2019-20-21 Roster Speculation: Neither on- nor off-season edition

[Fjordy]

Hutton + Pilut for Raanta + Stepan
Hutton + Pilut for pick

I think there you can find some kind of deal with different teams.

 

[Jim Bob]

w

trade Hutton+pick? for raanta/georgiev

Why would the other team want Hutton?

 

[Jim Bob]

Why? Trade him , buyout him, send it to Rochester. If he stays again and shows bad results, then I don’t even know if this organization really doesn’t learn anything?

Why would another team trade for him?

Buying him out hurts the Sabres future cap. No thanks.

Burying him in Rochester is fine if they can deal with the cap implications of that and they have a better option in Buffalo.

JJ and 6K aren't ready for that job, IMO.

 

[Fjordy]

Why would another team trade for him?

Buying him out hurts the Sabres future cap. No thanks.

Burying him in Rochester is fine if they can deal with the cap implications of that and they have a better option in Buffalo.

JJ and 6K aren't ready for that job, IMO.

They can buyout him or send him to the AHL, he seems to have an easy redemption, for example, Arizona needs to unload his salary and I already saw today one of their fans was offering a similar deal.

Yes, I do not care what they do to him, pay the other team to take him away, do not step on the same rake. If Ullmark gets injured, and Hutton and JJ are not ready again, we are finished.

 

[Jim Bob]

They can buyout him or send him to the AHL, he seems to have an easy redemption, for example, Arizona needs to unload his salary and I already saw today one of their fans was offering a similar deal.

Yes, I do not care what they do to him, pay the other team to take him away, do not step on the same rake. If Ullmark gets injured, and Hutton and JJ are not ready again, we are finished.

Hutton for Raanta only saves the Yotes $1.5M against the cap.

I doubt the vast difference in performance is worth that minimal amount of cap savings.

If they move Raanta, they will likely want to move him for a pick or a much cheaper option. And adding Raanta and burying Hutton in Rochester will mean that it costs $6M against the cap for those two plus whatever Ullmark will get.

I doubt the Sabres have the cap space to spend that much in goal.

 

[Gabrielor]

I don't get the love for Zacha, he's basically the forward version of Risto. Only he produced his terribad analytics while in a 4th line role (at least Risto has the excuse of deployment). The guy is just never in the right position. We already poached a player from one of the worst lines in the league on one of the worst teams in the league, I'd rather stay away from the other two.

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I like Tierney but he's a perimeter player, I'd rather overpay to keep Larsson for that 3rd line.

I don't love Zacha, but Sabres fans can't say "lol Ristolainen sucks" and simultaneously expect a big return of a top-6 forward.

Zacha is the target, because both him and Ristolainen aren't great.


Larsson, by some accounts, is likely on his way out, so we're done there. Tierney is the perfect replacement. Also, I have no idea what you're talking about with 'perimeter player', because he certainly hasn't been that in Ottawa...


Also also, we'll play Zacha with Skinner and Cozens/Kahun/Johansson. Big step up from Wood and old Simmonds.

 

[TehDoak]

I don't think any team is taking on a goalie who was complaining about vision issues. The easiest solution is to send him to Rochester. Maybe when a team inevitably gets hit with injuries they would be interested in him with some retention.

Also, we need another goalie.

 

[Fjordy]

Hutton for Raanta only saves the Yotes $1.5M against the cap.

I doubt the vast difference in performance is worth that minimal amount of cap savings.

If they move Raanta, they will likely want to move him for a pick or a much cheaper option. And adding Raanta and burying Hutton in Rochester will mean that it costs $6M against the cap for those two plus whatever Ullmark will get.

I doubt the Sabres have the cap space to spend that much in goal.

No, Hutton + Pilut for Raanta + Stepan

They save 7-8 million in a cap, they can also send Hutton to their farm club and they will have Kuemper and Hill.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I don't love Zacha, but Sabres fans can't say "lol Ristolainen sucks" and simultaneously expect a big return of a top-6 forward.

Zacha is the target, because both him and Ristolainen aren't great.


Larsson, by some accounts, is likely on his way out, so we're done there. Tierney is the perfect replacement. Also, I have no idea what you're talking about with 'perimeter player', because he certainly hasn't been that in Ottawa...


Also also, we'll play Zacha with Skinner and Cozens/Kahun/Johansson. Big step up from Wood and old Simmonds.

I don't think Tierney will be able to replace Larry defensively -- but he'll be cheaper, so maybe he doesn't need to. Larsson/Simmonds is about equal to Teirny/Zacha so it sounds like a reasonable swap to me.

 

[Gabrielor]

I don't think Tierney will be able to replace Larry defensively -- but he'll be cheaper, so maybe he doesn't need to. Larsson/Simmonds is about equal to Teirny/Zacha so it sounds like a reasonable swap to me.

Defense was rough, but he won at even strength. On the third line, with Mojo and Cozens/Thompson, he'll be fine. (Chart courtesy of @Jame)

 

[lauraP]

Why would the other team want Hutton?

Cap reasons.

 

[Fezzy126]

I don't love Zacha, but Sabres fans can't say "lol Ristolainen sucks" and simultaneously expect a big return of a top-6 forward.

Zacha is the target, because both him and Ristolainen aren't great.


Larsson, by some accounts, is likely on his way out, so we're done there. Tierney is the perfect replacement. Also, I have no idea what you're talking about with 'perimeter player', because he certainly hasn't been that in Ottawa...


Also also, we'll play Zacha with Skinner and Cozens/Kahun/Johansson. Big step up from Wood and old Simmonds.

I disagree about Zacha, like I said he has poor analytics in a sheltered, lower TOI role. He is also poor defensively at ES, so putting him in a larger role with someone like Skinner would result in calls for Krueger/Adams to get fired by Thanksgiving because we'd spend entire shifts chasing the opposition around our zone.

As for Risto, I'm not in the group that thinks he sucks, he's playing the tough minutes on a shitty team. In his minutes with Larsson, they were very good in that role. With anyone else he was terrible, should we be expecting different? No other forwards in this group know their head from their ass in the defensive zone. The analytics group on twitter won't admit it, but there were subtle improvements in his game this year. I'd still trade him because 1) both him and the fans both just seem jaded at this point, and 2) I strongly value forwards over defensemen anyway.

Lastly, perhaps I'm being harsh on Tierney but I was never a huge fan (it has been a while since I've watched any hockey). He works hard on the forecheck for sure, but other than that there seems to be a lot of waiting for someone to get him the puck. Maybe I'll watch some of his games to refresh my memories.

 

[sabresEH]

Pro? How did he then play with poor eyesight for months, it doesn’t look like a professional.

I wasn't speaking to his performance on the ice when I referred to him as a consummate pro and I think you know that.

 

[Fjordy]

I wasn't speaking to his performance on the ice when I referred to him as a consummate pro and I think you know that.

What were you talking about them?

I just don’t understand how they can save Hutton again if there has already been such an incident and maybe because of this we did not get into the playoffs.

 

[sabresEH]

What were you talking about them?

I just don’t understand how they can save Hutton again if there has already been such an incident and maybe because of this we did not get into the playoffs.

I'm talking about how he handles himself off the ice day to day. How he treats the younger Ullmark who is clearly taking starts away from him. Some can sulk and make it an ugly situation, he doesn't from what I read and hear. It might not seem like much to us fans but that stuff matters in a locker room.

They will give Hutton a shot in camp next year because of the little things he provides. But as I said I have faith the new regime will make the necessary moves before it's too late. And while he didn't help us get a BS playoff spot, its not fair to pinpoint him when we have a poor roster. There is no depth and no fight in this team.

 

[Gabrielor]

I disagree about Zacha, like I said he has poor analytics in a sheltered, lower TOI role. He is also poor defensively at ES, so putting him in a larger role with someone like Skinner would result in calls for Krueger/Adams to get fired by Thanksgiving because we'd spend entire shifts chasing the opposition around our zone.

As for Risto, I'm not in the group that thinks he sucks, he's playing the tough minutes on a shitty team. In his minutes with Larsson, they were very good in that role. With anyone else he was terrible, should we be expecting different? No other forwards in this group know their head from their ass in the defensive zone. The analytics group on twitter won't admit it, but there were subtle improvements in his game this year. I'd still trade him because 1) both him and the fans both just seem jaded at this point, and 2) I strongly value forwards over defensemen anyway.

Lastly, perhaps I'm being harsh on Tierney but I was never a huge fan (it has been a while since I've watched any hockey). He works hard on the forecheck for sure, but other than that there seems to be a lot of waiting for someone to get him the puck. Maybe I'll watch some of his games to refresh my memories.

You must be thinking of someone else. Zacha played a largely defensive role, with Wood and Simmonds, on a bottom-feeder team. Not exactly "sheltered" for a guy whose top 3 in TOI for 19-20 Devils among forwards...

If you don't like the ideas, cool, but let's stop throwing out blanket statements, disprovable in 90 seconds. (Tierney doesn't go to the net, Zacha was sheltered)

 

[jc17]

Also also, we'll play Zacha with Skinner and Cozens/Kahun/Johansson. Big step up from Wood and old Simmonds.

This is a pretty big yikes. NJ was bad, but basically everyone was better without him. I guess we could save 3 mil and hope he finds his game, but I wouldnt be super optimistic about him playing a key role

 

[Fjordy]

I'm talking about how he handles himself off the ice day to day. How he treats the younger Ullmark who is clearly taking starts away from him. Some can sulk and make it an ugly situation, he doesn't from what I read and hear. It might not seem like much to us fans but that stuff matters in a locker room.

They will give Hutton a shot in camp next year because of the little things he provides. But as I said I have faith the new regime will make the necessary moves before it's too late. And while he didn't help us get a BS playoff spot, its not fair to pinpoint him when we have a poor roster. There is no depth and no fight in this team.

The fact that he is a good person is certainly good, but this is not always enough. We cannot just build a team of good people, we need the best to achieve certain results, for me it looks logical.

 

[Gabrielor]

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This is a pretty big yikes. NJ was bad, but basically everyone was better without him. I guess we could save 3 mil and hope he finds his game, but I wouldnt be super optimistic about him playing a key role

I'm not under any illusions that adding him is adding a top 6 center.

He's a reclamation project that happens to fill a critical hole we need to fill, on a darling contract. He fills that center hole long enough for Cozens, Mittelstadt, or 8-pick to take it, and then slides down the lineup.

 

[joshjull]

I don't know how anyone can defend Risto's play over the last half-decade or more. He doesn't even pass the eye test.

I assume this is directed at me. I'll start by saying I don't know how you can read my post and think that's what I'm doing.

I looked at this past seasons pairings and how they did in various deployments. Several things stood out....

1) I'll start with the most surprising find because I thought they were going to buried. But McCabe/Risto were very good in one of the toughest deployments in the league. They had the 3rd toughest deployment (based on OZS%) of the 41 pairs with 500+mins together . They were also 1 of 5 pairs with 500+mins together and OZS% in the 30s. Having an xGF% of 51% in that type of deployment is pretty good.

2) Montour/Risto (334mins) were terrible together in balanced deployment (OZS% of 53%). They had the worst xGA/60 of our most frequent pairings and an xGF% of 41%. Montour underlying numbers were also bad with his 2nd most frequent partner (xGF of 44% ) with a very favorable deployment (OZS% - 68%).

3) Joker was pretty effective in his minutes. He killed it in a balanced deployment in 325mins with Scandella (OZS%-49%/xGF% 55%). Its the best xGF% of our most frequent pairings. He did well breaking even in a very tough deployment in 331mins with McCabe (OZS%-41%/xGF%-49%) He even managed to pull of the miracle of breaking even in his 109mins with Montour (xGF% of 50%) in a very tough deployment (OZS% - 38%). But he couldn't salvage his 103mins with Dahlin in a balanced deployment (OZS%- 50%/xGF% - 38%).

4) Dahlin needs to be much better. He was set up in the most favorable deployments most of the season. The best he did with his top 3 partners was break even with in his 356mins with Miller (OZS% - 60%/ xGF% 49%). You can see the numbers above for what he did with Montour and Joker. He needs to be much better. I'm 100% confident he will. He's still so young.


Getting back to Risto specifically. He was on one of the most effective pairs and one of the worst we had this year. I'm saying keep the good pairing for now and worry about recreating the best pairing Joker was on and getting Dahlin on track. If they can find a way to get a cheaper or better player in Risto's spot, great. But with the enormity of the task in front of our new GM and more pressing issues to address than Risto. I'm not as worried about him staying IF we move on from other RHD to keep the pairings slotted in their most effective deployments. Montour had far worse numbers than Risto and should be a bigger concern to move on from.

 

[Gabrielor]

I assume this is directed at me. I'll start by saying I don't know how you can read my post and think that's what I'm doing.

I looked at this past seasons pairings and how they did in various deployments. Several things stood out....

1) I'll start with the most surprising find because I thought they were going to buried. But McCabe/Risto were very good in one of the toughest deployments in the league. They had the 3rd toughest deployment (based on OZS%) of the 41 pairs with 500+mins together . They were also 1 of 5 pairs with 500+mins together and OZS% in the 30s. Having an xGF% of 51% in that type of deployment is pretty good.

2) Montour/Risto (334mins) were terrible together in balanced deployment (OZS% of 53%). They had the worst xGA/60 of our most frequent pairings and an xGF% of 41%. Montour underlying numbers were also bad with his 2nd most frequent partner (xGF of 44% ) with a very favorable deployment (OZS% - 68%).

3) Joker was pretty effective in his minutes. He killed it in a balanced deployment in 325mins with Scandella (OZS%-49%/xGF% 55%). Its the best xGF% of our most frequent pairings. He did well breaking even in a very tough deployment in 331mins with McCabe (OZS%-41%/xGF%-49%) He even managed to pull of the miracle of breaking even in his 109mins with Montour (xGF% of 50%) in a very tough deployment (OZS% - 38%). But he couldn't salvage his 103mins with Dahlin in a balanced deployment (OZS%- 50%/xGF% - 38%).

4) Dahlin needs to be much better. He was set up in the most favorable deployments most of the season. The best he did with his top 3 partners was break even with in his 356mins with Miller (OZS% - 60%/ xGF% 49%). You can see the numbers above for what he did with Montour and Joker. He needs to be much better. I'm 100% confident he will. He's still so young.


Getting back to Risto specifically. He was on one of the most effective pairs and one of the worst we had this year. I'm saying keep the good pairing for now and worry about reacreting the ebst pairing Joker was on and getting Dahlin on track. If they can find a way to get a cheaper or better player in Risto's spot, great. But with the enormity of the task in front of our new GM and more pressing issues to address than Risto. I'm not as worried about him staying IF we move on from other RHD to keep the pairings slotted in their most effective deployments. Montour had far worse numbers than Risto and should be a bigger concern to move on from.

Agree with this. Montour's gotta go while there's still value. He doesn't fit on the Krueger team.

 

[jc17]

I'm not under any illusions that adding him is adding a top 6 center.

He's a reclamation project that happens to fill a critical hole we need to fill, on a darling contract. He fills that center hole long enough for Cozens, Mittelstadt, or 8-pick to take it, and then slides down the lineup.

I realize that quality centers are hard to find for a reasonable price so I'm not trying to pull a "why dont you just trade for (insert good center) instead?". But even if it's only for a year it seems like a big risk to have a second consecutive year of Skinner with question mark center.

Zacha's numbers could be bad because he played tough minutes, or it could just be who he is. I don't love the idea of entering another season with that kind of doubt about a player in a key role, even if its short-term.

 

[sabresEH]

The fact that he is a good person is certainly good, but this is not always enough. We cannot just build a team of good people, we need the best to achieve certain results, for me it looks logical.

As I said, to us fans it means a little. To the guys in the locker room it means a lot. And I'm not saying he should be gifted the back up spot because he's a good guy. I'm just telling you those are the reasons why he will be given another shot. Right or wrong, he will get a shot in camp next year.

We can buy him out when the opportunity comes and he'll have a cap hit of under 1 mill for 2 seasons. Or if we send him down to the AHL for a year(maybe he mentors UPL down there) we carry a cap hit of 1.675 for one season. I'd rather give him a shot to see if he rebounds and if he sucks it's not the worst money spent to have a vet goalie in Rochester for a year. This is assuming he can't be dealt in the off season.

 

[Gabrielor]

I realize that quality centers are hard to find for a reasonable price so I'm not trying to pull a "why dont you just trade for (insert good center) instead?". But even if it's only for a year it seems like a big risk to have a second consecutive year of Skinner with question mark center.

Zacha's numbers could be bad because he played tough minutes, or it could just be who he is. I don't love the idea of entering another season with that kind of doubt about a player in a key role, even if its short-term.

Key difference is Zacha, for all his flaws, is a center. Johansson, isn't, at all. Skinner had Johansson at center, and f***ing Vladimir Sobotka on his right wing, for a good chunk of the early season. In contrast, Zacha is a windfall, haha.

Regardless, my entire mission statement in the mock was 'buy time for proper development of centers'. If Zacha flops, but we bought time for Cozens to not be rushed (Mittelstadt'd) into a top 6 role, that's 100% worth it to me. There's a value in acquiring Zacha/Tierney and adding proper development time to our top center prospects that won't be quantifable.

 

[sabresEH]

I assume this is directed at me. I'll start by saying I don't know how you can read my post and think that's what I'm doing.

I looked at this past seasons pairings and how they did in various deployments. Several things stood out....

1) I'll start with the most surprising find because I thought they were going to buried. But McCabe/Risto were very good in one of the toughest deployments in the league. They had the 3rd toughest deployment (based on OZS%) of the 41 pairs with 500+mins together . They were also 1 of 5 pairs with 500+mins together and OZS% in the 30s. Having an xGF% of 51% in that type of deployment is pretty good.

2) Montour/Risto (334mins) were terrible together in balanced deployment (OZS% of 53%). They had the worst xGA/60 of our most frequent pairings and an xGF% of 41%. Montour underlying numbers were also bad with his 2nd most frequent partner (xGF of 44% ) with a very favorable deployment (OZS% - 68%).

3) Joker was pretty effective in his minutes. He killed it in a balanced deployment in 325mins with Scandella (OZS%-49%/xGF% 55%). Its the best xGF% of our most frequent pairings. He did well breaking even in a very tough deployment in 331mins with McCabe (OZS%-41%/xGF%-49%) He even managed to pull of the miracle of breaking even in his 109mins with Montour (xGF% of 50%) in a very tough deployment (OZS% - 38%). But he couldn't salvage his 103mins with Dahlin in a balanced deployment (OZS%- 50%/xGF% - 38%).

4) Dahlin needs to be much better. He was set up in the most favorable deployments most of the season. The best he did with his top 3 partners was break even with in his 356mins with Miller (OZS% - 60%/ xGF% 49%). You can see the numbers above for what he did with Montour and Joker. He needs to be much better. I'm 100% confident he will. He's still so young.


Getting back to Risto specifically. He was on one of the most effective pairs and one of the worst we had this year. I'm saying keep the good pairing for now and worry about reacreting the ebst pairing Joker was on and getting Dahlin on track. If they can find a way to get a cheaper or better player in Risto's spot, great. But with the enormity of the task in front of our new GM and more pressing issues to address than Risto. I'm not as worried about him staying IF we move on from other RHD to keep the pairings slotted in their most effective deployments. Montour had far worse numbers than Risto and should be a bigger concern to move on from.

Great post. I've said this before, but we're going to want McCabe and Risto if this team can ever get to playoffs. Take those 2 out of our lineup and teams will beat up our D all series long. Keep those 2 and some players may be thinking twice before barreling down on the forecheck.