2019-20-21 Roster Speculation: Neither on- nor off-season edition

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Fjordy

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Jun 20, 2018
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Boeser is a luxury for which I would not pay our #8 or Jokiharju or Cozens, it does not make sense until we find 1-2 centers.
 
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jc17

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Not that they'd plan for it but in wonder how skinner- eichel - x, olofsson-reinhart-boeser would be as a top 6?
 

truthbluth

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Feb 2, 2011
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He did return to form.
Eight Sabres who could win, or lose, in a Kevyn Adams-Ralph Krueger roster
Colin Miller - struggled learning the system but finished strong. Would also be attractive trade bait.
Over the final 19 games, Miller ranked first among all Sabres defensemen in expected goals-for percentage, expected goals for per 60 minutes and third in expected goals against per 60 minutes.
I thought Miller looked better at the end of the season. He said that he does better when he has a stable pairing, and looking at how different each of our LHD are, this probably makes sense. I’d like to see his WOWYs.
 

Aladyyn

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Only 3 pairings played >100 minutes with a >50% expected goal share for the Sabres this season: Scandella-Jokiharju, Miller-Jokiharju, Dahlin-Miller
 

Dirty Dog

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I thought Miller looked better at the end of the season. He said that he does better when he has a stable pairing, and looking at how different each of our LHD are, this probably makes sense. I’d like to see his WOWYs.

Few players are going to perform well without stability.

Botts hoarding too many defensemen was one of the most inexplicable things I have ever seen a GM do. It was to the complete detriment of the team and the individual players. Not too mention when scandella and bogo were finally booted, it was in an amazingly hilarious fashion

what an absolute clown.
 
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Club

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Boeser is a luxury for which I would not pay our #8 or Jokiharju or Cozens, it does not make sense until we find 1-2 centers.
Exactly. Even a passive fan can identify thats a hole. Hopefully Adams isnt lateral with that void in our roster.

I know it might not happen, but what about Roope Hintz?
 

Fjordy

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Jun 20, 2018
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Exactly. Even a passive fan can identify thats a hole. Hopefully Adams isnt lateral with that void in our roster.

I know it might not happen, but what about Roope Hintz?
I already proposed Hintz option last summer, but I'm not sure that Dallas will want to trade him, although they seem to need RD.
 

Der Jaeger

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Feb 14, 2009
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Few players are going to perform well without stability.

Botts hoarding too many defensemen was one of the most inexplicable things I have ever seen a GM do. It was to the complete detriment of the team and the individual players. Not too mention when scandella and bogo were finally booted, it was in an amazingly hilarious fashion

what an absolute clown.

It was a pendulum swing. Murray had virtually no NHL defenders. Rocking Josh Gorges and Cody Franson wasn’t good.
 

Fezzy126

Rebuilding...
May 10, 2017
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He did return to form.
Eight Sabres who could win, or lose, in a Kevyn Adams-Ralph Krueger roster
Colin Miller - struggled learning the system but finished strong. Would also be attractive trade bait.
Over the final 19 games, Miller ranked first among all Sabres defensemen in expected goals-for percentage, expected goals for per 60 minutes and third in expected goals against per 60 minutes.

I think Miller is fine on the bottom pairing, but don't think we should be making a big deal of his last stretch of games. He was playing with Dahlin and had the easiest deployment on the team:

PlayerPlayer 2GPTOITOI/GPGF%xGF%Off. Zone Start %
Jake McCabeHenri Jokiharju19256.5813.5036.8448.9538.1
Rasmus RistolainenBrandon Montour18221.0012.286039.9850.94
Colin MillerRasmus Dahlin15175.7311.7254.5552.7862.96
[TBODY] [/TBODY]


upload_2020-7-12_11-21-36.png


He should have been putting up the best metrics on the team all year, not for just the final stretch.
 

joshjull

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I think Miller is fine on the bottom pairing, but don't think we should be making a big deal of his last stretch of games. He was playing with Dahlin and had the easiest deployment on the team:

PlayerPlayer 2GPTOITOI/GPGF%xGF%Off. Zone Start %
Jake McCabeHenri Jokiharju19256.5813.5036.8448.9538.1
Rasmus RistolainenBrandon Montour18221.0012.286039.9850.94
Colin MillerRasmus Dahlin15175.7311.7254.5552.7862.96
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
View attachment 353470

He should have been putting up the best metrics on the team all year, not for just the final stretch.

Yes he should have.

Miller played 14:52min a night 5v5 with a OZS% of 51%. His GF% of 42%/xGF% of 49% were quite bad.

But he should get back on track if he gets a steady partner next season and a deployment that sees his OZS% back up to 60% or so (where he's been during his previous seasons.) That and he stays on the right side.
 

joshjull

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Aug 2, 2005
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Only 3 pairings played >100 minutes with a >50% expected goal share for the Sabres this season: Scandella-Jokiharju, Miller-Jokiharju, Dahlin-Miller

Not sure what the point is you're trying to make

1) Dahlin/Miller don't meet your criteria with an xGF% of 48.3%. Their numbers generally were not very impressive (GF% of 52%/xGF% 48.3%) in their offensively favorable/sheltered deployment (OZS% of 60%).

2) Only one of those pairs had clearly good numbers (Scandella/Joker) in both xGF% (54.9%) and GF% (61%) in a balanced deployment (OZS% of 49%) in 3rd pairing minutes.


3) The pairing with by far the most minutes together (508mins) (McCabe/Risto) also had a better than 50% xGF%, barely mind you (50.49%). Their GF% was 45.2%. They also did that in the toughest deployment (OZS% of 37.3%) of any of the 9 pairings with 100mins or more together. Only one other pair of the 9 with a similar deployment was McCabe/Joker (OZS% of 41.5%). They played 331mins together and had an xGF% 48.6% and a GF% of 41%.
 
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TehDoak

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So, in considering what is the most "fastest" way to do a rebuild, I think a lot depends on what you decide to do with Skinner.

Love him or hate him, he's here and will continue to be here. So, we're going to be a better team if we can return him to 30-40 goal form.

There's obviously two options:

1. Re-unite him with Eichel
2. Build a scoring line around him.

While I do think 1 is a valid option, when you view Skinner's success, he does well in high ozone starts, where as Eichel thrives in all situations. SKinner's 3 best seasons have come from 67%, 67%, and 63% o-zone starts, which I don't think you can do with Eichel anymore.

So, going with option 2.

Your lines are going to look something like:

Eichel Line
Sheltered Line (High Ozone/favorable matchups)
Defensive heavy lifting line (High Dzone/shut down line)
Energy/Change of pace line

For this, I'm going to assume Oloffson-Eichel-Reinhart is staying together.

The question is, what team mates can we put with SKinner to get him going?

I think we saw with Sobotka earlier this season, that Skinner does well when other people are doing the dirty work. Whether it's with Eichel and him carrying the puck from the red line and drawing 3 defenders to him or it's Sobokta digging out pucks for him.

While I'd love to get another premier prime age center to play with Skinner, that probably isn't in the cards

I think we're looking at two players:

1. Center. A speedy playmaking center who sees the ice well, draws attention to himself. Since they are getting high ozone starts by default, it doesn't have to be a some elite two way guy. Some names I've considered: Strome from Chicago, Wennberg from Columbus (IMHO, could be very cheap given CBJ's cap situation) and his drop in numbers appears to lineup with his usage change under Torts. If it wasn't for how bad his contract is (4 more years at 6M) Turris could be an option as well. Tyler Johnson is someone else who I think could work.

2. RW. I think here you are looking at puck retrievals and a bit of a physical guy. I actually like Virtanen out of Vancouver as I think he's pretty much a good fit. Not sure if Vancouver is looking to move him. Okposo used to be this guy, but i think his skating has just passed him by. Lazar maybe could fill in here, or maybe even try Okposo since this is going to be a sheltered line anyways.
 

Aladyyn

they praying for the death of a rockstar
Apr 6, 2015
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Not sure what the point is you're trying to make

1) Dahlin/Miller don't meet your criteria with an xGF% of 48.3%. Their numbers generally were not very impressive (GF% of 52%/xGF% 48.3%) in their offensively favorable/sheltered deployment (OZS% of 60%).

2) Only one of those pairs had clearly good numbers (Scandella/Joker) in both xGF% (54.9%) and GF% (61%) in a balanced deployment (OZS% of 49%) in 3rd pairing minutes.


3) The pairing with by far the most minutes together (508mins) (McCabe/Risto) also had a better than 50% xGF%, barely mind you (50.49%). Their GF% was 45.2%. They also did that in the toughest deployment (OZS% of 37.3%) of any of the 9 pairings with 100mins or more together. Only one other pair of the 9 with a similar deployment was McCabe/Joker (OZS% of 41.5%). They played 331mins together and had an xGF% 48.6% and a GF% of 41%.
What site are you using?
37cb0fff70.png


Not sure why we're looking at zone starts like it's 2015.
 

JThorne

Stop accepting failure
Jul 21, 2006
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I'm guessing that they would be more interesting in recouping the 1st that they lost in the Miller trade than Risto and his contract.

They already have Myers locked it at $6M per to play on the right side. I don't believe that they want Risto at his cost.

If there's one thing people shouldn't complain about Ristolainen, it is his salary. He's not overpaid.

Also what are the odds Krueger even knows Reinhart came up as a center? Has he even been asked this whole time, I honestly cant remember. He threw almost everyone possible at center this season without trying Sam

A professional coach who visits bars in the city he might work to get the opinion of fans as his research, and you think he might not know Reinhart came up as a center? You must be kidding. MUST BE. Otherwise you're the clueless one.
 
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joshjull

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Aug 2, 2005
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Those hard zone starts also mean spending more time with out most effective possession line (coincidentally the only forwards Risto had a positive xG share with were Larsson, Girgensons, Okposo).

Now you're changing the subject from pairings. You listed 3 pairs with 100+mins play and >50% xGF% in your initial post*. Now you're talking about individual numbers. You're not making a very coherent point.

Getting back to the pairings. *None of that means much without the context of their deployment/usage.

Both McCabe/Risto and Dahlin/Miller have underlying numbers that reflect them breaking even in their respective deployments (Depending on the source xGF% ranging from 48-51% for either). What separates them is McCabe/Risto did it playing much tougher minutes. Dahlin/Miller breaking even in a favorable deployment is not some sort of an accomplishment.

I was pretty surprised at how good McCabe/Risto's numbers were in that deployment.
 
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joshjull

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
78,462
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Hamburg,NY
When I was looking at the various d-pairs. it was crazy how much Montour outperformed his underlying numbers with his top 3 partners (based on in minutes together).

Montour/Risto (334mins)
xGF% -41%
GF% -64%

Dahlin/Montour (265mins)
xGF% - 44%
GF% - 62%

Montour/Joker (109mins)
xGF% - 50%
GF% - 75%
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
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You act like because he can't defend he's worthless. He isn't worthless. He just isn't a good defender. Put your agenda away.

I am one of the least agenda driven people around here when it comes to Risto.

My only agenda is to point out the obvious that Risto is either:

A) As net negative a player as the analytics community says he is and as such he's overpaid and unlikely to return a lot in trade.

or

B) He is a much better player than the analytics community says he is, he's compensated appropriately, and the Sabres shouldn't move him because they don't have enough quality RHD to eat all the minutes that will be left if they trade Risto away.

I just don't have time for people that believe A and also believe that Risto can have a really good trade return that makes the Sabres a lot better.

I also don't have time for people that don't take other teams' cap issues seriously when talking about a Risto trade. The Risto for Boeser idea as exhibit A.
 
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