Rumor: 2019-2020 Trade Rumours and Free Agent Discussion Version 7 | Post-Deadline Ed.

[Gatorbait19]

Why do you think our ownership isn't a big spender? We've never been afraid to spend to the cap and had one of the highest payroll pre cap.

When was the last time we spent to the cap or laid out a lot of money in free agency? I honestly can’t remember. Agreed we used to be big spenders pre-cap with the Sakic/Forsberg core, but that was 15+ years ago at this point

 

[Gatorbait19]

But that’s no fun to complain about. Sadly the narrative still lingers in some minds apparently.

It always was lazy and inaccurate. Not that Kroenke is a saint or deserves to be defended but the straight up misinformation campaign gets super tiresome.

Seems like you spun this however you wanted with your narrative. Pretty sure saying the team isn’t a big spender isn’t complaining (also, big difference between saying a team isn’t a big spender and calling them cheap like Melynk). Nor is the observation that since everyone in the league is losing millions (if not $10s of millions) right now, that a team who isn’t typically a big spender, is going to now want to increase their payroll.

 

[henchman21]

Avs were a cap team in 16-17 and have pushed up against it more than a few times in the cap era. I don't think that is a signal they are big spenders, but it doesn't seem there is a strict budget with the Avs either. This isn't an Anaheim/Ottawa situation nor is it a Toronto situation.

 

[Hasbro]

There is a difference between being cheap and just not spending on free agents like you are the Washington Redskins. Sakic made a run at Pananrin last offseason which I assume would not have meant the Avs dumping enough contracts to get to the floor.

This off season will be strange and they can't pile up too much in longterm commitments if it will handcuff them with Makar and MacKinnon's increase.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I think the cap situation is just more the ebbs and flows of having a good team and a bad team.

Sakic was prepared to give around 11-12 million to Panarin. Had that happened the Avs would be right up against the cap.

Once they pay more of their young core they’ll be a cap team. Right now, they’re just in preparation mode. No need to tie up money that you’re going to need later.

 

[Richard88]

This is a very young team with a really solid core already, and with numerous top prospects being added soon (Byram, Newhook, Kaut, Timmins, etc). The smart move is to be patient and let the team grow organically without making any expensive moves for 30+ players that could become a spanner in the works a couple of years down the line. That isn't to say that if a young star player (eg. Panarin) is available that we shouldn't go for it, but it's not prudent to take unnecessary risk that could handcuff the team. That's clearly Sakic's mentality too given that he wasn't keen to offer Panarin 11+ million beyond 4 years.

 

[Richard88]

Delete double post

 

[henchman21]

The NHL is trending younger and younger by the year, and primes and peaks are happening earlier and earlier. It would be a mistake to think that just because MacK and Rants are 23 and 24 this season, that they will be the same level of player in 4-5 more years or even further like 6-8 years. Statistically speaking, peaks happen somewhere in the 21-24 range... primes extend to 26-30. Then there is a sharp drop off. With how young the NHL is trending, I would expect even more pressure on 30+ players. Now that shouldn't stop the Avs from going after those sorts, but I would say, shorter term, higher AAV is where they should go if they go down the UFA path. IMO, that isn't what the Avs should really be pushing for though. Give me the 20-23 year old player either signed or under team control for 3-4-5 years, and just buck up and pay for quality. If the Avs want the best window, doing so while MacK is locked in to his deal is key make that window as good as possible. After that, there are two more seasons before Rants issue comes up again.

 

[Muffin]

When was the last time we spent to the cap or laid out a lot of money in free agency? I honestly can’t remember. Agreed we used to be big spenders pre-cap with the Sakic/Forsberg core, but that was 15+ years ago at this point

We were a cap team throughout the coach Roy era. We didn't spend to the cap in the last few years because we were rebuilding. We tried chasing Panarin last year and there there was no one else worth spending money on after that fell through. We'll be close to the cap again after re-signing all our players.

Throwing money at aging veterans for no reason was what got us into those horrific years in the first place.

 

[henchman21]

Throwing money at aging veterans for no reason was what got us into those horrific years in the first place.

I don't agree with that... having no semblance of an idea of how to draft and develop good defensemen 09-13 rebuild. The Avs developed a very solid group of young forwards to build around in a short time. Duchene, ROR, Landy, and MacK is an elite core forward group (especially when you consider who else was around). Varly, when healthy, was a plenty good enough goalie to get positive results. The defense was 100% reliant on EJ being a top end #1D and relying on whatever makeshift they could pull out of the rest. The blind squirrel found a gem in Barrie, but they utterly failed in every single other aspect of drafting defensemen. You could probably make a real good argument the Avs would have been on a completely different path if they went Jones over MacK... or Klefbom over Siemens. The complete inability to get a solid group of young defensemen killed any shot of any prior iteration of the rebuild working.

 

[Gatorbait19]

We were a cap team throughout the coach Roy era. We didn't spend to the cap in the last few years because we were rebuilding. We tried chasing Panarin last year and there there was no one else worth spending money on after that fell through. We'll be close to the cap again after re-signing all our players.

Throwing money at aging veterans for no reason was what got us into those horrific years in the first place.

I’m not discounting the Panarin aspect and that’s one of the reasons why I’ve maintained ownership is not cheap. My take view is similar to Hench’s. We’re not big spenders, but we arent cheap.

I don’t want us giving out bloated/bad contracts and it’s a big reason why we’re in such a good position. But my whole point was about Petro.

Maybe we really will be in on him (irrespective of the future cap issues, fit, etc) but I think chances of that happening probably took a big hit as a result of coronavirus. The lower cap than anticipated by $3-5m, as well as the fact the team is paying a ton of expenses and making no revenue right now could make it a huge loss. Given that, few owners are going to want to give out a $70m contract to anyone, let alone a 31y dman.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I don't agree with that... having no semblance of an idea of how to draft and develop good defensemen 09-13 rebuild. The Avs developed a very solid group of young forwards to build around in a short time. Duchene, ROR, Landy, and MacK is an elite core forward group (especially when you consider who else was around). Varly, when healthy, was a plenty good enough goalie to get positive results. The defense was 100% reliant on EJ being a top end #1D and relying on whatever makeshift they could pull out of the rest. The blind squirrel found a gem in Barrie, but they utterly failed in every single other aspect of drafting defensemen. You could probably make a real good argument the Avs would have been on a completely different path if they went Jones over MacK... or Klefbom over Siemens. The complete inability to get a solid group of young defensemen killed any shot of any prior iteration of the rebuild working.

I get Klefbom over Siemens, but why would Jones over MacKinnon have helped the Avs in those early years? Jones didn’t hit his form until 4-5 years after he was drafted.

 

[Pokecheque]

When was the last time we spent to the cap or laid out a lot of money in free agency? I honestly can’t remember. Agreed we used to be big spenders pre-cap with the Sakic/Forsberg core, but that was 15+ years ago at this point

They effectively went bottom-barrel budget once the plug was officially pulled in 2008. Part of that, according to what I've read, is that they not only got burned badly that year with a bad, very expensive roster (they were up against the cap that year BTW, probably the biggest reason Giguere got fired and isn't even in hockey anymore) but there was also a mixup of sorts with Rob Blake previously. The league initially told them a signing bonus due to him would not count against the cap, and then later said it would. From what I remember, that rendered them unable to re-sign him. I don't know if that was their spin at the time or if it was true, it was a while ago so whatever. I do remember their official party line was that #1, they were waiting for the next CBA to be ratified (and they did indeed start spending again once that happened) and #2, they were okay with spending, but they wanted bang for their buck. If they were going to spend to the cap, they wanted a contender. Since then I think they've more than proven their willingness to spend. This isn't the Bruins under Harry Sinden, who continually let talented players walk year after year once they supposedly asked for too much money.

And I guess that's where my primary qualm comes from regarding the days from 2009 to 2013. They not only slashed payroll, they effectively quieted their spending EVERYWHERE. It wasn't a rebuild so much as it was a holding pattern. Even Greg from Accounting and Sacco always felt like interim guys during their tenure.

 

[henchman21]

I'm sure EJ would love having Pietrangelo take his spot twice!

 

[Pokecheque]

I get Klefbom over Siemens, but why would Jones over MacKinnon have helped the Avs in those early years? Jones didn’t hit his form until 4-5 years after he was drafted.

Which is more or less in line with the developmental curve of most defensemen, no? I'd also argue that Jones really didn't get tons of opportunities on a very deep blueline corps in Nashville the time he was there. I imagine the Preds deeply regret that move nowadays.

If they had opted to draft Jones instead of MacKinnon there may have been a larger onus on management's part to keep O'Reilly, and maybe Duchene as well. Hell, maybe they hold onto Stastny in addition. That's a pretty solid forward corps to go along with a Jones/EJ/Barrie-helmed defensive corps. I think that has the markings of being a contender.

 

[henchman21]

I get Klefbom over Siemens, but why would Jones over MacKinnon have helped the Avs in those early years? Jones didn’t hit his form until 4-5 years after he was drafted.

Jones hit his form the second he got traded to Columbus. He stepped into being the #1 there and was awesome immediately. So more like 2.5 years. But it would have given the Avs a much more balanced team. Then keep ROR paying whatever he wanted while not having Duchene pull his cry baby act of not being the top dog here. The Avs would have had 2 good centers (3 if they could have kept Stastny), a top line wing, a stud #1D in Jones, a solid top 4 D in EJ (in the timeframe we are talking), a high end offensive defensemen, and a solid starting goalie. The Avs would have a more balanced and better base to build from. They probably wouldn't have had as good of 13-14, but I think you could reasonably say the 15-16 team would have been a lot better.

 

[Pokecheque]

IMO the failure by the organization to view the surges in '09-10 and especially '13-14 as flukes threw what could have been a proper rebuild in that time out the window. I still say the offseason of 2014 effectively torpedoed the organization's chances and it would take a few more seasons and the 2017 Mega-Tank to dig their way out. In essence, it convinced those in charge that things were going just fine, when in reality, they weren't.

 

[PAZ]

IMO the failure by the organization to view the surges in '09-10 and especially '13-14 as flukes threw what could have been a proper rebuild in that time out the window. I still say the offseason of 2014 effectively torpedoed the organization's chances and it would take a few more seasons and the 2017 Mega-Tank to dig their way out. In essence, it convinced those in charge that things were going just fine, when in reality, they weren't.

Who knows how everything would've played out in retrospect, but having to go through a 2nd 'rebuild' brought us Rantanen, Makar, Girard, Byram +. I agree they were a bit shortsighted in their approach, but with a bit of luck it's probably the best outcome that could've happened for the Avs.

We still would've had a shot with our old core, but even with proper moves there would've been some flaws.

 

[henchman21]

IMO the failure by the organization to view the surges in '09-10 and especially '13-14 as flukes threw what could have been a proper rebuild in that time out the window. I still say the offseason of 2014 effectively torpedoed the organization's chances and it would take a few more seasons and the 2017 Mega-Tank to dig their way out. In essence, it convinced those in charge that things were going just fine, when in reality, they weren't.

I think either one could have worked if the Avs had figured out how to draft and develop defensemen properly. From the 2001 until now, the only Avs drafted defensemen to have more than passing success with the Avs is Barrie. He's the only selection by the Avs to actually work out on that end of the ice for the team. The Avs traded away some good players, and Shatty directly brought in EJ... but there was a complete lack of ability to draft and develop defensemen for nearly 2 decades. If you're constantly having to trade or sign for your defensive core, you're eventually going to run into issues. Sadly for the Avs that issue was there for 8+ years when the first rebuild hit and didn't get fixed until recently. You just can't build a team without defensemen... the Avs are living proof of that.

If the Avs could have figured it out with Boychuck, 2009 might have played out very differently.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I get Klefbom over Siemens, but why would Jones over MacKinnon have helped the Avs in those early years? Jones didn’t hit his form until 4-5 years after he was drafted.

Well our forward core would've been Stats, Duchene, ROR and Landy which is more than good enough to compete. Than you add a future top 3(in the league) dman to a dcore that only has Barrie and EJ as respectable dmen and that is a big boon to the the balance of that team. Obviously things have turned out fine, but theres still an argument for Jones.

 

[Pokecheque]

Who knows how everything would've played out in retrospect, but having to go through a 2nd 'rebuild' brought us Rantanen, Makar, Girard, Byram +. I agree they were a bit shortsighted in their approach, but with a bit of luck it's probably the best outcome that could've happened for the Avs.

We still would've had a shot with our old core, but even with proper moves there would've been some flaws.

There will be flaws with the latest iteration of the Avs as well. No team is going to patch all the holes in a given roster, the cap effectively ensures that. It just would've been a very different type of team, that's all.

I think we can look at it both ways--we can see the good that came out of a decade of failure, and also be critical of that decade of failure.

 

[Pokecheque]

I think either one could have worked if the Avs had figured out how to draft and develop defensemen properly. From the 2001 until now, the only Avs drafted defensemen to have more than passing success with the Avs is Barrie. He's the only selection by the Avs to actually work out on that end of the ice for the team. The Avs traded away some good players, and Shatty directly brought in EJ... but there was a complete lack of ability to draft and develop defensemen for nearly 2 decades. If you're constantly having to trade or sign for your defensive core, you're eventually going to run into issues. Sadly for the Avs that issue was there for 8+ years when the first rebuild hit and didn't get fixed until recently. You just can't build a team without defensemen... the Avs are living proof of that.

If the Avs could have figured it out with Boychuck, 2009 might have played out very differently.

Oh yes, and I still think Quenneville played a role in the screwup with Boychuk...but whatever.

I just think those two fluke runs, much like the Rockies' fluke run to the World Series in 2007, allowed a bad regime to stay in place that clearly wasn't getting the job done. It REALLY screwed things up in 2014 when the Roy/Sakic two-headed monster just handed out a whole slew of bad contracts because they thought they were farther along in the rebuild than they actually were. I still wonder why in hell Pracey was allowed to run another draft after there were clear disagreements between him and management in 2013.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Which is more or less in line with the developmental curve of most defensemen, no? I'd also argue that Jones really didn't get tons of opportunities on a very deep blueline corps in Nashville the time he was there. I imagine the Preds deeply regret that move nowadays.

If they had opted to draft Jones instead of MacKinnon there may have been a larger onus on management's part to keep O'Reilly, and maybe Duchene as well. Hell, maybe they hold onto Stastny in addition. That's a pretty solid forward corps to go along with a Jones/EJ/Barrie-helmed defensive corps. I think that has the markings of being a contender.

I don’t know, they would have been good, but I don’t think contenders. They would have stayed afloat longer, but would not be as good as they are now.

Jones is great, MacKinnon is a MVP caliber player.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

We can play the what if game I guess, but I don’t see a better outcome than a Makar/MacKinnon/Rantanen led team.

Sure the ROR/Jones led group have been good, but by the time Jones became great ROR was 28. Stastny would be in his early 30’s. It’s a much shorter window.

I know it took a couple years of sucking to get here, but as a fan you have to love the fact that we are heading into the best years of Avalanche hockey since the glory days.

 

[henchman21]

I don’t know, they would have been good, but I don’t think contenders. They would have stayed afloat longer, but would not be as good as they are now.

Jones is great, MacKinnon is a MVP caliber player.

MVP doesn’t go to defensemen in today’s NHL... but Jones is arguably the best defensemen in the world today. Definitely top 3. MacK isn’t the best forward in the world, but is in the argument for top 3. Both are elite players of similar calibers. It isn’t about one being better than the other, but how the teams could be built around them.