2019-20-21 Roster Speculation: Neither on- nor off-season edition

[SundherDome]

My offer for Boeser would be akin to Risto & Thompson for Boeser & Sutter. Clears 4.5mil or so off Vancouver's cap and gives us another top 6 forward.

At that point, pay a premium for NJ to take Sutter.

 

[TehDoak]

Man, columbus really looks like a team that has to shed some contracts this summer:

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/bluejackets

Unless I'm missing something, PLD needs a new deal, and they are within ~4M of the cap already.

They also have some bodies on ELC that can move up and they are short on picks due to their spending spree.

 

[Jim Bob]

Man, columbus really looks like a team that has to shed some contracts this summer:

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/bluejackets

Unless I'm missing something, PLD needs a new deal, and they are within ~4M of the cap already.

They also have some bodies on ELC that can move up and they are short on picks due to their spending spree.

That CF table has 13 F 8 D 2 G and Dubinsky at $5.85M.

They are tight just because they have almost a full boat of contracts already. It won't be hard to re-sign PLD and go, especially if they don't mind using LTIR on Dubinsky.

 

[truthbluth]

That CF table has 13 F 8 D 2 G and Dubinsky at $5.85M.

They are tight just because they have almost a full boat of contracts already. It won't be hard to re-sign PLD and go, especially if they don't mind using LTIR on Dubinsky.

You missed Josh Anderson I’m guessing. He’s an RFA.

 

[joshjull]

I thought Miller looked better at the end of the season. He said that he does better when he has a stable pairing, and looking at how different each of our LHD are, this probably makes sense. I’d like to see his WOWYs.

We run into a problem with Miller in that he needs to play an offensively favorable deployment with not too many minutes (roughly 15mins at 5v5 or so) to be effective. The offensive deployment puts him with Dahlin. But Miller doesn't have the defensive chops to cover for Dahlin;s struggles. Its why their underling numbers weren't that great.

We discussed Risto before (apologies again for snarky framing of my initial response) and I mentioned we had bigger picture to worry about. One of those issues is who to partner with Dahlin. Dahlin/Montour had a nice run last year (xGF% 54%/GF% 57%) in a smallish sample size (120mins). This year their underlying numbers weren't as good in a different system (265mins xGF% 44%/GF% 62%).

Getting someone to effectively play with Dahlin should be a priority this offseason.

 

[Fezzy126]

We run into a problem with Miller in that he needs to play an offensively favorable deployment with not too many minutes (roughly 15mins at 5v5 or so) to be effective. The offensive deployment puts him with Dahlin. But Miller doesn't have the defensive chops to cover for Dahlin;s struggles. Its why their underling numbers weren't that great.

We discussed Risto before (apologies again for snarky framing of my initial response) and I mentioned we had bigger picture to worry about. One of those issues is who to partner with Dahlin. Dahlin/Montour had a nice run last year (xGF% 54%/GF% 57%) in a smallish sample size (120mins). This year their underlying numbers weren't as good in a different system (265mins xGF% 44%/GF% 62%).

Getting someone to effectively play with Dahlin should be a priority this offseason.

I don't see the deployment decisions changing any time soon with Krueger at the helm.

So far we know he likes:

• Risto + anyone in the primary shutdown role
• McCabe + Jokiharju in a secondary shutdown role, defensively tilted zone starts
• Dahlin + anyone in a sheltered role, offensively tilted zone starts

If Dahlin stays in that role I think almost anyone would work, but that pair better dominate while they're on the ice. Then we need to find a steady LHD to pair with Risto (Edmundson?) because I assume they move Montour. I like Bryson, but I don't think he's going to fit in in immediately with a tougher deployment.

 

[Fjordy]

I am also worried that Dahlin could show the best game and feel more comfortable if he had the right partner. But where to get it, when Adams will need to think about how to find 2C, maybe another forward on RW, find LD and backup goalie.

At the same time, I understand that we most likely will not look for RD in this offseason, although this could help the team and the development of Dahlin, I just wanted to make this list for fun.

Internal reservs: Jokiharju or Borgen - maybe one of them could be suitable for this, but it is somewhat adventurous to make such a young pair of defenders and take on difficult minutes, and Dahlin will probably already play 20+ minutes.

UFA:
Pietrangelo - a lot of money and term, he is also unlikely to be eager to leave St. Louis for Buffalo.

Tanev - It seems like a good option to play with Dahlin, but his injuries are embarrassing, it’s not clear which contract he will ask for and maybe he will stay in Vancouver.

Brodie - he is left-handed, but seems more convenient for him to play on the right, I know little about his game and how much he will suit us.

Gudas - I’m not sure if he is good for top 4, but he will give the team rigidity.

DeMelo - also know little about this guy

Question marks - Hamonic, Braun, Shattenkirk, Vatanen

Trade:
Petry - again, is he good at defense or are Montreal fans overestimating him?

Demers - maybe it will be cheap

Savard - seems like a good option, but depends on the price

Larsson - his game seems to have improved lately, although before that there were problems

Severson - is he good and suitable for playing with Dahlin or is he more like Risto?

Manson - seems like a good player, but maybe the price will bite

Pesce - for some reason it seems to me that he would be an ideal partner for Dahlin, but probably it would cost too much

Murphy - not very good know this guy

Pulock - see Pesce

Weegar - Florida is unlikely to give up one of its best defenders

Mayfield - maybe there is some chance to get this guy if Pulock and Dobson is in the top 4

 

[CrazyPsycho]

If there's one thing people shouldn't complain about Ristolainen, it is his salary. He's not overpaid.



A professional coach who visits bars in the city he might work to get the opinion of fans as his research, and you think he might not know Reinhart came up as a center? You must be kidding. MUST BE. Otherwise you're the clueless one.

Not really, this is a guy who neutered Dahlin for whatever reason when we couldnt score more than 1 goal a game unless Eichel went off

 

[joshjull]

I don't see the deployment decisions changing any time soon with Krueger at the helm.

So far we know he likes:

• Risto + anyone in the primary shutdown role
• McCabe + Jokiharju in a secondary shutdown role, defensively tilted zone starts
• Dahlin + anyone in a sheltered role, offensively tilted zone starts

If Dahlin stays in that role I think almost anyone would work, but that pair better dominate while they're on the ice. Then we need to find a steady LHD to pair with Risto (Edmundson?) because I assume they move Montour. I like Bryson, but I don't think he's going to fit in in immediately with a tougher deployment.

I’m not sure we can say that about the bolded for a few reasons.

1) Risto had two very different deployments with McCabe (very defensive OZS% - 37%) and Montour (balanced OZS% -53%)

2) Joker had a very defensively skewed deployment with McCabe (41%) but balanced ones with Scandella (49%) in roughly the same amount of minutes and Miller (50%). His numbers with Scandella were much better and also better with Miller.

3) McCabe seems to be the one, instead of Risto, who is always in a defensively skewed usage.


I've been looking at the d-pairs on NST for the last couple days. The numbers suggest a template to start from of ........

McCabe/Risto --> defensively skewed usage
Dahlin/XXX ---> offensively skewed usage
YYY/Joker ----> balanced deployment

They need to figure out XXX and YYY. Maybe Miller and/or Montour fill one of those spots. Maybe they move on from one or both.

 

[JThorne]

Not really, this is a guy who neutered Dahlin for whatever reason when we couldnt score more than 1 goal a game unless Eichel went off

So EVERYTHING was Risto's fault. Got it.

 

[Jim Bob]

You missed Josh Anderson I’m guessing. He’s an RFA.

He doesn't count towards those numbers because he is an RFA.

But there are a ton of rumors that he will get traded, so that probably won't be a huge cap issue for C'Bus.

They have a few RFAs on top of PLD & Anderson. But, the more interesting off season for the Jackets will be 2021 when they have a handful of UFAs, including Foligno.

 

[sufferer]

I don't know how anyone can defend Risto's play over the last half-decade or more. He doesn't even pass the eye test.

 

[Gabrielor]

Final mock for a while. I've refined this one for weeks, to the point where I don't think I can improve it.
This is a realistic path back to success. Rather than firesale a bunch of assets for a likely short-term answer, here's the plan:

Step 1:
Trade two dmen who didn't perform well in Krueger's system to completely stabilize the center spine. If this team doesn't make the playoffs, it'll be on offensive talent, not completely broken team composition. (I know Krueger loves Risto, but math doesn't)

Zacha may not get people excited, but he's an elite penalty killer on a beautiful contract, and the kind of center Skinner has played well with. (NJD was also rumored to want Risto, and rumored to be dangling Zacha).

Tierney is the ideal Larsson replacement, and saves us the trouble of paying Montour. (Btw, Ottawa fans love this deal.)


Step 2:

Use ufa to fill out the defense, short term. Solutions are coming, so just try to find some good placeholders. Gudas would be perfect next to Dahlin. Sekera can be a good vet 3rd-pair guy on the cheap.


Step 3:

BE PATIENT and wait for pick-8, Cozens, and Mittelstadt to lead the charge. Every kind of dman prospect you can want, we have. (The superstar - Dahlin, the Hjalmarsson - Joker, the new age Defensive Dman - Johnson, the toughness- Samuelsson/Borgen, the transition guy - Bryson, the offensive guy - Laaksonen). Our goaltending prospects are also solid.

These trades/moves also give us decent cap. If the Pegulas really cheap out, they could skip Kyle Clifford (I wouldn't. We need that veteran toughness).

This plan doesn't have that pipedream sexy move, but it's realistic, simple, and gives us a chance to actually develop the talent we possess rather than selling low.

If Jack continues to grow, Skinner rebounds with a real center, Ullmark continues to grow into a real 1, Dahlin transcends, we'll be a playoff pushing team in 2021-2022, AND have a bright future that's close.

 

[Fjordy]

Final mock for a while. I've refined this one for weeks, to the point where I don't think I improve it.
This is a realistic path back to success. Rather than firesale a bunch of assets for a likely short-term answer, here's the plan:

Step 1:
Trade two dmen who didn't perform well in Krueger's system to completely stabilize the center spine. If this team doesn't make the playoffs, it'll be on offensive talent, not completely broken team composition. (I know Krueger loves Risto, but math doesn't)

Zacha may not get people excited, but he's an elite penalty killer on a beautiful contract, and the kind of center Skinner has played well with. (NJD was also rumored to want Risto, and rumored to be dangling Zacha).

Tierney is the ideal Larsson replacement, and saves us the trouble of paying Montour. (Btw, Ottawa fans love this deal.)


Step 2:

Use ufa to fill out the defense, short term. Solutions are coming, so just try to find some good placeholders. Gudas would be perfect next to Dahlin. Sekera can be a good vet 3rd-pair guy on the cheap.


Step 3:

BE PATIENT and wait for pick-8, Cozens, and Mittelstadt to lead the charge. Every kind of dman prospect you can want, we have. (The superstar - Dahlin, the Hjalmarsson - Joker, the new age Defensive Dman - Johnson, the toughness- Samuelsson/Borgen, the transition guy - Bryson, the offensive guy - Laaksonen). Our goaltending prospects are also solid.

These trades/moves also give us decent cap. If the Pegulas really cheap out, they could skip Kyle Clifford (I wouldn't. We need that veteran toughness).

This plan doesn't have that pipedream sexy move, but it's realistic, simple, and gives us a chance to actually develop the talent we possess rather than selling low.

If Jack continues to grow, Skinner rebounds with a real center, Ullmark continues to grow into a real 1, Dahlin transcends, we'll be a playoff pushing team in 2021-2022, AND have a bright future that's close.

Hutton? Nah

 

[Jim Bob]

Hutton? Nah

In all likelihood, they are going to need to ride out the last year of his deal.

 

[Gabrielor]

Hutton? Nah

I tried. Hard.

We're stuck.

The best I could do was sign Ullmark to a 1 year deal. I have good feelings on Ullmark, but I'm still not sure if he's the guy. Both him and Hutton will be UFA's in 2021 per my mock, so it'll force him to sink or swim, and give us freedom on how to handle goaltending going into Eichel's prime.

 

[Gabrielor]

Btw, one of the most important thing Kevyn Adams can do for us this off-season is fixing the development process of prospects (stop rushing guys into top 9 spots, especially at center).

 

[flashsabre]

Waive Hutton. You either want to get better or you don’t. He cost this team the chance to play in this bastardized playoff format (and a chance at the #1 pick)

 

[Fezzy126]

Final mock for a while. I've refined this one for weeks, to the point where I don't think I can improve it.
This is a realistic path back to success. Rather than firesale a bunch of assets for a likely short-term answer, here's the plan:

Step 1:
Trade two dmen who didn't perform well in Krueger's system to completely stabilize the center spine. If this team doesn't make the playoffs, it'll be on offensive talent, not completely broken team composition. (I know Krueger loves Risto, but math doesn't)

Zacha may not get people excited, but he's an elite penalty killer on a beautiful contract, and the kind of center Skinner has played well with. (NJD was also rumored to want Risto, and rumored to be dangling Zacha).

Tierney is the ideal Larsson replacement, and saves us the trouble of paying Montour. (Btw, Ottawa fans love this deal.)


Step 2:

Use ufa to fill out the defense, short term. Solutions are coming, so just try to find some good placeholders. Gudas would be perfect next to Dahlin. Sekera can be a good vet 3rd-pair guy on the cheap.


Step 3:

BE PATIENT and wait for pick-8, Cozens, and Mittelstadt to lead the charge. Every kind of dman prospect you can want, we have. (The superstar - Dahlin, the Hjalmarsson - Joker, the new age Defensive Dman - Johnson, the toughness- Samuelsson/Borgen, the transition guy - Bryson, the offensive guy - Laaksonen). Our goaltending prospects are also solid.

These trades/moves also give us decent cap. If the Pegulas really cheap out, they could skip Kyle Clifford (I wouldn't. We need that veteran toughness).

This plan doesn't have that pipedream sexy move, but it's realistic, simple, and gives us a chance to actually develop the talent we possess rather than selling low.

If Jack continues to grow, Skinner rebounds with a real center, Ullmark continues to grow into a real 1, Dahlin transcends, we'll be a playoff pushing team in 2021-2022, AND have a bright future that's close.

I don't get the love for Zacha, he's basically the forward version of Risto. Only he produced his terribad analytics while in a 4th line role (at least Risto has the excuse of deployment). The guy is just never in the right position. We already poached a player from one of the worst lines in the league on one of the worst teams in the league, I'd rather stay away from the other two.

I like Tierney but he's a perimeter player, I'd rather overpay to keep Larsson for that 3rd line.

 

[Fjordy]

In all likelihood, they are going to need to ride out the last year of his deal.

Why? Trade him , buyout him, send it to Rochester. If he stays again and shows bad results, then I don’t even know if this organization really doesn’t learn anything?

 

[Fjordy]

Waive Hutton. You either want to get better or you don’t. He cost this team the chance to play in this bastardized playoff format (and a chance at the #1 pick)

It seems people do not learn anything, if Hutton was bad, get rid of him. Next time, his knee will hurt and he won’t tell anyone, he will play for two months with a salvation 87%, and the coaching staff will think what happened to him. Do not repeat the same mistakes and this is the only way this organization can get out of that deep bottom into which it fell.

 

[lauraP]

w

I tried. Hard.

We're stuck.

The best I could do was sign Ullmark to a 1 year deal. I have good feelings on Ullmark, but I'm still not sure if he's the guy. Both him and Hutton will be UFA's in 2021 per my mock, so it'll force him to sink or swim, and give us freedom on how to handle goaltending going into Eichel's prime.

trade Hutton+pick? for raanta/georgiev

 

[sabresEH]

Why? Trade him , buyout him, send it to Rochester. If he stays again and shows bad results, then I don’t even know if this organization really doesn’t learn anything?

By all accounts he's a consummate pro and unfortunately that means something in this league. He'll be given a chance to rebound next year but I have faith that if Krueger doesn't like what he sees he'll get JJ up here quick to backup Ullmark until a move can be made. Also, I'm pretty sure the last couple years we have seen goalies go on the waiver wire after camp. Just pick one of those guys up if Hutton sucks in camp.

 

[Fjordy]

By all accounts he's a consummate pro and unfortunately that means something in this league. He'll be given a chance to rebound next year but I have faith that if Krueger doesn't like what he sees he'll get JJ up here quick to backup Ullmark until a move can be made. Also, I'm pretty sure the last couple years we have seen goalies go on the waiver wire after camp. Just pick one of those guys up if Hutton sucks in camp.

Pro? How did he then play with poor eyesight for months, it doesn’t look like a professional.

 

[lauraP]

Can't wait until risto gets traded to an actually half decent team and is slotted on the 2nd pairing and not playing 25+minutes a night so everyone on HF can roast the sabres for another year and a half