I had too much time so I went through the exercise of estimating next year's cap hit (20-21) and how much room we would have for adding a top 6 winger or 3C. I came-up with only $5M available... I then estimated the following year (21-22) and came-up with a cap hit of $84M. Here it is, with my assumptions, I rounded numbers also, feel free to comment.
20-21
G1 - Gru - $3.3M
G2 - Frank - $2M
D1 - EJ - $6M
D1 - Sam - $5M
D2 - Makar - $0.9M
D2 - Gaves - $2.5M (estimated as RFA)
D3 - Cole - $4.25M
D3 - Byram - $0.950
7th D - UFA signing - $1.2M (Zadorov traded, Timmins in the AHL until injury hits)
F1 - Mac - $6.3M
F1 - Rant - $9.25M
F1 - Landy - $5.6M
F2 - Naz - $4.5M
F2 - Bura - $5.75M (estimated as RFA)
F2 - UFA - $XX (see cap room left at the end)
F3 - Compher - $3.5M
F3 - Donskoi - $3.9M
F3 - Nich - $2.75M (estimated as RFA)
F4 - Bellem - $1.8M
F4 - Calvert - $2.8M
F4 - Jost - $1.5M (estimated as RFA)
13th F - Kamenev - $1M (estimated as RFA)
14th F - Kaut/O'Connor - $0.9M
TOTAL CAP HIT = $75.7M - leaving $5.8M for the missing forward IF the CAP stay at $81.5M.
Not lets try 21-22 with that new forward at $5M
21-22
G1 - Gru - $5M (signed as UFA - Gru or someone else, but I don't think they do their cup run with Frank and another replacement. They'll sign someone solid so I'm puting $5M there. Should probably be $6M)
G2 - Frank - $2M
D1 - EJ - $6M
D1 - Sam - $5M
D2 - Makar - $8.5M (estimated as RFA, could easily be higher...
D2 - Gaves - $2.5M (signed as RFA the year before)
D3 - Timmins - $0.9M (replaced Cole)
D3 - Byram - $0.950
7th D - UFA signing - $1.2M (still need a 7th Dman)
F1 - Mac - $6.3M
F1 - Rant - $9.25M
F1 - Landy - $7.5M (estimated as UFA
F2 - Naz - $4.5M
F2 - Bura - $5.75M (signed as RFA the year before)
F2 - UFA - $5M (signed as UFA the year before)
F3 - Compher - $3.5M
F3 - Donskoi - $3.9M
F3 - Newhook - $0.9M
F4 - Bower - $0.9M
F4 - Kaut - $0.9M
F4 - UFA 4th liner - $1.5M (estimated as UFA)
13th F - Kamenev - $1M (could be anyone)
14th F - O'Connor - $0.9M (could be anyone)
TOTAL CAP HIT = $84M - hard topredict what the cap will be. But this is manageable.
So based on these assumptions, a $5M UFA could make sense for the coming year and the one after.
But that also mean that we will need ALL these ELC to make it work: Byram, Timmins, Newhook, Kaut, Bower and O'Connor. So trading these gius to acquire the missing forward could result in issues down the road, unless other prospects like Kovalenko or Rampa make it.
Expansion will also play a role but kind of hard to predict...