He was an RFA, and I doubt the Canucks would have qualified him....so he just left early.did goldobin seriously flee to KHL?
Yup. Not an NHL player without the puck. And not good enough with the puck to compensate for his very poor play without it.did goldobin seriously flee to KHL?
Great, then let's expand the sample size to a point where it's meaningful. Click around other rosters on hockeydb. It isn't always clear at what point in a season an AHL player gets a stint in the NHL, so the appearance of 100 or more consecutive AHL games may not always be entirely accurate, but it's usually near the end of a season.This was a discussion of whether Lind was projecting as a top-6 forward. Yes, there are plenty of fungible bottom-6 types who played 100+ games in the AHL.
There are three top-6 forwards on Tampa's roster alone who played more than 100 AHL games before playing a single game in the NHL -- Ondrej Palat, Yanni Gourde, and Tyler Johnson. Everyone's heard of Mike Hoffman, of course. Tomas Tatar and Phillipe Danault both played well over 100 AHL games each before making the league at 22. They were Montreal's two leading scorers this season. Almost every team has forwards like this. They aren't outliers or unicorns.This was a discussion of whether Lind was projecting as a top-6 forward. Yes, there are plenty of fungible bottom-6 types who played 100+ games in the AHL.
In fairness to MS it has not been something that ever as happened in Vancouver. Rarely if ever has team had depth and prospects at the same time. It will be shortlived with cap crunch but team has a lot of depth with good prospects right now.There are three top-6 forwards on Tampa's roster alone who played more than 100 AHL games before playing a single game in the NHL -- Ondrej Palat, Yanni Gourde, and Tyler Johnson. Everyone's heard of Mike Hoffman, of course. Tomas Tatar and Phillipe Danault both played well over 100 AHL games each before making the league at 22. They were Montreal's two leading scorers this season. Almost every team has forwards like this. They aren't outliers or unicorns.
Great, then let's expand the sample size to a point where it's meaningful. Click around other rosters on hockeydb. It isn't always clear at what point in a season an AHL player gets a stint in the NHL, so the appearance of 100 or more consecutive AHL games may not always be entirely accurate, but it's usually near the end of a season.
Alec Martinez -- played 120 AHL games before hitting the league, not a regular until 23, peaked as a top-pairing defender.
Jonathan Marchessault -- played about 300 AHL games and 4 NHL games to start his career, not a regular until 23, peaked as a 1st line forward.
Conor Garland -- played at least 110 AHL games before playing an NHL game, not a regular until 22, 2nd line forward.
Michael Grabner -- played about 150 AHL games before playing in the NHL, not a regular until 23, peaked as a standout 2nd line forward and scored 25+ goals three times.
Tyler Bertuzzi -- played over 100 AHL games before playing in the NHL, not a regular until 22. Solid 2nd line forward.
Anthony Mantha -- played over 100 AHL games before playing in the NHL, not a regular until 22. borderline 1st line forward.
This is just looking at a handful of teams, and doesn't even mention that many other good players played in comparable minor leagues at the same age before making the NHL.
There are three top-6 forwards on Tampa's roster alone who played more than 100 AHL games before playing a single game in the NHL -- Ondrej Palat, Yanni Gourde, and Tyler Johnson. Everyone's heard of Mike Hoffman, of course. Tomas Tatar and Phillipe Danault both played well over 100 AHL games each before making the league at 22. They were Montreal's two leading scorers this season. Almost every team has forwards like this. They aren't outliers or unicorns.
There are three top-6 forwards on Tampa's roster alone who played more than 100 AHL games before playing a single game in the NHL -- Ondrej Palat, Yanni Gourde, and Tyler Johnson. Everyone's heard of Mike Hoffman, of course. Tomas Tatar and Phillipe Danault both played well over 100 AHL games each before making the league at 22. They were Montreal's two leading scorers this season. Almost every team has forwards like this. They aren't outliers or unicorns.
You also have to look at the age the guys step into the AHL. For example, Kole Lind stepped into Utica as a teenager in his draft +2 season, whereas a guy like Zack MacEwen turned pro at 21. 12-18 months can make a huge difference at that point in a players development.
Sure, but MS was only ever stating a general rule. The intention was never that it would literally apply to every situation, and this was pretty obvious. It’s good that MS even bothers to try to ground expectations around here. As someone who has been around this forum since the early 2000s, I can tell you that people are generally overly optimistic.
It’s easier to be right if you’re pessimistic especially with the picks that aren’t top 10. Odds are pretty good that most will bust.Guilty. Though many are overly pessimistic too
It’s easier to be right if you’re pessimistic especially with the picks that aren’t top 10. Odds are pretty good that most will bust.
You also have to look at the age the guys step into the AHL. For example, Kole Lind stepped into Utica as a teenager in his draft +2 season, whereas a guy like Zack MacEwen turned pro at 21. 12-18 months can make a huge difference at that point in a players development.
Guilty. Though many are overly pessimistic too
I feel like the best mentality with non-top 10 prospects is "hope for the best, expect the worst." Sounds cynical but I think it's the best way to not get your hopes up. We've seen too many Jensen, Schroeder, Rodin, etc. situations.
People get fooled because every player *seems* to improve after being drafted and that makes it easy to craft a narrative that 'this is a good pick that I should be excited about'. And of course pretty much every player *does* improve, especially considering they spend another couple years getting older relative to their CHL competition or spend years in the NCAA getting older relative to that competition, or go to the AHL and have a better 2nd year than their first year.
The trick is to be able to separate 'progress' that is actually totally average and not leading anywhere from the guys who are actually separating themselves and dominating. If you're looking at a Tyler Madden who moved up levels and dominated in the NCAA and WJC and would probably go in the top 30-40 picks in a re-draft, that's a player to get excited about. If you're looking at some CHLer who went from a 50-point guy to a 65-point guy in two years after being drafted ... not so much. Despite what seems like improvement, that player is still tracking to bust.
Exactly. A 2nd-round draft pick has to develop at a higher than normal rate to become a full-time NHL player. The standard rate of development makes them quality AHLers who get a chance or two in the NHL but don't stick and thereafter appear only as call-up guys for when injuries strike (e.g., Justin Bailey). The below-average developers never see the NHL (Dylan Blujus is a prime example; strictly AHL contracts since his ELC expired, not even a single 2-way NHL deal). Gets even tougher when dropping to the 4th & 5th rounds.
I don't think I've ever seen a poster here who was overly pessimistic on prospects.
I'm singled out for being negative, but if anything I've been overly *optimistic* historically.
You do detailed analysis with valid explanations as to why you place your levels of expectation that you do. You are a tad on the negative side but definitely not overly negative. What I was talking about are those that seem to set themselves up to be able to say I knew he was going to be a bust.It’s easier to be right if you’re pessimistic especially with the picks that aren’t top 10. Odds are pretty good that most will bust.