Line Combos: 2018-2019 Starting Roster

[garret9]

Laine has been consistently breaking xGF (and therefore xGA too) model, let alone SH%.

As mentioned, not only was Ehlers-Copp-Laine doing great job, also Copp-Scheifele-Laine did work really well for the short stint they had together. Copp is a great complimentary player that can fit many roles.

The biggest reason ECL worked so well was that barring couple of games Little never played on same page than Ehlers + Laine, but at least Copp had zero ego issues to do so, and you could see how motivated Laine and also Ehlers were when given a chance. Also Copp understands simple things like it's a good idea to give Laine a shooting opportunity, which has been surprisingly hard idea to grasp for some players.

Not saying Copp is a TOP-6 player, but he could really be used as that to spread the talent and give more room for eg. Scheif + Laine duo. That's really quite old concept to have one less skilled guy with great physical play, work ethics as such with couple of star level players. Just for an example, Ville Nieminen played with Forsberg and Drury in 2001 when Colorado won the Stanley Cup.

Recent examples of the idea are using Hyman as a grinder for AM and using just like anybody with Crosby...

Laine, who Copp is not, "breaking xGs" still has half the PDO gap that the line did with PDO.

Copp did not magically make that line a 106+ PDO line. Their goal results were exaggerated.

 

[garret9]

Copp-Scheifele-Wheeler (2016/17, 2017/18, data from Corsica Hockey)

CF% 53.7 (relCF% +4.51)
GF% 66.7 (relGF% +16.1)
xGF% 58.5 (relxGF% +8.79)
PenT 3 PenD 6

With Ehlers and Laine he had a relCF% of +9.38 and an xGF% of 55.1 (relxGF% +3.49), penD +1.

Copp has been a positive in just about every metric, including xGF% on every line (50+ minutes) except with Tanev and Armia over the past two seasons.

He's a really solid player who can play with lots of different types of linemates.

I didn't say he was bad.

I'm saying people view the 67 as that line's true talent when the 54 is more that line's true talent.

 

[Whileee]

I didn't say he was bad.

I'm saying people view the 67 as that line's true talent when the 54 is more that line's true talent.

Scheifele and Wheeler were surprisingly weak in CF last year, especially in the first half of the season.

 

[FiveHoled]

I can't help myself ...

Ehlers-Scheif-Laine
Connor-Little-Wheeler
Perreault-Roslo-Petan
Copp-Lowry-Tanev

PB: Dano
CallUps : Vesalainen / Lemieux / Appleton


Jmo-Trouba
Kulikov-Buff
Chairot-Myers
PB:Morrow/Poolman

Call-up : Niku (or a replacement for a traded D-man)

HelleB
<Insert Goalie>

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

Yes. I'm about 95-99% sure.

The best sustainable results that are talent driven are sh and sv being different in the decimal points... not being twice the size of the other. IE: If it's talent you may score 0.6 goals per 100 shots more than your opponents, not 6 goals per 100 shots.

Chemistry that displays only in the two areas we expect luck to show up in (on-ice sh% where we know players have some control but do not expect to have that extreme of results and on-ice sv% where players have almost no control over [unless they actively started acting differently and stopped trying]) but not showing up at all in any of the other areas and those areas being where luck has far less of a grab (and also in some of those areas being the force that acts upon the non-luck portion of the on-ice percentages)... is not really chemistry.



You want to see a real example of chemistry, look at Petan's with and without Thorburn (and Hendricks) results. Petan does better away, just like everyone else does. What separates this from being a QoT impact is that:
1) the gap is larger than others get with and without Thorburn
2) Petan has a negative impact on the weaker players (Thorburn) and a positive impact on the stronger players
3) we have a strong logical mechanism that a playmaker requires someone to make plays to rather than just saying Petan is a unicorn and does good with some players

 

[Halberdier]

Laine, who Copp is not, "breaking xGs" still has half the PDO gap that the line did with PDO.

Copp did not magically make that line a 106+ PDO line. Their goal results were exaggerated.

Copp didn't, but effectiveness of a line is not a sum of its linemates. ELL simply seems to be cancerous line, and when all those three were playing together, their numbers were simply bad.

Ehlers is a good hockey player, Little is a good hockey player and Laine is a good hockey player. Everyone of them is better as an individual than Copp. But ELL didn't blend. It worked to certain extent 16-17, at times, but 17-18 it was just a huge failure by Maurice.

Somehow Copp seems to be a player that blends fairly well with Laine. Sample size is small, no doubt of that, but so far that has been pretty good with both lines they have been playing together: CSL & ECL. Eye test matched the results on those games. Ehlers and esp. Laine seemed to be really excited about the switch, and that obviously gives some temporary boost as well.

 

[PhilJets]

Is it training camp yet?


Perrault Roslo and Petan is a decent 3rd line to start with. With a ton of potential to be able to do damage. Since opposing team best players will through their best defensive players against Jets top 2 lines.
While Lowry line clean up in the Dzone.

Defense.
Jets got signifcantly better.

Byfuglien
Morrissey
Trouba
Myers
Kulikov
Morrow*
Niku*
Poolman
Chairot


Maybe
Samberg and Stanley get a game or 2 towards the end of the year.

 

[Huffer]

I'll bite:

Laine - Scheifele - Wheeler (High minutes, more offensive pushes)
MP - Little - Ehlers (I believe this trio had good numbers, with MP and Little they are not bad defensively)
Copp - Lowry - Tanev (Tough defensive assignments)
Connor - Roslo - Petan (Offensive assignments, although this line scares me even though they've played together in the AHL)

I wouldn't mind seeing other combinations either. Switch MP and Connor in the above as a possibility. Or maybe putting Little and Wheeler back together.

 

[Peggy]

Obviously not possible
But what if ladd played with lowry? Good or bad?

 

[ffh]

pretty easy really. since roslovic wont play more minutes at centre then lowry or little and there is only 1 spot open for a forward.
connor scheifele wheeler
ehlers little laine
copp lowry tanev
Perreault roslovic vesalainen

 

[Stej]

Scheifele and Wheeler were surprisingly weak in CF last year, especially in the first half of the season.

This is pure eye test stuff but I found the Scheifele/ Wheeler line to be extremely selective with their shots last season, which I think kind of breaks the typical corsi/PDO-type analysis.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If he won't sign for 6x7m then I can't see the Jets affording him beyond this season.

6 years is just too long. 5 is probably too long but the risk is a little less. I hope he will take 4x7.5 but even that is a 5 years from now. 5 years is really pushing it, IMO.

The term issue is really a guessing game since there is no reliable indicator for longevity that I know of.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I can't help myself ...

Ehlers-Scheif-Laine
Connor-Little-Wheeler
Perreault-Roslo-Petan
Copp-Lowry-Tanev

PB: Dano
CallUps : Vesalainen / Lemieux / Appleton


Jmo-Trouba
Kulikov-Buff
Chairot-Myers
PB:Morrow/Poolman

Call-up : Niku (or a replacement for a traded D-man)

HelleB
<Insert Goalie>

I'd swap Ehlers and Connor, but otherwise I like it.

 

[Whileee]

This is pure eye test stuff but I found the Scheifele/ Wheeler line to be extremely selective with their shots last season, which I think kind of breaks the typical corsi/PDO-type analysis.

That was my assessment, too. I think that they could generate a lot more shots than they did if they cycled less and shot more. However, I also think that they had a tendency to get hemmed in their own zone and gave up a lot more shot attempts than I liked. I didn't think that either of them were particularly effective or diligent enough in breaking up opponents' possession in their own zone.

Interestingly, the Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler line's Corsi Against per 60 (CA/60) was worse than the ELL line, and much worse than Lowry's line (with Copp and Tanev).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ehlers - Scheifele - Wheeler
Connor - Little - Laine
Copp - Lowry - Tanev
Perreault - Roslovic - Petan
Dano

Morrissey - Trouba
Kulikov - Buff
Morrow - Myers
Chiarot & Poolman

Helle
Brossoit

 

[Howard Chuck]

That was my assessment, too. I think that they could generate a lot more shots than they did if they cycled less and shot more. However, I also think that they had a tendency to get hemmed in their own zone and gave up a lot more shot attempts than I liked. I didn't think that either of them were particularly effective or diligent enough in breaking up opponents' possession in their own zone.

Interestingly, the Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler line's Corsi Against per 60 (CA/60) was worse than the ELL line, and much worse than Lowry's line (with Copp and Tanev).

I agree with all of your post Whileee. CSW had great possession numbers because of the cycling, but they could have generated more offense. Also agree about getting hemmed in our zone. This was true of a few line combinations over the course of the season.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Perrault.... Scheif....Wheeler
Ehlers ....Little....Laine
Connor....Rozlo....Petan
Copp...Lowry....Tanev

Dano

Morrisey.....Trouba
Morrow......Buff
Kulikov....Myers

Chairot

Hellybuck.....Goalie off waivers

Lemieux....Appleton..... Spacek
Kerdiles....Griffen....Everberg
Mckenzie..... C.J. SEUSS....Lipon
xxxxxx....Harkins....xxxxx

Niku.....Poolman
Schilling......Green
Stanley.....Stroykevich
Bourque....Nogier
Cederholm

Brossolt...Comrie...Berdin

 

[Psych0dad]

One thing I will not tolerate is Little-Laine. You can get so much more with them separated. There is no rational reason to ever play them again. I gladly take Copp or Lowry as Laines center rather than Little. And Little would obviously be better with more conventional winger like Wheeler, they read the same plays.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

I'd swap Ehlers and Connor, but otherwise I like it.

Yeah same, he’s not as fast(that’s not saying much though as he’s extremely fast) but he’s actaully very good along the boards and in tight areas.

 

[10Ducky10]

Spread the wealth...

Petan - Scheifele - Laine
MP - Little - Wheeler
KC - Roslo - Ehlers
Copper - Lowry - Tanev/Dano
Maybe switch KC with Petan but I like that third line too much! If Vaseline makes the team, play him with Laine and Scheif.

JMo Trouba
Morrow Buff
Kuli Myers
Chiarot Morrow
Poolman gets called up if (when?) a RHD goes down. I still think trading Myers is a good idea.

Helle and somebody that can take 55ish% of the points in the 27 or so games he plays.

 

[rehf]

So many potential spots with lots of players to fill. Will be exciting come pre season

 

[Mud Turtle]

So many potential spots with lots of players to fill. Will be exciting come pre season

As long as management doesn’t screw it up and start losing good players to waivers. We’re at that point where we start to lose them if we don’t start trading the occasional vet for futures.

 

[KingBogo]

As long as management doesn’t screw it up and start losing good players to waivers. We’re at that point where we start to lose them if we don’t start trading the occasional vet for futures.

What good forwards are you worried about losing to waivers? Petan/Dano? And what vets do you want to move for futures? The only 3 forwards we have over 26 y/o are Wheeler, Little and MP and neither Petan or Dano is close to an up grade on any of them. On defense not sure who might be risked to waivers? Chiarot/Morrow? Vets are Buff, Myers, Kuli (no real trade value unless he proves healthy over a long period).

 

[garret9]

Perreault - Little - Laine
Petan - Scheifele - Wheeler
Ehlers - Roslovic - Connor
Copp - Lowry - Dano
Tanev

Fairly even 5v5 TOI, giving Roslovic line more TOI when trailing and Lowry line while leading. Vets and top can get their extra ice time through special teams.

Morrissey - Trouba
Niku - Byfuglien
Kulikov - Myers
Morrow
Chiarot

(Prefer Poolman... shoot Chiarot into sun)

Hellebuyck
Some waiver wire

?

Profit

Etch my name on the Stanley Cup

 

[Maukkis]

One thing I will not tolerate is Little-Laine. You can get so much more with them separated. There is no rational reason to ever play them again. I gladly take Copp or Lowry as Laines center rather than Little. And Little would obviously be better with more conventional winger like Wheeler, they read the same plays.

I guess you're better be ready for a disappointment.

I'm not happy with that combination either, but since Laine has several glaring weaknesses in his all-around game and cannot create much on his own, making a structured lineup with him in it is very tough. He needs to be sheltered and given someone to do the dirty work in front, along the boards etc., as well as a playmaker to get him the puck. I reckon Perreault-Little-Laine is the closest thing we can pull off at this point, provided that Maurice does not trust him to play against top competition. Besides, PLL actually worked very well in October.