes me more ill at ease than someone calling a 18-year old kid chasing a dream a "bust" or "overrated" without offering any evidence as to why they think this.

Conversely, I was recently asked by a reader why I don't like Kirby Dach, since most have him in their top 5/6 and I rank him 10th. My answer was essentially "what would make you think I don't like Kirby Dach? I think the kid is the 10th best player in the world for his age group, that's pretty awesome!" We don't need to put these kids down. Because I personally believe that, were I an NHL GM, I would draft Alex Turcotte before Kirby Dach is not a slight on Dach, who I think will enjoy an outstanding NHL career. However, if you were to ask why I would take Turcotte over Dach, I could bore you for a half hour with my reasoning why. Maybe you'll disagree with my argument, but at least you'll be forced to admit that I actually have an argument.

My incessant rambling aside, I'm essentially saying that your prospect rankings are as significant as mine. It would be great to see you post them. Apparently you have a pretty good knack for it.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Tieksola is definitely a guy I've been keeping an eye on. While I disagree in that I think he could stand to add some more speed to high skating, I love his vision, his ability to make passes in tight spaces, and his relative mistake-free hockey. He's an excellent transition player and the Karpat U20 powerplay runs through him.

You are certainly the best on these threads at finding and evaluating Finnish prospects. Do you winter in Helsinki?

Also, where do you think Tieksola should be drafted and with what pick would you grab him if you were Ray Shero?

 

[StevenToddIves]

@Bleedred
4th Round – # 102 – Mikhail Maltsev – Left Wing – Russia U-18 Team
4th Round – # 105 – Evan Cormier – Goalie – Saginaw Spirit
5th Round – # 132 – Yegor Rykov – Defenseman – St. Petersburg Jrs (Russia)
6th Round – # 162 – Jesper Bratt – Left Wing – AIK (Swe-1)
7th Round – #192 – Jeremy Davies – Defenseman – Bloomington Thunder
Will any of these players in the late rounds evolve into NHL players? Probably not, but you never know. If they do, great. If not, Ray Shero tried. The only head-scratcher may be picking a goalie in the 4th round. If there is one position that the Devils are stacked, it’s between the pipes.

New Jersey Devils: 2016 Draft Recap


>>> Well that aged well.

BTW, looking back at that draft, it doesn't look all that impressive considering how slow to develop Mcleod is doing, though i do like Bastian's Net-front Presence as he shows great promise as a "garbage goals" scorer.

Haha, pretty funny stuff.

I must say that the 2016 draft was extremely productive. Even if McLeod peaks as a bottom-6 player, in any redraft Bratt would be a likely first-rounder, so it all works out. As far as Bastian goes, he may not have been the ideal second-rounder, but I still expect him to be a very good, physical, bottom-6 winger. And Jeremy Davies is the real wild card here -- in my mind he is a similar player to Will Butcher with perhaps slightly better upside, due to the fact that he's a superior skater.

Also, those picks left out my favorite pick of the 2016 draft -- Joey Anderson. I had Anderson ranked just outside the first round, and I think his upside is a 25-30-55, two-way second line winger who one day will wear a letter on his jersey -- he's simply the kind of player you win with.

 

[StevenToddIves]

That's pretty much the main reason I'm not too disappointed with our 2016 draft. Mcleod might not be a top 6 guy, but we have Bratt so in the end, we come out kind of even. The only thing I'm disappointed in with that draft is missing out of Chychrun. IIRC he was a touted as a top 3 guy and fell all the way to the middle of the first.

McAvoy was a much bigger miss than Chychrun in my book, but either D would have been preferable, in hindsight, to McLeod.

 

[thethinglonger]

You are certainly the best on these threads at finding and evaluating Finnish prospects. Do you winter in Helsinki?

Also, where do you think Tieksola should be drafted and with what pick would you grab him if you were Ray Shero?

You're too kind
I would love to visit Helsinki one day though!

Earlier this season I would have said that Tieksola would have been found in the 6th round or so...late late guy. However, he's made such significant progress that I can see a team reaching in the 3rd round to get him. I don't see any higher though. Looking forward to our draft discussions! Always appreciate your information and perspective. This will be a big draft for us.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

I'm liking Cozens alot after watching a highlight video of him on YouTube before. Big 6 foot 3 center with good wheels and scoring ability. We need more goal scoring ability and size in our top 6 and he could be a great addition if we miss out on Hughes , Kakko or Byram. It's tough to say if I would want Byram or Cozens at this point. We need another high end D man to go along with Smith.

 

[StevenToddIves]

You're too kind
I would love to visit Helsinki one day though!

Earlier this season I would have said that Tieksola would have been found in the 6th round or so...late late guy. However, he's made such significant progress that I can see a team reaching in the 3rd round to get him. I don't see any higher though. Looking forward to our draft discussions! Always appreciate your information and perspective. This will be a big draft for us.

I'd love to get a kid with upside like Tieksola in the 4th round, I would definitely grab him if he were still around in the 5th. I think he has the upside of being a Bratt/Talvitie-like late home run pick.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm liking Cozens alot after watching a highlight video of him on YouTube before. Big 6 foot 3 center with good wheels and scoring ability. We need more goal scoring ability and size in our top 6 and he could be a great addition if we miss out on Hughes , Kakko or Byram. It's tough to say if I would want Byram or Cozens at this point. We need another high end D man to go along with Smith.

I certainly agree with you on all points. If the Devils miss out on Hughes/Kakko, it would still be cause for celebration if they were to land Byram or Cozens.

 

[My3Sons]

I don't think it's wrong to rank a prospect higher or lower than everyone else, so long as you are prepared to back-up your argument with solid reasoning, even if it's subjective on your part.

For example, last year (as most of you know) I had K'Andre Miller ranked higher than pretty much anyone else (#10 overall). I wrote pages and pages explaining my reasoning for my high regard for K'Andre. When knowledgable fans questioned my high ranking, I had some enjoyable debates. When less knowledgable fans said he would be a bust like Eric Gelinas because they both were converted Fs (even though Gelinas and Miller had nothing else whatsoever in common stylistically), it was extremely frustrating to me. Similarly, I was recently frustrated by a poster on this thread who compared Jack Hughes to Scott Gomez (?!). Nothing makes me more ill at ease than someone calling a 18-year old kid chasing a dream a "bust" or "overrated" without offering any evidence as to why they think this.

Conversely, I was recently asked by a reader why I don't like Kirby Dach, since most have him in their top 5/6 and I rank him 10th. My answer was essentially "what would make you think I don't like Kirby Dach? I think the kid is the 10th best player in the world for his age group, that's pretty awesome!" We don't need to put these kids down. Because I personally believe that, were I an NHL GM, I would draft Alex Turcotte before Kirby Dach is not a slight on Dach, who I think will enjoy an outstanding NHL career. However, if you were to ask why I would take Turcotte over Dach, I could bore you for a half hour with my reasoning why. Maybe you'll disagree with my argument, but at least you'll be forced to admit that I actually have an argument.

My incessant rambling aside, I'm essentially saying that your prospect rankings are as significant as mine. It would be great to see you post them. Apparently you have a pretty good knack for it.

You should always give a poster coming to you for insight the benefit of the doubt. An innocent question about why do you like Cozens so much more than Dach or even “why don’t you like Dach” can be a poorly worded version of “ I see that a number of pundits differ in their evaluation of this player and you seem to be somewhat in the minority about where you rate him compared to his peers. Why would you prefer player X over him of you were drafting for a team?”

I think the context of the question. Matters more than the wording for many posters. Someone calling you out is one thing but someone seeking your input and food for thought probably isn’t trying to insult you or the players. I’ve asked you how Turcotte compared to Jost in his draft year for example and however I worded that I was very interested in your comparison.

Please keep sharing your thoughts with us. Sure there will be some naysayers but remember you are writing for those of us who value your thoughts.