Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft / Pick #9 - Vitali Kravtsov (RW) - Part IV

[Levitate]

This tournament is a much bigger development tool for him than missing 6-7 KHL games.

...why?

Why is it a better development tool than playing in a pro league against men?

I'm willing to concede your point but I don't really want to let it pass unchallenged without an explanation of your reasoning. I don't think anyone has really viewed the WJC as a developmental tool, rather more as a benchmark of development (which is problematic).

It's the best of the best...but still only under 20. A lot of these players will never be anything in the pros regardless of how they're viewed now.

e: the thing I hate about short tournaments like this is that there's no structure to the play at all. It's a bunch of kids pulling junior moves all over the place, trying to beat half the team and rarely do you have a cohesive strategy and team that plays anything resembling a pro style that will translate to a higher level.

Sure some players have individual skill that will transcend the jump to the next level but that's mainly the elite which is maybe a few players at best. Everyone else is going to live or die by how they can learn how to play a pro style game and use their teammates while minimizing mistakes and maximizing results

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

About all the "what's better for Kravtsov" chatter here, here's my 2 cents.

Long-term, playing pro hockey is better, but short-term it doesn't matter. He still plays against the best players in his age group. It's a 1-week tournament with 2 weeks leading up to it with some exibition games etc. It's hardly a long-term thing impacting his KHL season. When he comes back, it's another great experience he will learn from. It being hosted in Canada is huge for his development on a personal level. Think about it. Flying to Canada, meeting with NA reporters. It will be a great off-ice experience.

When he goes back, he will suit up for the All Star game and after that, the season is basically over.

Off the ice: Great for his development
On the ice: 50/50. It's not better than the KHL, but certainly not a waste of time either

 

[The Crypto Guy]

...why?

Why is it a better development tool than playing in a pro league against men?

I'm willing to concede your point but I don't really want to let it pass unchallenged without an explanation of your reasoning. I don't think anyone has really viewed the WJC as a developmental tool, rather more as a benchmark of development (which is problematic).

It's the best of the best...but still only under 20. A lot of these players will never be anything in the pros regardless of how they're viewed now.

e: the thing I hate about short tournaments like this is that there's no structure to the play at all. It's a bunch of kids pulling junior moves all over the place, trying to beat half the team and rarely do you have a cohesive strategy and team that plays anything resembling a pro style that will translate to a higher level.

Sure some players have individual skill that will transcend the jump to the next level but that's mainly the elite which is maybe a few players at best. Everyone else is going to live or die by how they can learn how to play a pro style game and use their teammates while minimizing mistakes and maximizing results

WJC is absolutely a huge developmental tool imo, the experience the kids get from these games supersedes probably every game these kids have played thus far this season and for most, the entire season.

Each of these games are much bigger than a regular season KHL game(ok maybe not vs Kazakhstan)
He will be looked as to lead a team to gold metal. Likely going to be wearing the C. Experience as being a leader.
Yes they are all under 20, but he is 18. It's going to be great to see how he lines up against his peers.
He gets to play on a small rink for a month, never too soon to start his adjustment.

Yes it's definitely a little out of sync but it's still a hell of a tournament that has the kids going 110% every shift and most of the games are fantastic when it gets to the metal rounds. All in all it's just great experience for them under high pressure. Plus it's only a couple weeks, i don't think him missing 6-7 KHL hurts him at all.

 

[Levitate]

About all the "what's better for Kravtsov" chatter here, here's my 2 cents.

Long-term, playing pro hockey is better, but short-term it doesn't matter. He still plays against the best players in his age group. It's a 1-week tournament with 2 weeks leading up to it with some exibition games etc. It's hardly a long-term thing impacting his KHL season. When he comes back, it's another great experience he will learn from. It being hosted in Canada is huge for his development on a personal level. Think about it. Flying to Canada, meeting with NA reporters. It will be a great off-ice experience.

When he goes back, he will suit up for the All Star game and after that, the season is basically over.

Yeah I don't think it's bad or anything, I'm happy he's going and think it's a good experience and all. I just don't see it as *better* than playing regular minutes in the KHL, or that it means more than playing those regular KHL minutes.

WJC is absolutely a huge developmental tool imo, the experience the kids get from these games supersedes probably every game these kids have played thus far this season and for most, the entire season.

Each of these games are much bigger than a regular season KHL game(ok maybe not vs Kazakhstan)
He will be looked as to lead a team to gold metal. Likely going to be wearing the C. Experience as being a leader.
Yes they are all under 20, but he is 18. It's going to be great to see how he lines up against his peers.
He gets to play on a small rink for a month, never too soon to start his adjustment.

Yes it's definitely a little out of sync but it's still a hell of a tournament that has the kids going 110% every shift and most of the games are fantastic when it gets to the metal rounds. All in all it's just great experience for them under high pressure.

Eh...I guess I just don't agree but maybe it ultimately falls on the player and their perceptions. It's still a juniors tournament, the level of competition is still below that of the KHL playoffs that Kravtsov excelled in last year, and while it's a national competition kind of thing it's still...just juniors. The real prize is the men's nationals team that competes in the Olympics and other pro level competitions.

To me, it's like making a big deal about high school prom and how it's so important in your life, when really that drunk weekend during college where you make out with your next long term g/f is a bigger deal

 

[nyr2k2]

As I said in one of the threads, I think regarding Chytil, all this stuff about being a leader, the magnitude of the games, etc., that's stuff that he will experience ten times over if he develops as anticipated. I'm not saying it's worthless and for a guy like Kravtsov, sure, why not, but I think the experience of the whole thing is overstated. It may be a fond memory but I don't think interacting with North American press for a week or being the go-to guy on your junior team is really going to have much of an impact on anything down the road. Like if he sprained his ankle and couldn't participate, I don't think three years from now he'd be any less of a player/leader/etc. than if he played in the damn thing.

 

[kovazub94]

Traktor's ineptitude makes his absolute offensive performance more impressive, but it does make it a little less impressive that he leads the team in points.

I disagree. It's easier to get points on an offensive juggernaut. Case in point - our old friend Zborovsky.

On the other hand it's more difficult to get points when your team is struggling offensively. Hypothetically if it was an alternative universe case where Kravtsov was getting less points than these previous Russian prospects, I'd use @Amazing Kreiderman percentage formula to show that his contribution is on par or close to these guys. Instead Kravtsov is contributing more to offensive of his team in a more difficult for scoring environment.

 

[Irishguy42]

I think the WJC is a decent development tool because you're now playing a bunch of games against and with, presumably, the best of your peers.

In the long-term, playing against men regularly is better. But in a league like the KHL, you're not playing with or against the absolute cream or the crop every game. Decent amount of teams are...garbage.

Don't think there is a problem with this in the short term.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I disagree. It's easier to get points on an offensive juggernaut. Case in point - our old friend Zborovsky.

On the other hand it's more difficult to get points when your team is struggling offensively. Hypothetically if it was an alternative universe case where Kravtsov was getting less points than these previous Russian prospects, I'd use @Amazing Kreiderman percentage formula to show that his contribution is on par or close to these guys. Instead Kravtsov is contributing more to offensive of his team in a more difficult for scoring environment.

Contribution percentage is the way to go!

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I generally think it’s a good change of pace for these kids to play in the WJCs and at a good time, they’re generally in their routines in their respective leagues and on their teams and now they’re thrust into a situation with a bunch of different pressures and challenges from what they were settled into. Even if they’re playing down in terms of competition by going to it, I don’t think development is 100% about just playing against the best competition 100% of the time

 

[kovazub94]

This tournament is a much bigger development tool for him than missing 6-7 KHL games.

I hope you're not expecting him to score 20 points in this thing. There are lots of "kids"playing in this tournament that are playing in a pro mens league. You have the best of the best kids going at it, half the KHLers wouldnt even make the AHL that he goes against in the KHL.

No way. Quality in KHL is way better than WJC and Kravtsov has already been put in a position to carry his team, again at a level of competition that significantly exceeds WJC.

 

[kovazub94]

Contribution percentage is the way to go!

It has its merit! : )

 

[Levitate]

I think the WJC is a decent development tool because you're now playing a bunch of games against and with, presumably, the best of your peers.

In the long-term, playing against men regularly is better. But in a league like the KHL, you're not playing with or against the absolute cream or the crop every game. Decent amount of teams are...garbage.

You could say that about the NHL or AHL as well though? Lotta "garbage" teams or players that are still better than many many many players who play in the WJC

e: the WJC isn't bad and I think it can be a good challenge for players regardless of the league they're playing in and all, but there's nothing about it that strikes me as being any kind of value developmentally. No one goes to these short tournaments to develop anything, they're an application of skills already obtained, IMO. And on top of that, a few tough games can be the difference between looking like a top tier elite prospect and a middle of the road guy regardless of how things actually pan out down the line.

it's a short tournament with almost no pro style coaching or systems work, there's almost nothing that screams predictive value or developmental value about it at all.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Contribution percentage is the way to go!

I think that taking team strength into account when looking at a prospect's performance is much more convoluted than we're giving it credit for. Ultimately, it's probably much closer to being a wash than either side of the debate believes.

But, if it's something that we're going to insist on doing, then I would agree that this is the best way to do it.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I think that taking team strength into account when looking at a prospect's performance is much more convoluted than we're giving it credit for. Ultimately, it's probably much closer to being a wash than either side of the debate believes.

But, if it's something that we're going to insist on doing, then I would agree that this is the best way to do it.

It's not flawless, I will agree with that. But it adds a little bit of context. Actually, we can thank Connor McDavid for this. His performance to start the season is what gave me the idea. He was involved in all 13 of his team's goals early on and thought that would be an interesting way of comparing Kravtsov's season to other D+1's

 

[Algernop Kreider]

I disagree. It's easier to get points on an offensive juggernaut. Case in point - our old friend Zborovsky.

On the other hand it's more difficult to get points when your team is struggling offensively. Hypothetically if it was an alternative universe case where Kravtsov was getting less points than these previous Russian prospects, I'd use @Amazing Kreiderman percentage formula to show that his contribution is on par or close to these guys. Instead Kravtsov is contributing more to offensive of his team in a more difficult for scoring environment.

So you believe that it's more impressive to be the best player on a bad team than it is to be the best player on a good team.

 

[One Winged Angel]

I hope you're not expecting him to score 20 points in this thing. There are lots of "kids"playing in this tournament that are playing in a pro mens league. You have the best of the best kids going at it, half the KHLers wouldnt even make the AHL that he goes against in the KHL.

I'm not expecting that nor do I not understand what you're saying.

What you're missing is that as much as talent level and competing against higher talent levels is important, so is level of physicality. He's going to play against a higher level of physicality and conditioning against men.

Also, you're pointing out the lack of talent on the bottom lines, a lot of times since Kravtsov is a focal point of Traktor's offense, he'll be out against better defenders and opposing forwards. So he's maintaining a somewhat consistent level of competition as is in the KHL, while playing against men.

We'll argue this circles, I have no doubt about that. When it's all said and done, I just hope it doesn't ruin the momentum he has going for him in the KHL right now. That's all.

 

[Harbour Dog]

It's not flawless, I will agree with that. But it adds a little bit of context. Actually, we can thank Connor McDavid for this. His performance to start the season is what gave me the idea. He was involved in all 13 of his team's goals early on and thought that would be an interesting way of comparing Kravtsov's season to other D+1's

It's definitely a piece of the puzzle that I don't mind quoting to my friends haha.

I'm surprised that it isn't a more widely used stat to be honest. I can't remembering actually seeing it on a stat sheet before; just quoted as tidbits of information during broadcasts and whatnot.

 

[nyr2k2]

I think the WJC is a decent development tool because you're now playing a bunch of games against and with, presumably, the best of your peers.

In the long-term, playing against men regularly is better. But in a league like the KHL, you're not playing with or against the absolute cream or the crop every game. Decent amount of teams are...garbage.

Don't think there is a problem with this in the short term.

I agree with your general point that there's not really a problem with this in Kravtsov's case, but to the bold--while true, even the garbage teams, the competition level is still far superior to a U20 tournament. Like if you look at Admiral (league worst I believe), pretty much every single forward has had "okay" to "good" KHL success. They have some Czech guys that have played nationally at both junior and top levels, a guy with a handful of NHL games and good AHL success, and so on. Defense is mostly the same, guys with varying degrees of KHL, other domestic leagues, and international experience and success. I mean the team may suck ass for a KHL team but they'd flatten a U20 squad, so even if he's not playing against the cream of the crop it's still better than what he'll face at the WJC. Not just the talent, strength, knowledge of the game, but also cohesive systems and all that.

But again, he's 18 or whatever so go on, have the experience. I don't think it matters for much but missing a handful of KHL games won't kill him.

 

[Profet]

Keeping in mind I know almost nothing of the KHL's rules and such... what are the odds of him getting traded (to another KHL team) for a playoff run? Has the KHL trade deadline passed? (Does the KHL have a trade deadline?)

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Keeping in mind I know almost nothing of the KHL's rules and such... what are the odds of him getting traded (to another KHL team) for a playoff run? Has the KHL trade deadline passed? (Does the KHL have a trade deadline?)

Deadline is the 28th of December

 

[Irishguy42]

I agree with your general point that there's not really a problem with this in Kravtsov's case, but to the bold--while true, even the garbage teams, the competition level is still far superior to a U20 tournament. Like if you look at Admiral (league worst I believe), pretty much every single forward has had "okay" to "good" KHL success. They have some Czech guys that have played nationally at both junior and top levels, a guy with a handful of NHL games and good AHL success, and so on. Defense is mostly the same, guys with varying degrees of KHL, other domestic leagues, and international experience and success. I mean the team may suck ass for a KHL team but they'd flatten a U20 squad, so even if he's not playing against the cream of the crop it's still better than what he'll face at the WJC. Not just the talent, strength, knowledge of the game, but also cohesive systems and all that.

But again, he's 18 or whatever so go on, have the experience. I don't think it matters for much but missing a handful of KHL games won't kill him.

Yeah I worded it poorly. My bad. Train was coming.

Oh well, I'll leave it.

 

[duhmetreE]

Imagine this is our elite center

 

[bobbop]

Back in the dark ages when I was in the minor leagues we used contribution percentage as a way to set up our checking lines and forward rotation.

 

[ColonialsHockey10]

I have no problem using the WJC as a tool to evaluate guys. But when you have someone like Kravtsov who is doing special things in the second-best league in the world, against men, you don't need to "check back with" anyone after the tournament to know what you need to know about the kid.

Yep, I was agreeing with you.

 

[Tawnos]

I think that taking team strength into account when looking at a prospect's performance is much more convoluted than we're giving it credit for. Ultimately, it's probably much closer to being a wash than either side of the debate believes.

But, if it's something that we're going to insist on doing, then I would agree that this is the best way to do it.

One of the nuances that’s not being mentioned here is that Kravtsov likely wouldn’t be getting as much ice time as he is in Traktor if he was on a stronger team. And possibly not with the quality of line mates, though of course a better team means a deeper team so maybe still good line mates.