Line Combos: 2018-2019 Starting Roster

[Trilliann]

Copp has been used for the same reason before.

 

[Conflicted Habs fan]

Ex Montreal coach Michel Thierren had this system of scrambling the forwards such that players were unsure who they were going to play with until thrown on the ice. The effect was the team overall played more cautiously defensively and with unexpected creativity in forward attacks. Habs were #1 in the NHL overall for half the season. Opposing teams had no counter to this strategy and home/away games effectively were identical in win/loss record.

My proposal is to try something similar with the Jets. I used a random picker website

And entered Jets forwards. This is what was generated as an example:

Ehlers
Little
Tanev

Copp
Perreault
Scheifele

Vaseline
Lowry
Wheeler

Connor
Laine
Roslovic

 

[Whileee]

Wheeler signing for 7m is a dream.

I think it depends on term and structure. He'd probably sign if it was spread over 6-7 years...

9m
8.5m
8.5m
7m
4.5m
4.5m

 

[Jetsfan79]

Laine - Scheif - Ehlers
Connor - Roslovic - Wheeler
Perreault - Little - open spot (Vesalainen, Dano. et al)
Copp - Lowry -Tanev.

Morrissey - Trouba
Myers/Niku - Buff
Kulikov/Chiarot/Morrow/Niku/Myers - Poolman

 

[Whileee]

Laine - Scheif - Ehlers
Connor - Roslovic - Wheeler
Perreault - Little - open spot (Vesalainen, Dano. et al)
Copp - Lowry -Tanev.

Morrissey - Trouba
Myers/Niku - Buff
Kulikov/Chiarot/Morrow/Niku/Myers - Poolman

I think Petan will factor into the lineup, probably ahead of Dano and Vesalainen.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

Are you trying to make me believe Copp on a line with Scheifele and Laine won’t work, cause if you are your doing a good job

Anyways, I know everybody expects to see the flashy guys like Connor aand Ehlers there but if we can spread the depth while making Laine and Scheifele(are most valuable skaters) more effective in there own zone(and probably overall as he’s give them more chances as the puck would be controlled by them more often).

 

[Trilliann]

Are you trying to make me believe Copp on a line with Scheifele and Laine won’t work, cause if you are your doing a good job

Anyways, I know everybody expects to see the flashy guys like Connor aand Ehlers there but if we can spread the depth while making Laine and Scheifele(are most valuable skaters) more effective in there own zone(and probably overall as he’s give them more chances as the puck would be controlled by them more often).

Haha, for some reason seeing that line written down made me think of that 1st goal, it was so nice.

 

[10Ducky10]

I think it depends on term and structure. He'd probably sign if it was spread over 6-7 years...

9m
8.5m
8.5m
7m
4.5m
4.5m

Then we'd have a 39 year old taking up 7m of our cap space and I really don't see him signing for an AAV of 7m and I don't think he should. He is an elite RWer.

 

[Whileee]

Then we'd have a 39 year old taking up 7m of our cap space and I really don't see him signing for an AAV of 7m and I don't think he should. He is an elite RWer.

If he won't sign for 6x7m then I can't see the Jets affording him beyond this season.

 

[10Ducky10]

If he won't sign for 6x7m then I can't see the Jets affording him beyond this season.

I agree. I think Chevy sticks to his guns and offers no more than a 5 year deal and that is one year too long.
4 x 8m if we can't get Stone.

 

[armyjoe]

Let's see what does actual stats show about our TOP-6 wingers. 5-on-5 GA/60, last season (regular + playoffs):

1. Laine 2.19
2. Wheeler 2.29
3. Connor 2.36
4. Ehlers 2.40

Could you pretty please elaborate more how "Laine had among the worst GA/60 stats on the team", when actual stats for comparable game state (5-on-5) shows the exact opposite?

And please note how Laine's most common linemate Ehlers has significantly worse GA/60 than Laine has. Just a series of coincidences, perhaps?

Edit: source is corsicahockey.com

You have to be able to explain to yourself how 40+ goalscorer can somehow be only your 8th best forward.

 

[voyageur]

Another lineup

Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Laine
Connor-Copp-Roslovic
Lemieux-Lowry-Tanev
Petan, Dano

Morrow-Buff
Morrissey-Trouba
Kulikov-Myers
Chiarot

 

[Whileee]

I handicapped the Jets 12+ spot roster forwards on the main board, and thought it might be of interest for discussion here, too.

***

Jets are still stacked with young forwards. They have 4-5 young forwards that will battle for the 12th roster spot, and first injury replacement... I'd rate them in the following order.

Nic Petan (another top season in the AHL, at a ppg clip. He's been working hard to improve his speed and I think he's got the inside track for 12th forward).

Marko Dano (a bit forgotten in the Jets system, but he was a very good producer as a 19-20 year old. His main issue has been fitness and quickness. If he comes to camp fit and quick, I think he could go straight into the lineup, or at worst the 1st injury replacement).

Brendan Lemieux (had a very good AHL season, with almost as many points per game as Appleton, and scored more. He's developed a lot of speed to go with his shot / scoring, and plays an aggressive physical game. Main concern is lack of discipline, but if he can control that he's going to have a shot at the roster. I think the coaches like his game).

Mason Appleton (a surprisingly strong AHL rookie season. Solid in all facets. Can fit many roles. If he develops a bit more pace in his game he's an NHL lock).

Kristian Vesalainen (huge season in the Finnish Elite League. He's a big, fast winger with a great shot and offensive talent. He's already big and physical enough for an NHL role. He could steal a roster spot as early as this season, and if not, he's a lock to be a key forward by the following season. Has some star potential).

 

[garret9]

Copp has been used for the same reason before.

That was a stop gap.

It worked, but it worked a lot in due to luck.

The Jets scored on 11% of their 5v5 shots when he was on that line, and the opponents scored on 4%... that type of fortune wasn't going to last forever.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

That was a stop gap.

It worked, but it worked a lot in due to luck.

The Jets scored on 11% of their 5v5 shots when he was on that line, and the opponents scored on 4%... that type of fortune wasn't going to last forever.

Are we sure it was all luck(obviously there was some luck) but maybe it was more skill and chemistry rather than luck itself.

 

[CaptainChef]

I think Petan will factor into the lineup, probably ahead of Dano and Vesalainen.

I'm for that as well. Biggest factor working against him is the 2-way contract he just signed. Doesn't shine in TC, they'll take their chances putting him on waivers & save a ton of salary.

 

[CaptainChef]

I'm for that as well. Biggest factor working against him is the 2-way contract he just signed. Doesn't shine in TC, they'll take their chances putting him on waivers & save a ton of salary.

That plus I can't see Appleton or Vesalainen really having that much of a chance coming right out of TC. I'd give Lemieux or maybe even Lipon a much better shot to make the roster out of TC than those guys unless they really light it up.

 

[KingBogo]

I handicapped the Jets 12+ spot roster forwards on the main board, and thought it might be of interest for discussion here, too.

***

Jets are still stacked with young forwards. They have 4-5 young forwards that will battle for the 12th roster spot, and first injury replacement... I'd rate them in the following order.

Nic Petan (another top season in the AHL, at a ppg clip. He's been working hard to improve his speed and I think he's got the inside track for 12th forward).

Marko Dano (a bit forgotten in the Jets system, but he was a very good producer as a 19-20 year old. His main issue has been fitness and quickness. If he comes to camp fit and quick, I think he could go straight into the lineup, or at worst the 1st injury replacement).

Brendan Lemieux (had a very good AHL season, with almost as many points per game as Appleton, and scored more. He's developed a lot of speed to go with his shot / scoring, and plays an aggressive physical game. Main concern is lack of discipline, but if he can control that he's going to have a shot at the roster. I think the coaches like his game).

Mason Appleton (a surprisingly strong AHL rookie season. Solid in all facets. Can fit many roles. If he develops a bit more pace in his game he's an NHL lock).

Kristian Vesalainen (huge season in the Finnish Elite League. He's a big, fast winger with a great shot and offensive talent. He's already big and physical enough for an NHL role. He could steal a roster spot as early as this season, and if not, he's a lock to be a key forward by the following season. Has some star potential).

This is a good breakdown and for the most part I agree. The real wild card is Vesalainen. It is hard to judge just how good he will be until we see him play on the smaller ice in either the AHL or NHL. I have this feeling it won't take him long to be compared with our top tier of young forwards (Laine, Ehlers, Connor, Roslovic) over the lower tiers (Copp, Dano, Petan, Lemieux).

 

[garret9]

Are we sure it was all luck(obviously there was some luck) but maybe it was more skill and chemistry rather than luck itself.

Yes. I'm about 95-99% sure.

The best sustainable results that are talent driven are sh and sv being different in the decimal points... not being twice the size of the other. IE: If it's talent you may score 0.6 goals per 100 shots more than your opponents, not 6 goals per 100 shots.

Chemistry that displays only in the two areas we expect luck to show up in (on-ice sh% where we know players have some control but do not expect to have that extreme of results and on-ice sv% where players have almost no control over [unless they actively started acting differently and stopped trying]) but not showing up at all in any of the other areas and those areas being where luck has far less of a grab (and also in some of those areas being the force that acts upon the non-luck portion of the on-ice percentages)... is not really chemistry.



You want to see a real example of chemistry, look at Petan's with and without Thorburn (and Hendricks) results. Petan does better away, just like everyone else does. What separates this from being a QoT impact is that:
1) the gap is larger than others get with and without Thorburn
2) Petan has a negative impact on the weaker players (Thorburn) and a positive impact on the stronger players
3) we have a strong logical mechanism that a playmaker requires someone to make plays to rather than just saying Petan is a unicorn and does good with some players

 

[Whileee]

That was a stop gap.

It worked, but it worked a lot in due to luck.

The Jets scored on 11% of their 5v5 shots when he was on that line, and the opponents scored on 4%... that type of fortune wasn't going to last forever.

Copp-Scheifele-Wheeler (2016/17, 2017/18, data from Corsica Hockey)

CF% 53.7 (relCF% +4.51)
GF% 66.7 (relGF% +16.1)
xGF% 58.5 (relxGF% +8.79)
PenT 3 PenD 6

With Ehlers and Laine he had a relCF% of +9.38 and an xGF% of 55.1 (relxGF% +3.49), penD +1.

Copp has been a positive in just about every metric, including xGF% on every line (50+ minutes) except with Tanev and Armia over the past two seasons.

He's a really solid player who can play with lots of different types of linemates.

 

[Hunter368]

I handicapped the Jets 12+ spot roster forwards on the main board, and thought it might be of interest for discussion here, too.

***

Jets are still stacked with young forwards. They have 4-5 young forwards that will battle for the 12th roster spot, and first injury replacement... I'd rate them in the following order.

Nic Petan (another top season in the AHL, at a ppg clip. He's been working hard to improve his speed and I think he's got the inside track for 12th forward).

Marko Dano (a bit forgotten in the Jets system, but he was a very good producer as a 19-20 year old. His main issue has been fitness and quickness. If he comes to camp fit and quick, I think he could go straight into the lineup, or at worst the 1st injury replacement).

Brendan Lemieux (had a very good AHL season, with almost as many points per game as Appleton, and scored more. He's developed a lot of speed to go with his shot / scoring, and plays an aggressive physical game. Main concern is lack of discipline, but if he can control that he's going to have a shot at the roster. I think the coaches like his game).

Mason Appleton (a surprisingly strong AHL rookie season. Solid in all facets. Can fit many roles. If he develops a bit more pace in his game he's an NHL lock).

Kristian Vesalainen (huge season in the Finnish Elite League. He's a big, fast winger with a great shot and offensive talent. He's already big and physical enough for an NHL role. He could steal a roster spot as early as this season, and if not, he's a lock to be a key forward by the following season. Has some star potential).

As always Whileee quality post and comments.

I’m very excited to see KV in our lineup eventually......this year or next no doubt.

 

[10Ducky10]

Lipon making the big club? Gimme a break...
Petan will no be waived because they know he will be claimed. The 23 man starting roster will probably have
Scheif
Little
Lowry
Roslo
Petan
MP
KC
Laine
Wheeler
Dano
Ehlers
Tanev
Copper

Trouba
JMo
Buff
Myers
Kuli
Morrow
Chiarot
Poolman

Helle
Brossoit?

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Laine/ Scheifele/ Wheeler
Ehlers/ Roslovic / Connor
Perrault/ Little / Petan
Tanev/ Lowry / Copp
Dano, Lemieux

Morrissey/ Trouba
Morrow / Buff
Kulikov / Myers
Chiarot

Petan is on a short leash, 10 games to stick.

Could see us making some moves as the season goes, if Poolman and Niku look good on the Moose, maybe move Kuli to free a spot up.

Vesalainen is the wild card who could force his way onto this team. He has shown a tendency to start slow So i could see him working his way into the first call up slot on the Moose, get a shot somewhere along the way and never look back.

 

[Halberdier]

That was a stop gap.

It worked, but it worked a lot in due to luck.

The Jets scored on 11% of their 5v5 shots when he was on that line, and the opponents scored on 4%... that type of fortune wasn't going to last forever.

Laine has been consistently breaking xGF (and therefore xGA too) model, let alone SH%.

As mentioned, not only was Ehlers-Copp-Laine doing great job, also Copp-Scheifele-Laine did work really well for the short stint they had together. Copp is a great complimentary player that can fit many roles.

The biggest reason ECL worked so well was that barring couple of games Little never played on same page than Ehlers + Laine, but at least Copp had zero ego issues to do so, and you could see how motivated Laine and also Ehlers were when given a chance. Also Copp understands simple things like it's a good idea to give Laine a shooting opportunity, which has been surprisingly hard idea to grasp for some players.

Not saying Copp is a TOP-6 player, but he could really be used as that to spread the talent and give more room for eg. Scheif + Laine duo. That's really quite old concept to have one less skilled guy with great physical play, work ethics as such with couple of star level players. Just for an example, Ville Nieminen played with Forsberg and Drury in 2001 when Colorado won the Stanley Cup.

Recent examples of the idea are using Hyman as a grinder for AM and using just like anybody with Crosby...

 

[kelsier]

You have to be able to explain to yourself how 40+ goalscorer can somehow be only your 8th best forward.

It would seem he has climbed up a couple of notches. According to some he was the tenth best at some point of last season.