Prospect Info: 2019 1st Round Pick: Philip Broberg Part 3

[oobga]

Broberg got his first point in 10 games!!!!

Back on track baby.

 

[Soundwave]

I see a very dynamic quality in his game even if he's not always banking points, but the fact that he can do those Bobby Orr style rushes to the net (NOT SAYING he is Bobby Orr, simply those plays are stylistically reminiscent) is still interesting.

I hope he maintains that and continues to try it at the NHL level, here he may benefit a lot from McDavid/Draisaitl sucking in defensive attention and giving him a little more time and space.

I think this is what happened to Yamamoto too ... talented player but wasn't putting up sky high numbers in the AHL per se, but he plays better with better players because he gets that little extra time and space and takes advantage.

 

[Draiskull]

What about Broberg's game makes you confident that he'll be a big goal scorer at the NHL level?

He's just not a high level offensive producer. Never has been and likely never will be.
IMO, you guys are setting the bar too high if you think he'll be a bigger point producer than Nurse.

Broberg seems to know what to do when he has the puck in the offensive zone compared to Nurse.
Having played forward for a bit gives him the offensive instinct edge over Nurse. In theory Broberg should get more points than Nurse if he establishes himself as a NHL regular. Broberg has a long ways to go before becoming a NHL regular. even longer to be a top 4 Dman.
If he ever gets to Nurse' level playing similar minutes he would be more productive offensively.

 

[MoontoScott]

This is what I see as well. He doesn't have the offensive IQ or high-end offensive skills to be a real threat to score by the looks of things. However, if he can exit the zone with the puck under control and skate out of danger in his own zone (both of which he appears to do quite well in fact), that is a very valuable skill to have. I personally don't see a top-pairing guy that can also play on your PP (even a 2nd PP to be honest), but I see a guy who could be a 2nd pairing guy who chips in with 15-20 points a year.

To compare him to our current Dmen, he is almost a mix of Nurse and Klefbom, without Nurses physical play, or Klefboms bomb shot (at least before his shoulder injuries). He has better wheels than Nurse, and seems to have a slightly better idea of what to do with the puck on the rush than Nurse. He doesn't have Klefbom's shot, but his superior skating and similar or slightly better size should allow him to cover more defensive territory than Klefbom does.

I think it is really going to boil down to his defensive awareness and ability to play sound positional hockey, as it does for many dmen I suppose. But with Broberg, his physical attributes are so good, that if he can at least be average positionally, he can make up the rest with speed + size.

Yes, if you compare Broberg's skating abilities to the guys we have on D right now then he is probably the best --as of today.

Its tough to judge the upside of a 19 year old D-man. Just look at how 1 year ago nobody thought of Bear as an every day D-man but here he is.

I think Broberg could be a top pairing D-man but as you say, the size and speed allows him to exit the zone and when it comes to "exiting the D-zone" this franchise has had a problem with this skill set since 1978.

We shall see but right now I like the pick.

 

[MoontoScott]

Except Broberg is 19 playing a mens league. Wait till he's 22

Yes that's the thing--a teenager playing in a men's league is a world apart from playing Junior A.

 

[McSpecial DraiBlend]

And a low scoring league at that. I'm never to obsessed with numbers from the SHL.

Yes that's the thing--a teenager playing in a men's league is a world apart from playing Junior A.

 

[Senor Catface]

And a low scoring league at that. I'm never to obsessed with numbers from the SHL.

Yeah, a low scoring league and he's comparatively much younger than other players above him in points.

He's tied for 15th in the league for defenseman points, and the average age of the players in front of him is 25.8.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

Yeah, a low scoring league and he's comparatively way younger than other players above him in points.

He's tied for 15th in the league for defenseman points, and the average age of the players in front of him is 25.8.

Bust.

If age equates to more points and he's not 25 years old by now then what hope does he have for putting up more points in the SHL, let alone the NHL. He'll never catch up in age to the SHL guys above him so you gotta figure the NHL is out of the question.

And for the people comparing him to Klefbom or Nurse those two are 27 and 25 respectively. At 6 years younger than Nurse, Broberg doesn't even have a hope of being that old right now so you can clearly write him off.

Am I doing stats right?

 

[voxel]

I actually thought he looked decent in the nhl. Him and Klefbom had really good success to start the year even if his game was less than perfect. The Oilers as a team played great when he was in our top 4.

One of those players that was somehow staying a float in an extremely difficult role. Not sure he got a legit chance from the big club for whatever reason.

Your evaluation of Persson is based on a small sample size and way off. He was absolutely horrid in the AHL. Kind of rovered around offensively and maybe it’s because the AHL is less structured but I don’t recall him being in position ever. He looked lost.

 

[ujju2]

I actually thought he looked decent in the nhl. Him and Klefbom had really good success to start the year even if his game was less than perfect. The Oilers as a team played great when he was in our top 4.

One of those players that was somehow staying a float in an extremely difficult role. Not sure he got a legit chance from the big club for whatever reason.

I completely disagree with your take on Broberg, but I have to agree with this. I thought Persson played quite well and deserved a longer look. For whatever reason they moved away from him real quick. Oh well. We have Bear-Larsson-Barrie down the right side now with Bouchard coming up so I'm not losing any sleep over it. I do hope Persson gets another chance in the NHL soon though.

 

[Aerchon]

Your evaluation of Persson is based on a small sample size and way off. He was absolutely horrid in the AHL. Kind of rovered around offensively and maybe it’s because the AHL is less structured but I don’t recall him being in position ever. He looked lost.

I had heard he had troubles in the AHL but it's not unusual for some players to struggle because of the ahl lack of structure/talent and do better in the nhl.

I'm not losing any sleep over it. It is what it is. I am not saying he was awesome. But he was not lost during his nhl time. Overwhelmed at times when under pressure, but thats most players making a jump to the nhl.

Chemistry, especially with defensive pairings, can make certain players look way better or worse. I thought he looked decent with Klefbom and if by coincidence or not the team was playing well with him in a top 4 role.

Thought I heard he was doing very well back at home again. Best of luck to him.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Like Klefbom’s? Who actually gets PP time with them?

It's no question that both do. Klef has been a black hole of suck offensively at ES the last few years. IMO Bear and Jones are both more skilled offensively than Nurse and Klef are. As we start getting some actual offensive skill on D broken into the NHL, Nurse should be bumped down in terms of offensive options on D as should Klef if he returns.

 

[BarDownBobo]

I also don’t, people forget Nurse was a good Junior player offensively also.

Now I think Nurse’s offensive contributions are greatly under appreciated here.


Those aren’t numbers to scoff at

Could it not be argued that his numbers are inflated due to huge minutes with two of the best players in the world?

I hate this tweet from Stauffer because it’s really misleading imo. The main reason Nurse is so high on that list is just due to the sheer minutes he’s played in that time frame. He’s stayed healthy and played every game in that time frame which has lead to him having the 2nd most 5v5 minutes in the league amongst defensemen. Now I don’t wanna make it sound like a bad thing that he’s stayed healthy because that’s obviously a huge plus, but it just really paints a misleading picture. Shouldn’t be using that kind of metric to judge Nurse’s offensive acumen.

 

[Stoneman89]

Yes, if you compare Broberg's skating abilities to the guys we have on D right now then he is probably the best --as of today.

Its tough to judge the upside of a 19 year old D-man. Just look at how 1 year ago nobody thought of Bear as an every day D-man but here he is.

I think Broberg could be a top pairing D-man but as you say, the size and speed allows him to exit the zone and when it comes to "exiting the D-zone" this franchise has had a problem with this skill set since 1978.

We shall see but right now I like the pick.

Not to be picky, but you mean 1988, no 1978, right? 1988 is the year we traded Coffey. And for a fleeting beautiful moment in time, we Plunger, I mean Pronger.

 

[MoontoScott]

Not to be picky, but you mean 1988, no 1978, right? 1988 is the year we traded Coffey. And for a fleeting beautiful moment in time, we Plunger, I mean Pronger.

For all of his talent, was Coffey great at clearing the zone?

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

Broberg got his first point in 10 games!!!!

Back on track baby.

 

[Barrsy]

I actually thought he looked decent in the nhl.Him and Klefbom had really good success to start the year even if his game was less than perfect. The Oilers as a team p great when he was in our top 4.

One of those players that was somehow staying a float in an extremely difficult role. Not sure he got a legit chance from the big club for whatever reason.

Stat watching in the SHL is stupid. Klefbom proved that in spades. But reports on Broberg are that he is struggling. It is what it is. Most prospects have rough patches, not the end of the world.

Come one, come all folks. I cant go back & look but he musta had an apple? +1?
Cause thats the only way he gets positive reviews.
But it is from Box car guy.

Cause this is funny

 

[Barrsy]

I had heard

Thought I heard he was doing very well back at home again. Best of luck to him.

Bingo

 

[Fourier]

For all of his talent, was Coffey great at clearing the zone?

Absloutely!

 

[OiledUp]

Bust.

If age equates to more points and he's not 25 years old by now then what hope does he have for putting up more points in the SHL, let alone the NHL. He'll never catch up in age to the SHL guys above him so you gotta figure the NHL is out of the question.

And for the people comparing him to Klefbom or Nurse those two are 27 and 25 respectively. At 6 years younger than Nurse, Broberg doesn't even have a hope of being that old right now so you can clearly write him off.

Am I doing stats right?

Finally some proper statistical analysis in this thread. Age is also one of those things that never changes with time so it's without a doubt going to be an issue going forward. If only there was some sort of way to get older.

 

[McJadeddog]

Nurse doesn't have high end offensive skills either but he still manages to get 25+ points. Broberg has way more hockey IQ and skill than him. He will not just be a 15-20 points scorer

I'm not sure that he does have a lot more hockey IQ than nurse. Maybe a little bit, but not a lot. If he ends up eventually playing the same mins as Nurse does currently, I would expect "about the same" production as Nurse. To be honest though, we're all guessing quite a bit here, as he is so young, and most of us haven't had a chance to watch 20+ games played yet, so we are guessing from smaller sample sizes.

 

[McJadeddog]

I know you don't specifically state it, but it seems like you are saying one reason you project low point totals for Broberg compared to Nurse will be due to Broberg getting lower PP time (and thus less PP points). I just wanted to point out that Nurse doesn't get much PP time either. Regarding his point totals I think he only has like 15 points on the PP of 74 points scored over the last 2 seasons.

Not argumentative, just though I would point it out.

I was not excited over the Broberg signing, but I have come around. I hope it translates well to the NHL when he is ready for the big step.

Yeah, I know. I just don't expect ANY PP time for Broberg at all, at least in his first couple of seasons.

 

[McJadeddog]

Yeah Klefbom’s numbers away from Mcdavid and Drai are not great, and he wasn’t great offensively last year. If anything Nurse’s numbers are better than indicated because he spends a-lot of minutes away from them and doesn’t get PP time.

So getting back to the thread, if Broberg ends up anything like Nurse you are probably thrilled

Exactly. On the whole, I expect Broberg to be less valuable than Nurse is. People undervalue Nurse a lot IMO, due to his defensive gaffes that occur from time to time, where he completely lose his man or forgets basic positioning. But Nurse brings a lot to the table: speed, physicality, intimidation, good zone exit/entry, ability to play large minutes without wearing down and above average defensive zone coverage (even with those gaffes). Broberg doesn't look to be as complete of a player as Nurse is. Nurse is a pretty decent #2 guy, whereas I see Broberg as a 2nd pairing guy.

 

[McJadeddog]

I hate this tweet from Stauffer because it’s really misleading imo. The main reason Nurse is so high on that list is just due to the sheer minutes he’s played in that time frame. He’s stayed healthy and played every game in that time frame which has lead to him having the 2nd most 5v5 minutes in the league amongst defensemen. Now I don’t wanna make it sound like a bad thing that he’s stayed healthy because that’s obviously a huge plus, but it just really paints a misleading picture. Shouldn’t be using that kind of metric to judge Nurse’s offensive acumen.

While I like Nurse a lot and think he is easily a roughly "top-30 to 40" dman in the league, I agree with this. I could likely be convinced to rank Nurse in the 25-30 range overall even, depending what your criteria is for a dman. The stat that Bob posted is exceptionally misleading for the reasons you mention.

If you look at even strength P/60 over those same 3 seasons, Nurse is 50th in the league (min 500 mins played). Quite the ways away from 7th, as would be indicated by Bob's tweet. 50th is "about right" for Nurses even strength offensive ability for dmen in the league as well, at least from the eye-test anyhow.

 

[snipes]

Yeah, I know. I just don't expect ANY PP time for Broberg at all, at least in his first couple of seasons.

Me neither not if we have Barrie long term and Bouchard who is a PP wizard as well. Not to mention Bear is likely ahead of him as well.

Broberg is far more likely to get PK minutes rather than PP minutes at least early on which is fine.