2019-20-21 Roster Speculation: Neither on- nor off-season edition

[jc17]

Key difference is Zacha, for all his flaws, is a center. Johansson, isn't, at all. Skinner had Johansson at center, and f***ing Vladimir Sobotka on his right wing, for a good chunk of the early season. In contrast, Zacha is a windfall, haha.

Regardless, my entire mission statement in the mock was 'buy time for proper development of centers'. If Zacha flops, but we bought time for Cozens to not be rushed (Mittelstadt'd) into a top 6 role, that's 100% worth it to me. There's a value in acquiring Zacha/Tierney and adding proper development time to our top center prospects that won't be quantifable.

I dont want to be the doomsday prepper, but isn't another potential season down the tubes an un-quantifiable negative? Whether its even more players crossing us off their free agency list, or including us in NTC's, or good players asking to be moved, I think there is some pressure to perform now. That doesn't mean I want to rush Cozens but I think I'd consider making some moves I dont love the thought of, like trading 8OA, rather than punting again.

It also assumes that Cozens is ready to be a good NHL center in two years which is a huge assumption that I don't think we can afford to make in case that he's not.

 

[tsujimoto74]

I assume this is directed at me. I'll start by saying I don't know how you can read my post and think that's what I'm doing.

I looked at this past seasons pairings and how they did in various deployments. Several things stood out....

1) I'll start with the most surprising find because I thought they were going to buried. But McCabe/Risto were very good in one of the toughest deployments in the league. They had the 3rd toughest deployment (based on OZS%) of the 41 pairs with 500+mins together . They were also 1 of 5 pairs with 500+mins together and OZS% in the 30s. Having an xGF% of 51% in that type of deployment is pretty good.

2) Montour/Risto (334mins) were terrible together in balanced deployment (OZS% of 53%). They had the worst xGA/60 of our most frequent pairings and an xGF% of 41%. Montour underlying numbers were also bad with his 2nd most frequent partner (xGF of 44% ) with a very favorable deployment (OZS% - 68%).

3) Joker was pretty effective in his minutes. He killed it in a balanced deployment in 325mins with Scandella (OZS%-49%/xGF% 55%). Its the best xGF% of our most frequent pairings. He did well breaking even in a very tough deployment in 331mins with McCabe (OZS%-41%/xGF%-49%) He even managed to pull of the miracle of breaking even in his 109mins with Montour (xGF% of 50%) in a very tough deployment (OZS% - 38%). But he couldn't salvage his 103mins with Dahlin in a balanced deployment (OZS%- 50%/xGF% - 38%).

4) Dahlin needs to be much better. He was set up in the most favorable deployments most of the season. The best he did with his top 3 partners was break even with in his 356mins with Miller (OZS% - 60%/ xGF% 49%). You can see the numbers above for what he did with Montour and Joker. He needs to be much better. I'm 100% confident he will. He's still so young.


Getting back to Risto specifically. He was on one of the most effective pairs and one of the worst we had this year. I'm saying keep the good pairing for now and worry about reacreting the ebst pairing Joker was on and getting Dahlin on track. If they can find a way to get a cheaper or better player in Risto's spot, great. But with the enormity of the task in front of our new GM and more pressing issues to address than Risto. I'm not as worried about him staying IF we move on from other RHD to keep the pairings slotted in their most effective deployments. Montour had far worse numbers than Risto and should be a bigger concern to move on from.

Bang on. Montour is/should be the odd man out.

 

[Aladyyn]

Going to be funny when Larsson leaves and Ristolainen's on-ice numbers suddenly drop to mid 40s again.

 

[Gabrielor]

I dont want to be the doomsday prepper, but isn't another potential season down the tubes an un-quantifiable negative? Whether its even more players crossing us off their free agency list, or including us in NTC's, or good players asking to be moved, I think there is some pressure to perform now. That doesn't mean I want to rush Cozens but I think I'd consider making some moves I dont love the thought of, like trading 8OA, rather than punting again.

Firstly, I'm not punting at all. I added proven veteran talent everywhere, but goaltending. On the topic of moving 8, I just think you want to dream more. Realistically, you aren't going to get the impact player you're seeking moving 8 for any lengthy period of time. Cirelli is a fun dream, but just that, a dream. Adding a top 6 winger with 8 (Let's say Brock Boeser) still doesn't solve the crater at center, and means you'll have to find those elsewhere.

It also assumes that Cozens is ready to be a good NHL center in two years which is a huge assumption that I don't think we can afford to make in case that he's not.

Yes, this relies on us developing our prospects, but so does any situation you can give me if Buffalo wants to win a cup. Trading 8 for a unicorn wouldn't mean our job is done....There's A LOT of holes to fill with our current prospects. Fortunately, a hand full are coming along nicely.

 

[Fjordy]

As I said, to us fans it means a little. To the guys in the locker room it means a lot. And I'm not saying he should be gifted the back up spot because he's a good guy. I'm just telling you those are the reasons why he will be given another shot. Right or wrong, he will get a shot in camp next year.

We can buy him out when the opportunity comes and he'll have a cap hit of under 1 mill for 2 seasons. Or if we send him down to the AHL for a year(maybe he mentors UPL down there) we carry a cap hit of 1.675 for one season. I'd rather give him a shot to see if he rebounds and if he sucks it's not the worst money spent to have a vet goalie in Rochester for a year. This is assuming he can't be dealt in the off season.

I mean, they should find goalie, that is, now they should have plans to search for goalie, and not hope that Hutton will return his game, I hope Adams will act prudently and bring the new goaltender in November or in trade.

 

[joshjull]

Going to be funny when Larsson leaves and Ristolainen's on-ice numbers suddenly drop to mid 40s again.

There is no statistical basis to the idea that McCabe/Risto relied on Larsson or LOG to get the numbers they had.

McCabe/Risto played only 68mins of their 508mins as a pair with LOG and only 100mins with Larsson specifically. In each case their xGF% away was 49%. Which means in the overwhelming majority of their time together, McCabe/Risto broke even without the help of LOG or Larsson.

 

[Sabreality]

I still say trade Hutton for Allen, hes had a great year, 1yr to push Ullmark. The devil the Blues know...good soldier behind Binner, he had success there, they need to shed Cap.

Risk being we saw how the last STL goalie worked out for us.

 

[jc17]

There is no statistical basis to the idea that McCabe/Risto relied on Larsson or LOG to get the numbers they had.

McCabe/Risto played only 68mins of their 508mins as a pair with LOG and only 100mins with Larsson specifically. In each case their xGF% away was 49%. Which means in the overwhelming majority of their time together, McCabe/Risto broke even without the help of LOG or Larsson.

Does McCabe need risto for that to work though? Looking at the 19, 55, 22 trio, when McCabe was away from risto and larry he did ok, while risto struggled away from the other two despite more o-zone starts than mccabe.

So maybe risto and McCabe can be effective together, but if you can get something of value I'm not sure if he's worth holding onto because he was part of a good pairing. McCabe can be tough to watch sometimes, but statistically it looks like he was fairly steady regardless of usage or teammate making me think/hope other players could fill that role if we moved risto

 

[Dex]

I do not see Buffalo bringing in another veteran goaler at the NHL level . It's Linus' job and I think because of veteran bias, Hutton starts as backup.

In Rochester, I think it's JJ and someone as the backup. The Sabres might want UPL to be getting starter minutes to start the year in Cincinnati. I think JJ has shown excellent progress over the past couple if years in North America and did not look horrible in Buffalo

If I were Buffalo, I would

• Ride Linus in the NHL and see how Hutton does in the backup role.
• At the same time, I'd ride JJ as the starter in Rochester with someone like Howser or equivalent as the backup. and use UPL in te same capacity in Cincinnati
• At the first sign of issues with Hutton:
  • I'd move JJ to Buffalo
  • Hutton to Rochester
  • UPL to Rochester
  • Howser or equivalent to Cinci

 

[Buffaloed]

Not sure if discussed but Frolik is headed to the KHL, Not sure how we will fill that void, I mean I suppose we could try Hutton at wing.

That's a shame. He was one of our most authentic players. He really resonated.

 

[Fezzy126]

You must be thinking of someone else. Zacha played a largely defensive role, with Wood and Simmonds, on a bottom-feeder team. Not exactly "sheltered" for a guy whose top 3 in TOI for 19-20 Devils among forwards...

If you don't like the ideas, cool, but let's stop throwing out blanket statements, disprovable in 90 seconds. (Tierney doesn't go to the net, Zacha was sheltered)

Blanket statements that are disprovable, huh?

There is no data on the planet that says Zacha had a defensive role other than zone starts, which only tells a small portion of the story. (also he was 7th in TOI per game, 8th before the Hall trade)

Zajac/Coleman were defensively deployed, Hischier/Palmieri were offensively deployed, Hughes and some of the other kids were sheltered, and the Zacha line got the leftovers. The data at sites like HockeyViz, PuckIQ, and the individual game breakdowns at NST paint the whole picture.

I said my piece about Tierney and said I would go back and watch again. I labeled him a perimeter player, which is a combination of watching him and comments from Sens fans (who generally don't really care for him at all). I've seen him go to the net, but he doesn't consistently drive the center lane in a way that impacts the opposing defense, there's a subtle difference. The metrics bear this out as well, as he is consistently in the bottom half of the team in iHDCF and iSCF metrics.

I don't get the snarky response, it's a message board are we not supposed to debate/discuss posts here?

 

[Fezzy126]

Getting back to Risto specifically. He was on one of the most effective pairs and one of the worst we had this year. I'm saying keep the good pairing for now and worry about reacreting the ebst pairing Joker was on and getting Dahlin on track. If they can find a way to get a cheaper or better player in Risto's spot, great. But with the enormity of the task in front of our new GM and more pressing issues to address than Risto. I'm not as worried about him staying IF we move on from other RHD to keep the pairings slotted in their most effective deployments. Montour had far worse numbers than Risto and should be a bigger concern to move on from.

Totally agree with Montour, and I think he still has some value around the league as well.

One idea that few consider is deploying Risto with Dahlin in an offensive role. That leaves the tough defensive assignments to McCabe/Joker, and then find some combination of Miller/Borgen/Bryson/UFA for the 3rd pair.

I think people tend to stay away from the Rasmus^2 combination because of how unnatural they looked together 2 years ago, but they posted some decent results this year in a small sample size (counterpoint: I have no idea how many of those minutes came in the 7 dman juggling experiments).

 

[Fjordy]

OMG, Hutton sucks, need new backup

 

[Jim Bob]

Cap reasons.

He isn't that cheap at $2.75M coming off a bad season.

 

[Jim Bob]

No, Hutton + Pilut for Raanta + Stepan

They save 7-8 million in a cap, they can also send Hutton to their farm club and they will have Kuemper and Hill.

The problem then becomes the Sabres cap and trying to get all their RFAs re-signed with that much cap space going in goal and the added expense at center.

 

[Gabrielor]

Blanket statements that are disprovable, huh?

There is no data on the planet that says Zacha had a defensive role other than zone starts, which only tells a small portion of the story. (also he was 7th in TOI per game, 8th before the Hall trade)

Zajac/Coleman were defensively deployed, Hischier/Palmieri were offensively deployed, Hughes and some of the other kids were sheltered, and the Zacha line got the leftovers. The data at sites like HockeyViz, PuckIQ, and the individual game breakdowns at NST paint the whole picture.

I said my piece about Tierney and said I would go back and watch again. I labeled him a perimeter player, which is a combination of watching him and comments from Sens fans (who generally don't really care for him at all). I've seen him go to the net, but he doesn't consistently drive the center lane in a way that impacts the opposing defense, there's a subtle difference. The metrics bear this out as well, as he is consistently in the bottom half of the team in iHDCF and iSCF metrics.

I don't get the snarky response, it's a message board are we not supposed to debate/discuss posts here?

Eh, I thought you mis-respresented Tierney, and then when I saw Zacha's TOI in conjuction with your 'low TOI' claim, I kind of popped. I still wouldn't consider 3rd-TOI + 7th/8th TOI per game low, more middle of the pack. Also, you're right, that context would say his deployment was more even than defensive.

As for our overall discussion, the reason I like these deals was highlighted in several other posts I've made, so I won't belabor them (buy time for prospects). Your alternative to my ideas was:

overpaying to re-sign Larsson, which I would love to do, but it's likely not going to happen. I think Larsson is heading to UFA.

implying Ristolainen has more value in a trade (or maybe you want to keep him)? Possibly, if you find the right GM, but I don't see it. History + stats (even with sutble improvements) still don't paint a great picture for Ristolainen and his value to the league. You'll need an old-school thinking GM if you want a top-6 forward.

 

[jc17]

What's the deal with Ian Cole?

I see he averaged 6th most ice time for Colorado D. Good numbers with all teammates and a lot of dzone starts. Contract isn't great but not bad. I wonder what the cost for him would be with only a year left on his contract

 

[Fjordy]

The problem then becomes the Sabres cap and trying to get all their RFAs re-signed with that much cap space going in goal and the added expense at center.

If desired, we can easily fit into the cap. Also, do not forget that we will still need to trade 1-2 RD this off-season.

 

[lauraP]

He isn't that cheap at $2.75M coming off a bad season.

I mean, the rangers aren’t gonna keep 3 goalies Georgie is the odd man out, raanta barely played cause of injuries and has a higher cap hit then Hutton, 2 deals could be made for either goalies with a small sweetener, if we traded for a decent backup goalie in December we’d Easily be in the play in right now Hutton and his vision problems have been a huge reason for our losing season.

 

[dkollidas]

I thought Miller looked better at the end of the season. He said that he does better when he has a stable pairing, and looking at how different each of our LHD are, this probably makes sense. I’d like to see his WOWYs.

Who was he paired with at the end of the season? Dahlin? I’ll admit I checked out after about 30games this year.

 

[CrazyPsycho]

Do you think Adams knows who Sean Malone is?

 

[Fjordy]

Do we need Sean Malone?

 

[CrazyPsycho]

Do we need Sean Malone?

Im lower on him than most but he still had a solid season and plays center. Injuries have cost him alot of development

 

[TehDoak]

Hutton is probably tradable with 50% retention, especially once a team needs a backup goalie. They can then send him to the minors and only have 400k-ish dead space IIRC. If we send him to Rochester we'll have 1.75M in dead space.

 

[Fjordy]

Im lower on him than most but he still had a solid season and plays center. Injuries have cost him alot of development

Well, I just would not blame Adams for not signing Malone, yet he is a simple player for the AHL.