2019-20 Roster Speculation Pt. 2

[Jim Bob]

I didn't seem to argue with this that we should improve the protection, it just seems to me that it’s time to trade Risto to help in top 6.

If they can make a deal that improves the team, I'm all for it.

If all they get back is a bunch of junk that doesn't help the team in the name of "shaking up the core", then no thank you.

I don't buy into the "addition by subtraction" with Risto. They need to figure out a way to get improved play on defense.

And giving Risto's minutes to Nelson & Bogosian doesn't make the team better, IMO.

 

[GellMann]

No one has answered me in the Twitter-verse about how Zaitsev, who has issues exiting his own zone that have been detailed out by some stat-a-holics in the Leaf Blog-o-sphere, is worth defending as a guy who has had hard use in areas that don't fit his skills but had an appreciable bump in his metrics playing with Jake Muzzin is yet Ristolainen, with similar issues and yet even WORSE use and QOT is a giant cow pie.

I appreciate you having pulled those numbers. Context matters. I love me some RAPM, but it has to be looked at in the context of the team a player is on, the role they are being used, their deployment, and teammates. The poster-boy for "get this guy off my team, he's dead" to "hey, Cooper is a genius" has to be Girardi pre-and-post buyout. I keep hearing how players don't change their spots, yet I keep seeing these charts with variability from year to year. And I keep seeing guys who are crushed in those charts getting contracts and being in demand in the hockey world -- which might be old school mentality that they are valuing visual keys that aren't important for actual results, but I have a feeling someone looking at a player being deployed in shut-down role vs. someone being deployed in an offensive role who is viewing the context of it would notice. And the context would be decisive.

Short answer: I agree.

This is the point of the regression in RAPM for what it's worth.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

At this point my greatest hope for this off-season is that it's Jason Botterill's last as Sabres GM. He has a couple of months to change the trajectory but I've seen no evidence he's capable of that.

 

[NEcoli]

I agree, but he’s an upgrade over Sobotka and Okposo. If we can get him for futures I think it would be a smart decision.

Okposo isn't going anywhere, and pretty much any forward in the league would be an upgrade over Sobotka. Why settle for a slightly less awful player? Aim higher.

 

[Fezzy126]

This is the point of the regression in RAPM for what it's worth.

When the model tells me that Gagner has a greater impact than Kopitar, it tells me that they have unsuccessfully translated their regression model from basketball to hockey... I get that there are going to be statistical outliers in any model, but as @Chainshot mentioned, the RAPM charts dangerously ignore context, and the inconsistency for individual players from year to year is staggering.

To be honest I'd rather people go back to posting Hero & Warrior charts, at least those used more raw data and less interpolation leading to faulty conclusions

 

[WeDislikeEich]

I’m really starting to dislike this guy. Between his Risto trade return tweet and this one, he keeps scaring the crap out of me. Really, really hope he’s just throwing stuff at the wall.

Please Botts, don’t ruin the draft for me tonight with a terrible trade.

I’d be ok with Vesey, but only for a mid/late pick or something like that. No interest in Vesey for McCabe.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

Vesey is about as appealing as taking on a one year expiring contract. Pass.

 

[Reddawg]

Vesey is about as appealing as taking on a one year expiring contract. Pass.

Far, far less, considering the last one-year expiring contract we took on.

 

[old kummelweck]

What's interesting is the Rangers seem to have a quick turn-around planned. So why wouldn't Vesey be in those plans? They basically have the same need as the Sabres to build out scoring lines and bolster their D. So why exactly is there a fit with a McCabe/Vesey swap. It doesn't make sense to me.

 

[Steddy33]

Fack no. Vesey for McCabe is doggy doo

 

[Reddawg]

I’d be ok with Vesey, but only for a mid/late pick or something like that. No interest in Vesey for McCabe.

We already threw away one midround pick on Vesey, now we have to throw McCabe away on a player who just doesn't want to be here at all?

I don't understand the sense of trading an asset for this particular player. He had his chance and refused to even entertain the idea of signing with us, and now we're going to acquire him away from a better team with a brighter future? That should make him extra pleasant to be around. Nothing but upside here.

I'm really running out of things I can point to in support of team management. If this trade goes through, my god...

 

[WeDislikeEich]

Anyone listening to Dreger on WGR right now?

Mentioned something about Nylander and Vesey, but I didn’t catch the whole thing.

No way Nylander moves for Vesey, right?

Edit - I think he said Nylander has been discussed and could be on the move, but not necessarily in a Vesey trade.

 

[SundherDome]

I'll kill him if he moves Nylander

 

[Goathead]

So Bott’s big thing is character as is the reason he traded he who shall not be named. But acquiring a guy who doesn’t want to be here is completely acceptable to him? Get this guy the **** outta here. I’m flabbergasted that we are even thinking about Vesey. HES NOT GOOD.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

We already threw away one midround pick on Vesey, now we have to throw McCabe away on a player who just doesn't want to be here at all?

I don't understand the sense of trading an asset for this particular player. He had his chance and refused to even entertain the idea of signing with us, and now we're going to acquire him away from a better team with a brighter future? That should make him extra pleasant to be around. Nothing but upside here.

I'm really running out of things I can point to in support of team management. If this trade goes through, my god...

Vesey is FAR from my first choice for a trade acquisition. But the Sabres do need depth, and if he only costs a 4th or later, I can live with it.

If they trade McCabe for Vesey, I’ll be pissed. Even more so if he walks in a year. We’d be trading a decent top 4 RFA defenseman for a middle 6 forward who will be UFA in a year. That doesn’t sound like a very good deal to me.


I’m trying not to get too worried yet, though. It’s not like Chad Dedominicis is Bob McKenzie or something.

I certainly don’t believe everything he says without question, that’s for sure.

 

[jc17]

Whew boy, I've tried to give botts the benefit of the doubt on many things but if any of these rumors come true I'll drive to the pitchfork store. My car fits 4 passengers if anyone's interested

 

[Fjordy]

If the deal on Vesey is McCabe or Nylander it will be terrible.

 

[BuffaloGooner]

Rumorz really send this board off the deep end

With that said don’t f***ing trade McCabe for Jimmy f***ing Vesey

 

[CaptPantalones]

I’m really starting to dislike this guy. Between his Risto trade return tweet and this one, he keeps scaring the crap out of me. Really, really hope he’s just throwing stuff at the wall.

Please Botts, don’t ruin the draft for me tonight with a terrible trade.

I’d be ok with Vesey, but only for a mid/late pick or something like that. No interest in Vesey for McCabe.

Hes got some pretty good ties. If hes posting it, then he has some good ties. He doesnt just post for the sake of posting

 

[CaptPantalones]

Anyone listening to Dreger on WGR right now?

Mentioned something about Nylander and Vesey, but I didn’t catch the whole thing.

No way Nylander moves for Vesey, right?

Edit - I think he said Nylander has been discussed and could be on the move, but not necessarily in a Vesey trade.

He said nylander and 31 are in play for moves, and nylander specifically he said may not be tied to Vesey

 

[UnleashRasmus]

At this point my greatest hope for this off-season is that it's Jason Botterill's last as Sabres GM. He has a couple of months to change the trajectory but I've seen no evidence he's capable of that.

Would you rather have Chuck Fletcher, who just added close to 15M in cap on with three players. Overpaying one, sending a relatively useful headache in Gudas for a downgrade defensively while taking on more cap and paying 30 percent of Gudas' remaining contract. I understand the feeling, but there are few GM's that are perfect. We're not in the running for Yzerman, BriesBois etc. New ownership is a more realistic fantasy. The same goes for still venting about ROR. He's gone, move on. There's nothing we can do about it.

 

[Fearnot]

Selling low really hasn't worked out well for us lately, don't rush trades because your seat is getting hot.

 

[Kevbeau]

Fack no. Vesey for McCabe is doggy doo

Don’t you do it Botts!

 

[SundherDome]

Would you rather have Chuck Fletcher, who just added close to 15M in cap on with three players. Overpaying one, sending a relatively useful headache in Gudas for a downgrade defensively while taking on more cap and paying 30 percent of Gudas' remaining contract. I understand the feeling, but there are few GM's that are perfect. We're not in the running for Yzerman, BriesBois etc. New ownership is a more realistic fantasy. The same goes for still venting about ROR. He's gone, move on. There's nothing we can do about it.

Honestly, give me Chuck at this point.

Side note i love the rumor that Chiarelli is probably joining Bennings staff

 

[Team Cozens]

I'll kill him if he moves Nylander

Nylander and Risto for Letang?

or Nylander, McCabe and #31 for Letang (to replace Risto)

Trade Risto for 2C.