Prospect Info: 2019 1st Round Pick: Philip Broberg Part 3

[snipes]

Exactly. On the whole, I expect Broberg to be less valuable than Nurse is. People undervalue Nurse a lot IMO, due to his defensive gaffes that occur from time to time, where he completely lose his man or forgets basic positioning. But Nurse brings a lot to the table: speed, physicality, intimidation, good zone exit/entry, ability to play large minutes without wearing down and above average defensive zone coverage (even with those gaffes). Broberg doesn't look to be as complete of a player as Nurse is. Nurse is a pretty decent #2 guy, whereas I see Broberg as a 2nd pairing guy.

Agreed. I’m a big Nurse fan and believe overall he has an absolute net positive for us.

The organization is very high on him as well, he’s still young by D men standards and only just now about to enter his prime years.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Just to address some of the Bouchard vs Broberg talk in the other thread.

I'll say this: despite having watched more of Broberg than Bouchard this year, I still couldn't tell you with any certainty what type of player Broberg will become while I think I can predict Bouchard's NHL career with a fair degree of accuracy. Bouchard strikes me as a guarantee to become a #4D and #1PP QB at the very least. If his skating and defensive game can continue to improve, he has the potential to be a John Carlson-lite defenseman if everything goes right.

I think there's a wider range of scenarios regarding how Broberg will turn out as an NHLer. I do still see some "bust" potential; if he doesn't put it together, he might top out as a 3rd pairing guy that wows you every so often. But I also think he has true #1D potential, whereas Bouchard's weaknesses (depending on how you classify a #1D) probably limit his ability to become a true do-it-all #1D. I think current Miro Heiskanen is a decent comparable for Broberg's ceiling, though I doubt he reaches that level defensively. The point totals don't jump off the stat page but he provides so much value in transition and can create offense single-handedly.

The two of them are neck-and-neck for me as prospects. It comes down to how you value upside vs certainty in my opinion.

One last thing: some posters have mentioned that Broberg and Bouchard could be ideal partners for each other in the future, I don't see it. Their opposite skillsets might seem to complement one another but I think they both need steadier partners to allow them to do their thing.

 

[Anarchism]

Just to address some of the Bouchard vs Broberg talk in the other thread.

I'll say this: despite having watched more of Broberg than Bouchard this year, I still couldn't tell you with any certainty what type of player Broberg will become while I think I can predict Bouchard's NHL career with a fair degree of accuracy. Bouchard strikes me as a guarantee to become a #4D and #1PP QB at the very least. If his skating and defensive game can continue to improve, he has the potential to be a John Carlson-lite defenseman if everything goes right.

I think there's a wider range of scenarios regarding how Broberg will turn out as an NHLer. I do still see some "bust" potential; if he doesn't put it together, he might top out as a 3rd pairing guy that wows you every so often. But I also think he has true #1D potential, whereas Bouchard's weaknesses (depending on how you classify a #1D) probably limit his ability to become a true do-it-all #1D. I think current Miro Heiskanen is a decent comparable for Broberg's ceiling, though I doubt he reaches that level defensively. The point totals don't jump off the stat page but he provides so much value in transition and can create offense single-handedly.

The two of them are neck-and-neck for me as prospects. It comes down to how you value upside vs certainty in my opinion.

One last thing: some posters have mentioned that Broberg and Bouchard could be ideal partners for each other in the future, I don't see it. Their opposite skillsets might seem to complement one another but I think they both need steadier partners to allow them to do their thing.

He is not Miro. At the NHL level Broberg maybe will become that defenseman that either gets the puck in the dzone or the other players will get him the puck and he will skate out under pressure to the ozone--the team will become dependent on him to do this--and once he is there he will make good short passes.
As far as being a general on the PP or elite passer ...or even a d with a booming shot i dont think its there.
He probably will walk the line and look to pass more often than not...

This kind of defenseman is hard to come by and is truly elite....they are rare....Serge Savard maybe being the gold standard of this type.
If the truly unlikely was to happen and Broberg reached most of his potential and Holloway reached most of his (LW for David) we wouldnt need much better goaltending lol.

With Bouchard, I agree with you. Of the defenseman we have perhaps if Jones continues to develop all around he could provide that steady presence for him. Oskar could have but who knows where that leads?

 

[Oilhawks]

Exactly. On the whole, I expect Broberg to be less valuable than Nurse is. People undervalue Nurse a lot IMO, due to his defensive gaffes that occur from time to time, where he completely lose his man or forgets basic positioning. But Nurse brings a lot to the table: speed, physicality, intimidation, good zone exit/entry, ability to play large minutes without wearing down and above average defensive zone coverage (even with those gaffes). Broberg doesn't look to be as complete of a player as Nurse is. Nurse is a pretty decent #2 guy, whereas I see Broberg as a 2nd pairing guy.

I’d say a lot overvalue him. Nurse is a decent middle-pair guy that’s already overpaid on a bridge and his supporters have a tendency to heavily cherry-pick stats or take them without context. Ex: Elite zone entry. Well, great, but that’s usually followed up with a muffin shot to the crest of a goaltender and loss of possession. Stats need to be combined with context of eye test to be effective.

Nurse is 25 and likely a finished product. Perhaps he becomes more consistent defensively (I’d like to see that but am not holding my breath).



Broberg on the other hand is a 19 year old in his D+2 and is playing in one of the most defensive leagues in the world while doing fine stats / box car wise and for those watching is actually looking good playing as well. Unlucky bounces (also on the part of his teammates) have kept him from keeping a more steady point production pace.

 

[McDNicks17]

I’d say a lot overvalue him. Nurse is a decent middle-pair guy that’s already overpaid on a bridge and his supporters have a tendency to heavily cherry-pick stats or take them without context. Ex: Elite zone entry. Well, great, but that’s usually followed up with a muffin shot to the crest of a goaltender and loss of possession. Stats need to be combined with context of eye test to be effective.

Nurse is 25 and likely a finished product. Perhaps he becomes more consistent defensively (I’d like to see that but am not holding my breath).



Broberg on the other hand is a 19 year old in his D+2 and is playing in one of the most defensive leagues in the world while doing fine stats / box car wise and for those watching is actually looking good playing as well. Unlucky bounces (also on the part of his teammates) have kept him from keeping a more steady point production pace.

Speaking of cherry picking haha...

Anything that says Jones should be the highest paid defenseman on the team and that Larsson should be paid less than league minimum obviously shouldn't be taken seriously.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I’d say a lot overvalue him. Nurse is a decent middle-pair guy that’s already overpaid on a bridge and his supporters have a tendency to heavily cherry-pick stats or take them without context. Ex: Elite zone entry. Well, great, but that’s usually followed up with a muffin shot to the crest of a goaltender and loss of possession. Stats need to be combined with context of eye test to be effective.

Nurse is 25 and likely a finished product. Perhaps he becomes more consistent defensively (I’d like to see that but am not holding my breath).



Broberg on the other hand is a 19 year old in his D+2 and is playing in one of the most defensive leagues in the world while doing fine stats / box car wise and for those watching is actually looking good playing as well. Unlucky bounces (also on the part of his teammates) have kept him from keeping a more steady point production pace.

This chart says Nurse is only worth 0.9m a year?

edit - looks like that -4.7 is both years so hes making 2.35m too much a year.

Either way that chart is saying Jones should be getting paid more than Nurse, that says all you need to know on how bad that chart is.

Khaira should be paying the oilers 900k to play for them too apparently.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Broberg scores! 2 game point-streak for him, still a period left to play. This is likely his last game until the WJC so I'm glad he's going to Edmonton on a high note.

 

[Barrsy]

Broberg scores! 2 game point-streak for him, still a period left to play. This is likely his last game until the WJC so I'm glad he's going to Edmonton on a high note.

He must be playing unbelievable to have a point in each of the last 2 games.

 

[Oilhawks]

Speaking of cherry picking haha...

Anything that says Jones should be the highest paid defenseman on the team and that Larsson should be paid less than league minimum obviously shouldn't be taken seriously.

This chart says Nurse is only worth 0.9m a year?

edit - looks like that -4.7 is both years so hes making 2.35m too much a year.

Either way that chart is saying Jones should be getting paid more than Nurse, that says all you need to know on how bad that chart is.

Khaira should be paying the oilers 900k to play for them too apparently.

The chart is not without merit. I look at it like a value relative to dollar figure which doesn’t look too far off in most cases.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Broberg scores! 2 game point-streak for him, still a period left to play. This is likely his last game until the WJC so I'm glad he's going to Edmonton on a high note.

Do you have a stream??

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Broberg scores! 2 game point-streak for him, still a period left to play. This is likely his last game until the WJC so I'm glad he's going to Edmonton on a high note.

That was a sweet pass haha

 

[Tobias Kahun]

The chart is not without merit. I look at it like a value relative to dollar figure which doesn’t look too far off in most cases.

A chart where it comes to conclusion that Jones should get paid more than Nurse is pretty far off.

It's much easier to look good getting the usage Jones does.

 

[Anarchism]

That was a sweet pass haha

Yeah like he planned for that deflection into a rolling puck ....lol
Plus those knuckleballs are always so easy for the goalie to predict trajectory...ahahaa

 

[sportsfan944804]

Broberg led all defencemen in ice time today, and that goal was a beauty. Here's to hoping he has an absolutely dominant WJC this year.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

He’s also 15th in SOG this season among all skaters.

 

[Oilhawks]

A chart where it comes to conclusion that Jones should get paid more than Nurse is pretty far off.

It's much easier to look good getting the usage Jones does.

One could also argue that Nurse gets some pretty sweet minutes with the best forward in the league or the best line in the league post January (centred by a one of the other best forwards in the league). Bear came down a bit towards the end but was a fantastic partner especially as a rookie.

Don’t get me wrong, Nurse is a fine d man but I’m concerned that he gets hyped as a top pairing guy by a significant portion of the fan base. He should be anchoring the 2nd pair and be paid accordingly and I don’t think that should be considered an insult.

 

[Oilhawks]

Yeah like he planned for that deflection into a rolling puck ....lol
Plus those knuckleballs are always so easy for the goalie to predict trajectory...ahahaa

Burner account identified!

 

[McDNicks17]

One could also argue that Nurse gets some pretty sweet minutes with the best forward in the league or the best line in the league post January (centred by a one of the other best forwards in the league). Bear came down a bit towards the end but was a fantastic partner especially as a rookie.

Don’t get me wrong, Nurse is a fine d man but I’m concerned that he gets hyped as a top pairing guy by a significant portion of the fan base. He should be anchoring the 2nd pair and be paid accordingly and I don’t think that should be considered an insult.

Until someone better comes along and bumps him down, he'll be anchoring the top pairing and be paid like it.

Hopefully Broberg can be that guy.

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

He’s also 15th in SOG this season among all skaters.

Nice to see since our players like to pass up good chances left and right.

 

[Oilhawks]

Until someone better comes along and bumps him down, he'll be anchoring the top pairing and be paid like it.

Hopefully Broberg can be that guy.

It’s a real shame about Klefbom, he protected the team from overpaying Nurse.

I suspect something like 7x7 but I hope I’m wrong.

Maybe Broberg or Bouchard make the team this year and prevents that from happening next year.

 

[Oilhawks]

Nice to see since our players like to pass up good chances left and right.

Between him, Bouchard and Barrie (maybe Bear and Jones if they feel able to activate more), the team should have many reasonable options for shots from D men for seasons to come.

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

It’s a real shame about Klefbom, he protected the team from overpaying Nurse.

I suspect something like 7x7 but I hope I’m wrong.

Maybe Broberg or Bouchard make the team this year and prevents that from happening next year.

 

[Soundwave]

Even though he had a bit of a slump there, 7 points in 19 games is quite a bit better than Oscar Klefbom at the same age.

If he's a better/equal to Klefbom that's more than fine for a no.7/8/9 range pick. The Oilers badly need a player like that in their system since Klefbom himself is probably done here.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

One could also argue that Nurse gets some pretty sweet minutes with the best forward in the league or the best line in the league post January (centred by a one of the other best forwards in the league). Bear came down a bit towards the end but was a fantastic partner especially as a rookie.

Don’t get me wrong, Nurse is a fine d man but I’m concerned that he gets hyped as a top pairing guy by a significant portion of the fan base. He should be anchoring the 2nd pair and be paid accordingly and I don’t think that should be considered an insult.

And jones gets some sweet minutes being incredibly sheltered playing on the third pairing.

 

[Oilhawks]

And jones gets some sweet minutes being incredibly sheltered playing on the third pairing.

Yup. Glad they had the left D depth and weren’t forced to play him in the top 4.